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At least one person--me--voted for Trump in 2016 solely because Hillary Clinton repeatedly said she wanted to create a no-fly zone over Syria to shoot down Russian planes. (And implicitly let ISIS take over the whole country.)
There is certainly a case to be made against central or reserve banking and the industrialised world needs to do much better. And the central banks undeniably plaid a big role in the disasters of the 20th c. The trouble is that without them you can run into terrible trouble.
And the conspiracy theorists invariably get it all wrong, as do many critics. Central banks are instruments of state power.
IMHO informed, analytic, historically literate and balanced views on central banking are very rare. The bullshit on the subject is just incredible.
It would not be. The truths would be way too sensitive: the BIS, the old London Gold Pool, capital flight, the use of the Basel Accords to prop up the US bond market. There are apparently still some files on Bretton Woods that remain off limits to historians...my guess is that they may well relate to capital flight during the war. None of it is fit to be discussed in polite company.
Central banks are the great unacknowledged strategic assets of TurboAmerica.
I find Trump to be problematic in many ways, but he was the peace candidate in both 2016 and 2020 (and perhaps again in 2024). Because of that he got my vote twice.
that a populist (american) candidate is the peace candidate should tell you detached are the US elites from reality
the sad thing is that they can afford that because of how much the masses are detached from reality as well. We live in an unprecedented time of access to information, everything is at our fingertips, yet people still consume and regurgitate the bullshit as if it was 1920.
"Detached from reality" indeed. The Washington Blob and its Boomer loyalists have been growing crazier for awhile now, but as our host accurately pointed out, they suffered some kind of psychotic break in 2016 with the election of The Orange One. Now there is no consensus too insane for them to coalesce around. Vax Sars-2 out of existence! Gender-affirm every confused teenager! Regime-change Moscow!
That last one's a doozy. Pray to whatever gods may be that there is some version of this Zoki fellow plying reason along the Potomac.
In the 1840s the British press absolutely demanded a British military intervention against Russia in order to support (Islamic) Caucasian rebels in Dagestan on the theory that Russia would next attempt to invade India. How familiar does this sound?
"The mere presence of a British fleet in the Black Sea would... probably [result in] the retreat of Russia to her own snowy steppes.
"It is our duty, our obligation, by our rank and influence among nations, to procure, for the sake of humanity, a cessation of hostilities in Circassia. We should also endeavour to enlighten benighted inhabitants of that portion of the globe by imparting to them our laws and institutions which, however imperfect, are founded in wisdom, tested by experience and have, confessedly, a direct tendency to propel man onward in the path of civilization.
"This civilization and enlightenment will be best insured by establishing [with Circassia] commercial relations which would answer a twofold purpose of enriching them and, as they advance in industry and wealth, of rendering the barrier still more formidable against the inroads of the only European power [Russia] which seeks through its wanton aggression and insatiable ambition, to disturb the harmony of nations."
We Aussies can beat that absurdity. In the late 19th c. there was a scare campaign around the threat to the British Empire from the Russian Navy. The Colonial Office in London wanted something done, so too did the New South Welsh political class. So the taxpayers paid for infrastructure for artillery placed at the mouth of Sydney harbour. The gun placements (no idea what the technical term would have been) were pretty small. Shortly afterward Russia was defeated in the Russo-Japanese wars because the supply lines to the Russian Far East were already too long.
However, I assume that someone's brother-in-law did very well on the contract.
You Aussies are dumb as shit. For allowing yourselves to be treated like Cattle for the better part of the year and then allowing a military grade injection of poison into your bodies. Also having your guns confiscated because>>>????
Could not agree more. We are livestock. You have no idea how docile people in general have become.
Re vaccination, we had a choice of vaccines. There was a non-mRNA one available.
As for guns, a flourishing black market grew up after they began tightening the laws. Was offered the chance to buy a kalashnikov a few years back but turned it down because I am way too clumsy to use it and have no experience with guns.
I pressed the like button out of habit. I was preparing a comment and was going to ask what form the equity takes in reserve banking. Also, if it is joint stock, do half-Jews get b-class shares? The last central banker I ever saw in person was a very conservative Baptist and he did not look in the least bit Jewish to me.
and not based on hope, principles, or worse, lies intended to prolong the conflict and that have nothing to do with the best interests of Ukrainians.
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rather than based on hope, principles - or worse, lies - intended to prolong the conflict that have nothing to do with the best interests of Ukrainians.
If you have been following any of the shenanigans and diplomatic understanding agreed to, you will know what Zoki said was true and correct. Whether he changed his strips (Communist totalitarian soul) or just became a chameleon Im not sure. But at least he is expressing his views in a way in which I agree.
Whatever you say about communist Yugoslavia, you can't deny that Tito didn't kowtow to either Washington or Moscow. If he was a dictator, he was at least our dictator. The only thing that's changed is that today instead of the threat of secret service prisons, it is the threat of economic ruin wielded by Brussels and Washington. Which amounts to the fact that those affluent enough are exempt from any rule, while the rest can get fucked.
Wading into the politics of the Balkans is perhaps unwise and I freely admit my all but total ignorance of the subject, but I will risk it.
Milanovic sounds like a great politician. If he has picked up populist themes, that is well and good. He is reaching out to people on the other side of politics. That is pragmatic and reasonable. Furthermore, in the long run Croatia will benefit by repairing relationships with Serbia. Sooner or later a rapprochement has to happen.
Foreign policy (or the national interest) cannot be defined solely by the past or by tribal memories. At the moment the wider region is at risk of being dragged into a bloodbath. The Western ambassadors in Belgrade apparently just delivered an ultimatum to Serbia demanding that they recognise the independence of Kossovo and Metohija. This is both a calculated affront to Russia (because it contrasts with NATO's position on Donetsk, Lugansk and the Crimea) and an attempt to open up a new conflict, perhaps to misdirect attention from the imminent collapse of Ukraine or to complicate things for Moscow.
Finally, Milanovic may well be coordinating his approach with Hungary or at least responding to Orban's example. Historic ties between the two countries run deep and Croatia, Hungary and Serbia have a common interest in maintaining their independence...and the great threat to that comes from Brussels and TurboAmerica, not Moscow. Even if you disagree with him, Milanovic speaks for many (I hope). The wider region needs alternatives to the stooges of empire (whichever empire it is).
I must read more about the Western ambassadors in Belgrade. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, that's pretty much unforgiveable while tensions run this high.
It strips away all pretence of Putin as sole aggressor- or would, if Westerners ever found out, or cared.
> The session was scheduled after Vucic on January 20 met representatives of the EU and US who, he claims, told him that if Serbia does not accept the proposal, its European Union integration process will be halted and investments blocked.
The EU’s special representative for Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, told media in Belgrade after the meeting that he and his EU and US colleagues felt “encouraged” by the meeting.
The enduring hatred is ridiculous, you're right. A person from Zagreb has more in common with a person in Belgrade than with many other Croats. There are areas in which they speak 'Croatian' in such a way that you can't understand them at all if you're not from the same area. Anyway, I doubt there will be any rapprochement between our two nations, unless we are united by a common external threats. Climate migrants, or maybe aliens. There's too much people stuck living in the past, teaching their children the same. All that could move on, do move on, but to the west.
I could be wrong, and Niccolo may need to correct me. but my understanding of the dual monarchy/empire of Austro-Hungary after 1847 and the Kossuth matter, was that Hungary de facto was 'in charge' of what we now call Slovenia and Croatia, maybe Bosnia, northern Serbia (Vojvodina, remember Monica Seles, incidentally stabbed by a German!), and appointed The Ban of Croatia?.
Slovenia (except for a tiny corner in the northeast) was always under the Austrians. Northern Croatia was under the Hungarians. Dalmatia and Istria were also under the Austrians.
It's a new Silk Road...transex hormones and Netflix from the West are exchanged for manufactured goods from the Far East and energy from Russia.
If Hungary does not get gas from Russia, it would have to get it from TurboAmerica or Qatar. All available options involve complications and a degree of political dependence. Hungary is right to insist on its sovereign right to make its own choices and to prioritise the welfare of its own people.
ukraine is not a battle of democracy vs tyranny, kiev is run by oligarchs, even more blatantly than the eu and usa.
west ukraine is filled with bandera-ists. poland and rumania are the historic place for that region.
usa, eu and nato are not oath keepers, ukraine is planned to be the same as the soviets wanted cuba, that is ukraine armed to the teeth that jfk denied in 1962.
i am american, a retired military officer and i judge my country is on an immoral and dangerous path since moving nato east of the elbe!
Morality is besides the point. The expansion of NATO made no real military sense. It did not make the US safer. It did not add capacity. It just exposed the alliance to greater risks of unneccesary conflict and warped strategic thinking.
The profits to the defense contractors from NATO need to be compared to the costs to the military itself from warped priorities in procurement and weapons development. Costs that will almost certainly get paid in excess and preventable losses in combat in future.
The former Warsaw Pact countries have to normalise relations with Russia sooner rather than later. The US needs to reestablish the credibility of its diplomacy and the combat reliability of its forces.
As for Ukraine, the OUM-B and its offshoots are batshit crazy and very dangerous. Serious countries do not compromise themselves the way the US has done by sponsoring those sorts. Normalizing people that extreme guarantees disaster.
eu countries are unarmed to fight in ukraine, especially that their supply lines are 2000 miles long, and some f-16 parts come from california.
usa is worse its supply lines are 5000 miles long, and a lot of its ammunition stock has already been fired by ukraine.
as to graham, an air national guard lawyer officer: the 'on runway' support to launch XX f-16's requires hundreds of technical and logistics soldiers, and a supply chain that reaches to the usa for parts required for the next aircraft launch. to say nothing of the lake of mil spec fuel and mountain of iron aka ordnance.....
The war reveals the over-reliance on complex weapons, fragile supply chains, vulnerable logistics etc. And production is not on a scale comparable to Russia. The industrial weakness of the US is now exposed.
As for Europe, they are parade ground armies (the exceptions being France and Poland). The UK is using super-glue to hold the bolts on the pipes in the cooling system of their nuclear submarines. Germany is effectively demilitarized.
They also have a rich tradition of sponsoring revolutionaries too.
The West only sponsors troublemakers when they need a proxy. The West detests nationalists in power unless they can be used against a neighbour. Ideology is nothing. Control everything.
And the extreme right in Ukraine has a global or extra-national dimension...they are in league with nutters from across the world, especially North America and Scandinavia. Just like the originals in the 30s and 40s who were pan-European racists, not genuine nationalists.
Yes. The Christchurch shooter in New Zealand made a pilgrimage to Ukraine, and the Buffalo shooter in the United States had expressed his support of the various neofascists there.
These had to be quickly swept under the rug, as they sullied the narrative.
The trouble is that the rubbish going on Ukraine will corrupt the USA itself. Convergence (acknowledged or otherwise) is integral to global integration. And corrupt politicians and the intelligence communities on both sides are the perfect means to fortify this process.
I'd put it differently. Zelenskiy is an opportunist who fronts a puppet regime, a police state run by gangster politicians, extremists and the intelligence services on behalf of a consortium of foreign powers (America, EU, UK, Canada).
The ideology is a blend of historic ethnic grievances (a political and ideological legacy of one or two regions plus the Ukrainian diaspora), authoritarianism and PR bullshit. The delusions run deep and the regime has been played by the US. Genuine nationalists would have built up the Ukraine, not deindustrialise and depopulate it for NATO and the multinationals. Zelenskiy was a cynical choice by the kingmakers, who wanted a weakling in power. The Ukraine is a political project in a state fast approaching collapse.
Thanks. I find that unless people are explicit about what they mean by such terms, Left and Right are meaningless.
As far as the political class, the alignment is more about personal greed and geopolitics. The ultra-nationalist bloc in the Rada are 'Left' in that sense, but in no other. The Ukrainian Irish and Scottish nationalists hope to leverage the geopolitics of the day to their advantage. I would not bet a penny on their chances of success.
Given replacement level immigration, the loss of agency attendant on integration into the global economy under neoliberal rules and the 'Rainbow' pieties of their allies (masters in all but name), their nationalism is as quaint as green dye in the beer on Saint Patrick's day. In the case of Ukraine the absurdity is magnified to catastrophic proportions because the Banderists (Banderisty?) cannot admit that they are just like their forebears: utterly disposable puppets of alien masters reveling in opportunities to express hatreds that make them ever more defenceless against foreign exploitation.
In my opinion the only serious nationalists in the Western bloc are Orban, Netanyahu and the Japanese and these are very cautious. The rest are nationalist in their self-understanding and posturing only.
People keep confusing money with power, how American.
It's POWER , not money.
And it's the State Department, not the DOD that are Warmongers.
The MIC - which never quite existed even in WW2 - makes sh*t.
The combined profits of the big 5 Defense firms in 2020 were $286B, Walmart alone made $523B. All 5 defense firms combined make a little over half of what Walmart makes.
Strangely we never hear of the Walmart Industrial Complex.
Most of the $800B Defense budget goes to pay, healthcare, Housing, pensions -we're talking 60%+ of the Budget is personnel costs. It's so bad that the last 25 years the National Guard went from being Strategic Reserve and local disaster force to deploying every 2-5 years depending on Operational needs. Why?
Because the National Guard and Reserves aren't full time and cost a fraction of what the active forces personnel cost.
So one weekend a month and 2 weeks in the summer became for the last generation deployments every 3 years for a year - or 18 months - or in my case 2 years.
Honestly one can understand why people stare at the uniforms and the weapons, ignoring the suits and doing their homework on the actual facts, but at least one person, myself is becoming annoyed, Thanks for reading !
Thanks for that. It helps clarify things immensely. It all sounds like an iteration of FROM HERE TO ETERNITY scripted by accountants, with purely financial exploitation of those at the bottom front and centre. A post-industrial parody of military service as a form of late feudal enlistment of serfs so common in Central and Eastern Europe.
As I understand it, State is just the combination PR/Potemkin village for the IC, with visible crazies (neocons and neoliberals) fronting for the alpha villains. The ostensible authors of the foreign policies take the credit, but they get their instructions from planning units that prefer discretion. Much of the apparatus of policy making is pure theatre for the lost souls who find Washington fascinating.
I once read an article that claimed to utilise a source placed in a fairly highly level within the IC. The tone of the source's comments re the Pentagon leadership were quite contemptuous, not least because the generals were paid so very poorly compared to the senior executive of the private sector. I got the impression that the IC were super-corporate in worldview. The very embodiment of white collar privilege as it were.
I have heard this as well. Really, they start weeding them out beyond Captain.
I read two incidents from Desert Storm that involved warrior-captains responding to circumstances in ways that would have upset the larger narrative. One captain found a trusted Ba'athist officer, took all his insignia off, negotiated a complete stand-down of all regime loyalists for the whole city, and put him in a subordinate role reassuring his people and communicating their concerns to him. Saved dozens of Iraqis and his own soldiers' lives. Violated anti-Ba'athist directive. Same sort of thing tripped Patton up--we're getting rid of the only competent patriotic people.
They will have neither competence nor Patriotism, nor courage moral or physical.
Truth is they who get promoted game and work the system, and of the last generation this century more and more avoided combat as controversial and dangerous to one’s career.
“This isn’t the Hill to Die on”.
They never find that Hill, and IRL never see it. It is exactly Clown World, total reversal of values.
You see the same Uvalde Freeze don’t do anything, just freeze in the military and its grown to epidemic and possibly soon pandemic levels. Its a lack of confidence in leadership that gave you Uvalde, and Military increasingly same. I mean soldiers including elite forces freezing in combat-entire units. That’s leadership, or leaderless rather. No one wants to be the next Abu Gharib, or Chauvin.
1-2 cowards on them personally: entire unit freezes (and they do) that’s leadership, or rather JAG ROE paralysis -Rules of Engagement- which constantly change.
Geographic isolation and world’s reserve currency combined with a rich, fat, and detached from reality 🇺🇸 population allow a lot of slack. We’re running out.
"As for Ukraine, the OUM-B and its offshoots are batshit crazy and very dangerous. Serious countries do not compromise themselves the way the US has done by sponsoring those sorts. Normalizing people that extreme guarantees disaster."
The United States has form. To give the most infamous example, the same people who later became the Taliban were invited to the White House, and proclaimed by President Reagan himself to be "the moral equivalent of the Founding Fathers". That did not age well.
Then there were the neocons agitating for the United States to take on the role of being al Qaeda's (and ISIS') air force in Syria. What could ever have possibly gone wrong?
Or the lavishly documented track record of American support for the worst death squads in Latin America, not to mention the Khmer Rouge regime, both before and after 1979.
I have avoided Croatia like the plague in the past 30 years, less because of the war (though my family being on the other side of it didn’t exactly help), but because of their EU-/NATO puppetism. All of this has changed with Zoki, who doubled down on the most based views on COVID every time he opened his mouth. His refusal to take the road of least resistance, like his (awful) predecessor, is something to behold. I love going to back to Croatia in the summer now (my Croat-born husband has a house there), and I even turned down invites to Belgrade whose political leadership in my view cannot make up their mind between technocracy and parochialism. So I clap my hands to Zoki and hope he’ll be re-elected, so I can continue traveling to HR with a good conscience.
Orban is certainly playing a dangerous game, but the same is true of Germany. Their economy got wrecked by this, and the destruction of NordStream was a substantial loss. Kissinger's line about it being more dangerous to be a friend of America than an enemy comes to mind.
There are no good options for European leaders in this situation. Either support the US and watch as the war and its costs escalate, or oppose the US and feel the wrath of its economic sanctions.
Hungary is also extremely exposed. It has lost territory and population in its wars. It has a history of foreign invasion and occupation. Also a history of very stubborn independence. In the middle ages the King of Hungary was threatened by the passage of unruly Crusaders (from Germany) travelling down the Danube. He attacked and defeated them and sold the prisoners into slavery. Very pragmatic. Rational self-interest trumps all. Loyalty to any abstraction (the West, Christendom, democracy) is prioritising fantasies over reality.
Any real war would see Hungary reduced to rubble overnight. And the loss of any significant numbers of young males would push the Magyars closer to extinction.
Zoki is very much like one of the early voices against the Covid vaccine. He will be shouted down, and attacked by the globalists and the media. He might be deplatformed, and threatened by Blinken and other "diplomats" for breaking away from the rules based order. But as evidence piles of Ukraine corruption, Russian fighting capability, and the weakness of the West (how does the US spend $800 billion on the military, and have equipment that breaks down so much), people will start to wake up. When the media is so fanatical on pushing one narrative (like lockdowns), the backlash will come. [I don't know about Europe but that the anti Vax side has gained immensely in the US] It may take years. People who speak out could be arrested and punished with the loss of their jobs. But at least right now, the neocons and their corporate masters are not capable of totally suppressing alternative views.
The comparisons between Covid and Ukraine are interesting. I think the vaccine was appropriate for the vulnerable and the elderly. But the politicians and health figures (Fauci) and global corporate types pushed it on everyone, without showing any trial data, refused to talk about side effects, and harnessed Big Tech to censor any opposition. That caused far more resentment than a balanced "these are the facts, and we are explaining what needs to be done." Of course, a disease and geopolitics are different in scope, background factors, and impact. But both show that the elite prefer an absolutist approach - and can do nothing but escalate and escalate further. It also shows that as long as they have their metrics (stats that they are in charge of collecting and interpreting), nothing else matters. Plenty of scientists said there would be serious side effects on kids and cancer screenings. Fauci and his ilk did not care. Similarly, this Ukraine war will hurt European economy badly. None of the elected and non elected EU officials care.
The West has completely lost any ability for nuance. Three years into the pandemic, we still don't know what exactly is going on. Does the vaccine affect pregnant women? What is the real rate of cardiac issues for young men? And what exactly is causing these excess deaths, particularly in the 15-40 part of the population. It is possible that there are non Vax effects - cancer, mental health, drug use - these may explain part of it. But nobody in power wants to actually figure out why this is going on.
I am not a fan of Putin by any means. I want this war to end primarily because it is so many wasted lives, and for what benefit? The more neocons talk about breaking up Russia, the stronger Putin becomes. The first rally against the war will happen in late February in DC. It won't do anything of course - our elected officials don't care about what citizens say. But it is a sign that these feelings will build. The polls show Republicans turning against more funding to Ukraine. And while the hardcore liberal elites will never admit they are wrong, average people will say we can't pay our car loans, why are we sending billions to pay for a ruined economy. I don't know how fast this will happen. But it will, and then I suspect the media will try to memory hole this. Not sure they will succeed given the neocons will be pushing for war with China.
"how does the US spend $800 billion on the military, and have equipment that breaks down so much". They have something like 750 forward bases in 80 countries that all need to be funded. Also, the MIC doesn't make enough money from weapons that are rugged, effective, simple and cheap. No. You make money from building insanely complex "platforms" that require an overhaul if anyone so much as sneezes on them. The primary objective for US military hardware is that it cost umpty-squillions of dollars to develop and maintain. Who cares if they work?
No one in the Beltway cares but potential buyers from the Gulf to Latin America do. A lot of the narrative management over Ukraine is about the reputation of Brand America in the weapons market.
Even if you do not agree with their foreign policy or are (for whatever reason) inclined to sympathise more readily with the Croats, Bosniaks or Albanians, Serbia has a right to its territorial integrity and the Serbs deserve vastly better than to be regarded as delinquents or to be patronised for fitting awkwardly into the geopolitical ambitions of would-be overlords (Turkish, Austro-Hungarian, Nazi or American alike).
The Serbs are not failed Europeans or failed Americans...they are pretty much like Russians on their summer holidays.
Territorial integrity wears a bit thin when 90% of the population in Kosovo are non-Serbs. But anyhoo, what counts is who wins on the battlefield.
I had an uncle who served in the Ustaše (he didn't volunteer), and my father's uncle perished in a Russian concentration camp. Blood feuds and reprisals long after the fact are the European way.
The US is picking a fight for no other reason than they want trouble. And Russia is in no mood for sitting idle while Serbia is bombed again. IMO the Americans are playing with fire.
The old feuds are becoming increasingly less relevant now that the immediate danger is integration into a planetary system that wants to castrate your sons and fill the cities with displaced Afghans and the overflow from Africa. Europe's rivalries are irrelevant in a Eurabia or Nova Africa.
It all brings to mind Borges' observation about the Falklands War: it resembled a fight between two bald men over a comb.
What percentage of the population in Europe are immigrants? 5-6%?
In Canada, we're at 23%.
Bald Europeans will fight each other to the death; while immigrants make Europe their own. Europeans will once again leave Europe for greener pastures. Good luck with that.
Serbia has to play a delicate game as they seem predisposed to refusing to play the game (Djokovic is the ultimate example here, refusing the vaccine and refusing to be defeated, also pun intended) but Russia is too far away and too occupied to offer any overt assistance.
Djokovic's dignity and his persistence are exemplary. The Serbs are deservedly very proud of him. His example (even more than his success) is a rebuke to the petty and malicious treatment he has received from the scum in Tennis Australia and the government officials. I am an Australian and I am ashamed at the way Djokovic has been treated. There would be plenty who would agree with me on this.
I would not make any assumptions about Russia. If they helped out Assad they may very well do way more than that for Serbia. It would all depend on the Kremlin, their military plans and capacity. They have any number of options. They would certainly have some plans to deal with either another NATO attack on Serbia or a crisis in Kossovo and Metohija. How those plans may relate to Moscow's other plans or how either sets of plans are being updated is impossible to know.
Belgrade knows one thing: they cannot trust the West. Doing the West's bidding is national suicide. The geopolitics of the Drang Nach Osten today are the same as ever.
This has always been the case in Australia, to be frank. Many, many years ago an acquaintance of mine at the time attended an event with the Australian mens' water polo team and the Prime Minister (Hawke) was visibly subdued by the fact that the team were more impressed by his driver (apparently a celebrated athlete of some kind) than by him.
Reminds me of a school trip to Parliament Hill in Ottawa. We were in the bus, waiting for the next part of our visit, when Joe Clark walked by and was 'recognized'. We made such a chorus that he felt compelled to give us a wave. We were so naive.
Compared to the reptiles who inhabit Parliament today, Joe Clark was in another league.
It is very, very much a generational thing. An auntie of mine used to live near an ex-PM in Sydney (John Gorton) who had been PM in the 60s. He and his wife would take their place in the checkout queue with everyone else, no airs or graces whatsoever. Today it is very different. The money they can make after politics and the social ambitions of the political class transformed everything.
Feb 2, 2023·edited Feb 2, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo
He is speaking the truth. Politically, he is also playing the long game. This Ukraine business is going to end in tears for almost everyone, especially, sadly, the (surviving) Ukrainians. Westerners who are not near the carnage are still demanding maximalist outcomes at the very moment that Ukraine is being bled white in a rerun of Verdun on the steppes. Ukraine is a post-Christian, postmodern country with very low birth rates. The one thing they cannot lose, and survive, is their young men. And that is what they are losing. If the West and Ukraine, possibly with the outside world weighing in, had demanded a ceasefire after the initial Russian attack was so brilliantly and telegenically defeated, peace may have broken out. Instead, the USA and its proxies have decided to use Ukraine as the anvil to crush Russia. And it won't work. Russia is holding up despite sanctions, and despite its own military ineptitude. Quantity has a quality all its own. Russia is finding markets for its energy exports. It can make lots of shells. There is no reason to think it will collapse. It cannot lose young men, either, and survive. But it has five times as many as Ukraine. Ukraine will be stripped of an entire generational cohort, its future. The US regime, some parts of it, is already making noises about getting this thing resolved, see e.g. the recent Rand study. But the neocons like Nuland want the horror to go on forever, or until some epic outcome is achieved, maybe the Rainbow Flag flying over the Kremlin. This war has sunk to the level of an intramural Beltway bureaucratic power struggle, while people bleed into the dirt on the other side of the world. Tragic and horrible, and I can only pray for peace and an end to the slaughter.
Russians will win if Russians want to win-- but that is far from clear. It seems that a prolongation of the conflict is their plan. As a Serb (born in Croatia) and therefore a Russian nationalist, it was hard for me to admit to myself that Putin and his government did not care about Russia. On the Russian alternative media, there are rumors about agreements between Russian and Ukrainian forces, which seems to be supported by some facts, such as Russian forces' withdrawals from conquered territories. and their failure to attack the military supply lines.
I am not sure that it is wise to rely on any media at this stage. Russia's aim was to remove the threat of NATO using Ukraine as a base from which to attack Russia and to transform the country politically (remove the ultra-nationalists and CIA backed politicians). Territory per se is of secondary interest. Withdrawl itself means nothing. Do not read anything in it. It is a tactic. Withdrawing to preserve the lives of one's troops make sense. Land can be retaken. Soldiers cannot be resurrected. Tactical withdrawl has been a staple of war on the steppes since time immemorial. War on the steppes is not like war in a mountainous region. And the rivers make it much more complicated...fighting while crossing a flowing river (as opposed to a frozen one) is a nightmare and exceptionally costly in terms of life.
Russia did not attack with a large army, relative to the size of the country. They expected Kiev to negotiate, which it did but the West convinced Zelenskiiy not to sign the peace treaty negotiated in Istanbul in April 2022. They (Russia) had to hold key points of defence while preparing an army large enough to finish the job. Russia was not ready in 2022 for major war. They are now ready or very soon will be.
The Russians, especially Putin, are patient. Also, Putin halted progress on several occasions to give negotiators the opportunity to do their jobs. Probably against military advice.
The Russians are determined to win. Do not doubt their resolve. They either defeat the West in Ukraine or they fight the West on Russian soil. Wars are very confusing and the idiots (all countries have them) who think that they can guess the fast-evolving plans of the Stavka are fools. Just wait. Russia has killed between 125,000 and 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers and there are something like 300,000 to 400,000 serious casualties, half of whom are unable to return to service. Russia's losses are relatively small. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is 1:10. The Ukraine now rely heavily on foreigners (Poles, Rumanians and North Americans) to fight for them.
Finally, Russia still has to be cautious because NATO may panic, now that its proxy army is in the process of being destroyed.
The Russians are so far playing the same slow game they played in Syria, 2d Chechen War, for that matter since the Slavs drove out the Mongols.
There's no rush, in particular as the Ukrainians basically commit mass suicide by enemy artillery and Russian encirclement with a dismal consistency.
There is simply no need to rush for the Russians.
The tactical diplomacy you refer to above Sir between Russian and Ukrainian forces is consistent in modern times for Russia again in Syria and 2d Chechen war and indeed is ancient to warfare.
Total war and unconditional surrender are among modernity's more heinous and idiotic policies.
See "Golden Bridge" in 18th century warfare: You're beat, but I want to spare my soldiers and possibly yours , withdraw in this direction and we'll let you.
Say what you will about Putin and his methods, I think he comes across very patriotic. I would say he cares far more about Russia than any Western leader cares about their country and the citizens they're supposed to represent. This is absolutely undeniable when westerns such as Baerbock explicitly say their voters opinions are irrelevant.
Instead of building their economy, the Russian government is planning to create central bank digital currency based on electronic surveillance and control. What a disgrace!
The Russian gov't is encouraging citizens to buy precious metals. They changed the tax system to incentivise this.
It is far from clear what a digital currency in Russia would involve. Given the high level of tech literacy and STEM skills it would be difficult for the gov't to fool anyone with a surveillance-focused system. My guess is that they may well develop something like a dual system. A single ruble, but with regular currency and a digital version for settlement and exchange with overseas partners who are developing their own digital currencies. It is about interoperability with overseas systems. Just a guess.
Putin is the first Russian leader ever who respects the Russian people. His predecessors saw them only as a means towards one end or another. He is undeniably a good and decent man who is doing the best that he can for his people.
In the West, by contrast, we are governed by a political class who despise and fear us and are replacing us as fast as they can. They have no loyalties except to themselves.
I suspect the truth is some combination of both. As Sonja pointed out, Russia is adapting the same WEF biotech and CBDC agenda we're seeing pushed in the rest of the world.
I'd be careful about making any assumptions on those areas.
Putin is a champion of organic farming and gardening (meaning urban households growing some of their own food in allotments). Russia said no to GMO food. During COVID they developed their own vaccine (Sputnik) from an existing anti-influenza vaccine and the Russian defence people have been releasing evidence of Western Big Pharma using labs in the Ukraine to do gain of function on lethal pathogens (as well as reseach on the genome of local Russians). There is no way on earth Russia is ever going to trust the West on biotech. None.
As for banking, Russia's banking system is separate from the Western one. The ties between the Russian central bank (a real fifth column of Western influence) and the West are being slowly but deliberately severed. Anything digital may well follow or complement Chinese practice in one way or another. The whole issue of settlement and exchange via digital platforms is very complicated but I doubt that Russia is going to allow itself to be yoked to anything that is being pimped by the WEF.
Yes but everyone is centralizing digital money and its in some ways digital money like all money must be accounted for, and the state exists to protect its citizens, including from their own folly. That the gamblers won’t bring us all down has been disproven so many times as to be risible.
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Excellent breakdown Niccolo.
At least one person--me--voted for Trump in 2016 solely because Hillary Clinton repeatedly said she wanted to create a no-fly zone over Syria to shoot down Russian planes. (And implicitly let ISIS take over the whole country.)
He presents one point of view. I'm interested in opposing views, from Croatia.
Just don't be hysterical. That's an automatic defeat.
There is certainly a case to be made against central or reserve banking and the industrialised world needs to do much better. And the central banks undeniably plaid a big role in the disasters of the 20th c. The trouble is that without them you can run into terrible trouble.
And the conspiracy theorists invariably get it all wrong, as do many critics. Central banks are instruments of state power.
IMHO informed, analytic, historically literate and balanced views on central banking are very rare. The bullshit on the subject is just incredible.
Central banking is not even studied at economics departments of many universities.
It would not be. The truths would be way too sensitive: the BIS, the old London Gold Pool, capital flight, the use of the Basel Accords to prop up the US bond market. There are apparently still some files on Bretton Woods that remain off limits to historians...my guess is that they may well relate to capital flight during the war. None of it is fit to be discussed in polite company.
Central banks are the great unacknowledged strategic assets of TurboAmerica.
I find Trump to be problematic in many ways, but he was the peace candidate in both 2016 and 2020 (and perhaps again in 2024). Because of that he got my vote twice.
that a populist (american) candidate is the peace candidate should tell you detached are the US elites from reality
the sad thing is that they can afford that because of how much the masses are detached from reality as well. We live in an unprecedented time of access to information, everything is at our fingertips, yet people still consume and regurgitate the bullshit as if it was 1920.
"Detached from reality" indeed. The Washington Blob and its Boomer loyalists have been growing crazier for awhile now, but as our host accurately pointed out, they suffered some kind of psychotic break in 2016 with the election of The Orange One. Now there is no consensus too insane for them to coalesce around. Vax Sars-2 out of existence! Gender-affirm every confused teenager! Regime-change Moscow!
That last one's a doozy. Pray to whatever gods may be that there is some version of this Zoki fellow plying reason along the Potomac.
He's the only US president in many years not to start a new war
Now he knows how Joan of Arc felt!
In the 1840s the British press absolutely demanded a British military intervention against Russia in order to support (Islamic) Caucasian rebels in Dagestan on the theory that Russia would next attempt to invade India. How familiar does this sound?
"The mere presence of a British fleet in the Black Sea would... probably [result in] the retreat of Russia to her own snowy steppes.
"It is our duty, our obligation, by our rank and influence among nations, to procure, for the sake of humanity, a cessation of hostilities in Circassia. We should also endeavour to enlighten benighted inhabitants of that portion of the globe by imparting to them our laws and institutions which, however imperfect, are founded in wisdom, tested by experience and have, confessedly, a direct tendency to propel man onward in the path of civilization.
"This civilization and enlightenment will be best insured by establishing [with Circassia] commercial relations which would answer a twofold purpose of enriching them and, as they advance in industry and wealth, of rendering the barrier still more formidable against the inroads of the only European power [Russia] which seeks through its wanton aggression and insatiable ambition, to disturb the harmony of nations."
We Aussies can beat that absurdity. In the late 19th c. there was a scare campaign around the threat to the British Empire from the Russian Navy. The Colonial Office in London wanted something done, so too did the New South Welsh political class. So the taxpayers paid for infrastructure for artillery placed at the mouth of Sydney harbour. The gun placements (no idea what the technical term would have been) were pretty small. Shortly afterward Russia was defeated in the Russo-Japanese wars because the supply lines to the Russian Far East were already too long.
However, I assume that someone's brother-in-law did very well on the contract.
You Aussies are dumb as shit. For allowing yourselves to be treated like Cattle for the better part of the year and then allowing a military grade injection of poison into your bodies. Also having your guns confiscated because>>>????
Could not agree more. We are livestock. You have no idea how docile people in general have become.
Re vaccination, we had a choice of vaccines. There was a non-mRNA one available.
As for guns, a flourishing black market grew up after they began tightening the laws. Was offered the chance to buy a kalashnikov a few years back but turned it down because I am way too clumsy to use it and have no experience with guns.
I pressed the like button out of habit. I was preparing a comment and was going to ask what form the equity takes in reserve banking. Also, if it is joint stock, do half-Jews get b-class shares? The last central banker I ever saw in person was a very conservative Baptist and he did not look in the least bit Jewish to me.
as a hole --> as a whole
and not based on hope, principles, or worse, lies intended to prolong the conflict and that have nothing to do with the best interests of Ukrainians.
-->
rather than based on hope, principles - or worse, lies - intended to prolong the conflict that have nothing to do with the best interests of Ukrainians.
Thank you.
If you have been following any of the shenanigans and diplomatic understanding agreed to, you will know what Zoki said was true and correct. Whether he changed his strips (Communist totalitarian soul) or just became a chameleon Im not sure. But at least he is expressing his views in a way in which I agree.
Whatever you say about communist Yugoslavia, you can't deny that Tito didn't kowtow to either Washington or Moscow. If he was a dictator, he was at least our dictator. The only thing that's changed is that today instead of the threat of secret service prisons, it is the threat of economic ruin wielded by Brussels and Washington. Which amounts to the fact that those affluent enough are exempt from any rule, while the rest can get fucked.
Wading into the politics of the Balkans is perhaps unwise and I freely admit my all but total ignorance of the subject, but I will risk it.
Milanovic sounds like a great politician. If he has picked up populist themes, that is well and good. He is reaching out to people on the other side of politics. That is pragmatic and reasonable. Furthermore, in the long run Croatia will benefit by repairing relationships with Serbia. Sooner or later a rapprochement has to happen.
Foreign policy (or the national interest) cannot be defined solely by the past or by tribal memories. At the moment the wider region is at risk of being dragged into a bloodbath. The Western ambassadors in Belgrade apparently just delivered an ultimatum to Serbia demanding that they recognise the independence of Kossovo and Metohija. This is both a calculated affront to Russia (because it contrasts with NATO's position on Donetsk, Lugansk and the Crimea) and an attempt to open up a new conflict, perhaps to misdirect attention from the imminent collapse of Ukraine or to complicate things for Moscow.
Finally, Milanovic may well be coordinating his approach with Hungary or at least responding to Orban's example. Historic ties between the two countries run deep and Croatia, Hungary and Serbia have a common interest in maintaining their independence...and the great threat to that comes from Brussels and TurboAmerica, not Moscow. Even if you disagree with him, Milanovic speaks for many (I hope). The wider region needs alternatives to the stooges of empire (whichever empire it is).
I must read more about the Western ambassadors in Belgrade. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, that's pretty much unforgiveable while tensions run this high.
It strips away all pretence of Putin as sole aggressor- or would, if Westerners ever found out, or cared.
I think this is it
https://balkaninsight.com/2023/02/02/serbian-parliamentarians-clash-in-tense-debate-on-kosovo/
> The session was scheduled after Vucic on January 20 met representatives of the EU and US who, he claims, told him that if Serbia does not accept the proposal, its European Union integration process will be halted and investments blocked.
The EU’s special representative for Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, told media in Belgrade after the meeting that he and his EU and US colleagues felt “encouraged” by the meeting.
Thanks
I found out about it in the article below, 6 paras down.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/01/28/going-for-the-kill-in-kosovo/
Rather less measured than the other article from Balkan Insight.
I don't know much about Balkan politics but I recognise absolute scenes
The enduring hatred is ridiculous, you're right. A person from Zagreb has more in common with a person in Belgrade than with many other Croats. There are areas in which they speak 'Croatian' in such a way that you can't understand them at all if you're not from the same area. Anyway, I doubt there will be any rapprochement between our two nations, unless we are united by a common external threats. Climate migrants, or maybe aliens. There's too much people stuck living in the past, teaching their children the same. All that could move on, do move on, but to the west.
I could be wrong, and Niccolo may need to correct me. but my understanding of the dual monarchy/empire of Austro-Hungary after 1847 and the Kossuth matter, was that Hungary de facto was 'in charge' of what we now call Slovenia and Croatia, maybe Bosnia, northern Serbia (Vojvodina, remember Monica Seles, incidentally stabbed by a German!), and appointed The Ban of Croatia?.
Slovenia (except for a tiny corner in the northeast) was always under the Austrians. Northern Croatia was under the Hungarians. Dalmatia and Istria were also under the Austrians.
"Democracy comes from the West, natural gas comes from the East".
Orban's stance in 2008 and Orban's stance today.
It's a new Silk Road...transex hormones and Netflix from the West are exchanged for manufactured goods from the Far East and energy from Russia.
If Hungary does not get gas from Russia, it would have to get it from TurboAmerica or Qatar. All available options involve complications and a degree of political dependence. Hungary is right to insist on its sovereign right to make its own choices and to prioritise the welfare of its own people.
i like what zoki says!
ukraine is not a battle of democracy vs tyranny, kiev is run by oligarchs, even more blatantly than the eu and usa.
west ukraine is filled with bandera-ists. poland and rumania are the historic place for that region.
usa, eu and nato are not oath keepers, ukraine is planned to be the same as the soviets wanted cuba, that is ukraine armed to the teeth that jfk denied in 1962.
i am american, a retired military officer and i judge my country is on an immoral and dangerous path since moving nato east of the elbe!
That makes 2 of us.
Watch this first 10 mins.
https://rumble.com/v281edg-tucker-carlson-tonight-2123-fox-breaking-news-february-1-2023.html
i suggest that a nuclear exchange would expand to billions dying and the lucky ones would be those within the blast zone killed right out!
Morality is besides the point. The expansion of NATO made no real military sense. It did not make the US safer. It did not add capacity. It just exposed the alliance to greater risks of unneccesary conflict and warped strategic thinking.
The profits to the defense contractors from NATO need to be compared to the costs to the military itself from warped priorities in procurement and weapons development. Costs that will almost certainly get paid in excess and preventable losses in combat in future.
The former Warsaw Pact countries have to normalise relations with Russia sooner rather than later. The US needs to reestablish the credibility of its diplomacy and the combat reliability of its forces.
As for Ukraine, the OUM-B and its offshoots are batshit crazy and very dangerous. Serious countries do not compromise themselves the way the US has done by sponsoring those sorts. Normalizing people that extreme guarantees disaster.
eu countries are unarmed to fight in ukraine, especially that their supply lines are 2000 miles long, and some f-16 parts come from california.
usa is worse its supply lines are 5000 miles long, and a lot of its ammunition stock has already been fired by ukraine.
as to graham, an air national guard lawyer officer: the 'on runway' support to launch XX f-16's requires hundreds of technical and logistics soldiers, and a supply chain that reaches to the usa for parts required for the next aircraft launch. to say nothing of the lake of mil spec fuel and mountain of iron aka ordnance.....
The war reveals the over-reliance on complex weapons, fragile supply chains, vulnerable logistics etc. And production is not on a scale comparable to Russia. The industrial weakness of the US is now exposed.
As for Europe, they are parade ground armies (the exceptions being France and Poland). The UK is using super-glue to hold the bolts on the pipes in the cooling system of their nuclear submarines. Germany is effectively demilitarized.
The West has a rich tradition of sponsoring right wing nationalists. This is nothing new.
They also have a rich tradition of sponsoring revolutionaries too.
The West only sponsors troublemakers when they need a proxy. The West detests nationalists in power unless they can be used against a neighbour. Ideology is nothing. Control everything.
And the extreme right in Ukraine has a global or extra-national dimension...they are in league with nutters from across the world, especially North America and Scandinavia. Just like the originals in the 30s and 40s who were pan-European racists, not genuine nationalists.
Yes. The Christchurch shooter in New Zealand made a pilgrimage to Ukraine, and the Buffalo shooter in the United States had expressed his support of the various neofascists there.
These had to be quickly swept under the rug, as they sullied the narrative.
usa has no qualms propping the corrupt, as long as they obey the rules based dominion of empire.
The trouble is that the rubbish going on Ukraine will corrupt the USA itself. Convergence (acknowledged or otherwise) is integral to global integration. And corrupt politicians and the intelligence communities on both sides are the perfect means to fortify this process.
I'd call the Zelensky government left-wing nationalists.
I'd put it differently. Zelenskiy is an opportunist who fronts a puppet regime, a police state run by gangster politicians, extremists and the intelligence services on behalf of a consortium of foreign powers (America, EU, UK, Canada).
The ideology is a blend of historic ethnic grievances (a political and ideological legacy of one or two regions plus the Ukrainian diaspora), authoritarianism and PR bullshit. The delusions run deep and the regime has been played by the US. Genuine nationalists would have built up the Ukraine, not deindustrialise and depopulate it for NATO and the multinationals. Zelenskiy was a cynical choice by the kingmakers, who wanted a weakling in power. The Ukraine is a political project in a state fast approaching collapse.
Why left-wing? I don't understand.
They're nationalist but they want to align with the liberal powers: US/NATO and EU. Like Ireland and Scotland.
Thanks. I find that unless people are explicit about what they mean by such terms, Left and Right are meaningless.
As far as the political class, the alignment is more about personal greed and geopolitics. The ultra-nationalist bloc in the Rada are 'Left' in that sense, but in no other. The Ukrainian Irish and Scottish nationalists hope to leverage the geopolitics of the day to their advantage. I would not bet a penny on their chances of success.
Given replacement level immigration, the loss of agency attendant on integration into the global economy under neoliberal rules and the 'Rainbow' pieties of their allies (masters in all but name), their nationalism is as quaint as green dye in the beer on Saint Patrick's day. In the case of Ukraine the absurdity is magnified to catastrophic proportions because the Banderists (Banderisty?) cannot admit that they are just like their forebears: utterly disposable puppets of alien masters reveling in opportunities to express hatreds that make them ever more defenceless against foreign exploitation.
In my opinion the only serious nationalists in the Western bloc are Orban, Netanyahu and the Japanese and these are very cautious. The rest are nationalist in their self-understanding and posturing only.
People keep confusing money with power, how American.
It's POWER , not money.
And it's the State Department, not the DOD that are Warmongers.
The MIC - which never quite existed even in WW2 - makes sh*t.
The combined profits of the big 5 Defense firms in 2020 were $286B, Walmart alone made $523B. All 5 defense firms combined make a little over half of what Walmart makes.
Strangely we never hear of the Walmart Industrial Complex.
Most of the $800B Defense budget goes to pay, healthcare, Housing, pensions -we're talking 60%+ of the Budget is personnel costs. It's so bad that the last 25 years the National Guard went from being Strategic Reserve and local disaster force to deploying every 2-5 years depending on Operational needs. Why?
Because the National Guard and Reserves aren't full time and cost a fraction of what the active forces personnel cost.
So one weekend a month and 2 weeks in the summer became for the last generation deployments every 3 years for a year - or 18 months - or in my case 2 years.
Honestly one can understand why people stare at the uniforms and the weapons, ignoring the suits and doing their homework on the actual facts, but at least one person, myself is becoming annoyed, Thanks for reading !
Thanks for that. It helps clarify things immensely. It all sounds like an iteration of FROM HERE TO ETERNITY scripted by accountants, with purely financial exploitation of those at the bottom front and centre. A post-industrial parody of military service as a form of late feudal enlistment of serfs so common in Central and Eastern Europe.
As I understand it, State is just the combination PR/Potemkin village for the IC, with visible crazies (neocons and neoliberals) fronting for the alpha villains. The ostensible authors of the foreign policies take the credit, but they get their instructions from planning units that prefer discretion. Much of the apparatus of policy making is pure theatre for the lost souls who find Washington fascinating.
I once read an article that claimed to utilise a source placed in a fairly highly level within the IC. The tone of the source's comments re the Pentagon leadership were quite contemptuous, not least because the generals were paid so very poorly compared to the senior executive of the private sector. I got the impression that the IC were super-corporate in worldview. The very embodiment of white collar privilege as it were.
Yes the IC, Finance, State Dept is where the Ivy’s concentrate power. Which would be acceptable, even desirable if they weren’t insane.
No Warrior advances past Colonel.
Instead of a field marshal's baton, the rucksacks of the ambitious are stuffed with CVs.
"No Warrior advances past Colonel."
I have heard this as well. Really, they start weeding them out beyond Captain.
I read two incidents from Desert Storm that involved warrior-captains responding to circumstances in ways that would have upset the larger narrative. One captain found a trusted Ba'athist officer, took all his insignia off, negotiated a complete stand-down of all regime loyalists for the whole city, and put him in a subordinate role reassuring his people and communicating their concerns to him. Saved dozens of Iraqis and his own soldiers' lives. Violated anti-Ba'athist directive. Same sort of thing tripped Patton up--we're getting rid of the only competent patriotic people.
They will have neither competence nor Patriotism, nor courage moral or physical.
Truth is they who get promoted game and work the system, and of the last generation this century more and more avoided combat as controversial and dangerous to one’s career.
“This isn’t the Hill to Die on”.
They never find that Hill, and IRL never see it. It is exactly Clown World, total reversal of values.
You see the same Uvalde Freeze don’t do anything, just freeze in the military and its grown to epidemic and possibly soon pandemic levels. Its a lack of confidence in leadership that gave you Uvalde, and Military increasingly same. I mean soldiers including elite forces freezing in combat-entire units. That’s leadership, or leaderless rather. No one wants to be the next Abu Gharib, or Chauvin.
1-2 cowards on them personally: entire unit freezes (and they do) that’s leadership, or rather JAG ROE paralysis -Rules of Engagement- which constantly change.
Geographic isolation and world’s reserve currency combined with a rich, fat, and detached from reality 🇺🇸 population allow a lot of slack. We’re running out.
"As for Ukraine, the OUM-B and its offshoots are batshit crazy and very dangerous. Serious countries do not compromise themselves the way the US has done by sponsoring those sorts. Normalizing people that extreme guarantees disaster."
The United States has form. To give the most infamous example, the same people who later became the Taliban were invited to the White House, and proclaimed by President Reagan himself to be "the moral equivalent of the Founding Fathers". That did not age well.
Then there were the neocons agitating for the United States to take on the role of being al Qaeda's (and ISIS') air force in Syria. What could ever have possibly gone wrong?
Or the lavishly documented track record of American support for the worst death squads in Latin America, not to mention the Khmer Rouge regime, both before and after 1979.
I have avoided Croatia like the plague in the past 30 years, less because of the war (though my family being on the other side of it didn’t exactly help), but because of their EU-/NATO puppetism. All of this has changed with Zoki, who doubled down on the most based views on COVID every time he opened his mouth. His refusal to take the road of least resistance, like his (awful) predecessor, is something to behold. I love going to back to Croatia in the summer now (my Croat-born husband has a house there), and I even turned down invites to Belgrade whose political leadership in my view cannot make up their mind between technocracy and parochialism. So I clap my hands to Zoki and hope he’ll be re-elected, so I can continue traveling to HR with a good conscience.
Ergo the Croatian people are smart to have taken a different path.
Orban is certainly playing a dangerous game, but the same is true of Germany. Their economy got wrecked by this, and the destruction of NordStream was a substantial loss. Kissinger's line about it being more dangerous to be a friend of America than an enemy comes to mind.
There are no good options for European leaders in this situation. Either support the US and watch as the war and its costs escalate, or oppose the US and feel the wrath of its economic sanctions.
Hungary is also extremely exposed. It has lost territory and population in its wars. It has a history of foreign invasion and occupation. Also a history of very stubborn independence. In the middle ages the King of Hungary was threatened by the passage of unruly Crusaders (from Germany) travelling down the Danube. He attacked and defeated them and sold the prisoners into slavery. Very pragmatic. Rational self-interest trumps all. Loyalty to any abstraction (the West, Christendom, democracy) is prioritising fantasies over reality.
Any real war would see Hungary reduced to rubble overnight. And the loss of any significant numbers of young males would push the Magyars closer to extinction.
Good article Niccolo. I’ve been following what President Milanovic has been saying and it’s valuable to hear your assessment.
Zoki is very much like one of the early voices against the Covid vaccine. He will be shouted down, and attacked by the globalists and the media. He might be deplatformed, and threatened by Blinken and other "diplomats" for breaking away from the rules based order. But as evidence piles of Ukraine corruption, Russian fighting capability, and the weakness of the West (how does the US spend $800 billion on the military, and have equipment that breaks down so much), people will start to wake up. When the media is so fanatical on pushing one narrative (like lockdowns), the backlash will come. [I don't know about Europe but that the anti Vax side has gained immensely in the US] It may take years. People who speak out could be arrested and punished with the loss of their jobs. But at least right now, the neocons and their corporate masters are not capable of totally suppressing alternative views.
The comparisons between Covid and Ukraine are interesting. I think the vaccine was appropriate for the vulnerable and the elderly. But the politicians and health figures (Fauci) and global corporate types pushed it on everyone, without showing any trial data, refused to talk about side effects, and harnessed Big Tech to censor any opposition. That caused far more resentment than a balanced "these are the facts, and we are explaining what needs to be done." Of course, a disease and geopolitics are different in scope, background factors, and impact. But both show that the elite prefer an absolutist approach - and can do nothing but escalate and escalate further. It also shows that as long as they have their metrics (stats that they are in charge of collecting and interpreting), nothing else matters. Plenty of scientists said there would be serious side effects on kids and cancer screenings. Fauci and his ilk did not care. Similarly, this Ukraine war will hurt European economy badly. None of the elected and non elected EU officials care.
The West has completely lost any ability for nuance. Three years into the pandemic, we still don't know what exactly is going on. Does the vaccine affect pregnant women? What is the real rate of cardiac issues for young men? And what exactly is causing these excess deaths, particularly in the 15-40 part of the population. It is possible that there are non Vax effects - cancer, mental health, drug use - these may explain part of it. But nobody in power wants to actually figure out why this is going on.
I am not a fan of Putin by any means. I want this war to end primarily because it is so many wasted lives, and for what benefit? The more neocons talk about breaking up Russia, the stronger Putin becomes. The first rally against the war will happen in late February in DC. It won't do anything of course - our elected officials don't care about what citizens say. But it is a sign that these feelings will build. The polls show Republicans turning against more funding to Ukraine. And while the hardcore liberal elites will never admit they are wrong, average people will say we can't pay our car loans, why are we sending billions to pay for a ruined economy. I don't know how fast this will happen. But it will, and then I suspect the media will try to memory hole this. Not sure they will succeed given the neocons will be pushing for war with China.
"how does the US spend $800 billion on the military, and have equipment that breaks down so much". They have something like 750 forward bases in 80 countries that all need to be funded. Also, the MIC doesn't make enough money from weapons that are rugged, effective, simple and cheap. No. You make money from building insanely complex "platforms" that require an overhaul if anyone so much as sneezes on them. The primary objective for US military hardware is that it cost umpty-squillions of dollars to develop and maintain. Who cares if they work?
No one in the Beltway cares but potential buyers from the Gulf to Latin America do. A lot of the narrative management over Ukraine is about the reputation of Brand America in the weapons market.
Serbs are going to cause trouble. For Kosovo, for Croatia, for Russia, for Europe.
Or have they reformed?
What trouble can they cause in Croatia? The rest deserve instability for flying American flags for 20 years like slaves.
Even if you do not agree with their foreign policy or are (for whatever reason) inclined to sympathise more readily with the Croats, Bosniaks or Albanians, Serbia has a right to its territorial integrity and the Serbs deserve vastly better than to be regarded as delinquents or to be patronised for fitting awkwardly into the geopolitical ambitions of would-be overlords (Turkish, Austro-Hungarian, Nazi or American alike).
The Serbs are not failed Europeans or failed Americans...they are pretty much like Russians on their summer holidays.
Territorial integrity wears a bit thin when 90% of the population in Kosovo are non-Serbs. But anyhoo, what counts is who wins on the battlefield.
I had an uncle who served in the Ustaše (he didn't volunteer), and my father's uncle perished in a Russian concentration camp. Blood feuds and reprisals long after the fact are the European way.
The US is picking a fight for no other reason than they want trouble. And Russia is in no mood for sitting idle while Serbia is bombed again. IMO the Americans are playing with fire.
The old feuds are becoming increasingly less relevant now that the immediate danger is integration into a planetary system that wants to castrate your sons and fill the cities with displaced Afghans and the overflow from Africa. Europe's rivalries are irrelevant in a Eurabia or Nova Africa.
It all brings to mind Borges' observation about the Falklands War: it resembled a fight between two bald men over a comb.
What percentage of the population in Europe are immigrants? 5-6%?
In Canada, we're at 23%.
Bald Europeans will fight each other to the death; while immigrants make Europe their own. Europeans will once again leave Europe for greener pastures. Good luck with that.
Serbia has to play a delicate game as they seem predisposed to refusing to play the game (Djokovic is the ultimate example here, refusing the vaccine and refusing to be defeated, also pun intended) but Russia is too far away and too occupied to offer any overt assistance.
Djokovic's dignity and his persistence are exemplary. The Serbs are deservedly very proud of him. His example (even more than his success) is a rebuke to the petty and malicious treatment he has received from the scum in Tennis Australia and the government officials. I am an Australian and I am ashamed at the way Djokovic has been treated. There would be plenty who would agree with me on this.
I would not make any assumptions about Russia. If they helped out Assad they may very well do way more than that for Serbia. It would all depend on the Kremlin, their military plans and capacity. They have any number of options. They would certainly have some plans to deal with either another NATO attack on Serbia or a crisis in Kossovo and Metohija. How those plans may relate to Moscow's other plans or how either sets of plans are being updated is impossible to know.
Belgrade knows one thing: they cannot trust the West. Doing the West's bidding is national suicide. The geopolitics of the Drang Nach Osten today are the same as ever.
I've more respect for tennis players than opportunistic politicians.
This has always been the case in Australia, to be frank. Many, many years ago an acquaintance of mine at the time attended an event with the Australian mens' water polo team and the Prime Minister (Hawke) was visibly subdued by the fact that the team were more impressed by his driver (apparently a celebrated athlete of some kind) than by him.
Reminds me of a school trip to Parliament Hill in Ottawa. We were in the bus, waiting for the next part of our visit, when Joe Clark walked by and was 'recognized'. We made such a chorus that he felt compelled to give us a wave. We were so naive.
Compared to the reptiles who inhabit Parliament today, Joe Clark was in another league.
It is very, very much a generational thing. An auntie of mine used to live near an ex-PM in Sydney (John Gorton) who had been PM in the 60s. He and his wife would take their place in the checkout queue with everyone else, no airs or graces whatsoever. Today it is very different. The money they can make after politics and the social ambitions of the political class transformed everything.
He is speaking the truth. Politically, he is also playing the long game. This Ukraine business is going to end in tears for almost everyone, especially, sadly, the (surviving) Ukrainians. Westerners who are not near the carnage are still demanding maximalist outcomes at the very moment that Ukraine is being bled white in a rerun of Verdun on the steppes. Ukraine is a post-Christian, postmodern country with very low birth rates. The one thing they cannot lose, and survive, is their young men. And that is what they are losing. If the West and Ukraine, possibly with the outside world weighing in, had demanded a ceasefire after the initial Russian attack was so brilliantly and telegenically defeated, peace may have broken out. Instead, the USA and its proxies have decided to use Ukraine as the anvil to crush Russia. And it won't work. Russia is holding up despite sanctions, and despite its own military ineptitude. Quantity has a quality all its own. Russia is finding markets for its energy exports. It can make lots of shells. There is no reason to think it will collapse. It cannot lose young men, either, and survive. But it has five times as many as Ukraine. Ukraine will be stripped of an entire generational cohort, its future. The US regime, some parts of it, is already making noises about getting this thing resolved, see e.g. the recent Rand study. But the neocons like Nuland want the horror to go on forever, or until some epic outcome is achieved, maybe the Rainbow Flag flying over the Kremlin. This war has sunk to the level of an intramural Beltway bureaucratic power struggle, while people bleed into the dirt on the other side of the world. Tragic and horrible, and I can only pray for peace and an end to the slaughter.
Russians will win if Russians want to win-- but that is far from clear. It seems that a prolongation of the conflict is their plan. As a Serb (born in Croatia) and therefore a Russian nationalist, it was hard for me to admit to myself that Putin and his government did not care about Russia. On the Russian alternative media, there are rumors about agreements between Russian and Ukrainian forces, which seems to be supported by some facts, such as Russian forces' withdrawals from conquered territories. and their failure to attack the military supply lines.
I am not sure that it is wise to rely on any media at this stage. Russia's aim was to remove the threat of NATO using Ukraine as a base from which to attack Russia and to transform the country politically (remove the ultra-nationalists and CIA backed politicians). Territory per se is of secondary interest. Withdrawl itself means nothing. Do not read anything in it. It is a tactic. Withdrawing to preserve the lives of one's troops make sense. Land can be retaken. Soldiers cannot be resurrected. Tactical withdrawl has been a staple of war on the steppes since time immemorial. War on the steppes is not like war in a mountainous region. And the rivers make it much more complicated...fighting while crossing a flowing river (as opposed to a frozen one) is a nightmare and exceptionally costly in terms of life.
Russia did not attack with a large army, relative to the size of the country. They expected Kiev to negotiate, which it did but the West convinced Zelenskiiy not to sign the peace treaty negotiated in Istanbul in April 2022. They (Russia) had to hold key points of defence while preparing an army large enough to finish the job. Russia was not ready in 2022 for major war. They are now ready or very soon will be.
The Russians, especially Putin, are patient. Also, Putin halted progress on several occasions to give negotiators the opportunity to do their jobs. Probably against military advice.
The Russians are determined to win. Do not doubt their resolve. They either defeat the West in Ukraine or they fight the West on Russian soil. Wars are very confusing and the idiots (all countries have them) who think that they can guess the fast-evolving plans of the Stavka are fools. Just wait. Russia has killed between 125,000 and 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers and there are something like 300,000 to 400,000 serious casualties, half of whom are unable to return to service. Russia's losses are relatively small. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is 1:10. The Ukraine now rely heavily on foreigners (Poles, Rumanians and North Americans) to fight for them.
Finally, Russia still has to be cautious because NATO may panic, now that its proxy army is in the process of being destroyed.
Totally agree
The Russians are so far playing the same slow game they played in Syria, 2d Chechen War, for that matter since the Slavs drove out the Mongols.
There's no rush, in particular as the Ukrainians basically commit mass suicide by enemy artillery and Russian encirclement with a dismal consistency.
There is simply no need to rush for the Russians.
The tactical diplomacy you refer to above Sir between Russian and Ukrainian forces is consistent in modern times for Russia again in Syria and 2d Chechen war and indeed is ancient to warfare.
Total war and unconditional surrender are among modernity's more heinous and idiotic policies.
See "Golden Bridge" in 18th century warfare: You're beat, but I want to spare my soldiers and possibly yours , withdraw in this direction and we'll let you.
It's ancient to war.
Why do you think Putin doesn't care about Russia?
Say what you will about Putin and his methods, I think he comes across very patriotic. I would say he cares far more about Russia than any Western leader cares about their country and the citizens they're supposed to represent. This is absolutely undeniable when westerns such as Baerbock explicitly say their voters opinions are irrelevant.
Instead of building their economy, the Russian government is planning to create central bank digital currency based on electronic surveillance and control. What a disgrace!
The Russian gov't is encouraging citizens to buy precious metals. They changed the tax system to incentivise this.
It is far from clear what a digital currency in Russia would involve. Given the high level of tech literacy and STEM skills it would be difficult for the gov't to fool anyone with a surveillance-focused system. My guess is that they may well develop something like a dual system. A single ruble, but with regular currency and a digital version for settlement and exchange with overseas partners who are developing their own digital currencies. It is about interoperability with overseas systems. Just a guess.
Putin is the first Russian leader ever who respects the Russian people. His predecessors saw them only as a means towards one end or another. He is undeniably a good and decent man who is doing the best that he can for his people.
In the West, by contrast, we are governed by a political class who despise and fear us and are replacing us as fast as they can. They have no loyalties except to themselves.
I suspect the truth is some combination of both. As Sonja pointed out, Russia is adapting the same WEF biotech and CBDC agenda we're seeing pushed in the rest of the world.
I'd be careful about making any assumptions on those areas.
Putin is a champion of organic farming and gardening (meaning urban households growing some of their own food in allotments). Russia said no to GMO food. During COVID they developed their own vaccine (Sputnik) from an existing anti-influenza vaccine and the Russian defence people have been releasing evidence of Western Big Pharma using labs in the Ukraine to do gain of function on lethal pathogens (as well as reseach on the genome of local Russians). There is no way on earth Russia is ever going to trust the West on biotech. None.
As for banking, Russia's banking system is separate from the Western one. The ties between the Russian central bank (a real fifth column of Western influence) and the West are being slowly but deliberately severed. Anything digital may well follow or complement Chinese practice in one way or another. The whole issue of settlement and exchange via digital platforms is very complicated but I doubt that Russia is going to allow itself to be yoked to anything that is being pimped by the WEF.
Yes but everyone is centralizing digital money and its in some ways digital money like all money must be accounted for, and the state exists to protect its citizens, including from their own folly. That the gamblers won’t bring us all down has been disproven so many times as to be risible.