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I have been all over the continent these past two weeks, apologies for lower output than usual. We'll get back on track shortly. Thank you for your patience.
At least one person--me--voted for Trump in 2016 solely because Hillary Clinton repeatedly said she wanted to create a no-fly zone over Syria to shoot down Russian planes. (And implicitly let ISIS take over the whole country.)
In the 1840s the British press absolutely demanded a British military intervention against Russia in order to support (Islamic) Caucasian rebels in Dagestan on the theory that Russia would next attempt to invade India. How familiar does this sound?
"The mere presence of a British fleet in the Black Sea would... probably [result in] the retreat of Russia to her own snowy steppes.
"It is our duty, our obligation, by our rank and influence among nations, to procure, for the sake of humanity, a cessation of hostilities in Circassia. We should also endeavour to enlighten benighted inhabitants of that portion of the globe by imparting to them our laws and institutions which, however imperfect, are founded in wisdom, tested by experience and have, confessedly, a direct tendency to propel man onward in the path of civilization.
"This civilization and enlightenment will be best insured by establishing [with Circassia] commercial relations which would answer a twofold purpose of enriching them and, as they advance in industry and wealth, of rendering the barrier still more formidable against the inroads of the only European power [Russia] which seeks through its wanton aggression and insatiable ambition, to disturb the harmony of nations."
and not based on hope, principles, or worse, lies intended to prolong the conflict and that have nothing to do with the best interests of Ukrainians.
-->
rather than based on hope, principles - or worse, lies - intended to prolong the conflict that have nothing to do with the best interests of Ukrainians.
If you have been following any of the shenanigans and diplomatic understanding agreed to, you will know what Zoki said was true and correct. Whether he changed his strips (Communist totalitarian soul) or just became a chameleon Im not sure. But at least he is expressing his views in a way in which I agree.
Wading into the politics of the Balkans is perhaps unwise and I freely admit my all but total ignorance of the subject, but I will risk it.
Milanovic sounds like a great politician. If he has picked up populist themes, that is well and good. He is reaching out to people on the other side of politics. That is pragmatic and reasonable. Furthermore, in the long run Croatia will benefit by repairing relationships with Serbia. Sooner or later a rapprochement has to happen.
Foreign policy (or the national interest) cannot be defined solely by the past or by tribal memories. At the moment the wider region is at risk of being dragged into a bloodbath. The Western ambassadors in Belgrade apparently just delivered an ultimatum to Serbia demanding that they recognise the independence of Kossovo and Metohija. This is both a calculated affront to Russia (because it contrasts with NATO's position on Donetsk, Lugansk and the Crimea) and an attempt to open up a new conflict, perhaps to misdirect attention from the imminent collapse of Ukraine or to complicate things for Moscow.
Finally, Milanovic may well be coordinating his approach with Hungary or at least responding to Orban's example. Historic ties between the two countries run deep and Croatia, Hungary and Serbia have a common interest in maintaining their independence...and the great threat to that comes from Brussels and TurboAmerica, not Moscow. Even if you disagree with him, Milanovic speaks for many (I hope). The wider region needs alternatives to the stooges of empire (whichever empire it is).
ukraine is not a battle of democracy vs tyranny, kiev is run by oligarchs, even more blatantly than the eu and usa.
west ukraine is filled with bandera-ists. poland and rumania are the historic place for that region.
usa, eu and nato are not oath keepers, ukraine is planned to be the same as the soviets wanted cuba, that is ukraine armed to the teeth that jfk denied in 1962.
i am american, a retired military officer and i judge my country is on an immoral and dangerous path since moving nato east of the elbe!
I have avoided Croatia like the plague in the past 30 years, less because of the war (though my family being on the other side of it didn’t exactly help), but because of their EU-/NATO puppetism. All of this has changed with Zoki, who doubled down on the most based views on COVID every time he opened his mouth. His refusal to take the road of least resistance, like his (awful) predecessor, is something to behold. I love going to back to Croatia in the summer now (my Croat-born husband has a house there), and I even turned down invites to Belgrade whose political leadership in my view cannot make up their mind between technocracy and parochialism. So I clap my hands to Zoki and hope he’ll be re-elected, so I can continue traveling to HR with a good conscience.
Orban is certainly playing a dangerous game, but the same is true of Germany. Their economy got wrecked by this, and the destruction of NordStream was a substantial loss. Kissinger's line about it being more dangerous to be a friend of America than an enemy comes to mind.
There are no good options for European leaders in this situation. Either support the US and watch as the war and its costs escalate, or oppose the US and feel the wrath of its economic sanctions.
Zoki is very much like one of the early voices against the Covid vaccine. He will be shouted down, and attacked by the globalists and the media. He might be deplatformed, and threatened by Blinken and other "diplomats" for breaking away from the rules based order. But as evidence piles of Ukraine corruption, Russian fighting capability, and the weakness of the West (how does the US spend $800 billion on the military, and have equipment that breaks down so much), people will start to wake up. When the media is so fanatical on pushing one narrative (like lockdowns), the backlash will come. [I don't know about Europe but that the anti Vax side has gained immensely in the US] It may take years. People who speak out could be arrested and punished with the loss of their jobs. But at least right now, the neocons and their corporate masters are not capable of totally suppressing alternative views.
The comparisons between Covid and Ukraine are interesting. I think the vaccine was appropriate for the vulnerable and the elderly. But the politicians and health figures (Fauci) and global corporate types pushed it on everyone, without showing any trial data, refused to talk about side effects, and harnessed Big Tech to censor any opposition. That caused far more resentment than a balanced "these are the facts, and we are explaining what needs to be done." Of course, a disease and geopolitics are different in scope, background factors, and impact. But both show that the elite prefer an absolutist approach - and can do nothing but escalate and escalate further. It also shows that as long as they have their metrics (stats that they are in charge of collecting and interpreting), nothing else matters. Plenty of scientists said there would be serious side effects on kids and cancer screenings. Fauci and his ilk did not care. Similarly, this Ukraine war will hurt European economy badly. None of the elected and non elected EU officials care.
The West has completely lost any ability for nuance. Three years into the pandemic, we still don't know what exactly is going on. Does the vaccine affect pregnant women? What is the real rate of cardiac issues for young men? And what exactly is causing these excess deaths, particularly in the 15-40 part of the population. It is possible that there are non Vax effects - cancer, mental health, drug use - these may explain part of it. But nobody in power wants to actually figure out why this is going on.
I am not a fan of Putin by any means. I want this war to end primarily because it is so many wasted lives, and for what benefit? The more neocons talk about breaking up Russia, the stronger Putin becomes. The first rally against the war will happen in late February in DC. It won't do anything of course - our elected officials don't care about what citizens say. But it is a sign that these feelings will build. The polls show Republicans turning against more funding to Ukraine. And while the hardcore liberal elites will never admit they are wrong, average people will say we can't pay our car loans, why are we sending billions to pay for a ruined economy. I don't know how fast this will happen. But it will, and then I suspect the media will try to memory hole this. Not sure they will succeed given the neocons will be pushing for war with China.
Feb 2, 2023·edited Feb 2, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo
He is speaking the truth. Politically, he is also playing the long game. This Ukraine business is going to end in tears for almost everyone, especially, sadly, the (surviving) Ukrainians. Westerners who are not near the carnage are still demanding maximalist outcomes at the very moment that Ukraine is being bled white in a rerun of Verdun on the steppes. Ukraine is a post-Christian, postmodern country with very low birth rates. The one thing they cannot lose, and survive, is their young men. And that is what they are losing. If the West and Ukraine, possibly with the outside world weighing in, had demanded a ceasefire after the initial Russian attack was so brilliantly and telegenically defeated, peace may have broken out. Instead, the USA and its proxies have decided to use Ukraine as the anvil to crush Russia. And it won't work. Russia is holding up despite sanctions, and despite its own military ineptitude. Quantity has a quality all its own. Russia is finding markets for its energy exports. It can make lots of shells. There is no reason to think it will collapse. It cannot lose young men, either, and survive. But it has five times as many as Ukraine. Ukraine will be stripped of an entire generational cohort, its future. The US regime, some parts of it, is already making noises about getting this thing resolved, see e.g. the recent Rand study. But the neocons like Nuland want the horror to go on forever, or until some epic outcome is achieved, maybe the Rainbow Flag flying over the Kremlin. This war has sunk to the level of an intramural Beltway bureaucratic power struggle, while people bleed into the dirt on the other side of the world. Tragic and horrible, and I can only pray for peace and an end to the slaughter.
Russians will win if Russians want to win-- but that is far from clear. It seems that a prolongation of the conflict is their plan. As a Serb (born in Croatia) and therefore a Russian nationalist, it was hard for me to admit to myself that Putin and his government did not care about Russia. On the Russian alternative media, there are rumors about agreements between Russian and Ukrainian forces, which seems to be supported by some facts, such as Russian forces' withdrawals from conquered territories. and their failure to attack the military supply lines.
Hit the like button above if you like this article and use the share button to share this across social media.
Please consider subscribing if you haven't done so already and feel free to leave a comment below if the mood strikes you to do so (be nice!).
I have been all over the continent these past two weeks, apologies for lower output than usual. We'll get back on track shortly. Thank you for your patience.
Excellent breakdown Niccolo.
At least one person--me--voted for Trump in 2016 solely because Hillary Clinton repeatedly said she wanted to create a no-fly zone over Syria to shoot down Russian planes. (And implicitly let ISIS take over the whole country.)
Now he knows how Joan of Arc felt!
In the 1840s the British press absolutely demanded a British military intervention against Russia in order to support (Islamic) Caucasian rebels in Dagestan on the theory that Russia would next attempt to invade India. How familiar does this sound?
"The mere presence of a British fleet in the Black Sea would... probably [result in] the retreat of Russia to her own snowy steppes.
"It is our duty, our obligation, by our rank and influence among nations, to procure, for the sake of humanity, a cessation of hostilities in Circassia. We should also endeavour to enlighten benighted inhabitants of that portion of the globe by imparting to them our laws and institutions which, however imperfect, are founded in wisdom, tested by experience and have, confessedly, a direct tendency to propel man onward in the path of civilization.
"This civilization and enlightenment will be best insured by establishing [with Circassia] commercial relations which would answer a twofold purpose of enriching them and, as they advance in industry and wealth, of rendering the barrier still more formidable against the inroads of the only European power [Russia] which seeks through its wanton aggression and insatiable ambition, to disturb the harmony of nations."
as a hole --> as a whole
and not based on hope, principles, or worse, lies intended to prolong the conflict and that have nothing to do with the best interests of Ukrainians.
-->
rather than based on hope, principles - or worse, lies - intended to prolong the conflict that have nothing to do with the best interests of Ukrainians.
If you have been following any of the shenanigans and diplomatic understanding agreed to, you will know what Zoki said was true and correct. Whether he changed his strips (Communist totalitarian soul) or just became a chameleon Im not sure. But at least he is expressing his views in a way in which I agree.
Wading into the politics of the Balkans is perhaps unwise and I freely admit my all but total ignorance of the subject, but I will risk it.
Milanovic sounds like a great politician. If he has picked up populist themes, that is well and good. He is reaching out to people on the other side of politics. That is pragmatic and reasonable. Furthermore, in the long run Croatia will benefit by repairing relationships with Serbia. Sooner or later a rapprochement has to happen.
Foreign policy (or the national interest) cannot be defined solely by the past or by tribal memories. At the moment the wider region is at risk of being dragged into a bloodbath. The Western ambassadors in Belgrade apparently just delivered an ultimatum to Serbia demanding that they recognise the independence of Kossovo and Metohija. This is both a calculated affront to Russia (because it contrasts with NATO's position on Donetsk, Lugansk and the Crimea) and an attempt to open up a new conflict, perhaps to misdirect attention from the imminent collapse of Ukraine or to complicate things for Moscow.
Finally, Milanovic may well be coordinating his approach with Hungary or at least responding to Orban's example. Historic ties between the two countries run deep and Croatia, Hungary and Serbia have a common interest in maintaining their independence...and the great threat to that comes from Brussels and TurboAmerica, not Moscow. Even if you disagree with him, Milanovic speaks for many (I hope). The wider region needs alternatives to the stooges of empire (whichever empire it is).
"Democracy comes from the West, natural gas comes from the East".
Orban's stance in 2008 and Orban's stance today.
i like what zoki says!
ukraine is not a battle of democracy vs tyranny, kiev is run by oligarchs, even more blatantly than the eu and usa.
west ukraine is filled with bandera-ists. poland and rumania are the historic place for that region.
usa, eu and nato are not oath keepers, ukraine is planned to be the same as the soviets wanted cuba, that is ukraine armed to the teeth that jfk denied in 1962.
i am american, a retired military officer and i judge my country is on an immoral and dangerous path since moving nato east of the elbe!
I have avoided Croatia like the plague in the past 30 years, less because of the war (though my family being on the other side of it didn’t exactly help), but because of their EU-/NATO puppetism. All of this has changed with Zoki, who doubled down on the most based views on COVID every time he opened his mouth. His refusal to take the road of least resistance, like his (awful) predecessor, is something to behold. I love going to back to Croatia in the summer now (my Croat-born husband has a house there), and I even turned down invites to Belgrade whose political leadership in my view cannot make up their mind between technocracy and parochialism. So I clap my hands to Zoki and hope he’ll be re-elected, so I can continue traveling to HR with a good conscience.
Orban is certainly playing a dangerous game, but the same is true of Germany. Their economy got wrecked by this, and the destruction of NordStream was a substantial loss. Kissinger's line about it being more dangerous to be a friend of America than an enemy comes to mind.
There are no good options for European leaders in this situation. Either support the US and watch as the war and its costs escalate, or oppose the US and feel the wrath of its economic sanctions.
Good article Niccolo. I’ve been following what President Milanovic has been saying and it’s valuable to hear your assessment.
Zoki is very much like one of the early voices against the Covid vaccine. He will be shouted down, and attacked by the globalists and the media. He might be deplatformed, and threatened by Blinken and other "diplomats" for breaking away from the rules based order. But as evidence piles of Ukraine corruption, Russian fighting capability, and the weakness of the West (how does the US spend $800 billion on the military, and have equipment that breaks down so much), people will start to wake up. When the media is so fanatical on pushing one narrative (like lockdowns), the backlash will come. [I don't know about Europe but that the anti Vax side has gained immensely in the US] It may take years. People who speak out could be arrested and punished with the loss of their jobs. But at least right now, the neocons and their corporate masters are not capable of totally suppressing alternative views.
The comparisons between Covid and Ukraine are interesting. I think the vaccine was appropriate for the vulnerable and the elderly. But the politicians and health figures (Fauci) and global corporate types pushed it on everyone, without showing any trial data, refused to talk about side effects, and harnessed Big Tech to censor any opposition. That caused far more resentment than a balanced "these are the facts, and we are explaining what needs to be done." Of course, a disease and geopolitics are different in scope, background factors, and impact. But both show that the elite prefer an absolutist approach - and can do nothing but escalate and escalate further. It also shows that as long as they have their metrics (stats that they are in charge of collecting and interpreting), nothing else matters. Plenty of scientists said there would be serious side effects on kids and cancer screenings. Fauci and his ilk did not care. Similarly, this Ukraine war will hurt European economy badly. None of the elected and non elected EU officials care.
The West has completely lost any ability for nuance. Three years into the pandemic, we still don't know what exactly is going on. Does the vaccine affect pregnant women? What is the real rate of cardiac issues for young men? And what exactly is causing these excess deaths, particularly in the 15-40 part of the population. It is possible that there are non Vax effects - cancer, mental health, drug use - these may explain part of it. But nobody in power wants to actually figure out why this is going on.
I am not a fan of Putin by any means. I want this war to end primarily because it is so many wasted lives, and for what benefit? The more neocons talk about breaking up Russia, the stronger Putin becomes. The first rally against the war will happen in late February in DC. It won't do anything of course - our elected officials don't care about what citizens say. But it is a sign that these feelings will build. The polls show Republicans turning against more funding to Ukraine. And while the hardcore liberal elites will never admit they are wrong, average people will say we can't pay our car loans, why are we sending billions to pay for a ruined economy. I don't know how fast this will happen. But it will, and then I suspect the media will try to memory hole this. Not sure they will succeed given the neocons will be pushing for war with China.
Serbs are going to cause trouble. For Kosovo, for Croatia, for Russia, for Europe.
Or have they reformed?
He is speaking the truth. Politically, he is also playing the long game. This Ukraine business is going to end in tears for almost everyone, especially, sadly, the (surviving) Ukrainians. Westerners who are not near the carnage are still demanding maximalist outcomes at the very moment that Ukraine is being bled white in a rerun of Verdun on the steppes. Ukraine is a post-Christian, postmodern country with very low birth rates. The one thing they cannot lose, and survive, is their young men. And that is what they are losing. If the West and Ukraine, possibly with the outside world weighing in, had demanded a ceasefire after the initial Russian attack was so brilliantly and telegenically defeated, peace may have broken out. Instead, the USA and its proxies have decided to use Ukraine as the anvil to crush Russia. And it won't work. Russia is holding up despite sanctions, and despite its own military ineptitude. Quantity has a quality all its own. Russia is finding markets for its energy exports. It can make lots of shells. There is no reason to think it will collapse. It cannot lose young men, either, and survive. But it has five times as many as Ukraine. Ukraine will be stripped of an entire generational cohort, its future. The US regime, some parts of it, is already making noises about getting this thing resolved, see e.g. the recent Rand study. But the neocons like Nuland want the horror to go on forever, or until some epic outcome is achieved, maybe the Rainbow Flag flying over the Kremlin. This war has sunk to the level of an intramural Beltway bureaucratic power struggle, while people bleed into the dirt on the other side of the world. Tragic and horrible, and I can only pray for peace and an end to the slaughter.
Russians will win if Russians want to win-- but that is far from clear. It seems that a prolongation of the conflict is their plan. As a Serb (born in Croatia) and therefore a Russian nationalist, it was hard for me to admit to myself that Putin and his government did not care about Russia. On the Russian alternative media, there are rumors about agreements between Russian and Ukrainian forces, which seems to be supported by some facts, such as Russian forces' withdrawals from conquered territories. and their failure to attack the military supply lines.