Hit the like button above and use the share button to share this across social media. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so (be nice!), and don't forget to subscribe if you haven't done so already.
Health is back to 100%, and posting will proceed as usual. I appreciate your patience.
Dec 6, 2022·edited Dec 6, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
The internal stability of the US is remarkable; USD being the global panic reserve helps. (But there are IRL reasons, independence from shock, a broader anti-fragility, see Norway).
However, on US foreign policy, the "all sticks" is slowly taking a toll. To quote myself 😎
"America is burning international political capital, always choosing coercion over cooperation when it comes to its allies. A rigid enforcement of Washington’s absolute will is the State Department’s default stance. This is almost unprecedented in my lifetime, with one exception: the brief global grieving period right after 9/11; for a short while America got a carte blanche to stomp around as far as the world was concerned. Now however, there’s little sympathy, only fear."
"Chinese foreign policy is all carrots, no sticks. A mutual indifference to each other’s internal politics is expected by Beijing, but that’s it. Even if you disagree with this policy and prefer to be nosy, at least it’s mutual, which as pragmatic as it gets in diplomacy.
I’m not happy about this, I don’t want the West to lose, but I’m not an American, I don’t even have a single vote on the matter. Where I do have a vote is the European Union."
"Having no power of our own, Washington only communicating down to us through sticks and being forced to foot the bill for their adventurous mistakes is the worst possible situation for Europe. It’s humiliating and unsustainable."
I've shared the Turbo-America articles with a few people and it's funny how mad they got at the idea that America is NOT about to collapse or enter a civil war.
You would think living in the richest most powerful country in history would make people happy or at least grateful, and the idea of the Jeffersonian experiment surviving would make Americans of almost all stripes optimistic, but it seems many people (esp the Extremely Online) are so poisoned with bile they can't handle good news.
Since we're living in an age of proxy psychological diagnoses, I'm gonna add that what's up next on our menu of mass-formation hysteria is Freud's return of the repressed (I'm gonna be a Nazi since everyone says that's the worst thing you can be!) and also the return of the infantile, where if I (or my side) can't win everything and watch my enemies cry, the game needs to be thrown over and destroyed.
Turbo-America may be the dominant institution poised for a 1000-yr reign, but the inmates in this asylum keep getting crazier!
I continue to be fascinated by this thesis. I do accept that populism is being beat back effectively internally. I'm very curious to see how the empires external efforts will work out. Clearly the grip on Europe is stronger than I ever thought possible, but in many cases the grip on the non-west world seems weaker than I thought. The things that will be on my radar are:
1. Saudi Arabia appears to be the one of the main indicators for me. I would have thought they were a vassal state like Europe, yet they seem intent on rebuking the empire time and time again (I mean the US has been bombing Yemen for how long on their behalf and still they seem closer to Russia than the US).
2. The oil cap just enacted among G7. This is quite a flex. Imposing your own price on Russian oil and expecting the world to go along. My feeling is much of the world is not going a long, and what does this mean? If the west is crippled with higher energy prices this must have some downward effects.
3. The continuing sanctions against Russia, now Europe will not buy Russian oil even by ship if I understand correctly. How will Europe be able to remain viable like it has while at the same time increasing energy prices significantly on itself? (they were able to stockpile for this winter due to Russian energy, what comes next year?)
4. BRICS. Will BRICS grow in size and power, and most importantly be able to present an alternative to the dollar, especially in the trade of oil?
5. The war in Ukraine. Russia appears to be on the cusp of making a much bigger push in Ukraine. While the US is admitting that Ukraine has run through a lot of it's artillery and weapons already, and doesn't have the capacity to replenish them in short order. Will it matter if Ukraine faces defeat and a new migrant crisis on an even larger scale results from this?
On the home front the one thing that is attracting my attention is just how bad Hollywood is doing. It's gone all in on pushing the new religion of the west but the returns aren't there. It seemed for a while that they could push without fear, as Marvel and other IP would fill in any gaps. Now, after the worst Thanksgiving weekend ever (not even adjusted for inflation), there is more and more evidence that a correction of some sort is inevitable. Disney's most "woke" show ever, Strange World, will likely lose them a figure not way off 200 million, which must rank among the worst flops ever. Art appears to have been the first victim of the empires new religion, and I wonder what effect this new total dark age will have and whether it will matter or not within your thesis.
From Rome HBO series: "400 years after its last king was driven of the city, the Republic of Rome rules many nations, but cannot rule itself".
Looking at the dysfunction of urban America, and the hollowing out of rural America, I think this quote sums up the Republic of America pretty well as well.
"global hegemonic position" is essential evil and opposed to the traditions of the usa since george washington warned of 'foreign entanglements' is the 1790's.
usa belligerence is evil.
the usa and its population is about where the 'good germans' were in 1940....
hegemon is inherently immoral, and rules based in propaganda for rule!
No matter how dumb or arrogant they seem and likely are, their power is unfathomable, and the one thing they are undeniably good at is maintaining it
Internally we are back at the center on economics, foreign policy, and maybe in the future even some surprise issues like immigration, but with a hard left bent on social issues that doesn't seem likely to abate given the huge structural advantages one party has over the other
Abroad, I still hold out a little hope that America's allies will find their balls. Some indications lately that Latin America is going to be as anti-Yankee as it's been in a while. Asia seems to be bristling a little at the possibility of being asked to sacrifice for Taiwan like Europe is for Ukraine. And I do think the situation in Ukraine has the potential to strengthen the EU against American influence in the future, even if they're still cucking for now
I'm new to this thesis but haven't noticed a change in American foreign policy. It is as blundering and destructive as ever.
The USA is a stable third-world country. Having a nuclear deterrent while surrounded by oceans helps keep the rest of the world at bay. Hating your poor helps with domestic issues.
"Darth Brandon has managed to stumble, Jar Jar Binks style, into almost complete imperial dominance."
Thank you for sharing that.
Agree with Menyhei and you. We, America, are burning through all the political capital, global goodwill and benefit of the doubt that was earned from a muscular post WW2 foreign policy. And our team is good with it.
We were leaders of a liberal democratic philosophy that included an independent NATO. We kept paying all the bills and eventually started acting like we were entitled to make all the decisions. That would be okay if we were led by a Metternich. A stable world order keeps the money and influence flowing more effectively than the current winner take all strategy. I'm concerned that our hubris becomes arrogance where we can't fend off all the states that want to reassert their sovereignty. That would be a big angry dog-pile. The fall would be quick and a much bigger shock than 9/11; and it won't just be Palestinians dancing in the streets. Hope I'm wrong.
I'm a freeloader, but you've almost got me; maybe for Christmas. Also, glad you're feeling better.
While I’m divided on the question of America’s power in the world (it seems to me to be both powerful and fragile at the same time, like a Killdozer that could shut down at any moment if a valve breaks), one thing I do agree on is that a civil war seems highly unlikely. That said, I’m thinking in terms of a truly militarized, SHTF situation civil war, and something Evil Political Scientist has observed is that many civil wars just look like sustained periods of high violence—and by some standard, we’re arguably already in that.
You may be mistaking inertia for solidity, but it’s probably too soon to tell.
Still don’t think I’d quite put the Armed Forces in Blue. DOD sat on its hands Jan 6, the ARNG was essentially duped and knows it, and to put them Left at all is simply wrong.
They may obey orders, its very iffy. The retention and re-enlistment rates are plummeting far below sustainment levels.
They may well be melting away.
Military families is a very real thing, its really generational and usually police same families.
They walk replacing them for war or even current commitments would require conscription.
A very unlikely development that wouldn’t be positive.
A military Empire headed by a kleptocracy who’s police despise it isn’t very stable either.
Hit the like button above and use the share button to share this across social media. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so (be nice!), and don't forget to subscribe if you haven't done so already.
Health is back to 100%, and posting will proceed as usual. I appreciate your patience.
For paying subscribers, the chat feature has now been enabled. See here for details - https://niccolo.substack.com/p/fisted-by-foucault-subscriber-chat
The internal stability of the US is remarkable; USD being the global panic reserve helps. (But there are IRL reasons, independence from shock, a broader anti-fragility, see Norway).
However, on US foreign policy, the "all sticks" is slowly taking a toll. To quote myself 😎
"America is burning international political capital, always choosing coercion over cooperation when it comes to its allies. A rigid enforcement of Washington’s absolute will is the State Department’s default stance. This is almost unprecedented in my lifetime, with one exception: the brief global grieving period right after 9/11; for a short while America got a carte blanche to stomp around as far as the world was concerned. Now however, there’s little sympathy, only fear."
"Chinese foreign policy is all carrots, no sticks. A mutual indifference to each other’s internal politics is expected by Beijing, but that’s it. Even if you disagree with this policy and prefer to be nosy, at least it’s mutual, which as pragmatic as it gets in diplomacy.
I’m not happy about this, I don’t want the West to lose, but I’m not an American, I don’t even have a single vote on the matter. Where I do have a vote is the European Union."
"Having no power of our own, Washington only communicating down to us through sticks and being forced to foot the bill for their adventurous mistakes is the worst possible situation for Europe. It’s humiliating and unsustainable."
The EU needs to have its own foreign policy.
5000 IUs of Vitamin D3 daily.
I've shared the Turbo-America articles with a few people and it's funny how mad they got at the idea that America is NOT about to collapse or enter a civil war.
You would think living in the richest most powerful country in history would make people happy or at least grateful, and the idea of the Jeffersonian experiment surviving would make Americans of almost all stripes optimistic, but it seems many people (esp the Extremely Online) are so poisoned with bile they can't handle good news.
Since we're living in an age of proxy psychological diagnoses, I'm gonna add that what's up next on our menu of mass-formation hysteria is Freud's return of the repressed (I'm gonna be a Nazi since everyone says that's the worst thing you can be!) and also the return of the infantile, where if I (or my side) can't win everything and watch my enemies cry, the game needs to be thrown over and destroyed.
Turbo-America may be the dominant institution poised for a 1000-yr reign, but the inmates in this asylum keep getting crazier!
I continue to be fascinated by this thesis. I do accept that populism is being beat back effectively internally. I'm very curious to see how the empires external efforts will work out. Clearly the grip on Europe is stronger than I ever thought possible, but in many cases the grip on the non-west world seems weaker than I thought. The things that will be on my radar are:
1. Saudi Arabia appears to be the one of the main indicators for me. I would have thought they were a vassal state like Europe, yet they seem intent on rebuking the empire time and time again (I mean the US has been bombing Yemen for how long on their behalf and still they seem closer to Russia than the US).
2. The oil cap just enacted among G7. This is quite a flex. Imposing your own price on Russian oil and expecting the world to go along. My feeling is much of the world is not going a long, and what does this mean? If the west is crippled with higher energy prices this must have some downward effects.
3. The continuing sanctions against Russia, now Europe will not buy Russian oil even by ship if I understand correctly. How will Europe be able to remain viable like it has while at the same time increasing energy prices significantly on itself? (they were able to stockpile for this winter due to Russian energy, what comes next year?)
4. BRICS. Will BRICS grow in size and power, and most importantly be able to present an alternative to the dollar, especially in the trade of oil?
5. The war in Ukraine. Russia appears to be on the cusp of making a much bigger push in Ukraine. While the US is admitting that Ukraine has run through a lot of it's artillery and weapons already, and doesn't have the capacity to replenish them in short order. Will it matter if Ukraine faces defeat and a new migrant crisis on an even larger scale results from this?
On the home front the one thing that is attracting my attention is just how bad Hollywood is doing. It's gone all in on pushing the new religion of the west but the returns aren't there. It seemed for a while that they could push without fear, as Marvel and other IP would fill in any gaps. Now, after the worst Thanksgiving weekend ever (not even adjusted for inflation), there is more and more evidence that a correction of some sort is inevitable. Disney's most "woke" show ever, Strange World, will likely lose them a figure not way off 200 million, which must rank among the worst flops ever. Art appears to have been the first victim of the empires new religion, and I wonder what effect this new total dark age will have and whether it will matter or not within your thesis.
From Rome HBO series: "400 years after its last king was driven of the city, the Republic of Rome rules many nations, but cannot rule itself".
Looking at the dysfunction of urban America, and the hollowing out of rural America, I think this quote sums up the Republic of America pretty well as well.
"global hegemonic position" is essential evil and opposed to the traditions of the usa since george washington warned of 'foreign entanglements' is the 1790's.
usa belligerence is evil.
the usa and its population is about where the 'good germans' were in 1940....
hegemon is inherently immoral, and rules based in propaganda for rule!
both russia and china see!
Clearly Niccolo includes no room for miracles in his surgical assessment of Machiavellian elite power dynamics
A few minor suggestions -
i.e. "revisionist power" --> i.e. (the "revisionist" powers)
in total --> in general OR completely
regarding its standing in fear that it is ebbing away --> that its standing in the world is ebbing away
. This remains [...] --> The actual event of its power ebbing away [...]
[otherwise the 'this' here is ambiguous as to what it refers back to]
What do you think that the US will do with a degraded and (partially) deindustrialized Europe? Abandon? Use to attack China?
No matter how dumb or arrogant they seem and likely are, their power is unfathomable, and the one thing they are undeniably good at is maintaining it
Internally we are back at the center on economics, foreign policy, and maybe in the future even some surprise issues like immigration, but with a hard left bent on social issues that doesn't seem likely to abate given the huge structural advantages one party has over the other
Abroad, I still hold out a little hope that America's allies will find their balls. Some indications lately that Latin America is going to be as anti-Yankee as it's been in a while. Asia seems to be bristling a little at the possibility of being asked to sacrifice for Taiwan like Europe is for Ukraine. And I do think the situation in Ukraine has the potential to strengthen the EU against American influence in the future, even if they're still cucking for now
I'm new to this thesis but haven't noticed a change in American foreign policy. It is as blundering and destructive as ever.
The USA is a stable third-world country. Having a nuclear deterrent while surrounded by oceans helps keep the rest of the world at bay. Hating your poor helps with domestic issues.
Check out this Bret Stephens piece arguing for dramatically MORE U.S. defense spending: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/06/opinion/military-defense-spending.html
"Darth Brandon has managed to stumble, Jar Jar Binks style, into almost complete imperial dominance."
Thank you for sharing that.
Agree with Menyhei and you. We, America, are burning through all the political capital, global goodwill and benefit of the doubt that was earned from a muscular post WW2 foreign policy. And our team is good with it.
We were leaders of a liberal democratic philosophy that included an independent NATO. We kept paying all the bills and eventually started acting like we were entitled to make all the decisions. That would be okay if we were led by a Metternich. A stable world order keeps the money and influence flowing more effectively than the current winner take all strategy. I'm concerned that our hubris becomes arrogance where we can't fend off all the states that want to reassert their sovereignty. That would be a big angry dog-pile. The fall would be quick and a much bigger shock than 9/11; and it won't just be Palestinians dancing in the streets. Hope I'm wrong.
I'm a freeloader, but you've almost got me; maybe for Christmas. Also, glad you're feeling better.
While I’m divided on the question of America’s power in the world (it seems to me to be both powerful and fragile at the same time, like a Killdozer that could shut down at any moment if a valve breaks), one thing I do agree on is that a civil war seems highly unlikely. That said, I’m thinking in terms of a truly militarized, SHTF situation civil war, and something Evil Political Scientist has observed is that many civil wars just look like sustained periods of high violence—and by some standard, we’re arguably already in that.
You may be mistaking inertia for solidity, but it’s probably too soon to tell.
Still don’t think I’d quite put the Armed Forces in Blue. DOD sat on its hands Jan 6, the ARNG was essentially duped and knows it, and to put them Left at all is simply wrong.
They may obey orders, its very iffy. The retention and re-enlistment rates are plummeting far below sustainment levels.
They may well be melting away.
Military families is a very real thing, its really generational and usually police same families.
They walk replacing them for war or even current commitments would require conscription.
A very unlikely development that wouldn’t be positive.
A military Empire headed by a kleptocracy who’s police despise it isn’t very stable either.