Hit the like button above and use the share button to share this across social media. Consider subscribing if you haven't already, and leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so.
These two pieces brought up in this short essay are very interesting, and they give us all something to think about.
It seems the key challenge for The Metropole in the Young World-immigration-fueled scenario will be maintaining (repairing) the culture that facilitated its rise in the first place. Central planning is quite adept at wrecking economies.
I'm not anti-capitalist or anything like this, but it seems self-evident that basing your economy and way of life on the idea of eternal expansion and growth is not only not sustainable, but insane.
Aug 23, 2022·edited Aug 23, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
Yes, I do think companies will use WFH to offshore white collar jobs.We need to keep in mind that many of these jobs are total bullshit. Why pay $100,000+ to some Yale Economics grad to work as an ESG consultant when you can pay $10,000 to a University of Mumbai Economics grad and get the same bullshit work done?
What I find is fascinating is how little this is being discussed. I remember in the early days of the pandemic, some reddit post bringing up the same exact dangers of WFH and he was downvoted into oblivion. To connect to your earlier piece, is it because we don't like alarmists?
Aug 23, 2022·edited Aug 23, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
Hey,
Not to be an ass kisser, but yours is really becoming my Numero Uno Substack spot, the hits keep coming, your game is tight!
Also, I don't know if you've grappled with the massive baggy monster that is Spengler's "Decline" but he has at least a chapter or 2 about the urban/rural divide, it is one of his main themes as far as elucidating the fissures that open in every society.
And as for Yglesias, Bryan Caplan, and the Open Borders crowd: I will give a provisional Yea to their grandiose fantasy on one condition: the first 1000 immigrants from wherever live on their block, the next 10,000 live in their neighborhood, and the first million live in whatever city they live in. And also, their kids all go to the same schools and colleges, they go to the same doctors and hospitals, they share all the same facilities.
Pity the poor blue/pink collar worker who must attend in person to the needs of their employer rather than reading FbF while working from home on a laptop.
Beyond just projecting on current trends, Buskirk’s view seems to be missing the forest for the trees. The power of nations cannot be reduced to just population and median age
Though my bias is clouding my judgment. I don’t want this bleak capitalist hellscape centered around United States to be our future
The United State’s continuously falling share of the world’s GDP, China’s long term planning versus the United States’ focus on short term profit, Russia’s triumph so far in Ukraine, social instability (among the public) within the United States, the strong possibility of Turbo America backfiring… these point to a multipolar world and are entirely ignored
This does not answer any of the questions you posed, but this scenario seems unlikely. Answering the questions in another comment
“What does this do to the idea of nation and of citizenship as well?”
Nations become more like corporations seeking to attract employees. Citizenship is a means of accessing jobs and their associated perks. This is already true of the elites and digital nomads, but it becomes normalized
“…what if WFH serves to make migration unnecessary?”
There will be a sharp difference between digital workers and physical workers. Under the assumptions made, outsourcing will continue. A worldwide labor pool will lead to a surplus of workers even with competition; pay and relative living standards will fall. Given the global competition for digital jobs, competition for local physical jobs will increase as well, worsening conditions for them as well
The view from inside the immigration system here in the US certainly appears to be an open border in function if not yet in form. I presume they could, in the WFH worldwide scenario, simply eradicate the limits on H1B visas and the like since there would be no physical presence required.
Truth is, as long as the pursuit of endless and increasing profit remains the paradigm, all scenarios up to and including Soylent Green are in play.
Regarding remote work, I don't think we've seen anything yet. There's way, way more runway there.
Because of the internet, tons of kids around the world will grow up with decent English skills after childhoods spent watching Netflix and YouTube. English will become a lingua franca to a substantially greater extent than it already is. This will increase the pool of potential employees both for Anglosphere countries and for other countries, in Europe and elsewhere, that will increasingly operate in English in the workplace.
Time zones are an issue but not everywhere. A US company I do business with has outsourced its entire back office to South America. It seems to work, as far as I can tell. I regularly have salespeople from South American outsourcing firms reach out to me. Their employees speak English, have college degrees from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, etc., and work on US hours.
I've played with the Oculus-style VR headsets a bit. They aren't quite ready for prime time yet, but they're already impressive and will no doubt improve steadily. Once that tech matures a little, it will be much more effective than Zoom for conference-style meetings and similar things.
SpaceX's Starlink system will give people in rural areas around the world high-speed internet access, increasing the pool of potential workers.
The 1st world is replacing unskilled laborers with tech at an extreme pace (robots in some fast food kitchens are in the news a lot recently). WFH is definitely a positive thing for rural areas, but I do believe businesses are catching on that not all of their staff bring much value.
The world's population will level out sooner than later, but "economists" always make it sound like a stagnant population is a negative thing. We need to make our economy more efficient and less just throwing bodies at the wall. What I am basically trying to say is, we are going to need a lot more mechanics in the future.
Funny how it never occurs to them that policies strongly incentivizing natural increase could achieve the same effect as mass immigration. Get the average birthrate up to 4/female and the US population will reach a billion by century's end.
Hit the like button above and use the share button to share this across social media. Consider subscribing if you haven't already, and leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so.
These two pieces brought up in this short essay are very interesting, and they give us all something to think about.
It seems the key challenge for The Metropole in the Young World-immigration-fueled scenario will be maintaining (repairing) the culture that facilitated its rise in the first place. Central planning is quite adept at wrecking economies.
The Hell with the MetroPole.
Good types live in GoatScrew Arkansas.
That's where you want to be
The most powerful driver for worsening Global Warming is overpopulation by Homo sapiens
Discuss.
I'm not anti-capitalist or anything like this, but it seems self-evident that basing your economy and way of life on the idea of eternal expansion and growth is not only not sustainable, but insane.
Yes, I do think companies will use WFH to offshore white collar jobs.We need to keep in mind that many of these jobs are total bullshit. Why pay $100,000+ to some Yale Economics grad to work as an ESG consultant when you can pay $10,000 to a University of Mumbai Economics grad and get the same bullshit work done?
What I find is fascinating is how little this is being discussed. I remember in the early days of the pandemic, some reddit post bringing up the same exact dangers of WFH and he was downvoted into oblivion. To connect to your earlier piece, is it because we don't like alarmists?
Hey,
Not to be an ass kisser, but yours is really becoming my Numero Uno Substack spot, the hits keep coming, your game is tight!
Also, I don't know if you've grappled with the massive baggy monster that is Spengler's "Decline" but he has at least a chapter or 2 about the urban/rural divide, it is one of his main themes as far as elucidating the fissures that open in every society.
And as for Yglesias, Bryan Caplan, and the Open Borders crowd: I will give a provisional Yea to their grandiose fantasy on one condition: the first 1000 immigrants from wherever live on their block, the next 10,000 live in their neighborhood, and the first million live in whatever city they live in. And also, their kids all go to the same schools and colleges, they go to the same doctors and hospitals, they share all the same facilities.
Gotta have skin in the game!
Pity the poor blue/pink collar worker who must attend in person to the needs of their employer rather than reading FbF while working from home on a laptop.
Beyond just projecting on current trends, Buskirk’s view seems to be missing the forest for the trees. The power of nations cannot be reduced to just population and median age
Though my bias is clouding my judgment. I don’t want this bleak capitalist hellscape centered around United States to be our future
The United State’s continuously falling share of the world’s GDP, China’s long term planning versus the United States’ focus on short term profit, Russia’s triumph so far in Ukraine, social instability (among the public) within the United States, the strong possibility of Turbo America backfiring… these point to a multipolar world and are entirely ignored
This does not answer any of the questions you posed, but this scenario seems unlikely. Answering the questions in another comment
“But what if these trends do persist?”
I doubt they will
“What does this do to the idea of nation and of citizenship as well?”
Nations become more like corporations seeking to attract employees. Citizenship is a means of accessing jobs and their associated perks. This is already true of the elites and digital nomads, but it becomes normalized
“…what if WFH serves to make migration unnecessary?”
There will be a sharp difference between digital workers and physical workers. Under the assumptions made, outsourcing will continue. A worldwide labor pool will lead to a surplus of workers even with competition; pay and relative living standards will fall. Given the global competition for digital jobs, competition for local physical jobs will increase as well, worsening conditions for them as well
The globalist elites become even more wealthy
...this future seems incredibly bleak and dull
Maybe Yglesias isn't willing to walk the walk: https://washingtoncitypaper.com/article/454815/matt-yglesias-sweet-condo-provokes-outrage/
This type of "populism" is quite common.
The view from inside the immigration system here in the US certainly appears to be an open border in function if not yet in form. I presume they could, in the WFH worldwide scenario, simply eradicate the limits on H1B visas and the like since there would be no physical presence required.
Truth is, as long as the pursuit of endless and increasing profit remains the paradigm, all scenarios up to and including Soylent Green are in play.
Regarding remote work, I don't think we've seen anything yet. There's way, way more runway there.
Because of the internet, tons of kids around the world will grow up with decent English skills after childhoods spent watching Netflix and YouTube. English will become a lingua franca to a substantially greater extent than it already is. This will increase the pool of potential employees both for Anglosphere countries and for other countries, in Europe and elsewhere, that will increasingly operate in English in the workplace.
Time zones are an issue but not everywhere. A US company I do business with has outsourced its entire back office to South America. It seems to work, as far as I can tell. I regularly have salespeople from South American outsourcing firms reach out to me. Their employees speak English, have college degrees from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, etc., and work on US hours.
I've played with the Oculus-style VR headsets a bit. They aren't quite ready for prime time yet, but they're already impressive and will no doubt improve steadily. Once that tech matures a little, it will be much more effective than Zoom for conference-style meetings and similar things.
SpaceX's Starlink system will give people in rural areas around the world high-speed internet access, increasing the pool of potential workers.
Could probably continue this list indefinitely...
The 1st world is replacing unskilled laborers with tech at an extreme pace (robots in some fast food kitchens are in the news a lot recently). WFH is definitely a positive thing for rural areas, but I do believe businesses are catching on that not all of their staff bring much value.
The world's population will level out sooner than later, but "economists" always make it sound like a stagnant population is a negative thing. We need to make our economy more efficient and less just throwing bodies at the wall. What I am basically trying to say is, we are going to need a lot more mechanics in the future.
Great examples and links to an interesting thesis
Funny how it never occurs to them that policies strongly incentivizing natural increase could achieve the same effect as mass immigration. Get the average birthrate up to 4/female and the US population will reach a billion by century's end.
I'm sure they just haven't thought of that.