Hit the like button above to like this entry and use the share button to share this across social media.
Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so (be nice!), and please consider subscribing if you haven't done so already. We are now testing out the chat feature on both Apple and Android phones. Learn more here - https://niccolo.substack.com/p/fisted-by-foucault-subscriber-chat
Your points about Russia display a nation that has a growing confidence in herself and a new purpose. I saw this in particular when Putin opened the new Cathedral of the Armed Forces. They have a certain spirit which the West does not.
I was trying to refer to this when disagreeing with your 'Turbo America' piece and others. Although America has secured some surprise victories these are the consequence of being a former hegemon and the decline not being overnight. She still has a lot of power but the corruption is to her core and cannot be repaired, I don't think. It doesn't mean America is not still dangerous but essentially she is weak and Europe needs to get out from under the collapse. Sadly, we do not appear to be doing anything to protect ourselves.
I’ve commented about this on here before, but Europes response in this conflict has been the most surprising to me. It pains me to watch a continent I’ve have respected from afar seemingly self immolate. I keep wondering what I’m not understanding in their response, as it seems to lead into no other direction than decline.
Reading about Russia, it occurred to me that we are seeing yet another instance, common enough throughout history, of nations being energised by conflict. War can bring people together.
The trouble is that the success of Putin's Russia may well inspire other regimes (including Washington) to a war-related programme. Countries beset by another and atomistic may well conclude that another war might be useful as an alternative to social or political unrest.
I wonder if it can bring together the US at this point. If Russia targeted some US embassy and more then maybe I could see it, but Russia has been far too careful for this so far.
The US in many ways is like the EU. We have an elite culture being forced on everyone and everything, from our elite institutions and corporations, rather than this debt mechanism found there. I would argue the results are similar: a loss of control and frustration felt deeply by a large portion of the population. It’s almost impossible for me to imagine the kind of attitude described by this Russian account being present in modern America.
It was present in 2001, but that patriotism and national pride has long turned sour and even rancid. Which is to say that the US has already had its moment of being energized by conflict, and the result of it was the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Russia maybe is playing their hand more intelligently, no shock and awe as of yet, which in hindsight was probably an overextension and the beginning of the steady erosion of US confidence and patriotic zeal.
It also strikes me that a big part of the project of the progressives has been to undermine and remove any form of national pride. How do you energize a nation at the same time?
The demoralisatoon of the masses was (and remains) all about domestic politics and normalising growing inequality. Also about motivating regime clients who get a thrill out of the provocations of gender fluidity, DEI and woke.
The sophistocastrati counted on poverty in the Rust Belt to maintain enlistment rates and fantasised that wars would all be expeditionary PR exercises conducted by bombing followed by light infantry and special forces.
Generals Gerasimov, Dvornikov, Surovikin etc (empowered by developments in air defense and ballistics) have revealed the limits of Washington's collective grasp of reality.
Geography allows the mistakes he alludes to, there is also the matter of priorities.
Geography will allow us to re-industrialize and rearm, we are rapidly.
Priorities it turns out were arming the Trident SLBMs with first strike fuses that allows us to take out the Russian main deterrent of land based missiles, this can be done inside their launch window [before they can launch].
Obama signed off on this, the Russians certainly know it.
Now the correct tack to take:
Atlantic Rim and PACRIM secure.
>in fairness it should have always been obvious that like England before us we shall not tolerate angry and covetous eyes gazing across the waves.
Hyperborea is fine, the Oceania must you know remain ....well...secure.
And ours, although we're always willing to 'defend the global commons'.
China is chastened by loss of Chip human capital.
The alliance is secure - with Europe now under our American boot- and no more foolish dalliances with Russia [France] or being bought up by China.
Populism is crushed in America, Canada, 5 eyes and Europe.
The Empire, or Turbo America, is secure at home and abroad.
The most dangerous domestic group of displaced American workers aka MAGA are getting factories back, in fact more jobs than can be filled already in manufacturing.
This is the tack to take, congratulations you've 'won'.
Congratulations Nico as well.
And strategically they have, Ukraine is a reconnaissance in force in Strategic terms.
A bit of quiet and perhaps they'll be a change at home among the elites, mankind survives. Off to space.
There is nothing of Pollyanna about your perspective. TurboAmerica is positioning itself for the interstate competition bound to come from the economic development of Asia and Latin America. And it no less, and no more, amoral about this than it was in the days of Teddy Roosevelt and the Great White Fleet, Woodrow Wilson or FDR.
The only fly in the ointment is that Russia is vastly better managed than it was under the Soviets. Russia's only disadvantage is the low rate of fertility. Beyond that Russia is supremely competitive and has one or two serious advantages over the US: its ability to provide quality STEM education en masse enables it to produce an abundance of scientists and engineers for both civilian and military purposes. Russian near-supremacy in space is a thing. The over-reliance on nuclear weapons by the US is a huge worry...there are no plans to renew arms limitations talks and these take years to get going, let alone conclude anything, and the last of the US/Russian agreements are set to expire in a few years.
I'd also note while China is too hesitant to challenge the US in the Western Pacific it can still constrain the US navy to a significant degree. The 7th Fleet is a disgrace (Fat Leonard for one!!!!!!!!!!, his recent escape and the incapacity of the authorities to re-arrest him suggests that the powers that be prefer to fix things with the minimum of publicity). Naval shipbuilding requires serious long-term commitment.
My reservations are domestic. The revival of industry will provide a future for much of the commons, but the decades ahead will be cruel for many. TurboAmerica will have to manage class and ethnic conflicts and competition under conditions of escalating complexity. Relations between the best people and the entitled strivers of the managerial and professional classes will be a challenge. Managing the expectations of the millennials and Zoomers will be especially difficult. I foresee drugs, porn and digital soporifics (entertainment) in inexhaustible quantities, blended with a degree of suitably adapted Woke.
Also the US is way too dependent on overseas born STEM graduates and the US has fallen behind Rusia in key areas of technology, above all aerospace. Fixing mass education is probably beyond TurboAmerica.
Finally, the renewal will be colourful, though it will disappoint many. I am impressed by the subtlety with which the system is cautiously cleaning up Panem. The best of the villains are retained (your senator for one) while expendables head off to retirement or consulting. The hysterics of the Left and Right will exhaust themselves with their b.s. but so far no Lamb and no Seventh Seal. When the Scarlet Woman of Washington douches you know that the same old game is just going to keep on as before.
Jan 14, 2023·edited Jan 14, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo
The Poles, unfortunately, managed to alienate everyone in their neighborhood, insisiting on relying on exclusively American support.
They're far from Washington, from that distance, they might as well be Afghanistan. When the C-17s eventually leave, Poles will be in for a very rude awakening.
Hungarian assistance is likely to be rhetorical or diplomatic. It is hard to see what else Hungary could provide.
Poland will anchor whatever remains of NATO in northern Europe after the alliance crumbles elsewhere, possibly within a year or two. Germany has no choice but to repair relations with Russia. Ditto France and Italy. The crunch comes in 2023...they are now using up gas in storage. There is no way that they can replenish those stores without Russian assistance.
Russia's current mobilisation suggests that Moscow is now becoming serious. It's aims have clearly changed. Instead of seeking Kiev's compliance with Minsk 1&2 and an end to the civil war in Ukraine, Moscow will soon begin to reset relationships with much of Europe. This can only be done by a blend of decisive victory in war and the applicatoon of energy policy. Germany is by far the only EU state of real importance to Moscow. France and Italy can wait, England is irrelevant and of no value. Poland is a nuisance, but no threat. It is being successfully deterred by the Russian troops in Belarus.
The great test shall be what role the Europeans play in the eventual fall of Kiev and Odessa and the various moves made as the Ukrainian state collapses into a supersized enclave well to the west of the Dnieper.
Jan 14, 2023·edited Jan 14, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo
Veto stuff.
The Germans will do everything to repair relations with Russia ASAP, I agree. They are mad about NS2 blown up, Poland's rhetoric, Ukraine's rhetoric, but they're giant pussies so they keep smiling and eating shit. However, being a pussy doesn't prevent someone from murderously seething underneath.
They would be insane not to seek a rapprochement. Disagree about the pussy remark...self-control and patience are essential here. Though the silence over Nordstream is uncanny.
There are rumours circulating to the effect that Germany and Russia are holding discrete talks. Mama Merkel's recent confession re Minsk could have been about filling the public in on what has really been happening and preparing the public for a change of direction.
NATO is unlikely to collapse, but it's close to implosion since February, as it was exposed as a poison to Western Europe's military readiness (the US keeps trouble away, why bother?).
Since it's US-centric, a focus shift, South Eastern Asia for example, would leave Europe naked.
What makes NATO even more of a joke is the Five Eyes: now that's a proper alliance. Many NATO members are just depos for the US military. Who is trusted more by Washington: Australia or Romania? One is a NATO member, the other is not.
" Not even Albania is interested in forming an alliance with Russia"
for some strange reason :), when they can choose, even the minnows like the Baltics and small Balkan countries choose NATO and the EU over whatever Russia offers (nothing, btw)
I don’t think it’s half full or half empty. It’s just stating the obvious. Russia doesn’t need an alliance with Albania anymore than NATO does. It’s like the Chappelle’s Show skit where he plays Black Bush and says that a “coalition of the willing” is joining the Iraq invasion and says that coalition includes Stankonia dropping Bombs Over Baghdad.
As a military alliance NATO is already dead. Nordstream killed it. A military alliance without trust is a fiction. The people showing up in Brussels are there for the chow hall. They are not fighting anybody. NATO is a diplomatic-political spectacle...the global equivalent of a Pride parade.
The Warsaw Pact was a drain on the USSR, as the non-Russian republics were on Russia itself. Territorial contraction has freed resources for development. The Russians love it. As for clumsy, when Uncle Sambo sends astronauts to the international space station, they need Russia to get them there and back. Russian air defences keep NATO out of Ukrainian air-space and Russia has hypersonic missiles iin service. How many hypersonic missiles has Sleepy Joe got?
BTW, who needs "fiction" when the harsh reality is that Russia went crazy and invaded another country... convincing many skeptical countries and persons about the need of NATO
"As for clumsy, when Uncle Sambo sends astronauts to the international space station, they need Russia to get them there and back."
Both the Cold War and the space race are over !!
The US and the rest of the planet can send their own satellites without Baikonur, thank you:
and when I say clumsy, as in modern logistics and stuff like that.
"Recruiting" semi-willing inmates isnt exactly what a major power does to inflate its numbers in battle
And artillery barrages arent that..impressive, thats sooo 1914.
And they were rather ineffective back then
Of all the positions of the modern right, the pro-Russian stance in some is probbly one of the most cringe, supporting a nation that is basically an international pariah for the next few years, having failed to become a valid alternative option to the liberal wokeism championed by the US and EU.
Absolutely. WW1 was an act of collective madness which killed off the best of Europe, opening up opportunities for empowerment for the crazies ever since.
There are many, many historical examples of nations struggling early on in conflicts that they underestimate the difficulty of before realizing their mistakes and changing the strategy. The American civil war was like this, and Russia itself has been through similar cases more than once.
I would think their victory over Napoleon and Hitler were somewhat similar: a bloody start and retreat followed by a ruthlessness with their men's lives and a kind of sullen inertia which simply refused to budge. Is this a known Russian tactic, to soak up losses whilst adjustments to tactics/logistics are made? This is what happened to a degree in the Winter War as well.
I don’t think their casualty rate is commensurate to previous wars in that regard—the retreat from Kherson, for example, was a proactive operation to avoid the risk of mass casualties. I think that if anything, their attempt to invade with such a small force was out of desire to avoid too many dead soldiers, and that maintaining a low casualty ratio is a priority for them that explains much of their strategic and tactical approach so far.
The Russian reputation for being indifferent to casualties is overblown.
There are vast battles over vast and largely open distances.
The West was similarly profligate on the Western Front in WW1.
In WW2 the German graveyard was of course the Eastern Front, the Stalingrad campaign may have cost 1 million German causalities.
The Russians didn't really have an enormous superiority on the Eastern Front, they were better at massing troops in unexpected numbers at the points of attack. They also were able to better mass artillery and tanks, later aircraft at the decisive points.
The truth of both situations the Western Front in WW1 and the Eastern Front of WW2 was part of the Allies solution-horribly-was they had to kill the excellent German armies they faced because the replacements never reached the same caliber. At the same time the allied troops got better. If in 1944 three or four high quality German divisions had been at Normandy the invasion would have failed.
Over the course of the last few days, I spotted an important indicator of the way the wind is blowing that most people seem to have overlooked: Israel, which is referred to in this article but not for this reason. When the wave of sanctions was unleashed upon Russia, the Israelis pointedly refused to join in. Equally, they have consistently and steadfastly refused to sell weapons to Ukraine.
The reasons for this are not hard to discern. The Russians control Syria and so, in effect, Israel shares a border with Russia. They need continuing Russian co-operation to keep their Northern border secure. There is no way the Israelis are going to antagonise Russia, regardless of the pressure from the GAE or the EU.
Last week, the new Israelis foreign minister made a speech which indicated that the Israelis are now tacking, albeit gradually, more towards Russia. I predict that they will soon cut Ukraine loose altogether.
The Israelis only ever act in their own best interests. I reckon their intelligence apparatus knows exactly what is happening on the ground in Ukraine and they have surmised that Russia is going to win. Moreover, they may also sense the relative decline of the GAE, realise they cannot count on it in future and looking to hedge their bets at the least, or even pivot away altogether towards the new Russia-Asia block.
Good points. Also, Israel has a very large Russian-speaking population. The EU is no friend while Russia is pragmatic and non- doctrinaire. Russia also seeks stability in the wider West Asian region while Washington has embraced full spectrum disruption. Add to this the visceral personal hostility towards Netanyahu from much of the Obama Admin and the irrationality of Washington's feud with its okdest allyies in West Asia (Saudi and Turkey). The centre of gravity politically in Israel is closer and more compatible with Putin's Russia than it is with wokeist TurboAmerica. Finally, the US may well have lost the arms race with Russia in aerospace, above all air defence and hypersonic.
TurboAmerica may well go after Netanyahu (just as it has Erdoğan and MBS).
Indeed. I have also learned that Netanyahu and Putin are actually very good friends and that matters, too. Furthermore, as adumbrated by Niccolo's comments, the ideology gap between US Jewry and Israelis is likely to widen over the coming years and may even grow hostile.
Everyone is friends with P. Xi, MBS, Modi, Imran Khan, Erdogan, Khatami, Widodo.
P. is loathed only in the West, above all in the Anglosphere.
P. Seems to appeal to two types: elites who no longer trust the West after witnessing what Washington did in Russia under Yeltsin (exacerbated by an order of magnitude by the current sanctions which are destroying faith in the US controlled global financial system), plus aspirationals who want something better than TurboAmerican oligarchy with Sado-Malthusian austerity, social engineering and insane wokeist provocations in place of cultural, social and family continuity. The middle classes of the global South fear Americanisation, because it now threatens them directly.
A decisive split between Israel and the bulk of US Jewry is all but guaranteed. The Israelis want to live. US Jews just want the social and political order established by the New Deal and Civil Rights Act to last forever. I'd put my dough on the Israelis...realism and self-interest work, sentimental and nostalgic politics does not.
"Israelis just want to live" The majority want much more than that, not just to live, but to continue the taking of land from the natives that Zionism is all about. American Jews are increasingly waking up to the ethnic cleansing project that Zionism has been from the start, but portrayed in propaganda from only one side that raises self-righteousness to the point of blindness toward the other.
Smartphone videos have punctured the hasbara wall. Beatings of Palestinians and burning of their olive trees while the IDF looks on do not go over well with US Jewry. Increasing numbers of people in a country that proclaims liberty and justice for all, that has made real progress in race relations and the status of women finds it hypocritical to be supporting without limit a country that daily practices the denial of civil rights to a people whose crime is to have been living on land wanted by Europeans out to secure the last colony.
Netanyahu will tack in any direction that will keep him in power and out of jail, but the Israel seen today is simply Zionism living up to its promise with no apology. The holocaust, history that cannot be changed, has been exploited for all it is worth and has worn thin. The reality of the plan that has been present all along, long before the holocaust, is laid bare for all to see as it is pursued with gusto.
As Black Bear wrote: "the ideology gap between US Jewry and Israelis is likely to widen over the coming years and may even grow hostile". This is already seen in the growth of Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) over the last two decades.
The violence of the Israelis is very real...as is the fact that their safety is secured by such means. Without it the Israelis would be extinct.
As for Europeans, slightly less than half of Israeli Jews are of European descent. The majority are of West Asian and African origin. Any discussion of civil rights within Israel needs to acknowledge regional norms, as well as the provisions of Islamic law and custom applied to Jews in the very Muslim lands from which so many Israeli Jews originate. The civil liberties of Israeli Muslims compare favourably with those of Muslims in the region. How the rights of formally stateless people in the West Bank compare with Kurds in Syria or the stateless Bedouin in parts of the northern Gulf is complicated.
Any resolution (should one be possible) will be based on mutual compromise and real world considerations of relative strength. The Palestinians are very ill-served by their friends and advocates and always have been. They know this perfectly well. At various times conflict in the region serves the interests of many parties...including the US and the EU (both finance the Palestinuan struggle as we can see from the palais in Paris owned by Arafat's widow).
As for US Jews, anti-Zionism is performative ethnomasochism that says more about the depthless dysfunction of people formed by current North American norms than it does about Israel or 'Zionism' (an ill-defined term that now illustrates the horror thinking people have fir the unexamined word). US Jews typically know little of Israeli politics and, quite stupidly, US politics as templare for their thinking. This is as unrealistic as anything from Foggy Bottom or academia.
Criticise Israel as harshly as you can (they certainly deserve some of it) but using it, or any country, as a Rorschach blot upon which to project anxieties camouflaged as ethics is simply silly.
Phillip, if foreigners set up a fortress in a foreign land, a colony, then you could say that without violence, without that fortress, those fortress dwellers would be extinct. Europeans gave this up, except for Israel. Israelis did not set up a country in Palestine at the invitation of the natives, and we had to go through the nonsense of the claim that Palestinians don't exist because Palestine was not an official country, irrelevant when thinking of human beings living in a place and being thrown out by foreigners.
You say that slightly less than half of Israelis are presently of European descent, but they were a huge majority at the founding of the state. The Mizrahim are latecomers to Israel, primarily from countries where they were ejected in response to the founding of Israel by European Jews.
Jews and Muslims have lived together in the area through history and racially it would be very hard to separate Arabs and Jews of the same lands. But it was the Ashkenazim, the European Jews, who founded Zionism and founded Israel. Herzl, Ben Gurion (not his original European name, he was Polish), Jabotinsky, Weizmann, etc were all European and the effort was to import more European Jews. Zionism was a plan, long before Hitler, for Jews to escape from Europe. In fact, Mizrahim have faced prejudice from the Ashkenazim. Ben Gurion, according to his biography, was severely disappointed that the holocaust had eliminated the very population of people like him that he hoped to see make up the population of Israel.
It is one thing to talk about mutual compromise, quite another to expect it when one side holds all the power and is backed by the unlimited support (up until quite recently) of the United States while the other side is powerless. Israel, the number 1 recipient of US foreign aid, not to mention frequent additional gifts from Congress, is a subject that has never been open for debate in Congress.
Now, after over 70 years, a word can be heard for the Palestinians and Representative Rashida Tlaib is Palestinian. But Congress remains captured by the Israel lobby. This is why there has been no cost to Israeli administrations, or American politicians, for empty talk about "the two-state solution" even as it was being made impossible by Israeli grabbing of land that has made the West Bank a scattered collection of Palestinian areas carefully separated by Israeli settlements, military sites, etc. See the highly detailed B'Tselem map of the West Bank ( https://www.btselem.org/map ) to see there is no place for a Palestinian state. Yet the two-state nonsense continues to be heard.
Your paragraph that begins "As for US Jews..." I cannot decipher. My experience with US Jews is that the most vocal in opposition to Zionism have been to Israel and the West Bank, have seen apartheid in action and are appalled with the project. "Not in My Name" is a group with a well chosen title. If US Jews are ignorant of Israel, as you say they are, it is not from not going there, but from being shown a very restricted view when they do go, carefully kept from the OT. There was a fuss with Birthright when a few of the kids on the standard trip asked to go into the West Bank and speak with Palestinians not selected for them to speak with by their Israeli guides.
American Jews have a unique privilege that tells the story of the injustice of Israel. They may stay in the US enjoying all the rights of any American, but they may also, simply by being Jewish, go to Israel and take land from the natives. In fact, they can have dual citizenship. The Palestinians who have no rights at all have no citizenship where they have lived for centuries.
For all the horrors of the taking of land from native-Americans, they are today full citizens with all the rights of any American and as such may live anywhere they wish, not being restricted to their reservations. The Palestinians not only lack any citizenship or law except that of the IDF (98% conviction rate in IDF courts) but have no land at all that a settler may not take tomorrow. They live in limbo with no end in sight. Ruins of a few of the towns where they lived are in sight (look up Lifta) but they cannot go there.
Jews have every right to live where they wish, including what was once Palestine. Jews do not have an exclusive right to a land from which they may freely eject the natives. Apartheid ended in South Africa. Israel will take a little longer, but as MLK said the arc of history bends toward justice. Americans are waking up with Jews leading the way.
I think many in the West simply don't understand the sheer will to win and therefore survive that the Israelis have. Very few know anything of '48, '67 or '73 and how close the first was, with some exciting bits in the latter as well. They went from near-extinction at the hands of the most efficient killing machine in human history to their own state in three years. They have little room for sentiment or fat on their carcass.
The West has become so sheltered, demilitarised and absorbed in infotainment that it increasingly resembles a reality-free zone, at least as far as its public culture goes. There is now a general agreement in much of the West that politics is or should be about values which are invariably otherworldly and ahistorical, whereas 99% of real world politics is about securing safety. It will be fascinating to see what results from the present war in Ukraine: a rebirth of realism or a further withdrawl into fantasy? I expect a bit of the former, more of the latter.
If the war ends with a clear Russian victory, then expect the whole issue of Ukraine to be stuffed down the memory-hole and that right quick. Ukraine never existed and there was no war. Any reference to it will be called "misinformation" or a "conspiracy theory"; the social media algorithms will be tweaked to shut down any videos or posts about the war and any claims that Russia won will be classified as hate speech.
Narrative mgt is integral to everything the regime does and as the unipolar moment recdes we shall see ever greater energy expended on maintaining the West's intellectual and cultural isolation from what is happening. Disruptive news about conditions in Russia is already successfully suppressed to a far greater degree than I had ever imagined possible.
Everything will depend on how Ukraine falls.
The real Russian threat is news of the growing prosperity and wellbeing there. This is way more threatening than shock-horror stories of Russian brutality or autocracy. People in India or the Mid East get it, but informed opinion in the West just cannot accept or process it.
This inability or even disinclination is what is terrifying: "Who cares that we were wrong about the Ukraine? There is a new Current Thing and no-one wants to talk about the Ukraine/lockdowns/race riots any more". The utter emptiness of the minds.
The regime is banking everything on the public having the memory of a goldfish.
If you like your analysis dry, here is a very, very good take on the synergies between the debt, military and geopolitical crises. Panem, Leviathan, Uncle Sam now relies on the geopolitical equivalent of the pay-day loan from Hell. It all makes for droll reading. Towards the end Crooke links to an article that in turn reveals that narrative mgt in the US is starting to get very personal and very heavy...an indication of how serious things are getting and also indicative of how much effort will go into suppressing public acknowledgement of reality.
Kabul hardly compares to what is heading for Kiev, Kharkov or Odessa.
They’re very pragmatic, there’s really no benefit to taking a strong side in this one for them. Furthermore I think they’re more hesitant about hopping on the latest state department venture after they unleashed the Arab spring
I don't see how this conflict would be a net positive to ANY party involved and I find that this is the point. Most of these pro-Russian and some of the pro-Western boomer analysts seem to still be living in a pre Cold War, pre-Internet world, where steel output was the marker of a successful economy and the Iron Curtain was still firmly in place. "Russia is pivoting towards Asia" - so the only real countries that could offer Russia the same growth benefits as the West are 1. China - a country who is in a economic death grip with the West (as you have mentioned yourself not once), 2 and 3 - Korea and Japan (lol). The other countries in the BRICS alliance are not even worth mentioning. This conflict will have global consequences and trying to choose a side is kind of like debating whether you should hide in the part of the house where there is an active fire or stay in the attic where all the smoke is. Even if Russia comes out victorious, and even if they somehow magically fix their demographic crisis, AND they somehow manage to do a China style market renaissance (in half the time mind you - which is still 20 years) - who are they going to work with?
I don't think the Russians are worried about not having anyone to work with; everyone loves a winner, as we shall see. Besides, their alternative is to sit on their hands and wait to be colour-revolutioned, dismantled and turned into "Globohomo On Ice".
Black Bear - Russians were winners in WW2 as well....So are many other countries, in other conflicts. People love working with people that make them money, and that is historically Russia's weakest link, which ultimately has barred them from being the Empire that could have truly been given all their geography and resources.
Bob - Europe needs something drastic to come back to its senses, but a sensible Europe would be hostile to both Russia and the US as they are and always have been either leeches of European culture or open enemies.
Feynmanovic, following WWII, Russians were saddled with communism. I rather think that that is what prevented them from advancing economically, not a lack of trade partners.
This is a truly non-starter argument. China was also saddled with communism. Mind you a much harsher and brutal version of it. Look where the two countries are now. Similarly look at Japan, Korea and Germany. All saddled with incredibly grave consequences immediately following the War. One should stop trying to blame the political regimes in a given nation and start asking what brought about such regimes in the first place. A little blackpilled, I do admit, but there is nevertheless some truth to it.
the anti-NATO disdain here simply blinds them about the obvious:
Russia is (for now) a pariah in the West, and will be so at least until Putin is gone.
Their economy surviving isnt the same as "thriving" and growing fast, as it probbly would if they still had plenty of commercial relatinships w Germany et al.
The Russian economy is fine, they're in good shape.
Long term if they can get their engineers into China to catch up on the Chip Factories China just lost to USA Passport* - then Russia makes it fine.
Unless we the people reindustrialize and are marched on them.
We the people are re-industrializing, our masters at last let us back into the factories they locked us out of...we'll need conscription, of course.
And we'll get it, of course.
Yes, we will.
*China suddenly had no new chips: a brilliant swindle by America, basically we educated their engineers here, gave them citizenship or visas , let them found businesses and prosper, they went back to China and tried to do it in China....Xi kept running his big mouth.....anaaannnddd - and last fall USA pulled the rug out: Dear American Educated and Be-Citizened Chinese Engineers - Choose: America and our dollars or be a Chinese Patriot and surrender your American passport. They ran out the door for the Dollars. - Brilliant, it restored my faith in some ability in our ruling class. China has no modern Chip industry or the human capital to build it now. Our Chinese really are smarter than China's Chinese.
Russia is resource rich. They don’t need to go begging for partners. The Chinese and Indians desperately need what they are offering and will for the foreseeable future.
We the USA have been marching East since the 1990s in the Balkans.
A lot of people in DC and elsewhere have done very well out of all this, and as for doing good, surely you can understand that Empire and Global Empire are goods in themselves?
Depending on your side of the trade.
Onto Moscow, and yes we are, and sadly I think at least 50/50 in the long run.
Little in the way of resource nationalism in Canada, which I suppose is a good thing if we wish to avoid a special military operation from our neighbours to the south.
Excellent edition. I especially appreciate getting a Russian perspective on the war. My general media diet is fairly poor (FT, WSJ, NYT). Your substack and a few others give me the media nutritional supplements I otherwise lack. Thanks.
Lively writing indeed. "Case in point: a Millennial woman just sat down behind me and started yapping about the elections. Something about taking away the racists’ ARs and you know the whole thing that they say and do. Apparently, she works for an NGO abroad now. Western women are a bio-weapon and we need to get some team of inspectors deployed to disarm and neutralize them ASAP." Thanks.
I hear you. I look for evidence not just posturing. There's a lot of posturing and little evidence in most materials out there (especially including NYT, WSJ, and FT) on most subjects. Makes skimming easy.
We all have our regular jobs, and we simply do not have the time to be experts on everything in the news, meaning that we have to outsource some of the work to journalists and writers. This means that we have to then learn to separate the wheat from the chaff when possible.
I can't help but notice agricultural fields planted gmo and heavily sprayed, just about everywhere. So. Indeed. In light of this information my view is it well could be the thoughts have spread around the planet but the deeds have not.
I worry that if/when Russia starts massive mobilizations of population and economy, they will reach the polish border to find a nation that has donated its whole army to kill its soldiers.
Motivation is one thing...capacity another. Russia's industrial base and technical/scientific resources give them a decisive military advantage. Russia just needs to deter Poland from attacking Kaliningrad and Belarus. Poland needs several of generations of Western re-industrialisation and by then the 'West' will not exist. At the moment thousands of Poles appear to have died in Ukrainian uniform. After a few thousand more and public opinion in Poland might start waking up. I would not bet that all Poles share either the perspectives or the interests of their political elites.
the hardest to understand is how the russian federation missed the years of nato armaments entering into ukraine!
and how they allowed themselves to be mollified by minz agenda.
i follow a lot more than usa mainstream blither.
to me this is atlanticists exploiting the civil war among slavs, including annexed rumanian and polish slavs stitched into ukraine by stalin. kiev brainwashing against russia is illicit.
my observation, and i am a retired us military officer, is russia has scarce reason for blitzkrieg, that is to roll through ukraine like rommel through france in 1940. long war wearing; down the eu and usa economics and exorbitantly expensive, low worth military hardware is a plan!
note modern tank formations require a huge amount of support and lakes of fuel, compared to the relatively light tanks rommel and guderian commanded in may 1940. kiev will scarce benefit from receiving newer german panzers.
worse, the goal of destabilizing russia is among the most immoral plans, an extension of nazi racism, liebensraum.
They did not miss anything,..they were preparing, building industrial capacity, stockpiling munitions and developing air defense and hypersonic missiles.
Putin was also prepping Russian opinion. The anti-Russian hysteria in the West since Feb 2022, above all in Europe, shocked ordinary Russians. They are now rallying around the Kremlin. This support would not necessarily have been as strong earlier. Russians were resigned, many unfazed, indifferent, to Ukrainian independence. That is no longer the case.
obvious to critical observer that russia is target for dismemberment same as syria, iraq and afghanistan, and much of africa! prc may have a similar claim to formosa as the us poacific presence is provisioned for war much like the usa provisioned ukraine since the color coup in 2014.
The strategy at work in Taiwan has similarities to the one is applied in Ukraine: use the issue of Taiwan to create the impression of weakness in Beijing, destabilise Xi, create conditions for a Chinese Gorbzchev, to be followed by a Chinese Yeltsin.
Hi Ed! Only thing that I can think of is that Russia was building up its war chest and ensuring continuation of good relations with non-western powers in run up to this fight.
Pushing Russia firmly into the global south camp (the fault lines along which the next major conflict seems to be developing) and obtaining a useless European vassal is a Pyrrhic victory for the Americans at best
Hit the like button above to like this entry and use the share button to share this across social media.
Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so (be nice!), and please consider subscribing if you haven't done so already. We are now testing out the chat feature on both Apple and Android phones. Learn more here - https://niccolo.substack.com/p/fisted-by-foucault-subscriber-chat
Your points about Russia display a nation that has a growing confidence in herself and a new purpose. I saw this in particular when Putin opened the new Cathedral of the Armed Forces. They have a certain spirit which the West does not.
I was trying to refer to this when disagreeing with your 'Turbo America' piece and others. Although America has secured some surprise victories these are the consequence of being a former hegemon and the decline not being overnight. She still has a lot of power but the corruption is to her core and cannot be repaired, I don't think. It doesn't mean America is not still dangerous but essentially she is weak and Europe needs to get out from under the collapse. Sadly, we do not appear to be doing anything to protect ourselves.
I’ve commented about this on here before, but Europes response in this conflict has been the most surprising to me. It pains me to watch a continent I’ve have respected from afar seemingly self immolate. I keep wondering what I’m not understanding in their response, as it seems to lead into no other direction than decline.
Niccolo, another great edition.
Reading about Russia, it occurred to me that we are seeing yet another instance, common enough throughout history, of nations being energised by conflict. War can bring people together.
The trouble is that the success of Putin's Russia may well inspire other regimes (including Washington) to a war-related programme. Countries beset by another and atomistic may well conclude that another war might be useful as an alternative to social or political unrest.
I wonder if it can bring together the US at this point. If Russia targeted some US embassy and more then maybe I could see it, but Russia has been far too careful for this so far.
The US in many ways is like the EU. We have an elite culture being forced on everyone and everything, from our elite institutions and corporations, rather than this debt mechanism found there. I would argue the results are similar: a loss of control and frustration felt deeply by a large portion of the population. It’s almost impossible for me to imagine the kind of attitude described by this Russian account being present in modern America.
It was present in 2001, but that patriotism and national pride has long turned sour and even rancid. Which is to say that the US has already had its moment of being energized by conflict, and the result of it was the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Russia maybe is playing their hand more intelligently, no shock and awe as of yet, which in hindsight was probably an overextension and the beginning of the steady erosion of US confidence and patriotic zeal.
It also strikes me that a big part of the project of the progressives has been to undermine and remove any form of national pride. How do you energize a nation at the same time?
The demoralisatoon of the masses was (and remains) all about domestic politics and normalising growing inequality. Also about motivating regime clients who get a thrill out of the provocations of gender fluidity, DEI and woke.
The sophistocastrati counted on poverty in the Rust Belt to maintain enlistment rates and fantasised that wars would all be expeditionary PR exercises conducted by bombing followed by light infantry and special forces.
Generals Gerasimov, Dvornikov, Surovikin etc (empowered by developments in air defense and ballistics) have revealed the limits of Washington's collective grasp of reality.
sophistocastrati
Philip reading now very influential STRATEGY by USSR Komdiv LTG Alexasandr Svechin - very influential now, purged in 1938 of course, revived in 90s.
Just started, but Gerasimov’s ancestor (another WW2 General) would likely have been instructed by him.
https://a.co/dyLNgIB
When you finish Svechin, you may be interested in this guy's stuff.
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Andrei-Martyanov/author/B07RDJ79W7?ref=ap_rdr&store_ref=ap_rdr&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true
I'm passingly familiar with his arguments.
Geography allows the mistakes he alludes to, there is also the matter of priorities.
Geography will allow us to re-industrialize and rearm, we are rapidly.
Priorities it turns out were arming the Trident SLBMs with first strike fuses that allows us to take out the Russian main deterrent of land based missiles, this can be done inside their launch window [before they can launch].
https://thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-is-undermining-strategic-stability-the-burst-height-compensating-super-fuze/
Obama signed off on this, the Russians certainly know it.
Now the correct tack to take:
Atlantic Rim and PACRIM secure.
>in fairness it should have always been obvious that like England before us we shall not tolerate angry and covetous eyes gazing across the waves.
Hyperborea is fine, the Oceania must you know remain ....well...secure.
And ours, although we're always willing to 'defend the global commons'.
China is chastened by loss of Chip human capital.
The alliance is secure - with Europe now under our American boot- and no more foolish dalliances with Russia [France] or being bought up by China.
Populism is crushed in America, Canada, 5 eyes and Europe.
The Empire, or Turbo America, is secure at home and abroad.
The most dangerous domestic group of displaced American workers aka MAGA are getting factories back, in fact more jobs than can be filled already in manufacturing.
This is the tack to take, congratulations you've 'won'.
Congratulations Nico as well.
And strategically they have, Ukraine is a reconnaissance in force in Strategic terms.
A bit of quiet and perhaps they'll be a change at home among the elites, mankind survives. Off to space.
I hardly think I'm being Pollyannish.
There is nothing of Pollyanna about your perspective. TurboAmerica is positioning itself for the interstate competition bound to come from the economic development of Asia and Latin America. And it no less, and no more, amoral about this than it was in the days of Teddy Roosevelt and the Great White Fleet, Woodrow Wilson or FDR.
The only fly in the ointment is that Russia is vastly better managed than it was under the Soviets. Russia's only disadvantage is the low rate of fertility. Beyond that Russia is supremely competitive and has one or two serious advantages over the US: its ability to provide quality STEM education en masse enables it to produce an abundance of scientists and engineers for both civilian and military purposes. Russian near-supremacy in space is a thing. The over-reliance on nuclear weapons by the US is a huge worry...there are no plans to renew arms limitations talks and these take years to get going, let alone conclude anything, and the last of the US/Russian agreements are set to expire in a few years.
I'd also note while China is too hesitant to challenge the US in the Western Pacific it can still constrain the US navy to a significant degree. The 7th Fleet is a disgrace (Fat Leonard for one!!!!!!!!!!, his recent escape and the incapacity of the authorities to re-arrest him suggests that the powers that be prefer to fix things with the minimum of publicity). Naval shipbuilding requires serious long-term commitment.
My reservations are domestic. The revival of industry will provide a future for much of the commons, but the decades ahead will be cruel for many. TurboAmerica will have to manage class and ethnic conflicts and competition under conditions of escalating complexity. Relations between the best people and the entitled strivers of the managerial and professional classes will be a challenge. Managing the expectations of the millennials and Zoomers will be especially difficult. I foresee drugs, porn and digital soporifics (entertainment) in inexhaustible quantities, blended with a degree of suitably adapted Woke.
Also the US is way too dependent on overseas born STEM graduates and the US has fallen behind Rusia in key areas of technology, above all aerospace. Fixing mass education is probably beyond TurboAmerica.
Finally, the renewal will be colourful, though it will disappoint many. I am impressed by the subtlety with which the system is cautiously cleaning up Panem. The best of the villains are retained (your senator for one) while expendables head off to retirement or consulting. The hysterics of the Left and Right will exhaust themselves with their b.s. but so far no Lamb and no Seventh Seal. When the Scarlet Woman of Washington douches you know that the same old game is just going to keep on as before.
So nice to have you back - very interesting re: German/English Romantics
I enjoyed that essay too.
The Poles, unfortunately, managed to alienate everyone in their neighborhood, insisiting on relying on exclusively American support.
They're far from Washington, from that distance, they might as well be Afghanistan. When the C-17s eventually leave, Poles will be in for a very rude awakening.
Hungarians will stand by them, if that matters.
Hungarian assistance is likely to be rhetorical or diplomatic. It is hard to see what else Hungary could provide.
Poland will anchor whatever remains of NATO in northern Europe after the alliance crumbles elsewhere, possibly within a year or two. Germany has no choice but to repair relations with Russia. Ditto France and Italy. The crunch comes in 2023...they are now using up gas in storage. There is no way that they can replenish those stores without Russian assistance.
Russia's current mobilisation suggests that Moscow is now becoming serious. It's aims have clearly changed. Instead of seeking Kiev's compliance with Minsk 1&2 and an end to the civil war in Ukraine, Moscow will soon begin to reset relationships with much of Europe. This can only be done by a blend of decisive victory in war and the applicatoon of energy policy. Germany is by far the only EU state of real importance to Moscow. France and Italy can wait, England is irrelevant and of no value. Poland is a nuisance, but no threat. It is being successfully deterred by the Russian troops in Belarus.
The great test shall be what role the Europeans play in the eventual fall of Kiev and Odessa and the various moves made as the Ukrainian state collapses into a supersized enclave well to the west of the Dnieper.
Veto stuff.
The Germans will do everything to repair relations with Russia ASAP, I agree. They are mad about NS2 blown up, Poland's rhetoric, Ukraine's rhetoric, but they're giant pussies so they keep smiling and eating shit. However, being a pussy doesn't prevent someone from murderously seething underneath.
They would be insane not to seek a rapprochement. Disagree about the pussy remark...self-control and patience are essential here. Though the silence over Nordstream is uncanny.
There are rumours circulating to the effect that Germany and Russia are holding discrete talks. Mama Merkel's recent confession re Minsk could have been about filling the public in on what has really been happening and preparing the public for a change of direction.
Rapallo#2 anyone?
"Poland will anchor whatever remains of NATO in northern Europe after the alliance crumbles elsewhere, possibly within a year or two."
Really?
how can possibly NATO colllapse?
The Warsaw pact did absolutely nothing to it.
You assume that a poorer and clumsier Russia can actually do this?
Sometimes, the anti-NATO attitude prevalent in the right wing is just COPE.
NATO is unlikely to collapse, but it's close to implosion since February, as it was exposed as a poison to Western Europe's military readiness (the US keeps trouble away, why bother?).
Since it's US-centric, a focus shift, South Eastern Asia for example, would leave Europe naked.
What makes NATO even more of a joke is the Five Eyes: now that's a proper alliance. Many NATO members are just depos for the US military. Who is trusted more by Washington: Australia or Romania? One is a NATO member, the other is not.
Albania is in NATO.
“Albania is in NATO” is one of the greatest savage takedowns I’ve seen in these comments. On point. 👌
Is it really?
Glass half full, half empty?
We can also say it in another simpler, nicer way:
" Not even Albania is interested in forming an alliance with Russia"
for some strange reason :), when they can choose, even the minnows like the Baltics and small Balkan countries choose NATO and the EU over whatever Russia offers (nothing, btw)
I don’t think it’s half full or half empty. It’s just stating the obvious. Russia doesn’t need an alliance with Albania anymore than NATO does. It’s like the Chappelle’s Show skit where he plays Black Bush and says that a “coalition of the willing” is joining the Iraq invasion and says that coalition includes Stankonia dropping Bombs Over Baghdad.
As a military alliance NATO is already dead. Nordstream killed it. A military alliance without trust is a fiction. The people showing up in Brussels are there for the chow hall. They are not fighting anybody. NATO is a diplomatic-political spectacle...the global equivalent of a Pride parade.
The Warsaw Pact was a drain on the USSR, as the non-Russian republics were on Russia itself. Territorial contraction has freed resources for development. The Russians love it. As for clumsy, when Uncle Sambo sends astronauts to the international space station, they need Russia to get them there and back. Russian air defences keep NATO out of Ukrainian air-space and Russia has hypersonic missiles iin service. How many hypersonic missiles has Sleepy Joe got?
"As a military alliance NATO is already dead. Nordstream killed it. A military alliance without trust is a fiction."
Ja wohl
repeat this until you believe it
Its soo dead that even the Brits are upping up their game in sending stuff to Ukraine:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755
or previously neutral countries are going to be members:
https://www.government.se/government-policy/sweden-and-nato/swedens-road-to-nato/
BTW, who needs "fiction" when the harsh reality is that Russia went crazy and invaded another country... convincing many skeptical countries and persons about the need of NATO
"As for clumsy, when Uncle Sambo sends astronauts to the international space station, they need Russia to get them there and back."
Both the Cold War and the space race are over !!
The US and the rest of the planet can send their own satellites without Baikonur, thank you:
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-ula-successfully-launch-weather-satellite-re-entry-tech-demo
and when I say clumsy, as in modern logistics and stuff like that.
"Recruiting" semi-willing inmates isnt exactly what a major power does to inflate its numbers in battle
And artillery barrages arent that..impressive, thats sooo 1914.
And they were rather ineffective back then
Of all the positions of the modern right, the pro-Russian stance in some is probbly one of the most cringe, supporting a nation that is basically an international pariah for the next few years, having failed to become a valid alternative option to the liberal wokeism championed by the US and EU.
Correct. NATO is not dead. They are now east of Kharkov.
Poland is going to be thoroughly pozzed and vibrantly diversified no later than 2040, I bet. Too bad.
Between the EU financed NGO's, the abortionists and the Ukrainians, Poland in 2040 will have the Nazis laughing in Hell.
Hitler's Revenge never fails. The World Wars fatally wounded the West and it's just bleeding out.
Absolutely. WW1 was an act of collective madness which killed off the best of Europe, opening up opportunities for empowerment for the crazies ever since.
There are many, many historical examples of nations struggling early on in conflicts that they underestimate the difficulty of before realizing their mistakes and changing the strategy. The American civil war was like this, and Russia itself has been through similar cases more than once.
I would think their victory over Napoleon and Hitler were somewhat similar: a bloody start and retreat followed by a ruthlessness with their men's lives and a kind of sullen inertia which simply refused to budge. Is this a known Russian tactic, to soak up losses whilst adjustments to tactics/logistics are made? This is what happened to a degree in the Winter War as well.
I don’t think their casualty rate is commensurate to previous wars in that regard—the retreat from Kherson, for example, was a proactive operation to avoid the risk of mass casualties. I think that if anything, their attempt to invade with such a small force was out of desire to avoid too many dead soldiers, and that maintaining a low casualty ratio is a priority for them that explains much of their strategic and tactical approach so far.
The Russian reputation for being indifferent to casualties is overblown.
There are vast battles over vast and largely open distances.
The West was similarly profligate on the Western Front in WW1.
In WW2 the German graveyard was of course the Eastern Front, the Stalingrad campaign may have cost 1 million German causalities.
The Russians didn't really have an enormous superiority on the Eastern Front, they were better at massing troops in unexpected numbers at the points of attack. They also were able to better mass artillery and tanks, later aircraft at the decisive points.
The truth of both situations the Western Front in WW1 and the Eastern Front of WW2 was part of the Allies solution-horribly-was they had to kill the excellent German armies they faced because the replacements never reached the same caliber. At the same time the allied troops got better. If in 1944 three or four high quality German divisions had been at Normandy the invasion would have failed.
Over the course of the last few days, I spotted an important indicator of the way the wind is blowing that most people seem to have overlooked: Israel, which is referred to in this article but not for this reason. When the wave of sanctions was unleashed upon Russia, the Israelis pointedly refused to join in. Equally, they have consistently and steadfastly refused to sell weapons to Ukraine.
The reasons for this are not hard to discern. The Russians control Syria and so, in effect, Israel shares a border with Russia. They need continuing Russian co-operation to keep their Northern border secure. There is no way the Israelis are going to antagonise Russia, regardless of the pressure from the GAE or the EU.
Last week, the new Israelis foreign minister made a speech which indicated that the Israelis are now tacking, albeit gradually, more towards Russia. I predict that they will soon cut Ukraine loose altogether.
The Israelis only ever act in their own best interests. I reckon their intelligence apparatus knows exactly what is happening on the ground in Ukraine and they have surmised that Russia is going to win. Moreover, they may also sense the relative decline of the GAE, realise they cannot count on it in future and looking to hedge their bets at the least, or even pivot away altogether towards the new Russia-Asia block.
Good points. Also, Israel has a very large Russian-speaking population. The EU is no friend while Russia is pragmatic and non- doctrinaire. Russia also seeks stability in the wider West Asian region while Washington has embraced full spectrum disruption. Add to this the visceral personal hostility towards Netanyahu from much of the Obama Admin and the irrationality of Washington's feud with its okdest allyies in West Asia (Saudi and Turkey). The centre of gravity politically in Israel is closer and more compatible with Putin's Russia than it is with wokeist TurboAmerica. Finally, the US may well have lost the arms race with Russia in aerospace, above all air defence and hypersonic.
TurboAmerica may well go after Netanyahu (just as it has Erdoğan and MBS).
Indeed. I have also learned that Netanyahu and Putin are actually very good friends and that matters, too. Furthermore, as adumbrated by Niccolo's comments, the ideology gap between US Jewry and Israelis is likely to widen over the coming years and may even grow hostile.
Everyone is friends with P. Xi, MBS, Modi, Imran Khan, Erdogan, Khatami, Widodo.
P. is loathed only in the West, above all in the Anglosphere.
P. Seems to appeal to two types: elites who no longer trust the West after witnessing what Washington did in Russia under Yeltsin (exacerbated by an order of magnitude by the current sanctions which are destroying faith in the US controlled global financial system), plus aspirationals who want something better than TurboAmerican oligarchy with Sado-Malthusian austerity, social engineering and insane wokeist provocations in place of cultural, social and family continuity. The middle classes of the global South fear Americanisation, because it now threatens them directly.
A decisive split between Israel and the bulk of US Jewry is all but guaranteed. The Israelis want to live. US Jews just want the social and political order established by the New Deal and Civil Rights Act to last forever. I'd put my dough on the Israelis...realism and self-interest work, sentimental and nostalgic politics does not.
"Israelis just want to live" The majority want much more than that, not just to live, but to continue the taking of land from the natives that Zionism is all about. American Jews are increasingly waking up to the ethnic cleansing project that Zionism has been from the start, but portrayed in propaganda from only one side that raises self-righteousness to the point of blindness toward the other.
Smartphone videos have punctured the hasbara wall. Beatings of Palestinians and burning of their olive trees while the IDF looks on do not go over well with US Jewry. Increasing numbers of people in a country that proclaims liberty and justice for all, that has made real progress in race relations and the status of women finds it hypocritical to be supporting without limit a country that daily practices the denial of civil rights to a people whose crime is to have been living on land wanted by Europeans out to secure the last colony.
Netanyahu will tack in any direction that will keep him in power and out of jail, but the Israel seen today is simply Zionism living up to its promise with no apology. The holocaust, history that cannot be changed, has been exploited for all it is worth and has worn thin. The reality of the plan that has been present all along, long before the holocaust, is laid bare for all to see as it is pursued with gusto.
As Black Bear wrote: "the ideology gap between US Jewry and Israelis is likely to widen over the coming years and may even grow hostile". This is already seen in the growth of Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) over the last two decades.
The violence of the Israelis is very real...as is the fact that their safety is secured by such means. Without it the Israelis would be extinct.
As for Europeans, slightly less than half of Israeli Jews are of European descent. The majority are of West Asian and African origin. Any discussion of civil rights within Israel needs to acknowledge regional norms, as well as the provisions of Islamic law and custom applied to Jews in the very Muslim lands from which so many Israeli Jews originate. The civil liberties of Israeli Muslims compare favourably with those of Muslims in the region. How the rights of formally stateless people in the West Bank compare with Kurds in Syria or the stateless Bedouin in parts of the northern Gulf is complicated.
Any resolution (should one be possible) will be based on mutual compromise and real world considerations of relative strength. The Palestinians are very ill-served by their friends and advocates and always have been. They know this perfectly well. At various times conflict in the region serves the interests of many parties...including the US and the EU (both finance the Palestinuan struggle as we can see from the palais in Paris owned by Arafat's widow).
As for US Jews, anti-Zionism is performative ethnomasochism that says more about the depthless dysfunction of people formed by current North American norms than it does about Israel or 'Zionism' (an ill-defined term that now illustrates the horror thinking people have fir the unexamined word). US Jews typically know little of Israeli politics and, quite stupidly, US politics as templare for their thinking. This is as unrealistic as anything from Foggy Bottom or academia.
Criticise Israel as harshly as you can (they certainly deserve some of it) but using it, or any country, as a Rorschach blot upon which to project anxieties camouflaged as ethics is simply silly.
Phillip, if foreigners set up a fortress in a foreign land, a colony, then you could say that without violence, without that fortress, those fortress dwellers would be extinct. Europeans gave this up, except for Israel. Israelis did not set up a country in Palestine at the invitation of the natives, and we had to go through the nonsense of the claim that Palestinians don't exist because Palestine was not an official country, irrelevant when thinking of human beings living in a place and being thrown out by foreigners.
You say that slightly less than half of Israelis are presently of European descent, but they were a huge majority at the founding of the state. The Mizrahim are latecomers to Israel, primarily from countries where they were ejected in response to the founding of Israel by European Jews.
Jews and Muslims have lived together in the area through history and racially it would be very hard to separate Arabs and Jews of the same lands. But it was the Ashkenazim, the European Jews, who founded Zionism and founded Israel. Herzl, Ben Gurion (not his original European name, he was Polish), Jabotinsky, Weizmann, etc were all European and the effort was to import more European Jews. Zionism was a plan, long before Hitler, for Jews to escape from Europe. In fact, Mizrahim have faced prejudice from the Ashkenazim. Ben Gurion, according to his biography, was severely disappointed that the holocaust had eliminated the very population of people like him that he hoped to see make up the population of Israel.
It is one thing to talk about mutual compromise, quite another to expect it when one side holds all the power and is backed by the unlimited support (up until quite recently) of the United States while the other side is powerless. Israel, the number 1 recipient of US foreign aid, not to mention frequent additional gifts from Congress, is a subject that has never been open for debate in Congress.
Now, after over 70 years, a word can be heard for the Palestinians and Representative Rashida Tlaib is Palestinian. But Congress remains captured by the Israel lobby. This is why there has been no cost to Israeli administrations, or American politicians, for empty talk about "the two-state solution" even as it was being made impossible by Israeli grabbing of land that has made the West Bank a scattered collection of Palestinian areas carefully separated by Israeli settlements, military sites, etc. See the highly detailed B'Tselem map of the West Bank ( https://www.btselem.org/map ) to see there is no place for a Palestinian state. Yet the two-state nonsense continues to be heard.
Your paragraph that begins "As for US Jews..." I cannot decipher. My experience with US Jews is that the most vocal in opposition to Zionism have been to Israel and the West Bank, have seen apartheid in action and are appalled with the project. "Not in My Name" is a group with a well chosen title. If US Jews are ignorant of Israel, as you say they are, it is not from not going there, but from being shown a very restricted view when they do go, carefully kept from the OT. There was a fuss with Birthright when a few of the kids on the standard trip asked to go into the West Bank and speak with Palestinians not selected for them to speak with by their Israeli guides.
American Jews have a unique privilege that tells the story of the injustice of Israel. They may stay in the US enjoying all the rights of any American, but they may also, simply by being Jewish, go to Israel and take land from the natives. In fact, they can have dual citizenship. The Palestinians who have no rights at all have no citizenship where they have lived for centuries.
For all the horrors of the taking of land from native-Americans, they are today full citizens with all the rights of any American and as such may live anywhere they wish, not being restricted to their reservations. The Palestinians not only lack any citizenship or law except that of the IDF (98% conviction rate in IDF courts) but have no land at all that a settler may not take tomorrow. They live in limbo with no end in sight. Ruins of a few of the towns where they lived are in sight (look up Lifta) but they cannot go there.
Jews have every right to live where they wish, including what was once Palestine. Jews do not have an exclusive right to a land from which they may freely eject the natives. Apartheid ended in South Africa. Israel will take a little longer, but as MLK said the arc of history bends toward justice. Americans are waking up with Jews leading the way.
I think many in the West simply don't understand the sheer will to win and therefore survive that the Israelis have. Very few know anything of '48, '67 or '73 and how close the first was, with some exciting bits in the latter as well. They went from near-extinction at the hands of the most efficient killing machine in human history to their own state in three years. They have little room for sentiment or fat on their carcass.
The West has become so sheltered, demilitarised and absorbed in infotainment that it increasingly resembles a reality-free zone, at least as far as its public culture goes. There is now a general agreement in much of the West that politics is or should be about values which are invariably otherworldly and ahistorical, whereas 99% of real world politics is about securing safety. It will be fascinating to see what results from the present war in Ukraine: a rebirth of realism or a further withdrawl into fantasy? I expect a bit of the former, more of the latter.
If the war ends with a clear Russian victory, then expect the whole issue of Ukraine to be stuffed down the memory-hole and that right quick. Ukraine never existed and there was no war. Any reference to it will be called "misinformation" or a "conspiracy theory"; the social media algorithms will be tweaked to shut down any videos or posts about the war and any claims that Russia won will be classified as hate speech.
Narrative mgt is integral to everything the regime does and as the unipolar moment recdes we shall see ever greater energy expended on maintaining the West's intellectual and cultural isolation from what is happening. Disruptive news about conditions in Russia is already successfully suppressed to a far greater degree than I had ever imagined possible.
Everything will depend on how Ukraine falls.
The real Russian threat is news of the growing prosperity and wellbeing there. This is way more threatening than shock-horror stories of Russian brutality or autocracy. People in India or the Mid East get it, but informed opinion in the West just cannot accept or process it.
This inability or even disinclination is what is terrifying: "Who cares that we were wrong about the Ukraine? There is a new Current Thing and no-one wants to talk about the Ukraine/lockdowns/race riots any more". The utter emptiness of the minds.
That can't be possible, no one has forgotten Kabul !
Right?
The regime is banking everything on the public having the memory of a goldfish.
If you like your analysis dry, here is a very, very good take on the synergies between the debt, military and geopolitical crises. Panem, Leviathan, Uncle Sam now relies on the geopolitical equivalent of the pay-day loan from Hell. It all makes for droll reading. Towards the end Crooke links to an article that in turn reveals that narrative mgt in the US is starting to get very personal and very heavy...an indication of how serious things are getting and also indicative of how much effort will go into suppressing public acknowledgement of reality.
Kabul hardly compares to what is heading for Kiev, Kharkov or Odessa.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/01/23/the-most-egregious-mistake/
They’re very pragmatic, there’s really no benefit to taking a strong side in this one for them. Furthermore I think they’re more hesitant about hopping on the latest state department venture after they unleashed the Arab spring
I don't see how this conflict would be a net positive to ANY party involved and I find that this is the point. Most of these pro-Russian and some of the pro-Western boomer analysts seem to still be living in a pre Cold War, pre-Internet world, where steel output was the marker of a successful economy and the Iron Curtain was still firmly in place. "Russia is pivoting towards Asia" - so the only real countries that could offer Russia the same growth benefits as the West are 1. China - a country who is in a economic death grip with the West (as you have mentioned yourself not once), 2 and 3 - Korea and Japan (lol). The other countries in the BRICS alliance are not even worth mentioning. This conflict will have global consequences and trying to choose a side is kind of like debating whether you should hide in the part of the house where there is an active fire or stay in the attic where all the smoke is. Even if Russia comes out victorious, and even if they somehow magically fix their demographic crisis, AND they somehow manage to do a China style market renaissance (in half the time mind you - which is still 20 years) - who are they going to work with?
I don't think the Russians are worried about not having anyone to work with; everyone loves a winner, as we shall see. Besides, their alternative is to sit on their hands and wait to be colour-revolutioned, dismantled and turned into "Globohomo On Ice".
Precisely.
If Europe would come to its senses, Russia would resume trading with them. It would be win-win.
What is this Europe of which you speak?
The State of Florida is more sovereign.
Legally and in fact any US State is more sovereign than Europe.
Europe is Puerto Rico del Este, it's just not as poor - Yet.
Europe is a collection of ethno-states. Renowned for its ability to induce waves of emigration to the rest of the world.
There is also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_(consort_of_Zeus)
Black Bear - Russians were winners in WW2 as well....So are many other countries, in other conflicts. People love working with people that make them money, and that is historically Russia's weakest link, which ultimately has barred them from being the Empire that could have truly been given all their geography and resources.
Bob - Europe needs something drastic to come back to its senses, but a sensible Europe would be hostile to both Russia and the US as they are and always have been either leeches of European culture or open enemies.
Feynmanovic, following WWII, Russians were saddled with communism. I rather think that that is what prevented them from advancing economically, not a lack of trade partners.
This is a truly non-starter argument. China was also saddled with communism. Mind you a much harsher and brutal version of it. Look where the two countries are now. Similarly look at Japan, Korea and Germany. All saddled with incredibly grave consequences immediately following the War. One should stop trying to blame the political regimes in a given nation and start asking what brought about such regimes in the first place. A little blackpilled, I do admit, but there is nevertheless some truth to it.
I agree
the anti-NATO disdain here simply blinds them about the obvious:
Russia is (for now) a pariah in the West, and will be so at least until Putin is gone.
Their economy surviving isnt the same as "thriving" and growing fast, as it probbly would if they still had plenty of commercial relatinships w Germany et al.
The Russian economy is fine, they're in good shape.
Long term if they can get their engineers into China to catch up on the Chip Factories China just lost to USA Passport* - then Russia makes it fine.
Unless we the people reindustrialize and are marched on them.
We the people are re-industrializing, our masters at last let us back into the factories they locked us out of...we'll need conscription, of course.
And we'll get it, of course.
Yes, we will.
*China suddenly had no new chips: a brilliant swindle by America, basically we educated their engineers here, gave them citizenship or visas , let them found businesses and prosper, they went back to China and tried to do it in China....Xi kept running his big mouth.....anaaannnddd - and last fall USA pulled the rug out: Dear American Educated and Be-Citizened Chinese Engineers - Choose: America and our dollars or be a Chinese Patriot and surrender your American passport. They ran out the door for the Dollars. - Brilliant, it restored my faith in some ability in our ruling class. China has no modern Chip industry or the human capital to build it now. Our Chinese really are smarter than China's Chinese.
Net positive for the USA for reasons I have outlined previously.
Russia is resource rich. They don’t need to go begging for partners. The Chinese and Indians desperately need what they are offering and will for the foreseeable future.
We the USA have been marching East since the 1990s in the Balkans.
A lot of people in DC and elsewhere have done very well out of all this, and as for doing good, surely you can understand that Empire and Global Empire are goods in themselves?
Depending on your side of the trade.
Onto Moscow, and yes we are, and sadly I think at least 50/50 in the long run.
Little in the way of resource nationalism in Canada, which I suppose is a good thing if we wish to avoid a special military operation from our neighbours to the south.
Excellent edition. I especially appreciate getting a Russian perspective on the war. My general media diet is fairly poor (FT, WSJ, NYT). Your substack and a few others give me the media nutritional supplements I otherwise lack. Thanks.
You might try https://www.rt.com/ or, if you like your op ed material blunt, there is Andrei Martyanov https://youtu.be/67q2fD-bHD8
Thank you.
Rolo of The Slavland Chronicles supplies interesting proudly-non-pc insights; and boy, he can write! 🔥
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/
Lively writing indeed. "Case in point: a Millennial woman just sat down behind me and started yapping about the elections. Something about taking away the racists’ ARs and you know the whole thing that they say and do. Apparently, she works for an NGO abroad now. Western women are a bio-weapon and we need to get some team of inspectors deployed to disarm and neutralize them ASAP." Thanks.
Be careful with the pro-Russian perspectives as a lot of them are just as shit as the pro-western ones.
I hear you. I look for evidence not just posturing. There's a lot of posturing and little evidence in most materials out there (especially including NYT, WSJ, and FT) on most subjects. Makes skimming easy.
We all have our regular jobs, and we simply do not have the time to be experts on everything in the news, meaning that we have to outsource some of the work to journalists and writers. This means that we have to then learn to separate the wheat from the chaff when possible.
I can't help but notice agricultural fields planted gmo and heavily sprayed, just about everywhere. So. Indeed. In light of this information my view is it well could be the thoughts have spread around the planet but the deeds have not.
I worry that if/when Russia starts massive mobilizations of population and economy, they will reach the polish border to find a nation that has donated its whole army to kill its soldiers.
Motivation is one thing...capacity another. Russia's industrial base and technical/scientific resources give them a decisive military advantage. Russia just needs to deter Poland from attacking Kaliningrad and Belarus. Poland needs several of generations of Western re-industrialisation and by then the 'West' will not exist. At the moment thousands of Poles appear to have died in Ukrainian uniform. After a few thousand more and public opinion in Poland might start waking up. I would not bet that all Poles share either the perspectives or the interests of their political elites.
Belarus is effectively a Russian protectorate now, so it's already the case.
The calculus will change if Ukraine gets neutralized. The idea of testing if NATO is a bluff or not could be very enticing.
Very insightful that the war in Ukraine is a win for USA and loss for Europe. Love your writing!
Thank you, Owen!
atlanticists run usa and eu media.
the hardest to understand is how the russian federation missed the years of nato armaments entering into ukraine!
and how they allowed themselves to be mollified by minz agenda.
i follow a lot more than usa mainstream blither.
to me this is atlanticists exploiting the civil war among slavs, including annexed rumanian and polish slavs stitched into ukraine by stalin. kiev brainwashing against russia is illicit.
my observation, and i am a retired us military officer, is russia has scarce reason for blitzkrieg, that is to roll through ukraine like rommel through france in 1940. long war wearing; down the eu and usa economics and exorbitantly expensive, low worth military hardware is a plan!
note modern tank formations require a huge amount of support and lakes of fuel, compared to the relatively light tanks rommel and guderian commanded in may 1940. kiev will scarce benefit from receiving newer german panzers.
worse, the goal of destabilizing russia is among the most immoral plans, an extension of nazi racism, liebensraum.
They did not miss anything,..they were preparing, building industrial capacity, stockpiling munitions and developing air defense and hypersonic missiles.
Putin was also prepping Russian opinion. The anti-Russian hysteria in the West since Feb 2022, above all in Europe, shocked ordinary Russians. They are now rallying around the Kremlin. This support would not necessarily have been as strong earlier. Russians were resigned, many unfazed, indifferent, to Ukrainian independence. That is no longer the case.
obvious to critical observer that russia is target for dismemberment same as syria, iraq and afghanistan, and much of africa! prc may have a similar claim to formosa as the us poacific presence is provisioned for war much like the usa provisioned ukraine since the color coup in 2014.
The strategy at work in Taiwan has similarities to the one is applied in Ukraine: use the issue of Taiwan to create the impression of weakness in Beijing, destabilise Xi, create conditions for a Chinese Gorbzchev, to be followed by a Chinese Yeltsin.
Hi Ed! Only thing that I can think of is that Russia was building up its war chest and ensuring continuation of good relations with non-western powers in run up to this fight.
agree, this is existential. but, usa and nato are the side running out of time, and hugely in debt.
as in 1940, when hitler decided to strike before France stabilized politically and economically.
soft soaping Minsk was meant to get a reaction quite a lot sooner
while trump may have played against the ‘plan’.
Pushing Russia firmly into the global south camp (the fault lines along which the next major conflict seems to be developing) and obtaining a useless European vassal is a Pyrrhic victory for the Americans at best