Wowzers 😱, You are really asking for it this time 🤔😆
Va Armchair Warlord( X)
Excellent video about the recent Yemeni antiship attacks in the Bab al-Mandeb by
@mercoglianos It's very noteworthy the Yemenis seem to be targeting ships at will despite the presence of a considerable USN force - with an ARG and multiple DDGs - in the area.
It's also quite interesting that CENTCOM reported one of the attacks (albeit an unsuccessful one) as using an "anti-ship ballistic missile," which is a genuinely rare type of weapon hitherto only known to be deployed by China. Have the Iranians developed one of their own?
By the way, the large US base in Djibouti is in very easy drone range of Yemen.
There are rumblings of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with the possibility a victorious Ethiopia sells the naval base in Assab to Russia. China already has it's own naval base in Djibouti so the Red Sea might start getting a bit crowded...
War is such a raw and emotional topic that it should be no surprise how many memorable anti-war songs there are. Especially given how many centuries have called for them.
War is good for your CREDIT CARD and MORTGAGE and ...well, the Internet we're typing on?
Arms merchant is a good way to go bankrupt especially in America.
The world you speak of doesn't exist.
Most of the military costs - 60% + are personnel.
The "BIG 5" are the 5 emaciated survivors of the mythical MIC, their combined profits are less than half of WALMART. In 2020 that was BIG5= $246B. WALMART $523B.
It's darkly comforting to think someone's in charge and someone's got this ...even if they're evil...but no, no one does.
The Chief Beneficiary of American Military Might?
Everyone who does business with Dollars.
Everyone who wants to borrow money aka Credit in America, Europe, Japan...
And Latin America.
War is good for CREDIT MONEY.
Or perhaps the reader is that no debt, owns everything, no credit cards , and I guess homespun clothes and Granny's Homeopathic Health Care only?
Well, OK - how doth ye get on the Interwebz to read this , Goodly Peaceful Person?
Bro so much has happened since the start of the decade. It’s just spread out and incremental so we become instantaneously inoculated to whatever change comes our way. It’s just like the boiled frogs experiment, which although that was a sham, it still serves as an apt metaphor for our circumstances. But you have to keep in mind how situations develop at scale throughout history. They are years if not decades long processes. We are watching a new global paradigm emerge before our very eyes, but such things do not happen overnight. But they do happen.
Donald Trump is a massive wild card going into 2024. I have already mentioned elsewhere that I am collecting my thoughts on this and will put them into an essay over Christmas holidays.
The acceleration that started in 2016 is unprecedented. We were going into a normal election cycle and had the borg candidate and whatever warmonger the republicans were going to settle for and then everything went insane. The cart has been going down into the abyss ever since.
I think a lot of this is that the democrats cleared the decks for Hillary for almost two decades and when she lost they had nothing. Wtf. There isn’t some Senator or house committee chair or someone who is under 80 and not a blithering idiot? No, there isn’t, because anyone who might have been a threat to Hillary was kneecapped. So we get the dregs from the bottom of the pit. Joe Biden. No, not moron incompetent corrupt laughingstock 1988 Joe Biden, we got whatever this shambling wreck is.
Any one of these things would've been era- defining in the nineties. The criteria for 'something happening' are now so high that nothing short of nuclear war is impressive.
What 2016 trace riots? Is this posted from some alternate timeline. The Ferguson Mike Brown business happened in late 2104, the Baltimore Freddie Gray thing in 2015.
It seems to be almost an inevitability at this point that sooner or later the Ukrainians will realise, if they haven't already, that they've been played and used up as cannon fodder. What do you reckon would be their most likely reaction to this realisation?
Probably a coup. Ukrainian military officials are already unilaterally negotiating with the Russian military because nothing is getting done by the Zelensky administration on the diplomatic front.
It depends on which group of Ukrainians you're talking about. Some will mutter and accept it. On the other end of the spectrum, some hardcore elements might seek revenge. Others could simply move West, knowing that they lost and their future at home won't be bright.
Regarding Ukraine there's Diane Francis who argues that Putin is far more dangerous than people realize and he won't stop at Ukraine. Others (this is the camp I'm in) he's reacting to provocation form the US and that the US sabotaged any attempts to end the war early.
We'll see how much success the Israelis have shipping off a million radicalized Palestinians. Hope to God US dems lose power before they can let in that swarm. I wish for the Palestinians a safe and peaceful home in Palestine.
I understand that probably ain't in the cards, but as long as those two groups are going to kill each other forever, I'd defund them all and let them fight with rocks and sticks.
The Jordanians, Lebanese, Egyptians, and Israelis don't want them, which apparently means Western Europe and the USA must take them or something (sigh)
Yes, "but"... more than 3/4 of the original Palestine Mandate (77%) was taken from Israel (Palestine) and given to the Hashemites, as "Transjordan" (now, Jordan). Jordan might not want 'em, but Jordan IS "Palestine" -- Gaza AND those pesky "Pals" in "the West Bank". Tough nuggies, for all of them.
No. When the original (British Mandate) "Palestine" was arbitrarily and unilaterally divvied-up, ISRAEL declared its independence and (Trans)Jordan inherited the Arabs (there were none of today's ersatz "Palestinians" -- they were economic migrants from Egypt, Morocco, and elsewhere).
Not sure that logic necessarily applies. Palestinians receive refugee status via a separate definition developed exclusively for them by the UN. Palestinian refugees are "persons whose regular place of residence was Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 conflict". This is now extended to their descendants. [NB the definition would technically cover Jews ethnically cleansed by the Jordanians from East Jerusalem in 1948].
The general definition applied by the 1951 refugee convention is quite different. Permanent resettlement of any refugees is contingent on the agreement of the government that agrees to receive them. Neither Israel nor any other state is actively obliged to resettle refugees of either sort. Signatories of the 1951 convention merely have an obligation to provide refuge.
Kissinger apparently suggested as much just before he died.
The question of Palestinian statehood and refugee resettlement essentially comes down to a choice between the West Bank or Jordan becoming New Gaza.
For obvious reasons the Israelis prefer the latter.
Honest discussion of the pros and cons is impossible because way too many countries have invested political capital in the notion that the establishment of a Palestinian state would miraculously stabilise the region. The truth, unbearable for most, is that the burden of instability falls on one side of the Jordan or another. Given the importance of Sa'udi Arabia the West wants the burden to lie west of the river...as far as possible from the oil-fields.
Three companies of Luxembourgian Cavalry of the famed Luxembourgian First Cavalry Brigade attempted the last charge of the ancien regime of the West. Backed by gefrieters of the Bulgarian Queens Guard, who formed square to resist the onrushing T-73s. they inflicted many casualties, some on the enemy, but their bravery was not enough to carry the day, nor the era.
Russia appears to be pretty firmly in the drivers seat with its war in Ukraine. There’s been a flurry of articles in the last month that paint a pretty bleak picture for Ukraine and its war effort. With US attention waning and the Europeans growing frustrated I wonder if there comes a point where the Ukrainian Army just completely breaks and Russia is able to roll up to Kiev.
When the war started I thought a quick Russian victory would be the best outcome for everyone, including Ukraine. The worst outcome would be a long war that Russia loses and threatens to go nuclear. Luckily the latter seems to be avoided but the amount of blood and treasure wasted is truly tragic.
This is my one caveat with your assertion of the US being the big winner in the war. Yes, the US cleaved Russia off from Europe, in that regard the US “won”, But the war has also shown the world the very real limits of US hegemonic power. The US can’t supply enough weapons for a real peer level conflict, can’t recruit enough soldiers despite huge incentives and propaganda, and can’t afford to fund wars without huge damage to its economy. I don’t think it will be long till others start testing the US military commitment to places like Taiwan(and many others!).
Israel seems to be making steady progress in Gaza. Talking to a few Israelis and no one seems interested in peace with Hamas right now. The protests and confrontations in the US and Europe in support of Hamas(or the Palys if you're being generous), seem to have convinced many Israelis that this is the last time they will have a militarily free hand to deal with the problem, and consequently they are going hard on Gaza. I have trouble feeling any sympathy for Gaza at this point, they seem to be fully in support of their own silly martyrdom. It’s not unlike watching a cop's bodycam where every reasonable request from the cop makes the person more and more angry until they finally chimp out and end up dead and fundraising for BLM. Tragic, but predictable.
Latest polling shows skyrocketing support for Hamas in the West Bank (75%!). Not only do Palestinians overwhelmingly support the Oct 7th massacres considered in the abstract, they support them as a matter of practical policy and think 15,000 dead and counting is a price well worth paying.
The number dead is completely immaterial to me, before ~1970 it wouldn't have mattered much to anyone. As far as I'm aware Israel would accept a surrender by Hamas. Up until Hamas surrenders, the deaths are on them.
Of course they support it. When a people are under attack against the enemy, they will be united against them v their own. “don’t even take sides against the family.”
After a certain point they have to realize they are beat and are never going to win. Whether that takes 20,000 dead or 2,000,000 is up to them. War suffers no fools.
That's stupid people talk. Netanyahu is much less popular than he was on October 6th despite 'being under attack' because Israelis have basic critical thinking capabilities, even many Mizrahim.
The Palestinians have gained almost no tangible benefits from the October 7th massacres. The only thing they have got is the release of 150 prisoners, but based on previous experience they could have got five times that much had they just kidnapped a single soldier (that's even leaving aside the question of whether Palestinians are better off with miscellaneous hoodlums and criminal psychopaths being released from prison). What they have lost is 1.8 million people displaced, 15,000 dead. In addition to this they have befouled their people by slaughtering Israeli peace activists and conscientious objectors who took Palestinians into their homes, arranged for their medical care, and dedicated their life to their welfare.
The most charitable way of interpreting the massive jump in support for Hamas after this morally and strategically disastrous act is that Palestinians want to roll the dice on getting the whole land and are willing to commit any act, and bear any price, to do so. The logical consequence of that is that they must be utterly crushed, over and over again until they give up.
But there is a less charitable explanation, which fits the data even better, namely that murdering Israelis *is the Palestinian cause*. It is not a means to an end; it is the end. The logical consequence is the same, but just more so.
"I wonder if there comes a point where the Ukrainian Army just completely breaks and Russia is able to roll up to Kiev."
The Russkies could have rolled up to Kiev at least a month ago. It's telling that they haven't, even though they destroyed the last vestiges of Ukraine's professional army this past summer during the latter's doomed counter offensive.
Only women and 40-year-olds now stand in their way. We're fortunate that Putin is not, in fact, the mad imperialist NYT et al portrays him as---because he currently commands the most powerful and battle-hardened military on the planet.
"Close review of Gaza casualty figures reported by UN OCHA based on daily Hamas “Ministry of Health” numbers proves they are FALSIFIED. Women & children are grossly inflated. This is easily proven but media ignores."
Specific details like that I will leave to others and wait for the dust to eventually settle. It's easy to get lost in those details, sorting out fact from fiction, and my preference has always been to focus on the bigger picture.
1) No breaking out of combatants 2) 70% or so are women and children.....and btw, we don't know the age range used to denote "children" 3) So, 30% are men including combatants. (Of course, we don't know how they identify.)
Israel gave up Gaza in 2005, forcibly removing 800 Israeli business owners and residents. It was very hard and painful for those families, but the move was approved by the Sharon Gov't. The businesses were ready to be taken over ~ greenhouses, car repair shops etc. Fatah was in control at this point.
Hamas was voted in in 2007; there have been no elections since.
The checkpoints in Israel were instituted when hundreds of rockets rained down on Southern Israel; the pipe bombs were constructed from water pipes left from the Israeli residents.
Since 2007, it's been nothing but provocation, rockets and terror attacks.
October 7 2023 changed EVERYTHING. Obviously, Israel cannot live with an Iranian backed terror group next door. Hamas itself has stated that they will invade again and again until all Jews are dead Jews. Civilians allowed to work in Israel provided maps of towns and settlements and many civilians participated in the slaughter and unspeakable acts of brutality.
Hamas is using it's population as human shields, they readily admit to this, as well as confirmation from Egypt and UNHR observers.
If you're going to field the "proportional response" line, stuff it. Israel could wipe out Gaza in 20 minutes, tops. But they are not. They are sending texts and raining down leaflets to warn civilians of bombing of targets.
Any double standards applied to Israel is rank Antisemitism.
And I for one am not going to take it for one more minute.
If one of the manifestations of antisemitism is an unhealthy obsession with Jews, the Gaza war is a 24/7 example. No conflict in recent history—not the massacre of 500,000 people in Syria, 400,000 in Yemen, or the vicious civil war still raging in Sudan today—achieved a fraction of the media’s fascination with Gaza.
I’d be inclined to agree. I think Israel and the Middle East take up too much American attention but then again I’d prefer if we disengaged from there and let both sides do whatever they want. All the focus on Gaza and Israel is because both sides want there to be attention on it.
The region absorbs attention because the global financial system revolves around the petrodollar. Without the petrodollar the American standard of living would be vastly lower.
What disturbs me about the current war is the way it is being consumed as entertainment. Even otherwise intelligent people are now wallowing in vicarious experience via mass, alternative and social media. The whole thing creeps me out.
Perhaps, but can you actually name a single one amongst the senior executive ranks of the intelligence services, the defence chiefs and most senior commanders of the combat wing of the military, the diplomatic corps? The Biden Administration certainly has neo-cons and neo-liberals (who are pro-Israel) but no Christian Zionists that I have heard of.
The truly scary thing about Washington for me is its incompetence and corruption, not the beliefs of the Bible Belt.
Sorry, a good try, but Mike Johnson is not part of the Biden Administration, he is a congressman. Neither Mike Pompeo nor Mike Pence holds any position within the current executive branch of government.
Where do you information on conflicts? I find it so hard to get accurate unbiased information on Ukraine and Israel Gaza. So much propaganda and misleading information.
I will insert some sources re: war in Ukraine in the upcoming essay. Gaza is too fresh and far too close to Americans to be able to sort fact from fiction for now.
Hit the like button at the top of the page (or bottom) to like this entry. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so.
This upcoming essay on the War in Ukraine is going to try to be as comprehensive as possible, and will strain to be of a high standard of quality too.
Wowzers 😱, You are really asking for it this time 🤔😆
Va Armchair Warlord( X)
Excellent video about the recent Yemeni antiship attacks in the Bab al-Mandeb by
@mercoglianos It's very noteworthy the Yemenis seem to be targeting ships at will despite the presence of a considerable USN force - with an ARG and multiple DDGs - in the area.
It's also quite interesting that CENTCOM reported one of the attacks (albeit an unsuccessful one) as using an "anti-ship ballistic missile," which is a genuinely rare type of weapon hitherto only known to be deployed by China. Have the Iranians developed one of their own?
By the way, the large US base in Djibouti is in very easy drone range of Yemen.
https://youtu.be/Fkzgt4YvwLw?si=Z4mfQBOouHJPxJfn
There are rumblings of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with the possibility a victorious Ethiopia sells the naval base in Assab to Russia. China already has it's own naval base in Djibouti so the Red Sea might start getting a bit crowded...
“War! What is it good for?”
Arms merchants of course.
I was tempted to quote that line in the subheader!
Something about great minds think alike?
Or are we just NPCs quoting song lyrics?
War is such a raw and emotional topic that it should be no surprise how many memorable anti-war songs there are. Especially given how many centuries have called for them.
The minstrel boy to the war is gone
In the ranks of death you'll find him
His father's sword he hath girded on
And his wild harp slung behind him
"Land of Song" cried the warrior bard
"Tho' all the world betrays thee
One sword, at least, thy rights shall guard
One faithful harp shall praise thee"
The minstrel fell but the foeman's chain
Could not bring that proud soul under
The harp he lov'd ne'er spoke again
For he tore its chords asunder
And said, "No chains shall sully thee
Thou soul of love and brav'ry
Thy songs were made for the pure and free
They shall never sound in slavery
War was fine for the Balkans, as was American and "NATO" airpower.
It's why, however long it lasts, there's independent Balkan nations.
Until a few years after we leave Europe, and we are...
or a few months.
[-I am unable to resist temptation in the morning, and to respond to detraction in kind.
Amen-].
Say it again!!!
War is good for your CREDIT CARD and MORTGAGE and ...well, the Internet we're typing on?
Arms merchant is a good way to go bankrupt especially in America.
The world you speak of doesn't exist.
Most of the military costs - 60% + are personnel.
The "BIG 5" are the 5 emaciated survivors of the mythical MIC, their combined profits are less than half of WALMART. In 2020 that was BIG5= $246B. WALMART $523B.
It's darkly comforting to think someone's in charge and someone's got this ...even if they're evil...but no, no one does.
The Chief Beneficiary of American Military Might?
Everyone who does business with Dollars.
Everyone who wants to borrow money aka Credit in America, Europe, Japan...
And Latin America.
War is good for CREDIT MONEY.
Or perhaps the reader is that no debt, owns everything, no credit cards , and I guess homespun clothes and Granny's Homeopathic Health Care only?
Well, OK - how doth ye get on the Interwebz to read this , Goodly Peaceful Person?
Is something ever going to happen? Or are we in a perceptual state of nothing ever happens?
Bro so much has happened since the start of the decade. It’s just spread out and incremental so we become instantaneously inoculated to whatever change comes our way. It’s just like the boiled frogs experiment, which although that was a sham, it still serves as an apt metaphor for our circumstances. But you have to keep in mind how situations develop at scale throughout history. They are years if not decades long processes. We are watching a new global paradigm emerge before our very eyes, but such things do not happen overnight. But they do happen.
Donald Trump is a massive wild card going into 2024. I have already mentioned elsewhere that I am collecting my thoughts on this and will put them into an essay over Christmas holidays.
You act as if a Third Intifada isn’t “something happening”
The acceleration that started in 2016 is unprecedented. We were going into a normal election cycle and had the borg candidate and whatever warmonger the republicans were going to settle for and then everything went insane. The cart has been going down into the abyss ever since.
I think a lot of this is that the democrats cleared the decks for Hillary for almost two decades and when she lost they had nothing. Wtf. There isn’t some Senator or house committee chair or someone who is under 80 and not a blithering idiot? No, there isn’t, because anyone who might have been a threat to Hillary was kneecapped. So we get the dregs from the bottom of the pit. Joe Biden. No, not moron incompetent corrupt laughingstock 1988 Joe Biden, we got whatever this shambling wreck is.
And we’ll like it!
This is it for me, the dawning of an age of Cringe happened in 2016, seems to be the hallmark of whatever deep state move is happening at the time.
You should know the Deep State is very Shallow, Stupid, Fat Women.
And a bunch of henpecked by office wives men looking for the door.
Maybe the DS could do a Hallmark Greetings Card series?
🤔
❤️ you 🇺🇸 from the IC 🕵🏻👀
I know what you mean but you've forgotten:
- Brexit
- Trump
- CORONA!!!!!
- Ukraine
- 2016 American race riots
- Dodginess during the American election in 2020
- New immigration crisis in Europe and America
Any one of these things would've been era- defining in the nineties. The criteria for 'something happening' are now so high that nothing short of nuclear war is impressive.
Re: 2016 American race riots
What 2016 trace riots? Is this posted from some alternate timeline. The Ferguson Mike Brown business happened in late 2104, the Baltimore Freddie Gray thing in 2015.
No, I made a typo: 2020.
It seems to be almost an inevitability at this point that sooner or later the Ukrainians will realise, if they haven't already, that they've been played and used up as cannon fodder. What do you reckon would be their most likely reaction to this realisation?
Probably a coup. Ukrainian military officials are already unilaterally negotiating with the Russian military because nothing is getting done by the Zelensky administration on the diplomatic front.
Or like a friend of mine, many have left and will continue to so (men, women and children).
Yeah depopulation and then repopulating with Russians.
It depends on which group of Ukrainians you're talking about. Some will mutter and accept it. On the other end of the spectrum, some hardcore elements might seek revenge. Others could simply move West, knowing that they lost and their future at home won't be bright.
Regarding Ukraine there's Diane Francis who argues that Putin is far more dangerous than people realize and he won't stop at Ukraine. Others (this is the camp I'm in) he's reacting to provocation form the US and that the US sabotaged any attempts to end the war early.
These absolute ghouls. No amount of death is too much for them. No shame, no conscience. No lessons learned.
It is utterly unsatisfying being right about them.
We'll see how much success the Israelis have shipping off a million radicalized Palestinians. Hope to God US dems lose power before they can let in that swarm. I wish for the Palestinians a safe and peaceful home in Palestine.
I understand that probably ain't in the cards, but as long as those two groups are going to kill each other forever, I'd defund them all and let them fight with rocks and sticks.
I wish for the Palestinians a safe and peaceful home in Jordan.
There, I fixed it for you.
I don't want anyone to have to move because more powerful people don't want them around.
The Jordanians, Lebanese, Egyptians, and Israelis don't want them, which apparently means Western Europe and the USA must take them or something (sigh)
"The Jordanians... don't want them."
Yes, "but"... more than 3/4 of the original Palestine Mandate (77%) was taken from Israel (Palestine) and given to the Hashemites, as "Transjordan" (now, Jordan). Jordan might not want 'em, but Jordan IS "Palestine" -- Gaza AND those pesky "Pals" in "the West Bank". Tough nuggies, for all of them.
By that logic Israel is also Palestine and thus should also take in Palestinian refugees
No. When the original (British Mandate) "Palestine" was arbitrarily and unilaterally divvied-up, ISRAEL declared its independence and (Trans)Jordan inherited the Arabs (there were none of today's ersatz "Palestinians" -- they were economic migrants from Egypt, Morocco, and elsewhere).
Not sure that logic necessarily applies. Palestinians receive refugee status via a separate definition developed exclusively for them by the UN. Palestinian refugees are "persons whose regular place of residence was Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 conflict". This is now extended to their descendants. [NB the definition would technically cover Jews ethnically cleansed by the Jordanians from East Jerusalem in 1948].
The general definition applied by the 1951 refugee convention is quite different. Permanent resettlement of any refugees is contingent on the agreement of the government that agrees to receive them. Neither Israel nor any other state is actively obliged to resettle refugees of either sort. Signatories of the 1951 convention merely have an obligation to provide refuge.
Kissinger apparently suggested as much just before he died.
The question of Palestinian statehood and refugee resettlement essentially comes down to a choice between the West Bank or Jordan becoming New Gaza.
For obvious reasons the Israelis prefer the latter.
Honest discussion of the pros and cons is impossible because way too many countries have invested political capital in the notion that the establishment of a Palestinian state would miraculously stabilise the region. The truth, unbearable for most, is that the burden of instability falls on one side of the Jordan or another. Given the importance of Sa'udi Arabia the West wants the burden to lie west of the river...as far as possible from the oil-fields.
Ukraine and Russia forming an alliance and marching to The Channel unopposed.
Three companies of Luxembourgian Cavalry of the famed Luxembourgian First Cavalry Brigade attempted the last charge of the ancien regime of the West. Backed by gefrieters of the Bulgarian Queens Guard, who formed square to resist the onrushing T-73s. they inflicted many casualties, some on the enemy, but their bravery was not enough to carry the day, nor the era.
Why fight over a bunch of pensioners in commie block hell cities, when Hamburg can be your oyster?
The advantage to this situation would be mass ethnic cleansing of all the spicy-food-enjoyers who have so recently arrived.
Russia appears to be pretty firmly in the drivers seat with its war in Ukraine. There’s been a flurry of articles in the last month that paint a pretty bleak picture for Ukraine and its war effort. With US attention waning and the Europeans growing frustrated I wonder if there comes a point where the Ukrainian Army just completely breaks and Russia is able to roll up to Kiev.
When the war started I thought a quick Russian victory would be the best outcome for everyone, including Ukraine. The worst outcome would be a long war that Russia loses and threatens to go nuclear. Luckily the latter seems to be avoided but the amount of blood and treasure wasted is truly tragic.
This is my one caveat with your assertion of the US being the big winner in the war. Yes, the US cleaved Russia off from Europe, in that regard the US “won”, But the war has also shown the world the very real limits of US hegemonic power. The US can’t supply enough weapons for a real peer level conflict, can’t recruit enough soldiers despite huge incentives and propaganda, and can’t afford to fund wars without huge damage to its economy. I don’t think it will be long till others start testing the US military commitment to places like Taiwan(and many others!).
Israel seems to be making steady progress in Gaza. Talking to a few Israelis and no one seems interested in peace with Hamas right now. The protests and confrontations in the US and Europe in support of Hamas(or the Palys if you're being generous), seem to have convinced many Israelis that this is the last time they will have a militarily free hand to deal with the problem, and consequently they are going hard on Gaza. I have trouble feeling any sympathy for Gaza at this point, they seem to be fully in support of their own silly martyrdom. It’s not unlike watching a cop's bodycam where every reasonable request from the cop makes the person more and more angry until they finally chimp out and end up dead and fundraising for BLM. Tragic, but predictable.
Thanks again for the substack!
Latest polling shows skyrocketing support for Hamas in the West Bank (75%!). Not only do Palestinians overwhelmingly support the Oct 7th massacres considered in the abstract, they support them as a matter of practical policy and think 15,000 dead and counting is a price well worth paying.
The number dead is completely immaterial to me, before ~1970 it wouldn't have mattered much to anyone. As far as I'm aware Israel would accept a surrender by Hamas. Up until Hamas surrenders, the deaths are on them.
Of course they support it. When a people are under attack against the enemy, they will be united against them v their own. “don’t even take sides against the family.”
After a certain point they have to realize they are beat and are never going to win. Whether that takes 20,000 dead or 2,000,000 is up to them. War suffers no fools.
Hope springs eternal.
Next year in Jerusalem.
That's stupid people talk. Netanyahu is much less popular than he was on October 6th despite 'being under attack' because Israelis have basic critical thinking capabilities, even many Mizrahim.
The Palestinians have gained almost no tangible benefits from the October 7th massacres. The only thing they have got is the release of 150 prisoners, but based on previous experience they could have got five times that much had they just kidnapped a single soldier (that's even leaving aside the question of whether Palestinians are better off with miscellaneous hoodlums and criminal psychopaths being released from prison). What they have lost is 1.8 million people displaced, 15,000 dead. In addition to this they have befouled their people by slaughtering Israeli peace activists and conscientious objectors who took Palestinians into their homes, arranged for their medical care, and dedicated their life to their welfare.
The most charitable way of interpreting the massive jump in support for Hamas after this morally and strategically disastrous act is that Palestinians want to roll the dice on getting the whole land and are willing to commit any act, and bear any price, to do so. The logical consequence of that is that they must be utterly crushed, over and over again until they give up.
But there is a less charitable explanation, which fits the data even better, namely that murdering Israelis *is the Palestinian cause*. It is not a means to an end; it is the end. The logical consequence is the same, but just more so.
"I wonder if there comes a point where the Ukrainian Army just completely breaks and Russia is able to roll up to Kiev."
The Russkies could have rolled up to Kiev at least a month ago. It's telling that they haven't, even though they destroyed the last vestiges of Ukraine's professional army this past summer during the latter's doomed counter offensive.
Only women and 40-year-olds now stand in their way. We're fortunate that Putin is not, in fact, the mad imperialist NYT et al portrays him as---because he currently commands the most powerful and battle-hardened military on the planet.
Eclipse is in the harbor. Wave hello. 😊❤️
HELLO and see you guys very soon.
Homer dancing to "War" naked in a church after the zombie apocalypse is quite something. https://youtu.be/xgC2OU2sdB8?si=RoRYyYJdPfvEucs4
Speaking of churches, as it's right at the frontier of Catholicism, Mostar deserves a prettier Cathedral.
Did they finish that big concrete thing?
It seems to me Russia has the initiative in Ukraine.
The United States has a presidential election coming up, which may be one of those most insane periods of our history to date.
With apologies to Napoleon, don't interrupt your enemy as they scream madly, drowning in their own shit.
🤣
Your thoughts on the following thread:
"Close review of Gaza casualty figures reported by UN OCHA based on daily Hamas “Ministry of Health” numbers proves they are FALSIFIED. Women & children are grossly inflated. This is easily proven but media ignores."
https://twitter.com/Aizenberg55/status/1731753062622982386
Specific details like that I will leave to others and wait for the dust to eventually settle. It's easy to get lost in those details, sorting out fact from fiction, and my preference has always been to focus on the bigger picture.
Those numbers are suspicious.
1) No breaking out of combatants 2) 70% or so are women and children.....and btw, we don't know the age range used to denote "children" 3) So, 30% are men including combatants. (Of course, we don't know how they identify.)
Regarding the GAZA war:
Israel gave up Gaza in 2005, forcibly removing 800 Israeli business owners and residents. It was very hard and painful for those families, but the move was approved by the Sharon Gov't. The businesses were ready to be taken over ~ greenhouses, car repair shops etc. Fatah was in control at this point.
Hamas was voted in in 2007; there have been no elections since.
The checkpoints in Israel were instituted when hundreds of rockets rained down on Southern Israel; the pipe bombs were constructed from water pipes left from the Israeli residents.
Since 2007, it's been nothing but provocation, rockets and terror attacks.
October 7 2023 changed EVERYTHING. Obviously, Israel cannot live with an Iranian backed terror group next door. Hamas itself has stated that they will invade again and again until all Jews are dead Jews. Civilians allowed to work in Israel provided maps of towns and settlements and many civilians participated in the slaughter and unspeakable acts of brutality.
Hamas is using it's population as human shields, they readily admit to this, as well as confirmation from Egypt and UNHR observers.
If you're going to field the "proportional response" line, stuff it. Israel could wipe out Gaza in 20 minutes, tops. But they are not. They are sending texts and raining down leaflets to warn civilians of bombing of targets.
Any double standards applied to Israel is rank Antisemitism.
And I for one am not going to take it for one more minute.
"Israel gave up Gaza in 2005, forcibly removing 800 Israeli business owners and residents."
...and more than 9,000 residents.
Noticed this myself
If one of the manifestations of antisemitism is an unhealthy obsession with Jews, the Gaza war is a 24/7 example. No conflict in recent history—not the massacre of 500,000 people in Syria, 400,000 in Yemen, or the vicious civil war still raging in Sudan today—achieved a fraction of the media’s fascination with Gaza.
https://substack.com/@ehudneor/note/c-44833418?r=8ahwm&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
I’d be inclined to agree. I think Israel and the Middle East take up too much American attention but then again I’d prefer if we disengaged from there and let both sides do whatever they want. All the focus on Gaza and Israel is because both sides want there to be attention on it.
The region absorbs attention because the global financial system revolves around the petrodollar. Without the petrodollar the American standard of living would be vastly lower.
What disturbs me about the current war is the way it is being consumed as entertainment. Even otherwise intelligent people are now wallowing in vicarious experience via mass, alternative and social media. The whole thing creeps me out.
American Christian Zionists are fixated on Israel, and some of them are in high positions. It is scary.
Perhaps, but can you actually name a single one amongst the senior executive ranks of the intelligence services, the defence chiefs and most senior commanders of the combat wing of the military, the diplomatic corps? The Biden Administration certainly has neo-cons and neo-liberals (who are pro-Israel) but no Christian Zionists that I have heard of.
The truly scary thing about Washington for me is its incompetence and corruption, not the beliefs of the Bible Belt.
https://newrepublic.com/article/176499/mike-johnson-israel-republican-rise-christian-zionism
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/30/us/politics/pompeo-christian-policy.html
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/pompeo-supports-a-hardline-version-of-zionism/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-he-takes-on-trump-pence-brings-starkly-different-approach-to-jewish-concerns/
Sorry, a good try, but Mike Johnson is not part of the Biden Administration, he is a congressman. Neither Mike Pompeo nor Mike Pence holds any position within the current executive branch of government.
Where do you information on conflicts? I find it so hard to get accurate unbiased information on Ukraine and Israel Gaza. So much propaganda and misleading information.
I will insert some sources re: war in Ukraine in the upcoming essay. Gaza is too fresh and far too close to Americans to be able to sort fact from fiction for now.