Open Thread #25 - Discussion on Wars in Ukraine and in Gaza
War! Canvassing your thoughts, short updates, etc.
Note:
I am presently working a very, very big essay on the War in Ukraine. I was hoping to have it up this evening, but I don’t think that I’ll be able to pull that off. I’m on the road tomorrow (going to Mostar, Hercegovina, just over the border), so I will do my best to publish it on Thursday. This essay is going to be VERY COMPREHENSIVE (and therefore very long too), and will approach the conflict from several different angles. Please bear with me in the meantime!
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For this edition, I’d like to canvass your thoughts on the two major conflicts going on at present, and what you think will be happening in each over the next month, half-year, and further out than that. Leave a comment in the comments section below:
I’ve already begun re-reading Daniel Okrent’s “Last Call - The Rise and Fall of Prohibition”, and have begun taking notes in preparation for the launch of our next FbF Book Club, as was announced recently here:
Upcoming FbF Book Club - Last Call: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition (2010)
One of my favourite (and quite possibly my favourite) era of American history is the interwar period between the First and Second World Wars. The United States was quickly rising in terms of global power due to the strength of its economy and the vast resources it was able to exploit. By the end of WW1, the British Empire was heavily indebted to the U…
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This upcoming essay on the War in Ukraine is going to try to be as comprehensive as possible, and will strain to be of a high standard of quality too.
Russia appears to be pretty firmly in the drivers seat with its war in Ukraine. There’s been a flurry of articles in the last month that paint a pretty bleak picture for Ukraine and its war effort. With US attention waning and the Europeans growing frustrated I wonder if there comes a point where the Ukrainian Army just completely breaks and Russia is able to roll up to Kiev.
When the war started I thought a quick Russian victory would be the best outcome for everyone, including Ukraine. The worst outcome would be a long war that Russia loses and threatens to go nuclear. Luckily the latter seems to be avoided but the amount of blood and treasure wasted is truly tragic.
This is my one caveat with your assertion of the US being the big winner in the war. Yes, the US cleaved Russia off from Europe, in that regard the US “won”, But the war has also shown the world the very real limits of US hegemonic power. The US can’t supply enough weapons for a real peer level conflict, can’t recruit enough soldiers despite huge incentives and propaganda, and can’t afford to fund wars without huge damage to its economy. I don’t think it will be long till others start testing the US military commitment to places like Taiwan(and many others!).
Israel seems to be making steady progress in Gaza. Talking to a few Israelis and no one seems interested in peace with Hamas right now. The protests and confrontations in the US and Europe in support of Hamas(or the Palys if you're being generous), seem to have convinced many Israelis that this is the last time they will have a militarily free hand to deal with the problem, and consequently they are going hard on Gaza. I have trouble feeling any sympathy for Gaza at this point, they seem to be fully in support of their own silly martyrdom. It’s not unlike watching a cop's bodycam where every reasonable request from the cop makes the person more and more angry until they finally chimp out and end up dead and fundraising for BLM. Tragic, but predictable.
Thanks again for the substack!