84 Comments
author

Maybe you enjoy this and maybe you leave a comment and maybe you like it by hitting the like button, and maybe you share it using the share button as well.

Also, it's Spring. Enjoy the sunshine.

Expand full comment
founding
Apr 21, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

I’m Toronto?

Expand full comment
author

I'm in Europe

Expand full comment
founding
Apr 21, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

Is that your homebase now?

Are used to get drunk in a Croatian bar on Dufferin just over the bridge crossing the Gardiner- after the soccer game TFC, a real meet/meat market. You were probably in there.

Expand full comment

This is a great article and highlights pretty much everything that's been going on. This is America going for broke. What I don't see mentioned is the financial side. $30 Trillion in debt with a ratio of 100%+ Debt/GDP that's only growing larger over time (since US treasuries are safe havens that are both a gift and a curse) interferes with stability in the financial markets. Add to that the specter of global famine and the inevitable waves of migrants that will lay siege on Europe, the ability to manage all these moving parts is going to be a very chaotic state of affairs. The illusions of American populists or the "New Right" (who have my sympathies but are going to be very disappointed) to have any influence is more bread and circuses but the move towards Asia and China's closing window for Taiwan is making instability the new normal. Keep up the good work

Expand full comment
author

Thanks man. I could have squeezed in more stuff on the "Asian NATO" and Taiwan, but I didn't want to get bogged down into too many details.

Expand full comment

No worries. Been following you for a while. A lot of my buddies on the dissident Right are wrapped up in some imagination thinking that the USG establishment is going to listen or allow any outside influence to interfere in its imperialist agenda (although its good for morale its as divorced from reality as is the progressive babysitters club)

Expand full comment

The debt is already at $31 Trillion thanks to inflation!

Expand full comment

Given the looming systemic risks in financial markets, I 've long argued that these bold geopolitical policy shifts reflect desperation rather than hubris (although hubris often shrouds lack of confidence). I've often called this a 'race to the bottom' in which the hegemon who falls last wins. I'm surprised that few people in RW circles discuss the financial and economic vectors of geopolitics, despite the fact that this is likely one of the most important strategic components.

Expand full comment

I think the US is going to destroy other economies because it holds the true power which is the reserve currency. So it would rather cripple the rest of the world (i.e. Europe, Asia - see Japan, Emerging Markets) than to simply accept there will be competition. America's power is effectively conjuring money out of thin air aka the Fed printer of the world's reserve currency and trading it in return to extract cheap products and resources from other nations. America is effectively drawing a line in the sand and the illusion of free markets is now being turned on its head. The game now is you are with us or against us and in fact the with us isn't really a choice because other countries are having to bend the knee to the US because their economies are getting destroyed in the current paradigm of inflation and a strong dollar. So the Fed knows what its doing and its coordinating with the rest of US big business + the state dept.

Someone in my life said this to me that still rings true as I watch what's happening: The American ruling class aka the liberal elite are not going to allow anyone else rule the world or challenge their power, they'll destroy it first.

With that mentality in mind, the idea that they would ever cede any type of concessions to anyone especially the Right doesn't even register in their mind. It also explains why they have no problem with blatant discrimination, persecution, or inconsistency/contradictions. The mental frame is simple. I win, you lose because reasons. I rule, you submit because I have power, have always had power, and you don't. It's always been this but it used to be more subtle. The generation of the ruling class today are not as competent as their forebearers which is why its become a lot more obvious but despite that, they still don't care because again, they've always had rule and they truly believe they are the "chosen" people. That's a level of self indulgence that is unmatched by even the most autistic person lol

Expand full comment

Your points about the reserve currency are accurate, but the only thing keeping it afloat is the US Navy's ability to project true geopolitical power. Despite everything, this power projection has its limitations. In the age of hypersonic missiles and other rapidly developing military technologies, the concept of aircraft carrier groups may be rendered obsolete. This would make extended power projection significantly more complicated. The United States may be decades ahead of its competitors, but the same could be said of many empires just before their demise. History teaches us that barbarians learn quickly.

What you describe will probably work in the short term, but I don't think that it's sustainable in an increasingly hostile global environment. Subject nations tend to despise their parasitic overlords and these servile vassals will always seek a way out. Once a weakness is found, the vassals will try to exploit it.

Dependency on fiat currency is the Achilles heel. The US can print as much money as it needs, but it's reaching levels of absurdity where fundamental economic indicators are virtually irrelevant. Having said that, the global elite may attempt to introduce alternative investment vehicles, such as Perpetual Bonds, to consolidate their power. God help us if they do.

If you ask me, I don't believe it's a matter of competency (although they often appear incompetent). This blatant display of power and haphazard acceleration strikes me as a manifestation of fear. The 2008 debacle exposed systemic risks in the intricately fragile global financial system and the COVID lockdowns revealed serious flaws in the supply chain. None of which has been properly addresses or corrected. When their bluff is called, and it eventually will, the entire house of cards will collapse faster than a toupee in a hurricane.

Expand full comment

This assumption relies on a misunderstood conception of what things look like when they fall. Your idea of the house of cards is already falling. But the rulers will remain, the country will just not resemble the one you have crystallized in your mind. The third worldization of the US and the West will just become the norm and the corruption will simply be the basic state of governance. It will get to a point where people don't have energy to resist because they will see its futility. The rest of the world is entirely dependent on America both militarily (dependent meaning they are depending on us not destroying them) and culturally. American cultural distribution is not slowing down or contracting, its in fact expanding. Like the concept of communism in the late 1800s and the early 1900s, the fashion of American progressivism, the religion of the ruling class, is being exported and enforced through economic/military coercion on all parts of the world. The nations that do resist are not in any position to fight back and the elites in the countries of the West are all on board throughout the anglo sphere and seeping slowly into Eastern Europe. Niccolo calls it Turbo America. Thinking the house of cards is going to collapse is wishful thinking. It won't be a collapse any moreso than it will simply be a regime change shift into a completely different way of authoritarian/total state governance where separation of church and state is no longer taboo (the church in this case being the progressive faith), partnerships between the corporate sector and the gov't will simply be accepted despite objections from the marginal voices of Red America, and more degradation and entropy is the immediate to medium future. Some people are just born in certain cycles. We just happen to be living in a declining cycle and thats just objectively true despite it going against my hope and wishes to the contrary. The turn around will not be seen in our lifetimes but that doesn't mean the seeds can't be planted to build a future that we will not be the ones to enjoy but for our children and their children. At least that would be the goal. When the Roman Republic fell it was not declared the end of the Roman Republic. Augustus did not come in and announce the end of the Republic. He came in and announced that he had arrived to save the Republic. And this was the transition to the Roman Empire. If one wants to objectively look at things, I think a few more years of degradation and it'll be about that time for the new emperor to arrive or some modern derivation of said figure. If one wants a historical background, throughout history civilizations typically fall under a 250 year-ish life cycle. There are exceptions but for the most part this is the general trend recorded for millenia. America is at 246. So according to the cycles of history, 2026 is when things will really kick off. To end, the hurricane you speak of will be felt by the powerless mass populace. The elites already have their escape hatches and isolated territories to divorce from any conflict. This is of course the main reason why they have zero connection to the policies and decisions they make on behalf of the masses. Moral hazard has infected all facets of American life and with it comes the entropic feature of degradation and dissolution.

Expand full comment

I've witnessed these events unfold far too many times to assume anything, but I refuse to remain this fatalistic. I don't expect to see any of these changes to occur in my lifetime, yet I still prepare myself for any potential outcome. Everything I do, every poem or article I write is to provide a hushed, yet determined account for future generations.

My father was born during the WWII bombings of Budapest, he witnessed the Soviet invasion and subsequent communist takeover of Hungary, he took part in the 1956 Hungarian uprising, and he emigrated to America, where he served in the US army and raised a family. He once told me that a lot can happen in a short amount of time. I fully agree with him.

I'm painfully aware of how elites frequently manage to transition from one system to another. I'm also aware of how long it has taken for these eras of decay to take place. However, the assumptions you mentioned are based on current trends that can change at the drop of a hat. We live in extremely accelerated and deeply interdependent times, and the contemporary decay metrics are far different than anything from the past.

I'm convinced that there will be nowhere to hide once the chaos inevitably begins. The stakes are simply too high, and the scale is too large. The elites are well aware of this, which is why I believe they are aggressively pushing their agenda before they lose control.

The assertion that Eastern Europe was somehow immune to degeneracy and subversion is false. In fact, the opposite was true. Central and Eastern Europe saw widespread degeneracy that differed from that seen in the West, but it was still degenerate.

While it's true that the former communist/socialist nomenklatura successfully transitioned to the new regime, their long term legitimacy was permanently weakened. Central and Eastern Europe of the '90s was a cesspool of corruption, pornography, crime, and decay. Every form of degeneracy, corruption, organized crime, pornography, and shady privatization nearly destroyed these countries before they could even breathe. The current reactionary attitudes in CEE is the result of exploitative capitalism disguised as free markets combined with Western arrogance. These reactions have nothing to do with Communism. It is a reflection of the soul of nations to fight back to the best of their ability. Some will be more successful than others.

I'm not a fan of predetermination. I prefer predestination.

I believe we share similar concerns, and our goals attempt to contextualize the present in order to create a better future, but we appear to take different approaches. Thank you for this interesting and engaging exchange.

Expand full comment

Yes I think we are effectively driven by the same motivation to seek revitalization and refuge from the degradation. I hope you're right but I am tacitly not counting on that. My parents are from Korea and despite its technological advancements, I've witnessed how much Americanization has completely destroyed any semblance of Korean culture. People can call it modernization but modernization is just another euphemism of American influence. Plastic surgery, monotonous fashion, American music, corruption of the youth, degenerate lifestyles, obesity is now on the rise (this was never a problem as Korea has for its entire history been a farming nation with a rice and vegetable diet), divorce rates increasing twofold, feminism now in power, all the progressive faith tenets are now being shouted out from the megaphone of the university students (much of this is being imported through university partnerships with American cross border university satellites). There was a recent gay rights demonstration in Korea with nothing but American/Western spokespeople and barely any Koreans showing up to the demonstration. The American empire is importing its religion into its satellite colonies at full speed and the effects are being witnessed in full view.

Expand full comment
author

Excellent comment

Expand full comment
Apr 21, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

I agree on the USains and the decision to go “turbo America” and take on China and Russia simultaneously. To me the question is whether this goal is a fantasy given the role China has played in the low interest rate, low inflation World which Americans have grown accustomed to over the last 25 years. Our elites do not understand the financial plumbing (it’s so complicated Ie that few do) and this could be our Achilles heel.

Expand full comment
author

I am hoping that someone somewhere with the knowledge to do so can write a piece explaining what potential sanctions can be applied against China if so desired, and how they would not harm US economic interests. I tried finding stuff on this, but failed.

Expand full comment
Oct 9, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

how about Michael Hudson?

Expand full comment
author

Hi Ian!

I find his stuff on Europe very, very interesting. I haven't taken a look at his writing on China, tbh.

Expand full comment
Apr 21, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

To be clear to see if I understood your logic: in the next-to-last paragraph you say that the US' behavior indicates hubris. Is this your opinion? If so it may run counter to the last sentence in the paragraph: hubris isn't justified self-confidence. Hubris invites nemesis.

Expand full comment
author

Why not both? (I am still of two minds, I guess). What do you think?

Expand full comment
Apr 21, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

I'm calling hubris and delusion. I don't believe there is a strategy beyond expecting others to obey.

The Duran has commented a lot about this. They think the foreign policy establishment is riding on the coattails of American hegemony and a vision of Russia as it was post Soviet collapse.

They propose the neocon types simply don't think strategically about the logistics, economic structure, the "plumbing," as Andrew said in the comment above. They think in terms of escalation and causing damage where and when they can, nothing outside of this, and they don't have a reverse gear. The issue this time is that the plumbing is vital in an unprecedented way.

Further, they believe the current neocons are like heirs to a family enterprise that are just not as capable as their forebears. Same ideology and hubris, less talent at pulling it off, less hardened experience, less contact with reality.

Given their lack of judgement on Russia, I doubt the US knows what to do if China hits back. I see your point about selling LNG, but I think the west still believes they are still going to reck Russia's economy. I don't see a strategy now besides more of the same. Why would they have an ingenious one for China?

Expand full comment
Apr 21, 2022·edited Apr 21, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

Not exactly helpful, but I'm not sure. To be clear I think hubris is the obvious answer, but the US is also incredibly powerful and rich, so the degree of hubris is what I'm not sure about. For instance: it was hubris to invade Afghanistan, "the graveyard of empires", but it's unclear how much they actually suffered for it. That said the US has structural problems that can absolutely hurt them deeply, and getting out of them depends on a pragmatism and flexibility I'm not sure they still possess.

The US of the past was able to project soft and hard power, remaining on the forefront of technology while also making its citizens' standard of living increase. This seems much harder now; I'm sure we can pinpoint a dozen reasons for why, but more importantly, can reverse it? Can the US make Boeing the greatest engineering company in the world again? Or produce an alternative Boeing?

I do think that counting the US out is foolish; I saw pieces counting Russia as "out" in the late 90s and that turned out to be dumb, too, and the US is much more powerful. That said, are there any Putin-like politicians lining up to take the reins in the US? Could an effective leader even overcome the deep state? Can the deep state itself right its course or would it take the Yeltsin 90s to get there? (And even Putin could only make Russia into a regional power.)

Also, how much of the current political project is actually to increase US power, and how much is to enrich elites in the arms/NGO space? Afghanistan suggests that these goals are not one and the same. For instance: a lot of the "anti-GAE" sentiment I see around twitter seems to focus on the unique threat of the "globohomo agenda". This agenda certainly gives DEI NGOs plenty of room to make money, but a lot of it's also deeply unpopular. Being callous, it looks to me like an easy sacrificial lamb, something "GAE" could give up to allow say, Poland to save face but continue within the liberal sphere. But could they even do that? Does the US/global liberalism have that sort of room to maneuver?

So, to answer the question again, I think it could definitely be merited confidence, as long as the US can right the course and pull itself up. I am skeptical that they have that capacity.

Expand full comment
Apr 22, 2022·edited Apr 22, 2022

Yes, and it wasn't just hubris in Afghanistan, it was a failure. Going turbo on Russia and China hinges on being successful in definite terms. That's what fuels my doubts. There's a difference between getting away with failure but not paying the price, and winning. The sanctions are successful in making smaller countries suffer, but they're not even successful at achieving their purported aims. If those theories fail to work on many of the little guys, well....

Don't forget Kazakhstan as an indicator regarding power projection, where the west was successful in Ukraine in 2014, but the same recipe did not work this time around. Russia has learned its lessons, and they and China have explicit strategies for all of this.

Regarding a Putin-like figure taking the reins, let's pretend the chances are 100% it will happen. The US needs years and years to catch up with itself, whereas China and Russia need much less time and are already moving forward with their plans to integrate. They've been ready since before January. The US at this point simply can't win in a race to economic and resource independence if they start in 1 minute, and they won't start by 2024, even if there's a decent America First-type policy agenda.

They're talking sanctions right now, and they are moving alarmingly fast with all of this.

Then the absolute terror that China could inflict on the west by just not sending them what they need...Like medicine...Who can destabilize who more effectively, and who can win the race?

It could be possible for the US to push other countries around and get them to side with them. India is going to be a big factor in this, but they're looking the other way currently and patching relations with China....Given the apparent lack of confidence in the US many other countries are showing, you can't put the risk de-dollarization off the table.

With Ukraine, Taiwan going on, how many can the US really "keep in line" at once, and for how long? It's going to be a stretch and very costly to do so, and they didn't set that up before going straight at China.

Expand full comment

Its critical to understand there is no “US Government “ - there are conflicting or cooperating factions and bureaucracies and oligarchical interests. Its not even “the Blob” its several blobs.

Geography, a passive people who were living in a Frank Capra movie and nuclear weapons let us get away with this madness since at least Harry Truman.

What we’re seeing is the Truman show with the lights on and the movie ending.

Expand full comment
Apr 21, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

You mention a totally unified US elite - do you see the current splintering of Elon, Peter Thiel and even PMarca as a serious challenge to their globalist vision (vs the AM1 vision)? Or is it just a distraction. I constantly have to ground myself with Elon’s tweet: “The most entertaining outcome is the most likely”

Expand full comment
author

The Long Warred made an interesting comment the most recent Saturday Commentary and Review thread where he suggested that there has to be some very powerful people behind Musk's move for Twitter. This would indicate that maybe the elites aren't as wholly united as I say in the piece.

Expand full comment
Apr 21, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

Titillated at the thought of looking at their comment

Expand full comment

while this would be nice if true, its also possible this is just a solo venture as Elon also tends to shoot from the hip, such as "funding secured, $420.69" or telling the SEC to suck his cock.

Expand full comment

I don’t think Musk would risk space and his goal of Mars colonies for all the literal earth 🌍 itself.

Expand full comment
founding
Apr 21, 2022·edited Apr 22, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

Who does it better than Mr Soldo? My fellow readers, does anyone dispute this piece (beyond a quibble) and has anyone read such a cogent and simple explication of America’s hegemonic behaviour?

Expand full comment
founding
Apr 21, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

https://thescrum.substack.com/p/primacy-or-world-order

This piece about Professor Hoffman back in the 70s supports Mr. Soldo’s hypothesis. Turbo America is what Patrick Lawrence, or really Professor Hoffman, calls “all America with very little Pax”

Expand full comment
founding

Just reread it, perfect compendium to Soldo’s piece. The Pax American quote is from somewhere else.

Expand full comment

F*cking outstanding, as always. Perhaps the best thing I've read on your site yet. Your framework really explains so much of what's going on here with crystalline precision.

Expand full comment
author

Very nice of you to say, thank you!

Expand full comment

Agree on Hubris.

Agree at present on flyover country being irrelevant (by their own passive cowardice).

Agree Elites appear united, mind you some of that fear based conformity not belief.

I agree on the NYPD, but I think you are scratching the surface of the Defenders (police, military) discontent.

The police and the military including National Guard and Veterans are all the same people (The above list is often one person and there are many people who are veterans, National Guardsmen and police). The warrior caste then are the same people from the same families generationally- very much like the NYPD- and the demoralization and discontent, disgust is rampant and not a secret.

“Our Generals are part of the elites and not us” a group of Pol-Mil students told a surprised teacher. This is of course the common view of the elites, the difference being the citizens are powerless, soldiers and police are not.

You reasonably see nothing happening so don’t believe , reasonable.

But the elites are on a very precarious perch.

Expand full comment

Short version; the elites are on top by force, fraud and intimidation. They can’t trust force, this is not a strong state.

“ Our Generals are part of the elites and not us”.

Ahem.

Expand full comment
founding

I agree to an extent that passivity on the part of flyovers has contributed to the current, awful situation. I do wonder what can even be done now. I'm only just now getting where in my life I can expect the have the resources to affect even local politics and it still feels like I'd be burning money.

Not that I'd ever run myself. Until recently there was a YouTube video of myself yelling at some Chinese guy on the internet with some choice language that would be damning to any politician, even if it was 15 years ago.

But by your reckoning, what is to be done? Wait on those disaffected elements in LEO and military to act? Seems a long shot.

Expand full comment

I have to be real on this; all the military and police can do is NOT do or allow to be done what the elites so desperately desire (kill off the rest of you, despite being of the commons themselves).

Force in Being; a Force in Being by its existence requires an opponent (like our civilian leadership in this case) to reckon the force in being into calculations.

We are that force in being- that we exist with quiet limits (no…) checks both direct violence and the creation of alternative force that would do what elites want to do (cull Americans to manageable numbers).

Direct orders to say shoot MAGA or people not only not going to happen with current police military, but they can’t *AT PRESENT * create an SS or CHEKA to do it. Saying it aloud instead of nudging us might spell their doom.

Nudging us won’t work - we have decades of experience in what faithless liars they are, even hard core Democrats or Progressives in uniform (rare) know they can’t trust any of the elites.

Here is where ROE, Abu Gharib, Police Brutality Drama, BLM work against the elites, none trust them. The JAG lawyers in DC going over ROE never made it clearer that if we shot we’d be sold out.

The Generals have lost us, and our younglings too BTW - see again ROE and Abu Gharib.

You can’t show coward or faithless twice. Once and you are forever ignored, or menaced the F away with a look.

Definition of FORCE IN BEING; Like German High Seas Fleet tied down British fleet in WW1, freeing German commerce raiding by surface and U-Boats.

Or an army sitting on a line of communication, or border. Warsaw Pact existed because of NATO. Now Russian Western Command Army exists because of NATO adventures in Libya, Balkans. Passive moves and countermoves.

Expand full comment

I add; this doesn’t mean the elites fall of their own “internal contradictions “ that’s fantasy.!

No, someone has to push. Now they’re almost completely alone so push with force won’t take much, but it doesn’t happen automatically lol. Neither did USSR.

Trump could have done this, or Pence in January 2021. He could have walked up to any body of soldiers or police or both and said “follow me” and it would have all been over.

But Trump like his voters is a Bluffer.

Bluff called, lose.

Next?

Expand full comment
founding

Jumped a little when you mentioned my hometown, Greenville SC in the article. If anyone wants to stop by and do unspeakable things to Lindsay Graham's office, be my guest. It's in the government building across from Soby's restaurant(try the shrimp and grits).

Turbo America sure made my Easter unbearable. My hyper liberal aunt and my Trump loyalist uncles finally finding common ground on support for apocalyptic Ukraine intervention made me want to put my head through the Chik Fil A catering plate.

I didn't though, because it's a good Christian chicken joint.

Expand full comment

Yecch. I'm hardcore dissident Right-child of Ron Paul and feeling you. Trump has gotten better with his recent peace statement, but I still miss 2016 Trump.

Expand full comment
Apr 22, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo

China will be the limit on US hegemony. The reason is simple, the Chinese keep the US consumer, as an individual or a business, going. The consumer economy is 70%+ of our GNP. We may have an impressive weapons production line, but for everything else, the world looks to China. (Nice graphic you provided!) Not to mention China has 3+ times the population of the US and most of those people are not living anywhere near the standard American lifestyle...in other words, there's a huge home market. This means any proposals to economically sanction China by the US would be so counterproductive as to be what the British call an own goal.

The economic equivalent of unusable nuclear weapons has been achieved. The eager jump on Russia is the last chance for self-righteousness to flood the nation while benefiting the weapons industry and even in this case we are seeing effects here that hurt, but not the 1% that you rightly state is all that counts in the empire business.

We’ve reached the end of a long period of expansion of US hegemony, the opening bell sounded at Bretton Woods, where our economic status was established over a prostrated world, and that has insured expansion in spite of military blunders bringing pointless loss of life overwhelmingly foreign but also American. The UN was a useful US front for a while, but that's long been cast aside with brazen US flouting of international law. We fashioned the golden key for ourselves in 1944 and have finally encountered the one lock it cannot open.

Of course underlying all of the above is the inability of capitalism to accept any limits and this problem faces the combined economic engines of the US and China. Together, the two are racing toward the (I believe unstoppable) global warming disaster that approaches but is set aside in Turbo America.

Expand full comment
author

Great post! Thank you.

Expand full comment

Thanks. Your thought provoking essays invite contemplation of the subjects you write about so insightfully. I've very glad to participate in the conversation.

Expand full comment

The objective being the unquestionable Dominion of America - none of that is unusable. Including nukes.

Sorry. Yes there are limits to what can be done to China and Russia and what DC can directly do to Americans.

There’s however an absolute dire necessity to gain unquestionable control of America; for the elites this is Do Or Die.

Which means do it indirectly if you cannot do directly . The Indirect approach is an ancient and successful practice and school of Strategy that became a formal school and philosophy of Strategy in the West after WW1. Thats why WW2 abandoned the frontal assault and embraced maneuvering in WW2.

The father of the school is BH Liddell Hart. So called “Blitzkrieg “ (a western media label) was just maneuver, the Germans just called it maneuver.

So in 2022 the Russians maneuver towards Kiev, taking it hostage- but not going into Kiev. This prevents the Ukrainians from reinforcing the South and East Armies- their best forces - which had been positioned against Donbass and Crimea. Now that Ukrainian Army is trapped east of Dnipier river and about to be encircled and annihilated.

For us; the price of everything especially energy ( which drives and controls all other prices) and food explode. Hungry Westerners who were populist yesterday are voting Macron today, it will also happen with GOP in midterms. Voters won’t take any chances on “Right Wing” politicians. They have learned the Democrats have no limits and the GOP and other conservatives are all talk, so you can add Saint Floyd, BLM and Antifa 🔥to Indirect Approach.

Expand full comment

Cool article man - yeah I agree with you and Curt Yarvs - the american elite are very very united - those black pilled souls out there who think america is about to fall apart - I hear this occasionally from the Claremont-ists - who think the America is about to fall apart because crime is rising, or whatever - are insane - does anyone think Brazil or Nigeria are about to fall apart? Are we even close to being as dysfunctional as those two states? And there is still a fair bit of good stuff going on in the US - I see the US main achilles heel being some economic fuck-up or many economic fuck ups that kills US dollar hegemony and squashes US empire in the longrun.

Expand full comment

Fucking brilliant

Expand full comment

This is insightful stuff and I want more on Niccolo's thoughts about an 'Asian NATO', as well as his thinking about the Anglosphere and the new AUKUS arrangements.

The current wave of development across northern Australia is clearly part of a wider strategy to turn the country into a continent-sized Okinawa or Guam that can function as a base for the projection of force across the Indo-Pacific. The recent Australian decision to purchase submarines from the US is all about developing the capacity of the US to blockade China's access to the Indian Ocean. As with the European client-states, the Australian spending spree on defence is intended to provide economies of scale for the US military-industrial complex.

As for China, its Achilles heel is its overexposure to the US financial system. The seizure of Russian foreign currency reserves was more than just piracy. It was a demonstration of raw financial power and an explicit threat to the CCP.

The complete lack of outrage across the G20 at the casual disregard for property rights, due process, sovereignty involved in the sanctions indicates that the US would face little or no opposition should they ever decide to do the same towards China.

China is the second largest investor in US treasury bills after Japan (the overwhelming bulk of US overseas debt is owned by US allies, client-states and sundry vassals). The US elite has a genius for instrumentalising the dysfunction of its own society. There is no reason not to expect the US to wield this debt as a weapon...the notion that the US would ever repay any of it is absurd.

Expand full comment

"The US elite has a genius for instrumentalising the dysfunction of its own society."

BRILLIANT.

I must steal this, sorry.

Expand full comment

Really interesting piece. I wonder what you think of the possibility of intentional self sabotage though? The decision makers in the US see themselves as "world citizens", not Americans, would be willing to sacrifice the US for the greater good. Even if I'm wrong there and they pull off Russia and China, aren't they putting the US at extreme risk going forward by making so many enemies? Even weak enemies can be unpredictably dangerous.

Expand full comment

The U.S. agencies (especially our intelligence agencies) just don't seem omnipotent and competent enough to accomplish the things you credit it with. Or the various coups, regime changes, elections, etc., that so many credit them with.

Instead, the independent, free-thinking peoples of the world voluntarily accept Americanization and reject the old ways because that seems like a good idea (in their individual and then collective judgement). The German barbarians wanted to be Roman, the Romans didn't force it.

Or some mix of both.

Expand full comment