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This is a great article and highlights pretty much everything that's been going on. This is America going for broke. What I don't see mentioned is the financial side. $30 Trillion in debt with a ratio of 100%+ Debt/GDP that's only growing larger over time (since US treasuries are safe havens that are both a gift and a curse) interferes with stability in the financial markets. Add to that the specter of global famine and the inevitable waves of migrants that will lay siege on Europe, the ability to manage all these moving parts is going to be a very chaotic state of affairs. The illusions of American populists or the "New Right" (who have my sympathies but are going to be very disappointed) to have any influence is more bread and circuses but the move towards Asia and China's closing window for Taiwan is making instability the new normal. Keep up the good work
I agree on the USains and the decision to go “turbo America” and take on China and Russia simultaneously. To me the question is whether this goal is a fantasy given the role China has played in the low interest rate, low inflation World which Americans have grown accustomed to over the last 25 years. Our elites do not understand the financial plumbing (it’s so complicated Ie that few do) and this could be our Achilles heel.
To be clear to see if I understood your logic: in the next-to-last paragraph you say that the US' behavior indicates hubris. Is this your opinion? If so it may run counter to the last sentence in the paragraph: hubris isn't justified self-confidence. Hubris invites nemesis.
You mention a totally unified US elite - do you see the current splintering of Elon, Peter Thiel and even PMarca as a serious challenge to their globalist vision (vs the AM1 vision)? Or is it just a distraction. I constantly have to ground myself with Elon’s tweet: “The most entertaining outcome is the most likely”
Apr 21, 2022·edited Apr 22, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
Who does it better than Mr Soldo? My fellow readers, does anyone dispute this piece (beyond a quibble) and has anyone read such a cogent and simple explication of America’s hegemonic behaviour?
This piece about Professor Hoffman back in the 70s supports Mr. Soldo’s hypothesis. Turbo America is what Patrick Lawrence, or really Professor Hoffman, calls “all America with very little Pax”
F*cking outstanding, as always. Perhaps the best thing I've read on your site yet. Your framework really explains so much of what's going on here with crystalline precision.
Agree at present on flyover country being irrelevant (by their own passive cowardice).
Agree Elites appear united, mind you some of that fear based conformity not belief.
I agree on the NYPD, but I think you are scratching the surface of the Defenders (police, military) discontent.
The police and the military including National Guard and Veterans are all the same people (The above list is often one person and there are many people who are veterans, National Guardsmen and police). The warrior caste then are the same people from the same families generationally- very much like the NYPD- and the demoralization and discontent, disgust is rampant and not a secret.
“Our Generals are part of the elites and not us” a group of Pol-Mil students told a surprised teacher. This is of course the common view of the elites, the difference being the citizens are powerless, soldiers and police are not.
You reasonably see nothing happening so don’t believe , reasonable.
Jumped a little when you mentioned my hometown, Greenville SC in the article. If anyone wants to stop by and do unspeakable things to Lindsay Graham's office, be my guest. It's in the government building across from Soby's restaurant(try the shrimp and grits).
Turbo America sure made my Easter unbearable. My hyper liberal aunt and my Trump loyalist uncles finally finding common ground on support for apocalyptic Ukraine intervention made me want to put my head through the Chik Fil A catering plate.
I didn't though, because it's a good Christian chicken joint.
China will be the limit on US hegemony. The reason is simple, the Chinese keep the US consumer, as an individual or a business, going. The consumer economy is 70%+ of our GNP. We may have an impressive weapons production line, but for everything else, the world looks to China. (Nice graphic you provided!) Not to mention China has 3+ times the population of the US and most of those people are not living anywhere near the standard American lifestyle...in other words, there's a huge home market. This means any proposals to economically sanction China by the US would be so counterproductive as to be what the British call an own goal.
The economic equivalent of unusable nuclear weapons has been achieved. The eager jump on Russia is the last chance for self-righteousness to flood the nation while benefiting the weapons industry and even in this case we are seeing effects here that hurt, but not the 1% that you rightly state is all that counts in the empire business.
We’ve reached the end of a long period of expansion of US hegemony, the opening bell sounded at Bretton Woods, where our economic status was established over a prostrated world, and that has insured expansion in spite of military blunders bringing pointless loss of life overwhelmingly foreign but also American. The UN was a useful US front for a while, but that's long been cast aside with brazen US flouting of international law. We fashioned the golden key for ourselves in 1944 and have finally encountered the one lock it cannot open.
Of course underlying all of the above is the inability of capitalism to accept any limits and this problem faces the combined economic engines of the US and China. Together, the two are racing toward the (I believe unstoppable) global warming disaster that approaches but is set aside in Turbo America.
Cool article man - yeah I agree with you and Curt Yarvs - the american elite are very very united - those black pilled souls out there who think america is about to fall apart - I hear this occasionally from the Claremont-ists - who think the America is about to fall apart because crime is rising, or whatever - are insane - does anyone think Brazil or Nigeria are about to fall apart? Are we even close to being as dysfunctional as those two states? And there is still a fair bit of good stuff going on in the US - I see the US main achilles heel being some economic fuck-up or many economic fuck ups that kills US dollar hegemony and squashes US empire in the longrun.
This is insightful stuff and I want more on Niccolo's thoughts about an 'Asian NATO', as well as his thinking about the Anglosphere and the new AUKUS arrangements.
The current wave of development across northern Australia is clearly part of a wider strategy to turn the country into a continent-sized Okinawa or Guam that can function as a base for the projection of force across the Indo-Pacific. The recent Australian decision to purchase submarines from the US is all about developing the capacity of the US to blockade China's access to the Indian Ocean. As with the European client-states, the Australian spending spree on defence is intended to provide economies of scale for the US military-industrial complex.
As for China, its Achilles heel is its overexposure to the US financial system. The seizure of Russian foreign currency reserves was more than just piracy. It was a demonstration of raw financial power and an explicit threat to the CCP.
The complete lack of outrage across the G20 at the casual disregard for property rights, due process, sovereignty involved in the sanctions indicates that the US would face little or no opposition should they ever decide to do the same towards China.
China is the second largest investor in US treasury bills after Japan (the overwhelming bulk of US overseas debt is owned by US allies, client-states and sundry vassals). The US elite has a genius for instrumentalising the dysfunction of its own society. There is no reason not to expect the US to wield this debt as a weapon...the notion that the US would ever repay any of it is absurd.
Really interesting piece. I wonder what you think of the possibility of intentional self sabotage though? The decision makers in the US see themselves as "world citizens", not Americans, would be willing to sacrifice the US for the greater good. Even if I'm wrong there and they pull off Russia and China, aren't they putting the US at extreme risk going forward by making so many enemies? Even weak enemies can be unpredictably dangerous.
The U.S. agencies (especially our intelligence agencies) just don't seem omnipotent and competent enough to accomplish the things you credit it with. Or the various coups, regime changes, elections, etc., that so many credit them with.
Instead, the independent, free-thinking peoples of the world voluntarily accept Americanization and reject the old ways because that seems like a good idea (in their individual and then collective judgement). The German barbarians wanted to be Roman, the Romans didn't force it.
Maybe you enjoy this and maybe you leave a comment and maybe you like it by hitting the like button, and maybe you share it using the share button as well.
Also, it's Spring. Enjoy the sunshine.
This is a great article and highlights pretty much everything that's been going on. This is America going for broke. What I don't see mentioned is the financial side. $30 Trillion in debt with a ratio of 100%+ Debt/GDP that's only growing larger over time (since US treasuries are safe havens that are both a gift and a curse) interferes with stability in the financial markets. Add to that the specter of global famine and the inevitable waves of migrants that will lay siege on Europe, the ability to manage all these moving parts is going to be a very chaotic state of affairs. The illusions of American populists or the "New Right" (who have my sympathies but are going to be very disappointed) to have any influence is more bread and circuses but the move towards Asia and China's closing window for Taiwan is making instability the new normal. Keep up the good work
I agree on the USains and the decision to go “turbo America” and take on China and Russia simultaneously. To me the question is whether this goal is a fantasy given the role China has played in the low interest rate, low inflation World which Americans have grown accustomed to over the last 25 years. Our elites do not understand the financial plumbing (it’s so complicated Ie that few do) and this could be our Achilles heel.
To be clear to see if I understood your logic: in the next-to-last paragraph you say that the US' behavior indicates hubris. Is this your opinion? If so it may run counter to the last sentence in the paragraph: hubris isn't justified self-confidence. Hubris invites nemesis.
You mention a totally unified US elite - do you see the current splintering of Elon, Peter Thiel and even PMarca as a serious challenge to their globalist vision (vs the AM1 vision)? Or is it just a distraction. I constantly have to ground myself with Elon’s tweet: “The most entertaining outcome is the most likely”
Who does it better than Mr Soldo? My fellow readers, does anyone dispute this piece (beyond a quibble) and has anyone read such a cogent and simple explication of America’s hegemonic behaviour?
https://thescrum.substack.com/p/primacy-or-world-order
This piece about Professor Hoffman back in the 70s supports Mr. Soldo’s hypothesis. Turbo America is what Patrick Lawrence, or really Professor Hoffman, calls “all America with very little Pax”
F*cking outstanding, as always. Perhaps the best thing I've read on your site yet. Your framework really explains so much of what's going on here with crystalline precision.
Agree on Hubris.
Agree at present on flyover country being irrelevant (by their own passive cowardice).
Agree Elites appear united, mind you some of that fear based conformity not belief.
I agree on the NYPD, but I think you are scratching the surface of the Defenders (police, military) discontent.
The police and the military including National Guard and Veterans are all the same people (The above list is often one person and there are many people who are veterans, National Guardsmen and police). The warrior caste then are the same people from the same families generationally- very much like the NYPD- and the demoralization and discontent, disgust is rampant and not a secret.
“Our Generals are part of the elites and not us” a group of Pol-Mil students told a surprised teacher. This is of course the common view of the elites, the difference being the citizens are powerless, soldiers and police are not.
You reasonably see nothing happening so don’t believe , reasonable.
But the elites are on a very precarious perch.
Jumped a little when you mentioned my hometown, Greenville SC in the article. If anyone wants to stop by and do unspeakable things to Lindsay Graham's office, be my guest. It's in the government building across from Soby's restaurant(try the shrimp and grits).
Turbo America sure made my Easter unbearable. My hyper liberal aunt and my Trump loyalist uncles finally finding common ground on support for apocalyptic Ukraine intervention made me want to put my head through the Chik Fil A catering plate.
I didn't though, because it's a good Christian chicken joint.
China will be the limit on US hegemony. The reason is simple, the Chinese keep the US consumer, as an individual or a business, going. The consumer economy is 70%+ of our GNP. We may have an impressive weapons production line, but for everything else, the world looks to China. (Nice graphic you provided!) Not to mention China has 3+ times the population of the US and most of those people are not living anywhere near the standard American lifestyle...in other words, there's a huge home market. This means any proposals to economically sanction China by the US would be so counterproductive as to be what the British call an own goal.
The economic equivalent of unusable nuclear weapons has been achieved. The eager jump on Russia is the last chance for self-righteousness to flood the nation while benefiting the weapons industry and even in this case we are seeing effects here that hurt, but not the 1% that you rightly state is all that counts in the empire business.
We’ve reached the end of a long period of expansion of US hegemony, the opening bell sounded at Bretton Woods, where our economic status was established over a prostrated world, and that has insured expansion in spite of military blunders bringing pointless loss of life overwhelmingly foreign but also American. The UN was a useful US front for a while, but that's long been cast aside with brazen US flouting of international law. We fashioned the golden key for ourselves in 1944 and have finally encountered the one lock it cannot open.
Of course underlying all of the above is the inability of capitalism to accept any limits and this problem faces the combined economic engines of the US and China. Together, the two are racing toward the (I believe unstoppable) global warming disaster that approaches but is set aside in Turbo America.
Cool article man - yeah I agree with you and Curt Yarvs - the american elite are very very united - those black pilled souls out there who think america is about to fall apart - I hear this occasionally from the Claremont-ists - who think the America is about to fall apart because crime is rising, or whatever - are insane - does anyone think Brazil or Nigeria are about to fall apart? Are we even close to being as dysfunctional as those two states? And there is still a fair bit of good stuff going on in the US - I see the US main achilles heel being some economic fuck-up or many economic fuck ups that kills US dollar hegemony and squashes US empire in the longrun.
Fucking brilliant
This is insightful stuff and I want more on Niccolo's thoughts about an 'Asian NATO', as well as his thinking about the Anglosphere and the new AUKUS arrangements.
The current wave of development across northern Australia is clearly part of a wider strategy to turn the country into a continent-sized Okinawa or Guam that can function as a base for the projection of force across the Indo-Pacific. The recent Australian decision to purchase submarines from the US is all about developing the capacity of the US to blockade China's access to the Indian Ocean. As with the European client-states, the Australian spending spree on defence is intended to provide economies of scale for the US military-industrial complex.
As for China, its Achilles heel is its overexposure to the US financial system. The seizure of Russian foreign currency reserves was more than just piracy. It was a demonstration of raw financial power and an explicit threat to the CCP.
The complete lack of outrage across the G20 at the casual disregard for property rights, due process, sovereignty involved in the sanctions indicates that the US would face little or no opposition should they ever decide to do the same towards China.
China is the second largest investor in US treasury bills after Japan (the overwhelming bulk of US overseas debt is owned by US allies, client-states and sundry vassals). The US elite has a genius for instrumentalising the dysfunction of its own society. There is no reason not to expect the US to wield this debt as a weapon...the notion that the US would ever repay any of it is absurd.
Really interesting piece. I wonder what you think of the possibility of intentional self sabotage though? The decision makers in the US see themselves as "world citizens", not Americans, would be willing to sacrifice the US for the greater good. Even if I'm wrong there and they pull off Russia and China, aren't they putting the US at extreme risk going forward by making so many enemies? Even weak enemies can be unpredictably dangerous.
The U.S. agencies (especially our intelligence agencies) just don't seem omnipotent and competent enough to accomplish the things you credit it with. Or the various coups, regime changes, elections, etc., that so many credit them with.
Instead, the independent, free-thinking peoples of the world voluntarily accept Americanization and reject the old ways because that seems like a good idea (in their individual and then collective judgement). The German barbarians wanted to be Roman, the Romans didn't force it.
Or some mix of both.