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great stuff. the BRICS concept is a triumph of marketing that somehow became reality. (One the USA’s greatest strengths and weaknesses!) Thanks for pointing out the absurdity of it all
Jul 31, 2023·edited Jul 31, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo
I haven't been able to find it again, but not that long ago on YouTube I stumbled across a lecture by a historian talking about Yugoslavia. He said people were always saying Yugoslavia was going to collapse, or all hell was going to break out in Yugoslavia. They said this for years, and it kept never happening, and people started saying (in effect), "You've been saying all hell was going to break out for years, give it up." Yes, it's VERY hard to figure out what's going on anywhere. We all know what happened in Japan in WW2. Many people truly believed Japan was going to win the war. They weren't even capable of internalizing the devastation around them, literally everywhere. This is remarkable. So you may be right about the USA; but also you may be wrong. We should be prepared for either. (whatever "prepared" means)
> Among those who dissent from US foreign policy actions, it has become an article of faith among many of them that the USA is losing the war in Ukraine. The fact of the matter is that the US proxy flag, Ukraine’s, continues to fly east of Kharkov. The fact of the matter is that targets within Russia are still being hit by Ukrainian forces, assisted by some NATO states. Many of these types assured us that the UAF ran out of fuel last year, and could never again conduct an offensive like the (failing) one being conducted now. Many of these types assured us that the UAF was at the breaking point in October of last year. Many of these types are adamant that an overwhelming Russian victory is approaching, one that will drive a stake through the heart of NATO
Basically since the war started, my opinion on it has been the same. I believe it's still valid. Something approximately:
"Literally all sources of information are suspect, as every side is very consciously and deliberately running propaganda on their own people as well as others. The only thing we can say for certainty is that neither Ukraine nor Russia are decisively winning this action, and the longer it drags on, the more certain we can be that neither of them will win _decisively_.
Literally any other position, regardless of whether it is actually true or not, cannot be justified by the available information, because none of the available information is trustworthy
"Among those who dissent from US foreign policy actions, it has become an article of faith among many of them that the USA is losing the war in Ukraine...." This is so interesting to read because among my peer group I'm the only one that thinks Ukraine is not doing well. It's easy to point to the constant reports of Russia being out of ammunition, relying on shovels, sanctions destroying what tiny economy they have, etc. Given the constant info insisting that Russia is on the brink I don't often consider it from the other side and that there is a version of this wishful thinking on that side as well.
Until proven otherwise I think John Mearsheimer still probably has his finger on the pulse better than anyone. He predicts Russian will have an ugly victory. Meaning they will win overall, but not in a way that will have wanted to and not in a way that they will ultimately be satisfied with (for many such reasons).
It would make sense not to rock the boat at this point - for example it would be ridiculous for Putin to force SA's hand in making a 'declaration' regarding arrest/no arrest- so they agree to avoid the issue.
As, you note, all these countries are experiencing significant problems. It would make sense to approach this issue crab wise and in a deniable manner for the present, with an eye to the medium or longer term.
Living under the threat of financial sanctions is not something you'd just accept, if and when you accumulate the power not to.
It might be slow to happen, it might be blocked but the will to attempt is there. There's just too many advantages.
You pose an interesting challenge to my own ideas on this theme, and it's no doubt good for me to ask that question a lot: am I engaged in wishful thinking? I think I have a pretty good read on how badly America is doing on all the fundamentals -- today's America has a fraction of the strength and resilience boasted by Operation Desert Storm era America -- but I wonder if I have failed to appreciate how badly America's competitors are doing. Brazil cannot project much force anywhere that matters, and as you pointed out, South Africa cannot even keep the lights on. Would America do better against a Russian-backed Mexico than Russia is doing against an American-backed Ukraine? Probably. China's the real wild card here, and they've probably been spending the past couple of decades plotting and preparing. I heard the story today about their bioweapons lab that was discovered (by pure happenstance) in California. I don't think we'll know what they have or are capable of until the actually make their move. Our proxy engagement with Russia is the best thing ever for them; they get to just sit back and watch their competitors bleed each other dry. For America, the additional issue will be its own thoroughly rotted social fabric: fine if there is no major stress on the system, but it will lack resilience in the face of a big black swan event. The next couple of Presidential election cycles will also be potential triggering events. I guess we shall see whose take is correct, though it's entirely possible (especially if it involves a black swan event) that what happens will be unforseen and unforseeable by all! Anyway, great essay! (And I feel your pain with your first teenage crush -- I got friendzoned by mine too!)
Personally, I don’t subscribe to you as a protest against the USA nor do I think your writings about America as a dangerous global hegemon are your best work, but you are an interesting and entertaining read- please keep it up!
[comment: these are reflexives following on from 'we run']
you would not be subscribed to this Substack --> you would not be subscribed to this Substack, unless you are peeping over the fence from the other side!
One on --> On one
The more important is: --> But more important than that question is this one:
expedient --> convenience
OR
expedient --> expeditiousness
[expediency doesnt mean what it needs to mean here]
US Dollar. The US Dollar
[Dollar can be just dollar, no need to capitalise it. Capitalised in a column or title listing, not in normal prose]
It's incredibly necessary to ask these questions, and not just on American military and economic power. It's similar to the way that gold bugs are constantly predicting the imminent failure of the fiat money system. Their critique of the Federal Reserve, fractional reserve banking, etc is on point ... and yet so far, the system has proved incredibly resilient. When large numbers of powerful people stand to profit from the continuation of a system, it doesn't matter how irrational that system is. They can keep it going for a very long time.
Thought provoking as ever and kudos for highlighting the critical distinction between reserve asset and reserve transactional currency. For me, the Brics / SCO dimension is a bit of a distraction - the main players are Russia and China. If they get a system up and running, then the other energy (gulf) producers and global south consumers will follow IMHO.
You are correct to point out the need for demonstrable progress regarding dedollarisation, rather than just talk. The replacement in the area of reserves has been clear for a while - this link regarding transactions may be instructive...... https://archive.vn/l8hOl
Going to comment on this from an "I" , i.e. India perspective. There is basically no cost for India to join this BRICS grouping. On the contrary, countries like India, Brazil often challenge China via this forum on various issues. As far as the common currency goes, the idea was DoA'd swiftly, at least in India.
I suspect that this dedollarization is yet another canard that the Western media uses to scare its own populace. Like you correctly lay out in the piece, it is nothing more than wishful thinking at the moment.
India's role in BRICS and SCO is more akin to what Sir Humphrey thinks Britain's role in EU is (sorry, was) . ( https://youtu.be/ZVYqB0uTKlE?t=115 ) I would highly recommend the book "The India Way" by Dr. S. Jaishankar, India's External Affairs Minister. (https://a.co/d/flM46OW) to get a sense of what the emerging multi-polarity means from an Indian PoV.
Hit the like button at the top of the page to like this essay. Use the share and re-stack buttons to share this across social media. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so.
I tried to make this essay not too long.
great stuff. the BRICS concept is a triumph of marketing that somehow became reality. (One the USA’s greatest strengths and weaknesses!) Thanks for pointing out the absurdity of it all
I haven't been able to find it again, but not that long ago on YouTube I stumbled across a lecture by a historian talking about Yugoslavia. He said people were always saying Yugoslavia was going to collapse, or all hell was going to break out in Yugoslavia. They said this for years, and it kept never happening, and people started saying (in effect), "You've been saying all hell was going to break out for years, give it up." Yes, it's VERY hard to figure out what's going on anywhere. We all know what happened in Japan in WW2. Many people truly believed Japan was going to win the war. They weren't even capable of internalizing the devastation around them, literally everywhere. This is remarkable. So you may be right about the USA; but also you may be wrong. We should be prepared for either. (whatever "prepared" means)
I forgot to mention that Putin can't go to South Africa out of fear of arrest due to ICC warrant issued against him. South Africa is part of BRICS.
Rome wasn't built in a day! And it took centuries for the Roman Empire to completely collapse.
Total aside, but
> Among those who dissent from US foreign policy actions, it has become an article of faith among many of them that the USA is losing the war in Ukraine. The fact of the matter is that the US proxy flag, Ukraine’s, continues to fly east of Kharkov. The fact of the matter is that targets within Russia are still being hit by Ukrainian forces, assisted by some NATO states. Many of these types assured us that the UAF ran out of fuel last year, and could never again conduct an offensive like the (failing) one being conducted now. Many of these types assured us that the UAF was at the breaking point in October of last year. Many of these types are adamant that an overwhelming Russian victory is approaching, one that will drive a stake through the heart of NATO
Basically since the war started, my opinion on it has been the same. I believe it's still valid. Something approximately:
"Literally all sources of information are suspect, as every side is very consciously and deliberately running propaganda on their own people as well as others. The only thing we can say for certainty is that neither Ukraine nor Russia are decisively winning this action, and the longer it drags on, the more certain we can be that neither of them will win _decisively_.
Literally any other position, regardless of whether it is actually true or not, cannot be justified by the available information, because none of the available information is trustworthy
"Among those who dissent from US foreign policy actions, it has become an article of faith among many of them that the USA is losing the war in Ukraine...." This is so interesting to read because among my peer group I'm the only one that thinks Ukraine is not doing well. It's easy to point to the constant reports of Russia being out of ammunition, relying on shovels, sanctions destroying what tiny economy they have, etc. Given the constant info insisting that Russia is on the brink I don't often consider it from the other side and that there is a version of this wishful thinking on that side as well.
Until proven otherwise I think John Mearsheimer still probably has his finger on the pulse better than anyone. He predicts Russian will have an ugly victory. Meaning they will win overall, but not in a way that will have wanted to and not in a way that they will ultimately be satisfied with (for many such reasons).
Thanks for the Andrew Korybko link. Really interesting article.
It would make sense not to rock the boat at this point - for example it would be ridiculous for Putin to force SA's hand in making a 'declaration' regarding arrest/no arrest- so they agree to avoid the issue.
As, you note, all these countries are experiencing significant problems. It would make sense to approach this issue crab wise and in a deniable manner for the present, with an eye to the medium or longer term.
Living under the threat of financial sanctions is not something you'd just accept, if and when you accumulate the power not to.
It might be slow to happen, it might be blocked but the will to attempt is there. There's just too many advantages.
You pose an interesting challenge to my own ideas on this theme, and it's no doubt good for me to ask that question a lot: am I engaged in wishful thinking? I think I have a pretty good read on how badly America is doing on all the fundamentals -- today's America has a fraction of the strength and resilience boasted by Operation Desert Storm era America -- but I wonder if I have failed to appreciate how badly America's competitors are doing. Brazil cannot project much force anywhere that matters, and as you pointed out, South Africa cannot even keep the lights on. Would America do better against a Russian-backed Mexico than Russia is doing against an American-backed Ukraine? Probably. China's the real wild card here, and they've probably been spending the past couple of decades plotting and preparing. I heard the story today about their bioweapons lab that was discovered (by pure happenstance) in California. I don't think we'll know what they have or are capable of until the actually make their move. Our proxy engagement with Russia is the best thing ever for them; they get to just sit back and watch their competitors bleed each other dry. For America, the additional issue will be its own thoroughly rotted social fabric: fine if there is no major stress on the system, but it will lack resilience in the face of a big black swan event. The next couple of Presidential election cycles will also be potential triggering events. I guess we shall see whose take is correct, though it's entirely possible (especially if it involves a black swan event) that what happens will be unforseen and unforseeable by all! Anyway, great essay! (And I feel your pain with your first teenage crush -- I got friendzoned by mine too!)
Personally, I don’t subscribe to you as a protest against the USA nor do I think your writings about America as a dangerous global hegemon are your best work, but you are an interesting and entertaining read- please keep it up!
removing us --> removing ourselves
relocating us --> relocating ourselves
[comment: these are reflexives following on from 'we run']
you would not be subscribed to this Substack --> you would not be subscribed to this Substack, unless you are peeping over the fence from the other side!
One on --> On one
The more important is: --> But more important than that question is this one:
expedient --> convenience
OR
expedient --> expeditiousness
[expediency doesnt mean what it needs to mean here]
US Dollar. The US Dollar
[Dollar can be just dollar, no need to capitalise it. Capitalised in a column or title listing, not in normal prose]
It's incredibly necessary to ask these questions, and not just on American military and economic power. It's similar to the way that gold bugs are constantly predicting the imminent failure of the fiat money system. Their critique of the Federal Reserve, fractional reserve banking, etc is on point ... and yet so far, the system has proved incredibly resilient. When large numbers of powerful people stand to profit from the continuation of a system, it doesn't matter how irrational that system is. They can keep it going for a very long time.
Thought provoking as ever and kudos for highlighting the critical distinction between reserve asset and reserve transactional currency. For me, the Brics / SCO dimension is a bit of a distraction - the main players are Russia and China. If they get a system up and running, then the other energy (gulf) producers and global south consumers will follow IMHO.
You are correct to point out the need for demonstrable progress regarding dedollarisation, rather than just talk. The replacement in the area of reserves has been clear for a while - this link regarding transactions may be instructive...... https://archive.vn/l8hOl
Going to comment on this from an "I" , i.e. India perspective. There is basically no cost for India to join this BRICS grouping. On the contrary, countries like India, Brazil often challenge China via this forum on various issues. As far as the common currency goes, the idea was DoA'd swiftly, at least in India.
I suspect that this dedollarization is yet another canard that the Western media uses to scare its own populace. Like you correctly lay out in the piece, it is nothing more than wishful thinking at the moment.
India's role in BRICS and SCO is more akin to what Sir Humphrey thinks Britain's role in EU is (sorry, was) . ( https://youtu.be/ZVYqB0uTKlE?t=115 ) I would highly recommend the book "The India Way" by Dr. S. Jaishankar, India's External Affairs Minister. (https://a.co/d/flM46OW) to get a sense of what the emerging multi-polarity means from an Indian PoV.
“the factories, the foundries, the shipyards, the iron and coal mines–all the things we haven’t got.”
In the above context, wouldn’t-
US= South
China=North
USA > Russia, but China?