NOW THIS is very interesting to me! I have heard this theory before, but it was based around there being only three chords in rock'n'roll. Is what you're saying doable?
Feb 28, 2022·edited Feb 28, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
We're speaking theoretically here but definitely not. MMM is psyops level drive Noriega out of the bunker high grade crowd control stuff. Plus, you can't dance to it.
For decades there were brief references to polling data showing that immigration was not a major issue for Hispanic voters. (The media"s default assumption being that they'd be pro-immigration.) The only place you'd see Hispanics expressing anti-immigration sentiments would be in films like John Sayles' Lone Star or Robert Rodriguez's goofy action movie Machete.
"Photogenic". And this is a polite way of saying what, Niccolo? P.S. My FEMALE friend says: "He’s really the only analyst I trust and the only source I need for my nonessential geopolitics briefings... One can be Fully Conversant on these matters simply by reading him... A really special guy. Big Titty Goth GFs (Not Fat) Love Niccolo’s Substack"
I glanced at his chart the other day and funnily enough it said that, similar to Boris, his career would be full of strife. He's got a poor relationship with the criminal/political underworld (which nonetheless affords him many opportunities) and he doesn't quite know where to begin in dealing with others, though he's made up for this a bit with very hard work
-Formerly we all heard music on the radio which was the pivot point for promotion. We all heard similar playlists and developed the same ear worms.
-Many artists and groups are chosen for their looks and dance moves but their vocal skills are only passable. Much of the money is in tours and when you hear the music without pyrotechnics, swirling multicolored lasers, stacks of Marshall amps, and a very stoned screaming crowd there's something lacking.
-New music doesn't engage me as it sounds entirely synthetic. Somebody writes the hooks, somebody else the bridges, somebody else the words. Rhythm tracks, keyboards, bass lines, lead vocals and backups are often produced as files in separate places which are then assembled by the recording engineer. Vocals are often autotuned, bass lines are overemphasized, and the mix is loud to give that club feel.
-New music all sounds derivative. Even if it's a new track the chances are I've heard it before. This parallels the current Hollywood trend of rehashing successful movies over and over and over as it feels safer to produce.
it's almost as if the algorithms have taken over. We know that when Clear Channel bought up all the competition on radio in the USA they began to play with algorithms to devise their playlists. Maybe music producers are doing the same thing?
One addition I’ll add is that many classic rock musicians were classically trained. They knew how to meld rhythm and melody. Current musicians, as you note, are really just a front and the current emphasis on rap / R&B doesn’t require one to know much of anything about music composition, etc.
Now, those classically trained musicians gave us Prog Rock which I see as the greatest abomination ever unleashed upon music. I’ll fight anyone on that point too.
You know, given that Niccolo's substack is called "Fisted by Foucault", I can't help by think of the parallels to Jean Baudrillard's idea of simulacra in reference to you saying all music sounding derivative. For what it's worth, I agree with you, so perhaps Baudrillard was onto something. I'm loathe to ever give credit to Postmodernists, but one must give the devil his due.
Essentially 90% of East and Central EU is in an anti-Russian frenzy now, which was always under the surface due to the long history of empire vs nation conflicts. Russia's invasion solidified the pro-NATO side like nothing else could. Russia was tolerated well while within its borders, pushing mild trad Orthodox Christian values, but the moment it took military action, all support crumbled.
I see many Western right wingers siding with it to own the libs. East EU does not have the luxury to choose sides here. I fear Russia's collapse due to financial isolation will drag down with it into oblivion the last shreds of RW dissidence and opposition to GAE.
Out of all the things I have been reading regarding Ukraine, you give the most honest and easiest to understand breakdown of this. I shared your previous article on social media, but it's doubtful it will be read due to an algorithm that puts anything unwoke at the bottom. That and too many are busy virtue signaling by changing their profile pictures with flags and declaring their boycott of all things Russian (whether currently owned by Russians or not). Oh and suddenly leftists want war. Not with their own bodies of course.
Thank you, Mom! Lots of noise out there right out, so quality signals are being drowned out. The deluge of propaganda right now is something that I have never seen. It's entirely one-sided. There was more visible opposition to the Gulf and Iraq Wars.
As a kid it was always reinforced into my generation to be very leery of a nuclear war. I have no faith that Biden is the right person for the job to deal with this situation.
Actually Biden - I am no Dem - is the sanest and most level headed of the bunch.
In truth the Foreign Policy and Intelligence Community slipped the leash on Biden as they have with most Presidents and attempted a Color Revolution in Kazakhstan a month ago, yes last month.
Kazakhstan is Russia's Florida, it's their space program and many other things.
Kazakhstan farce has set off this business in Ukraine, that and said FP/IC community [who are the same] are openly talking regime change along all of Russia's borders and Russia herself.
Putin is a serious man and leader of a very serious group of men, we have his answer. We also have his warning about nuclear war which should be heeded.
adding: the IC and FP community have been essentially off the leash since FDR died, the closest we came to Presidential Control over them was Eisenhower, even he found himself with a CIA helping to overthrow Mossadegh in Iran then aiding Nasser into power in Egypt, a man who made mischief and caused in his way the Suez Crisis and the fall of the British Empire [which was not desirable] and said Nasser was a thorn in our side until the Israelis checked him in 1967. Even Ike could barely control our own monsters.
We also have the Diem coup against Kennedy's wishes, we have Nixon being ousted by the IC, we have what happened to Trump...
So now the IC and FP community are going for broke. See the link in the main post. Lunacy.
I used to think he was as you say "the sanest and most level headed of the bunch". He's shown himself to be weak and panders to the ideologies of the extremists in his party.
Biden is still the sanest and most level headed of the bunch.
He's the only reason we're not in fallout shelters or drifting through fallout clouds. That he is frail and weak is only dismaying until you've had a look at Kamala Harris.
The President is not the government or in control of the Executive Branch for some time, it can be said in fairness that Biden has not established Constitutional control [Trump tried, Nixon tried, we know the result]. Biden is not trying. He is attempting to wield it, the real powers of the President are the King in Chess.
The government is the State Department, you may include CIA here.
You may also of course include the CFR, etc. This is why our foreign policy is now our domestic policy, that is-sanctions.
Sanctions against us.
The extremists in his party are a TV show playing to rented crowds, including and especially the NGOs [who are kids on the hustle].
Biden is weak: every American President since Truman has been weak in Constitutional Terms to a varying degree, because the New Deal ended Constitutional Government but kept the Bill of Rights.
The CIA for example is an Independent Agency by law, like the Federal Reserve, FCC, NRLB, we can go on. FDA played slow drag version of hardball on COVID because they have been lobbying for years to become an "Independent Agency." If you think the Federal Reserve is a sweet deal imagine what having Independent power over Food and Drugs would be....
As for the extremists in his 'party' he 'panders' to - that is a TV show.
You are literally watching a WWE Professional Wrestling Match, with the Republicans always playing the clowns who go to the mat [well paid for their services].
Biden's party is the party of government. That we are not irradiated at this moment is due to his spending his life in government.
The actual political party if you accept that Politics is Power is...the government and their henchmen. Henchwomen, HenchTrans, Hench____
Every POTUS since FDR has fed this beast [FDR created] and that's their only real constituency- government and cronies.
The rest have no party and have no party. The 'Extremists' you see him pandering to are simply kids doing a job interview, the job is performance art. This is because they don't want to be hapless peasants, this is simply human nature.
Thanks for sharing, it is always a good morning when I wake up to one of your new additions.
A few quick thoughts:
IEDs peaked in Iraq when university-educated engineers in Iran made component-based, explosively-formed penetrator devices that could be broken down, smuggled across the border, and reassembled before being used to destroy the most heavily armored vehicles in America's arsenal. These vehicles were specifically designed to be EFP resistant, however, the tech coming out of the insurgent network proved too capable and too lethal. This was late in the war, around the 2010-2012 timeframe, prior to the rise of ISIS. These EFPs represented the pinnacle of 7 years of improvisation by the insurgent network, and the greatest threat to ground forces on a daily basis. These systems exacted a large toll on US forces.
The Javelin missile system uses a HEAT warhead, which also uses an explosively-formed penetrator, and is capable of destroying tanks that have been upgraded with reactive armor. Basically, a Javelin is portable, easy to use, and can destroy any of the armor that Russia has brought into Ukraine. It is a worst-nightmare weapon for an occupier to be facing. This isn't the worst threat facing the Russians, however, as Ukraine has been flooded with tightly controlled stinger missiles. These missiles are capable of easily shooting down jets and helicopters, a capability that America NEVER had to deal with with in the middle east, (RPGs are not self-guided).
Considering this comparison, a long-term occupation of Ukraine will be unimaginably disastrous for Russian forces. I wonder how many tanks and helicopters the Russians will have to lose before they start bombing and killing indiscriminately. The future does not look bright for Ukraine, or for Russia.
It's called artillery and it outranges any Javelin, stinger or Granny Fashion model with AK.
There's no reason not to blanket an area with artillery if you know that Javelins, Stingers and Granny Fashion Model with AK's are waiting there to kill you, war is killing them before they kill you.
It's not indiscriminate killing if you use artillery to suppress known enemy strongholds.
Finally the very phrase 'start bombing and killing indiscriminately" betrays a lack of knowledge of war, war is killing and not police work or 'discriminate' violence. It's war.
And yes war is using all means to win.
The Russian military doctrine which they have not yet applied is artillery is the arm of decision, Armor and infantry support the main effort which is artillery, rockets, air strikes.
or in short the infantry and tanks walk over rubble and corpses.
Okay, Spartacus. You’ve rallied the men. In all seriousness, Putin doesn’t want to go all “total” war because it’ll further tarnish his spoils and his reputation. By your own logic, Russia would be launching nuclear weapons right now. Put your popsicle back in your mouth, the adults are talking.
Jesse, you're not an adult you're a child with your mom's taunts.
[no daddy either I warrant with such a remark].
Now put the adult back in your mouth and learn...
Jesse I'm a combat veteran and have over 20 years service, in all seriousness.
I know the business and how serious it is...
I"m objecting to the romantic notions afoot about the Ukrainian resistance, JAVELIN missiles [I'm a JAVELIN/TOW gunner and instructor, the enemy answer is to clear with artillery long before we're in range. It's basic].
As far as the romantic notions concerning IEDs and the rest...the State Dept and the American Left cannot dictate defeat to Russia as they dictated to us.
In truth Counter-Insurgency if waged ruthlessly is a matter of weeks.
We for instance waged a short campaign of counter-guerrilla operations in Korea during the Korean war that involved wiping out the villages involved.
And Putin didn't go total or whatever you called it...until this afternoon.
The RU held back on artillery to see if the Ukrainian's would see reason and they did not , so artillery is now in play.
With just the artillery in the Ukraine or for that matter their air assets they can level those cities or combat formations - and will.
They can also sweep the UKr air force from the sky and perhaps will.
I do agree that they are trying or perhaps were trying to minimize damage to Ukraine, they probably still are or this would be over conventionally very quickly.
That leaves the vaunted resistance. Again I spoke sharply about the powers of artillery to dispel the romantic myths concerning 'resistance'.
Absent an entire set of conditions not necessarily present here: continuous support in all logistical and money matters, foreign allies who backstop you with troops and freedom of movement while the enemy is tied up with occupation then resistance is a short story.
Some of these conditions are being created or activated by the USA in the Ukraine, as are explicit intentions to force a change of government in Russia.
Russia is saying Nyet and they have nukes to enforce the Nyet.
I don't think they'll be long term resistance, I think the Russians wil bring full weight to bear as needed and the resistance will end some weeks after the war is over if not immediately. I think your analysis of my logic is not entirely off as nukes are now in play...Putin made it clear the price of intervention.
The romance of war will only wear off it seems by experiencing it firsthand, but I did object strongly I admit rebutting the JAVELIN argument.
I will stand by it and the rest, sorry if the rebuttal was too emphatic.
I'm right by the way about the mostly silent artillery, this ends swiftly after the conventional forces are released to win.
I am still trying to find where I indicated to you that I thought the Ukrainian military was superior to the Russians. I do apologize for the quip, I shouldn't reply in the early mornings.
My post was pointing out, with evidence, that this insurgency is better-equipped as insurgencies go and can inflict costly tolls on an objectively poor military. The Russian military is poor. I remember in Syria they were supposed to maintain this "bombing campaign of absolute destruction" or something ridiculous according to their press, and they ran out of jet fuel in 6 days. Granted the logistics are much easier for them now, but if they lose 10-20 Su0-35s at 45-60 million a piece, Putin is going to be in a world of hurt. I saw a video this morning of a Javelin destroying a T-90SM in Southern Ukraine. That's 4.5 million without its armament. Russia's GDP is only 1.4 trillion. They don't have a lot to throw around, and that's before the sanctions.
How many main battle tanks and F-22s did we lose in OIF, OEF, OIR, OND, OFS?
As far as Ukraine becoming a long term insurgency, my bet would be this is going to last YEARS. We will see who is right...
Lastly, I'm not going to compare service records online, it isn't my style. I also don't put a CIB sticker on the window of my truck. You incorrectly assume my experience, employment, and status.. Being a Javelin instructor sounds like my worst nightmare, working for Tradoc and wearing a uniform all day. Vomit. I hope not at Benning as that place sucks. On a different note, I am happy to see other servicemembers reading this substack, the content is great.
[I'm a Javelin instructor for a line unit NG and normally don't bring it all up, it's trying to hear the word Javelin thrown around like it's a magic sword].
Since you know the business: the Russians have great superiority of artillery not only over Ukraine but frankly us as well, unless we want to move Ft. Hood and probably Ft. Stewart and Ft. Bragg, screw it Carson too into Europe. We'd really have to pretty much empty out CONUS and activate the entire Guard and reserves to get match/overmatch in Europe.
But there's a bigger problem; we already have a nukewarn from Putin. Let's remember we're on their border and worse we're threatening regime change all the way to Moscow, Kazakhstan last month told the Russians we mean it, and that any peaceful intentions Biden had are gone [the IC and FP community have slipped the leash from Biden, as they do most Presidents].
As far as the cost of an insurgency to Russia: to Russia this is existential and they're probably correct. That means the insurgency has at best even if organized and resourced a lifespan of weeks.
Counterinsurgency is only costly the way we do it, because it's about getting 20 years out of 17 months of ruthless fighting in Afghanistan, or a few months of ruthlessness by the British in Iraq in 1925. They weren't being strung out by contractors and their pet Generals, we were. The Russians mastered of all places Chechnya - and now the Chechen's fight for them!
In ww2 the British - absolute masters of this sort of thing - estimated the life span of any resistance cell to Nazi occupation to 2 weeks. This is correct.
In Sri Lanka the absolute peak of guerrilla armies the Tamil Tigers were defeated in months once the Sri Lankan's took off the gloves of the International Community and just pounded them to dust with...
Artillery.
We ourselves waged a brief counter guerrilla operation in Korea during the Korean war, over in a couple of weeks. The ROKs just killed everyone.
It's only hard if your side makes it hard.
If and when the Russians who seem to be using above all maneuver to get into position then use their artillery as per common use and especially their doctrine [artillery is the arm of decision] then it's over.
Counter insurgency is scorched earth and it's done.
It's been working since the Romans in Gaul if not before.
It's just another PhD myth. Hell we didn't even do that in the surge, we just said we did. It's all nonsense.
“Machines don’t believe in fictions—or not yet, anyway.”
All I think of with this comment is ‘Tay’ and the…opinions…that were developed over a short time while interacting with people.
I imagine some DARPA lab where teams of scientists are building an AI platform and desperately saying to it, “Affirm Black Lives Matter” and the AI says “But they don’t”.
Ah well, I agree with you most of the time and I find US wokeism as very insufferable. In fact. I like Putin's stance on social issues and in support of traditional values.
This been said.... I dont think Vladimir has a grasp on reality. He rules a country that wants to play super power-antagonist to NATO.... with an economy the size of South Korea.
While the combined budget of NATO is 1.2 TRILLION dollars:
If you pay 5 dollars for something Russian and the price for the exact same American version is 500 dollars, what's the difference other than budget?
Also, GDP is a horrible measure of economic strength. There are many more variables at play. I'm not saying that Russia can take on NATO as a whole, but they can defend themselves.
Thanks Niccolo foru your Sat Commentary. Just rea the first article, it crazes me a bit that the author totally forgot the low birth ratio of ukrainians and other western europeans that suppossedly will go there to fight on front line ranks, a must in any insurgency scenario
Man, I wish Putler would pay me for being correct.
Nfmi
You misunderstood. My "mea culpa" was in reference to me not seeing the invasion happening as soon as it did.
I support it, as should all lovers of freedom from US hegemony. One evil empire down (USSR), one more to go (USA).
Fuck you, "Niccolo"
NOW THIS is very interesting to me! I have heard this theory before, but it was based around there being only three chords in rock'n'roll. Is what you're saying doable?
Doable but not listenable. Who grabs the earbuds and a glass of brandy to sit down for an evening with Arnold Schoenberg? Pretty much nobody.
I stand corrected. Condolences my friend.
Can it be any worse than Metal Machine Music by Lou Reed?
We're speaking theoretically here but definitely not. MMM is psyops level drive Noriega out of the bunker high grade crowd control stuff. Plus, you can't dance to it.
A solid take - well done.
A little late, but better late than never. Like it, share it, and leave a comment if the mood strikes you.
For decades there were brief references to polling data showing that immigration was not a major issue for Hispanic voters. (The media"s default assumption being that they'd be pro-immigration.) The only place you'd see Hispanics expressing anti-immigration sentiments would be in films like John Sayles' Lone Star or Robert Rodriguez's goofy action movie Machete.
"Photogenic". And this is a polite way of saying what, Niccolo? P.S. My FEMALE friend says: "He’s really the only analyst I trust and the only source I need for my nonessential geopolitics briefings... One can be Fully Conversant on these matters simply by reading him... A really special guy. Big Titty Goth GFs (Not Fat) Love Niccolo’s Substack"
Send pic
She did send me one, thank you
P.S. Astrology sez the love of Old Music will peter out in the mid-20s
Have you done a reading for Zelensky yet?
I glanced at his chart the other day and funnily enough it said that, similar to Boris, his career would be full of strife. He's got a poor relationship with the criminal/political underworld (which nonetheless affords him many opportunities) and he doesn't quite know where to begin in dealing with others, though he's made up for this a bit with very hard work
>Mea culpa
no, it won't fly, "Niccolo"
Some thoughts about current popular music:
-Formerly we all heard music on the radio which was the pivot point for promotion. We all heard similar playlists and developed the same ear worms.
-Many artists and groups are chosen for their looks and dance moves but their vocal skills are only passable. Much of the money is in tours and when you hear the music without pyrotechnics, swirling multicolored lasers, stacks of Marshall amps, and a very stoned screaming crowd there's something lacking.
-New music doesn't engage me as it sounds entirely synthetic. Somebody writes the hooks, somebody else the bridges, somebody else the words. Rhythm tracks, keyboards, bass lines, lead vocals and backups are often produced as files in separate places which are then assembled by the recording engineer. Vocals are often autotuned, bass lines are overemphasized, and the mix is loud to give that club feel.
-New music all sounds derivative. Even if it's a new track the chances are I've heard it before. This parallels the current Hollywood trend of rehashing successful movies over and over and over as it feels safer to produce.
it's almost as if the algorithms have taken over. We know that when Clear Channel bought up all the competition on radio in the USA they began to play with algorithms to devise their playlists. Maybe music producers are doing the same thing?
One addition I’ll add is that many classic rock musicians were classically trained. They knew how to meld rhythm and melody. Current musicians, as you note, are really just a front and the current emphasis on rap / R&B doesn’t require one to know much of anything about music composition, etc.
Now, those classically trained musicians gave us Prog Rock which I see as the greatest abomination ever unleashed upon music. I’ll fight anyone on that point too.
You know, given that Niccolo's substack is called "Fisted by Foucault", I can't help by think of the parallels to Jean Baudrillard's idea of simulacra in reference to you saying all music sounding derivative. For what it's worth, I agree with you, so perhaps Baudrillard was onto something. I'm loathe to ever give credit to Postmodernists, but one must give the devil his due.
I am very partial to Baudrillard
Essentially 90% of East and Central EU is in an anti-Russian frenzy now, which was always under the surface due to the long history of empire vs nation conflicts. Russia's invasion solidified the pro-NATO side like nothing else could. Russia was tolerated well while within its borders, pushing mild trad Orthodox Christian values, but the moment it took military action, all support crumbled.
I see many Western right wingers siding with it to own the libs. East EU does not have the luxury to choose sides here. I fear Russia's collapse due to financial isolation will drag down with it into oblivion the last shreds of RW dissidence and opposition to GAE.
This will suck badly whichever way it goes.
Out of all the things I have been reading regarding Ukraine, you give the most honest and easiest to understand breakdown of this. I shared your previous article on social media, but it's doubtful it will be read due to an algorithm that puts anything unwoke at the bottom. That and too many are busy virtue signaling by changing their profile pictures with flags and declaring their boycott of all things Russian (whether currently owned by Russians or not). Oh and suddenly leftists want war. Not with their own bodies of course.
Thank you, Mom! Lots of noise out there right out, so quality signals are being drowned out. The deluge of propaganda right now is something that I have never seen. It's entirely one-sided. There was more visible opposition to the Gulf and Iraq Wars.
As a kid it was always reinforced into my generation to be very leery of a nuclear war. I have no faith that Biden is the right person for the job to deal with this situation.
Actually Biden - I am no Dem - is the sanest and most level headed of the bunch.
In truth the Foreign Policy and Intelligence Community slipped the leash on Biden as they have with most Presidents and attempted a Color Revolution in Kazakhstan a month ago, yes last month.
Kazakhstan is Russia's Florida, it's their space program and many other things.
Kazakhstan farce has set off this business in Ukraine, that and said FP/IC community [who are the same] are openly talking regime change along all of Russia's borders and Russia herself.
Putin is a serious man and leader of a very serious group of men, we have his answer. We also have his warning about nuclear war which should be heeded.
adding: the IC and FP community have been essentially off the leash since FDR died, the closest we came to Presidential Control over them was Eisenhower, even he found himself with a CIA helping to overthrow Mossadegh in Iran then aiding Nasser into power in Egypt, a man who made mischief and caused in his way the Suez Crisis and the fall of the British Empire [which was not desirable] and said Nasser was a thorn in our side until the Israelis checked him in 1967. Even Ike could barely control our own monsters.
We also have the Diem coup against Kennedy's wishes, we have Nixon being ousted by the IC, we have what happened to Trump...
So now the IC and FP community are going for broke. See the link in the main post. Lunacy.
I used to think he was as you say "the sanest and most level headed of the bunch". He's shown himself to be weak and panders to the ideologies of the extremists in his party.
Biden is still the sanest and most level headed of the bunch.
He's the only reason we're not in fallout shelters or drifting through fallout clouds. That he is frail and weak is only dismaying until you've had a look at Kamala Harris.
The President is not the government or in control of the Executive Branch for some time, it can be said in fairness that Biden has not established Constitutional control [Trump tried, Nixon tried, we know the result]. Biden is not trying. He is attempting to wield it, the real powers of the President are the King in Chess.
The government is the State Department, you may include CIA here.
You may also of course include the CFR, etc. This is why our foreign policy is now our domestic policy, that is-sanctions.
Sanctions against us.
The extremists in his party are a TV show playing to rented crowds, including and especially the NGOs [who are kids on the hustle].
Biden is weak: every American President since Truman has been weak in Constitutional Terms to a varying degree, because the New Deal ended Constitutional Government but kept the Bill of Rights.
The CIA for example is an Independent Agency by law, like the Federal Reserve, FCC, NRLB, we can go on. FDA played slow drag version of hardball on COVID because they have been lobbying for years to become an "Independent Agency." If you think the Federal Reserve is a sweet deal imagine what having Independent power over Food and Drugs would be....
As for the extremists in his 'party' he 'panders' to - that is a TV show.
You are literally watching a WWE Professional Wrestling Match, with the Republicans always playing the clowns who go to the mat [well paid for their services].
Biden's party is the party of government. That we are not irradiated at this moment is due to his spending his life in government.
The actual political party if you accept that Politics is Power is...the government and their henchmen. Henchwomen, HenchTrans, Hench____
Every POTUS since FDR has fed this beast [FDR created] and that's their only real constituency- government and cronies.
The rest have no party and have no party. The 'Extremists' you see him pandering to are simply kids doing a job interview, the job is performance art. This is because they don't want to be hapless peasants, this is simply human nature.
Thanks for sharing, it is always a good morning when I wake up to one of your new additions.
A few quick thoughts:
IEDs peaked in Iraq when university-educated engineers in Iran made component-based, explosively-formed penetrator devices that could be broken down, smuggled across the border, and reassembled before being used to destroy the most heavily armored vehicles in America's arsenal. These vehicles were specifically designed to be EFP resistant, however, the tech coming out of the insurgent network proved too capable and too lethal. This was late in the war, around the 2010-2012 timeframe, prior to the rise of ISIS. These EFPs represented the pinnacle of 7 years of improvisation by the insurgent network, and the greatest threat to ground forces on a daily basis. These systems exacted a large toll on US forces.
The Javelin missile system uses a HEAT warhead, which also uses an explosively-formed penetrator, and is capable of destroying tanks that have been upgraded with reactive armor. Basically, a Javelin is portable, easy to use, and can destroy any of the armor that Russia has brought into Ukraine. It is a worst-nightmare weapon for an occupier to be facing. This isn't the worst threat facing the Russians, however, as Ukraine has been flooded with tightly controlled stinger missiles. These missiles are capable of easily shooting down jets and helicopters, a capability that America NEVER had to deal with with in the middle east, (RPGs are not self-guided).
Considering this comparison, a long-term occupation of Ukraine will be unimaginably disastrous for Russian forces. I wonder how many tanks and helicopters the Russians will have to lose before they start bombing and killing indiscriminately. The future does not look bright for Ukraine, or for Russia.
It's called artillery and it outranges any Javelin, stinger or Granny Fashion model with AK.
There's no reason not to blanket an area with artillery if you know that Javelins, Stingers and Granny Fashion Model with AK's are waiting there to kill you, war is killing them before they kill you.
It's not indiscriminate killing if you use artillery to suppress known enemy strongholds.
Finally the very phrase 'start bombing and killing indiscriminately" betrays a lack of knowledge of war, war is killing and not police work or 'discriminate' violence. It's war.
And yes war is using all means to win.
The Russian military doctrine which they have not yet applied is artillery is the arm of decision, Armor and infantry support the main effort which is artillery, rockets, air strikes.
or in short the infantry and tanks walk over rubble and corpses.
Okay, Spartacus. You’ve rallied the men. In all seriousness, Putin doesn’t want to go all “total” war because it’ll further tarnish his spoils and his reputation. By your own logic, Russia would be launching nuclear weapons right now. Put your popsicle back in your mouth, the adults are talking.
Jesse, you're not an adult you're a child with your mom's taunts.
[no daddy either I warrant with such a remark].
Now put the adult back in your mouth and learn...
Jesse I'm a combat veteran and have over 20 years service, in all seriousness.
I know the business and how serious it is...
I"m objecting to the romantic notions afoot about the Ukrainian resistance, JAVELIN missiles [I'm a JAVELIN/TOW gunner and instructor, the enemy answer is to clear with artillery long before we're in range. It's basic].
As far as the romantic notions concerning IEDs and the rest...the State Dept and the American Left cannot dictate defeat to Russia as they dictated to us.
In truth Counter-Insurgency if waged ruthlessly is a matter of weeks.
We for instance waged a short campaign of counter-guerrilla operations in Korea during the Korean war that involved wiping out the villages involved.
And Putin didn't go total or whatever you called it...until this afternoon.
The RU held back on artillery to see if the Ukrainian's would see reason and they did not , so artillery is now in play.
With just the artillery in the Ukraine or for that matter their air assets they can level those cities or combat formations - and will.
They can also sweep the UKr air force from the sky and perhaps will.
I do agree that they are trying or perhaps were trying to minimize damage to Ukraine, they probably still are or this would be over conventionally very quickly.
That leaves the vaunted resistance. Again I spoke sharply about the powers of artillery to dispel the romantic myths concerning 'resistance'.
Absent an entire set of conditions not necessarily present here: continuous support in all logistical and money matters, foreign allies who backstop you with troops and freedom of movement while the enemy is tied up with occupation then resistance is a short story.
Some of these conditions are being created or activated by the USA in the Ukraine, as are explicit intentions to force a change of government in Russia.
Russia is saying Nyet and they have nukes to enforce the Nyet.
I don't think they'll be long term resistance, I think the Russians wil bring full weight to bear as needed and the resistance will end some weeks after the war is over if not immediately. I think your analysis of my logic is not entirely off as nukes are now in play...Putin made it clear the price of intervention.
The romance of war will only wear off it seems by experiencing it firsthand, but I did object strongly I admit rebutting the JAVELIN argument.
I will stand by it and the rest, sorry if the rebuttal was too emphatic.
I'm right by the way about the mostly silent artillery, this ends swiftly after the conventional forces are released to win.
I am still trying to find where I indicated to you that I thought the Ukrainian military was superior to the Russians. I do apologize for the quip, I shouldn't reply in the early mornings.
My post was pointing out, with evidence, that this insurgency is better-equipped as insurgencies go and can inflict costly tolls on an objectively poor military. The Russian military is poor. I remember in Syria they were supposed to maintain this "bombing campaign of absolute destruction" or something ridiculous according to their press, and they ran out of jet fuel in 6 days. Granted the logistics are much easier for them now, but if they lose 10-20 Su0-35s at 45-60 million a piece, Putin is going to be in a world of hurt. I saw a video this morning of a Javelin destroying a T-90SM in Southern Ukraine. That's 4.5 million without its armament. Russia's GDP is only 1.4 trillion. They don't have a lot to throw around, and that's before the sanctions.
How many main battle tanks and F-22s did we lose in OIF, OEF, OIR, OND, OFS?
As far as Ukraine becoming a long term insurgency, my bet would be this is going to last YEARS. We will see who is right...
Lastly, I'm not going to compare service records online, it isn't my style. I also don't put a CIB sticker on the window of my truck. You incorrectly assume my experience, employment, and status.. Being a Javelin instructor sounds like my worst nightmare, working for Tradoc and wearing a uniform all day. Vomit. I hope not at Benning as that place sucks. On a different note, I am happy to see other servicemembers reading this substack, the content is great.
I apologize for being snippy in turn.
[I'm a Javelin instructor for a line unit NG and normally don't bring it all up, it's trying to hear the word Javelin thrown around like it's a magic sword].
Since you know the business: the Russians have great superiority of artillery not only over Ukraine but frankly us as well, unless we want to move Ft. Hood and probably Ft. Stewart and Ft. Bragg, screw it Carson too into Europe. We'd really have to pretty much empty out CONUS and activate the entire Guard and reserves to get match/overmatch in Europe.
But there's a bigger problem; we already have a nukewarn from Putin. Let's remember we're on their border and worse we're threatening regime change all the way to Moscow, Kazakhstan last month told the Russians we mean it, and that any peaceful intentions Biden had are gone [the IC and FP community have slipped the leash from Biden, as they do most Presidents].
As far as the cost of an insurgency to Russia: to Russia this is existential and they're probably correct. That means the insurgency has at best even if organized and resourced a lifespan of weeks.
Counterinsurgency is only costly the way we do it, because it's about getting 20 years out of 17 months of ruthless fighting in Afghanistan, or a few months of ruthlessness by the British in Iraq in 1925. They weren't being strung out by contractors and their pet Generals, we were. The Russians mastered of all places Chechnya - and now the Chechen's fight for them!
In ww2 the British - absolute masters of this sort of thing - estimated the life span of any resistance cell to Nazi occupation to 2 weeks. This is correct.
In Sri Lanka the absolute peak of guerrilla armies the Tamil Tigers were defeated in months once the Sri Lankan's took off the gloves of the International Community and just pounded them to dust with...
Artillery.
We ourselves waged a brief counter guerrilla operation in Korea during the Korean war, over in a couple of weeks. The ROKs just killed everyone.
It's only hard if your side makes it hard.
If and when the Russians who seem to be using above all maneuver to get into position then use their artillery as per common use and especially their doctrine [artillery is the arm of decision] then it's over.
Counter insurgency is scorched earth and it's done.
It's been working since the Romans in Gaul if not before.
It's just another PhD myth. Hell we didn't even do that in the surge, we just said we did. It's all nonsense.
"IEDs peaked in Iraq when university-educated engineers in Iran made component-based"
GE components at that
“Machines don’t believe in fictions—or not yet, anyway.”
All I think of with this comment is ‘Tay’ and the…opinions…that were developed over a short time while interacting with people.
I imagine some DARPA lab where teams of scientists are building an AI platform and desperately saying to it, “Affirm Black Lives Matter” and the AI says “But they don’t”.
Tay was awesome
Russia, Russia,Russia! But nobody cares about Yemen.
Charlie don't surf, and Yemen ain't got no nukes...
Neither does Ukraine since they trusted us...
Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine! But nobody cares about Yemen.
Ah well, I agree with you most of the time and I find US wokeism as very insufferable. In fact. I like Putin's stance on social issues and in support of traditional values.
This been said.... I dont think Vladimir has a grasp on reality. He rules a country that wants to play super power-antagonist to NATO.... with an economy the size of South Korea.
While the combined budget of NATO is 1.2 TRILLION dollars:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/this-is-how-much-nato-countries-spend-on-defense/
and Russia spends 154 BILLION in defence... a whole order of magnitude less:
https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=russia
He might ( and Im sure will) win in Ukraine..but like Thanos in Avengers.. at what cost??
Now all Euro-countries skeptical of NATO want to join, and even conservatives skeptical of that Cold war relic are finding new love for it.
Talk about not learning the lessons of the fall of the Soviet Union.
If you pay 5 dollars for something Russian and the price for the exact same American version is 500 dollars, what's the difference other than budget?
Also, GDP is a horrible measure of economic strength. There are many more variables at play. I'm not saying that Russia can take on NATO as a whole, but they can defend themselves.
Wot is NATO?
We’re gonna find out.
Putin say “Call.”
Russia gets more bang for the ruble then we do for the buck.
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf
Thanks Niccolo foru your Sat Commentary. Just rea the first article, it crazes me a bit that the author totally forgot the low birth ratio of ukrainians and other western europeans that suppossedly will go there to fight on front line ranks, a must in any insurgency scenario