Putinism at 25, US Truth and Reconciliation Committee for 2025, The End of the Liberal Era?, Stewart Lee The Little Shit, My Life With Penguins in the Antarctic
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I cannot understand your respect for Putin's Russia other than just generic appreciation for strong man tactics, regardless of ideology. What ideology does Russia promote, other than its own geopolitical goals and sabotage of the West? Not saying that him (or Xi) are without qualities, not at all, but I am saying they are a competitor and never a friend.
US' interests in the ME are similar to Russia's. Neither empire is ideological, they just pursue power. That's fine, but if you're not American or Russian, it's BAD for you. Complicated for smaller countries like yours, yes. But I cannot see how one protection umbrella will be better than the other.
Treat these vast land entities as enemies and competitors that want a weak Europe they can easily control and implement their sphere of influence over. IMO.
PS:l almost forgot - Putin has persecuted the local Russian ethnonationalists and for his regime, I could nearly guarantee that all of us here would be treated as "Nazis" and locked up for our opinions. European identities and nationalism(s) are literally treated as fascism/national socialism by Russia, and seen as targets for destruction.
This cannot ever be supported - again, in my humble estimation.
I don't share the optimism regarding Trump. In my eyes he is a coward. He will go after the easy targets but he has neither the knowledge, the brains or the stamina for a fight against vested interests like what is needed to uncover the truth about covid.
Roffel: Well said and largely correct but think a mischaracterization.
Trump I think has a nose for the bottom line: profit in general and what makes him look good always.
So ya you are right: coward, brain power, stamina, all lacking, but that’s always been his M.O. He doesn’t bother to hide it. He blows past learned ideas with a smirk and sarcastic insult.
His argument is always: ya fancy pants you have a smart plan but you are too weak to get power like me, I did it and only I could do it (loser) and I don’t give a shit about your correctness. He stands tall and proud, then with a pregnant pause and a Cheshire cat smile on his face, he dares you to knock him off his perch.
He will do the transaction that is doable and the fact that you don’t know that’s how it works is proof you are a loser.
He defeated the uniparty, twice. Any and all arguments pale in comparison to his accomplishment - an unauthorized president! - and he rubs your nose in it.
Putin’s problem is not that he is ruthless. It's that he is naive and trusting (as shown by the Minsk accords, which everyone but he knew were a sham from the outset). He doesn't want to make war on the West but to join it and refuses to admit that Russia will always be hated and feared, that the West will be satisfied with nothing but the utter destruction of Russia.
Putin is a decent man. He could not have anticipated the malice of the EU or the reckless mendacity of the Normandy process. Lavrov was right about Russophobia now resembling the classical forms of radical antisemitism: hostility as a totalising form of enmity. Europe is sick. No prospects for any cure that I can see.
I would say that the cruel and slavish nature of the West was long on full display, just that Putin foolishly didn't think they'd do that to us, not us!
N.b. I have long noted that Russians are today's all-purpose scapegoats, the way Jews oce were.
I tend to agree with this take. After spending a full half century engaged in perhaps the greatest political and ideological struggle in the history of mankind, why wouldn't the leader of one of the adversaries, a decade after his country collapsed and mere years after it collapsed again from the other direction, think that perhaps the end of history was a grudging handshake with the US and everyone finally recognizing the plain fact that Russia is, while culturally distinct in a litany of ways, also European as fuck?
If Putin had pushed through in 2014/2015 he might have conquered Ukraine with a lot less effort. But it is an open question how well that would have worked. You need a lot of soldiers to keep such a huge country occupied and the West would certainly have made an effort to organize a guerrilla.
In 2015 Russia wasn't ready for the wave of sanctions that would hit it in 2022. In those seven years it also did a lot to modernize its military industry.
Putin is conservative in the sense that he doesn't change things if there is no need for change. It was from that position that he gave the Minsk Agreements a chance. Given the devastating war one can argue that that didn't work well in Ukraine. But at the same time it may have saved Russia from a lot of other trouble.
The one thing all successful insurgencies in recent decades have in common IA a young population. The median age in Yemen is 19. The median age in Ukraine was over 40.
As to how allowing the West to pour weapons into Ukraine since 2014 makes dealing with an insurgency easier is better left unsaid.
Moscow's position, if I understand it properly, was initially quasi-Leninist: keep Ukraine as a buffer between Russia and the West. In 2014/15 Moscow did not anticipate how extreme the new regime in Kiev would be or how committed the West was to its proxies.
Also, Donetsk and Lughansk made no demand to join the Russian Federation till 2022. Their demand was simply autonomy and protection for the Russian language.
Great SCR. However, you left out a few salient facts about Putin. The US had effective control over Russia under Yeltsin. The US had a patron/client relationship with the oligarchs and Washington did everything it could to plunder Russia and wreck it in the process. The results were a form of systemic dysfunction and depraved indifference to human suffering. Putin's entire political project has been to repair the damage of the Yeltsin era and to counter Wsshington's influence within the territories of the former USSR.
Putin's success in getting Russia back on its feet has earned him enormous respect overseas, especially in Asia. Serious political players across the world think highly of him. The contrast with the growing contempt for the Atlanticist political class could hardly be greater.
Europe's inability to work with Putin demonstrates how truly worthless the EU truly is. Brussels was offered opportunities that could have underpinned European prosperity for generations to come. Yet the Euros threw away those opportunities. Xenophobia and Russophobia played a part, as did the servility of the EU to Washington and the defining mediocrity and senselessness of the European political class.
Keeping Germany and Russia apart is integral to Anglo foreign policy. IMHO the two greatest heroes of diplomacy in the 20th century were Walter Rathenau and Gregory Chicherin. Rapallo was the gold standard of geopolitical sanity.
It's amazing to me that Germany has willingly committed national suicide via its energy policy and sanctions on Russia, mainly at the US behest. They didn't even grumble when the US destroyed the Nord Stream 2.
One thing that doesn't get much attention in regards to Russian policy is what I call the "I coulds have beens an oligarchs" crowd. If it hadn't been for Putin, they would have teamed up with their 6th cousin by marriage twice removed to "invest" in Russia, and would be sitting on their megayatch in the Riviera with lingerie models for company. "EXCEPT FOR THAT MEDDLING PUTIN, IT WOULDA BEEN ALL MINES".
There is no possibility of reconciliation between MAGA and the Deep State. Trump's opponents want him dead. They tried to kill him twice during the election campaign. Trump either crushes the criminal networks within the leadership of the intelligence sector or they will destroy him and his family.
Trump can do this easily enough. He can reclassify any number of documents that could expose the DeepnState as a nest of self-interested, utterly corrupt, gangsters. Once Trump's picks have enough to charge villains over Jan 6 etc he will have the opportunity to play off elements of the Deep State against each other. Immunity for whistle lowers etc.
Trump also needs to go after Obama, who orchestrated the Russiagate hoax from the very beginning. There is no safety without cutting off the head of the snake.
One wonders how much access elected politicians and their staff/cabinets really will ever have to any truly damaging documents - probably multiple levels of surreptitious
Most Jews want us dead. 80 percent of them voted for Harris and support the political persecution of MAGA. Don't deny the right of people to hate such an evil group who are destroying our system of justice. Tribe is a perfect example of an evil Jew. They hate white Christians. It is time to reclaim the segregation of the past. You can't live in a modern society with these people.
As I see it the left has taken the position of religion in nowadays society. Being "right" is for them often more important than being logical. It suffers under all the abuses that we associate with sects, including cronyism and greed.
Trump and also many of the new rightwing politicians in Europe are just populists. They hear the complaints about the left and they pretend to answer them. But many of them don't have ideas of their own. They will just avoid the most obvious excesses of the left.
From a distance there is above all continuity between Obama, Trump and Biden. They focus on making America great by exploiting other countries. Their main initiatives are wars and regime change.
In contrast Putin chose to focus on Russia's interests. He had little choice given the poverty and sanctions. Yet the way he has accomplished his job is remarkable. It must have involved a lot of attention to detail.
80 percent of Jews and 90 percent of blacks voted for Harris and a dementia patient. We know who the Left is. Why do you guys keep up this nonsense? Our ancestors were right.
Putin was a part of the collapse. These days, I think the Eastasia administration purposely collapsed it so they can "modernize" their political oligarchs into economic oligarchs. These oligarchs still run Russia, like Herman Gref who is sort of their Elon Musk, pushing digital currency through his bank Sber.
I used to think Russia under Putin was truly anti empire, as they didn't participate in the Iraq war. However, I was disappointed that they didn't call out the huge bullshit narrative around 911, the reason that gave the west carte blanche to terrorize the middle east.
I later thought that perhaps they would nail the west as many still think, Russia playing 5d chess.
But I grew disappointed as Russia did little to nothing to stop Libya being turned into a slave state.
And then COVID hit.
Russia had regional mandates (and an Astra Zeneca like shot), Putin and others became obsessed with PCR testing and masks. WTF, they fell for the Western COVID scam?!?
2 possibilities:
-so stupid they didn't realize the "cure"was worth than the "disease"
-they know it's bullshit and used it to screw their own people
And then Syria happened....
After years of Russia helping their ally but not challenging the illegal US occupation and illegal Israeli incursions (and Israel shot down a Russian jet!), Russia goes oopsie and gives up?
Syria is a key to the belt and road initiative of EastAsia. But hey, let's give up and let the chronically fascist West take over.
That's it.... Russia is controlled opposition.
Don't forget "we were always at war with EastAsia"
Oh and poor Eurasia has to suffer for the new cold war between Oceania and EastAsia. Fucked by both sides.
Orwell didn't just predict the future, he was writing about the fucked up imperialist bullshit of his time.
When will we finally realize that empires rarely give a shit about people, like Russia demonstrated with their compliance with the Western big pharma WHO WEF COVID reset...
The roaring success of Putin’s economic reforms are hardly known outside of Russia, in my experience. I’d like to know more about it. I almost wonder if that success isn’t what strikes the greatest fear into western elites, because it’s a repudiation of their model of reality, and of their own rotten, destructive governance.
Spot on in my view - still control most permanent institutions of relevance: "liberal faction overplayed its hand, and now has to retrench for a bit….but its gains are undeniable, with most almost certainly impossible to rollback (think “gay marriage”). These victories are being consolidated despite their electoral loss."
Gay marriage could be rolled back with an effective campaign using the trans lunacy as the weapon. Gay marriage is the reason kids are being mutilated. Everybody refuses to make that link. Most of the LBGT community favors the trans movement and mutilating kids.
Strikes me as an overly positive assessment of Putin's record...yes, he won in Chechnya, but at the price of installing a bandit chieftain like Kadyrov who occasionally has people in the core RF assassinated, maybe not the best or most stable arrangement. Putin probably had good intentions at the start of his reign, but it's undeniable there has been a lot of backsliding on rule of law and a more general return to late Soviet methods in recent years...I know you regarded Navalny as an American puppet, maybe correctly, but still, the way Putin dealt with him was pretty appalling. And there's a glaring omission in your panegyric: Central Asian immigration. Just because the situation in Russia may not be quite as dystopian as in the West, it doesn't mean it's good.
However, I agree that in all probability a great opportunity for constructive relations with Russia was missed, Putin was pragmatic and not really anti-Western in the 2000s. Quite positive towards Germany, surprisingly so for someone with relatives who endured the siege of Leningrad. Very, very foolish of Germans to just reject that good will. Ultimately, I blame the US with its ambitions for global hegemony. So let's hope that when Russia has won in Ukraine (an absolute disaster for Eastern Slavs, should never have happened), it will take its revenge not just on the witless and irrelevant Europeans, but help to humble the Great Satan.
Mass deportations will not happen. Targetted deportations might, such as deporting illegals who are arrested for violent crime. Easy wins that don't actually solve the problem but which sound good on TV might happen too (eg DACA kids get deported, while the cartel murderers who never told the government they were here in the first place slip under the radar)
But, like, to put a concrete number on it, we will not deport more than 1M illegals under Trump, full stop
> de-regulation to permit certain business sectors to “let rip”
This is unlikely. If it does happen, I imagine the only regulations being deregulated are ones that personally enrich Elon Musk
> a peace deal to end the fighting in Ukraine
This probably _will_ happen but I don't think it reflects an achieve of Trump, per se. I think it's more like a "fake because". Everyone involved in the Ukraine war wants it to end because they realize they've lost, but nobody can _say_ that because the fallout for saying that is too great. Imagine what would happen to Zelinskiyy if he just unconditionally surrendered. He'd probably get assassinated. But if he can say "look, I tried my best, but this Trump asshole is forcing us", he can end the war (which he probably wants since he's losing) without getting blamed for it, and murdered.
> a more transactional approach to foreign policy
This is unlikely. This is unlikely because, first, I think the US already has an extremely transactional approach to foreign policy, it's just that most of the transactions are not visible to the public.
But more importantly, for good or for bad, the US is the GAE. And when empires unilaterally reject the responsibility of leading their satrapies, their satrapies rebel. If the US started seriously rolling back foreign policy and committing to isolationism, I think you would very quickly find that it would get out of the US's control, with lots of former allies not going along with the transactions.
However, if by 'transactional' you mean more like "governing the world through mechanisms such as Trump's tariff threats to extort more NATO funding" then I think that is likely to happen. I don't know that I would call that 'transactional', though
> Now that the dust has settled, I think that it is safe to conclude that nothing in recent memory has radicalized so many “normies” as what western governments put their own citizens through during the COVID era. I can’t recall anything that has made so many non-political or politically apathetic people turn very political.
Nothing will happen. There will never be any truth or reconciliation. All of the things that are going to "be revealed" by Trump 47 are things that everyone who cares already know, and everyone who don't know, don't care. Everyone who cares already know these things, but they aren't acting on it, unless "voting for Trump" counts as acting. Nobody's gonna do anything. Nobody's gonna riot. Nobody's gonna lone wolf. Nobody is going to pose any realistically meaningful threat to the people who did the COVID lockdown shit.
So the government's just gonna ignore it, and it's gonna go away. And we will never have closure
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I cannot understand your respect for Putin's Russia other than just generic appreciation for strong man tactics, regardless of ideology. What ideology does Russia promote, other than its own geopolitical goals and sabotage of the West? Not saying that him (or Xi) are without qualities, not at all, but I am saying they are a competitor and never a friend.
US' interests in the ME are similar to Russia's. Neither empire is ideological, they just pursue power. That's fine, but if you're not American or Russian, it's BAD for you. Complicated for smaller countries like yours, yes. But I cannot see how one protection umbrella will be better than the other.
Treat these vast land entities as enemies and competitors that want a weak Europe they can easily control and implement their sphere of influence over. IMO.
PS:l almost forgot - Putin has persecuted the local Russian ethnonationalists and for his regime, I could nearly guarantee that all of us here would be treated as "Nazis" and locked up for our opinions. European identities and nationalism(s) are literally treated as fascism/national socialism by Russia, and seen as targets for destruction.
This cannot ever be supported - again, in my humble estimation.
I don't share the optimism regarding Trump. In my eyes he is a coward. He will go after the easy targets but he has neither the knowledge, the brains or the stamina for a fight against vested interests like what is needed to uncover the truth about covid.
Roffel: Well said and largely correct but think a mischaracterization.
Trump I think has a nose for the bottom line: profit in general and what makes him look good always.
So ya you are right: coward, brain power, stamina, all lacking, but that’s always been his M.O. He doesn’t bother to hide it. He blows past learned ideas with a smirk and sarcastic insult.
His argument is always: ya fancy pants you have a smart plan but you are too weak to get power like me, I did it and only I could do it (loser) and I don’t give a shit about your correctness. He stands tall and proud, then with a pregnant pause and a Cheshire cat smile on his face, he dares you to knock him off his perch.
He will do the transaction that is doable and the fact that you don’t know that’s how it works is proof you are a loser.
He defeated the uniparty, twice. Any and all arguments pale in comparison to his accomplishment - an unauthorized president! - and he rubs your nose in it.
He loves the gloating and we love him for it.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Putin’s problem is not that he is ruthless. It's that he is naive and trusting (as shown by the Minsk accords, which everyone but he knew were a sham from the outset). He doesn't want to make war on the West but to join it and refuses to admit that Russia will always be hated and feared, that the West will be satisfied with nothing but the utter destruction of Russia.
Putin is a decent man. He could not have anticipated the malice of the EU or the reckless mendacity of the Normandy process. Lavrov was right about Russophobia now resembling the classical forms of radical antisemitism: hostility as a totalising form of enmity. Europe is sick. No prospects for any cure that I can see.
I would say that the cruel and slavish nature of the West was long on full display, just that Putin foolishly didn't think they'd do that to us, not us!
N.b. I have long noted that Russians are today's all-purpose scapegoats, the way Jews oce were.
Putin kills journalists and innocent Russians and sends people out to murder using bioweapons and deadly nuclear isotopes. Decent 😂🤪
Do you have any hard evidence for these claims?
I tend to agree with this take. After spending a full half century engaged in perhaps the greatest political and ideological struggle in the history of mankind, why wouldn't the leader of one of the adversaries, a decade after his country collapsed and mere years after it collapsed again from the other direction, think that perhaps the end of history was a grudging handshake with the US and everyone finally recognizing the plain fact that Russia is, while culturally distinct in a litany of ways, also European as fuck?
"what if" history can go both ways.
If Putin had pushed through in 2014/2015 he might have conquered Ukraine with a lot less effort. But it is an open question how well that would have worked. You need a lot of soldiers to keep such a huge country occupied and the West would certainly have made an effort to organize a guerrilla.
In 2015 Russia wasn't ready for the wave of sanctions that would hit it in 2022. In those seven years it also did a lot to modernize its military industry.
Putin is conservative in the sense that he doesn't change things if there is no need for change. It was from that position that he gave the Minsk Agreements a chance. Given the devastating war one can argue that that didn't work well in Ukraine. But at the same time it may have saved Russia from a lot of other trouble.
The Minsk agreements were then fig leaf that allows Nordstream 2 and some renewed trade. Had zero to do with his long-term plans for Ukraine.
The "but insurgency!" is just another retcon.
The one thing all successful insurgencies in recent decades have in common IA a young population. The median age in Yemen is 19. The median age in Ukraine was over 40.
As to how allowing the West to pour weapons into Ukraine since 2014 makes dealing with an insurgency easier is better left unsaid.
Moscow's position, if I understand it properly, was initially quasi-Leninist: keep Ukraine as a buffer between Russia and the West. In 2014/15 Moscow did not anticipate how extreme the new regime in Kiev would be or how committed the West was to its proxies.
Also, Donetsk and Lughansk made no demand to join the Russian Federation till 2022. Their demand was simply autonomy and protection for the Russian language.
Great SCR. However, you left out a few salient facts about Putin. The US had effective control over Russia under Yeltsin. The US had a patron/client relationship with the oligarchs and Washington did everything it could to plunder Russia and wreck it in the process. The results were a form of systemic dysfunction and depraved indifference to human suffering. Putin's entire political project has been to repair the damage of the Yeltsin era and to counter Wsshington's influence within the territories of the former USSR.
Putin's success in getting Russia back on its feet has earned him enormous respect overseas, especially in Asia. Serious political players across the world think highly of him. The contrast with the growing contempt for the Atlanticist political class could hardly be greater.
Europe's inability to work with Putin demonstrates how truly worthless the EU truly is. Brussels was offered opportunities that could have underpinned European prosperity for generations to come. Yet the Euros threw away those opportunities. Xenophobia and Russophobia played a part, as did the servility of the EU to Washington and the defining mediocrity and senselessness of the European political class.
Russia and China are not great as natural allies, in the sense that each has what the other wa is and can best get via cooperation.
Russia and Germany *are* natural allies, and the United States and its UK buttboi have worked hard to prevent this alliance from coming to fruition.
Keeping Germany and Russia apart is integral to Anglo foreign policy. IMHO the two greatest heroes of diplomacy in the 20th century were Walter Rathenau and Gregory Chicherin. Rapallo was the gold standard of geopolitical sanity.
It's amazing to me that Germany has willingly committed national suicide via its energy policy and sanctions on Russia, mainly at the US behest. They didn't even grumble when the US destroyed the Nord Stream 2.
One thing that doesn't get much attention in regards to Russian policy is what I call the "I coulds have beens an oligarchs" crowd. If it hadn't been for Putin, they would have teamed up with their 6th cousin by marriage twice removed to "invest" in Russia, and would be sitting on their megayatch in the Riviera with lingerie models for company. "EXCEPT FOR THAT MEDDLING PUTIN, IT WOULDA BEEN ALL MINES".
There is no possibility of reconciliation between MAGA and the Deep State. Trump's opponents want him dead. They tried to kill him twice during the election campaign. Trump either crushes the criminal networks within the leadership of the intelligence sector or they will destroy him and his family.
Trump can do this easily enough. He can reclassify any number of documents that could expose the DeepnState as a nest of self-interested, utterly corrupt, gangsters. Once Trump's picks have enough to charge villains over Jan 6 etc he will have the opportunity to play off elements of the Deep State against each other. Immunity for whistle lowers etc.
Trump also needs to go after Obama, who orchestrated the Russiagate hoax from the very beginning. There is no safety without cutting off the head of the snake.
Yep, Trump has crossed the Rubicon and he has to keep going, he can’t stand around, saying yeah there I did it. This is war.
Curtis Yarvin agrees with you by the way he says that the number one power of the president is to declassified documents.
Trump may be America's CEO Monarch. Fingers crossed.
I agree, wholeheartedly, and I know that Curtis would as well
One wonders how much access elected politicians and their staff/cabinets really will ever have to any truly damaging documents - probably multiple levels of surreptitious
classification and document destruction
Good point. The Deep State would be prepared for Trump. However, he can still let investigators loose.
I'd also be worried about false paper trails, the fabrication of misleading evidence designed to sabotage trials.
Most Jews want us dead. 80 percent of them voted for Harris and support the political persecution of MAGA. Don't deny the right of people to hate such an evil group who are destroying our system of justice. Tribe is a perfect example of an evil Jew. They hate white Christians. It is time to reclaim the segregation of the past. You can't live in a modern society with these people.
The 80% figure does not incorporate data from New York, California and Pennsylvania. In New York an estimated 40% of the Jewish vote went to Trump.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/jewish-vote-elections-2024
Trump isn't going to do a thing. Based on his ploy with Geatz to get Bondi, I think he is behind the harsh treatment of the J6th people.
Trump will strut around like the narcissistic peacock that he is. All show, no substance.
agreed, hope Trump sees this.
Stewart Lee is also my favourite comedian, but likewise because of his politics, I avoid listening to him when not on stage.
Great issue Nic. Here's some bluesky libs spazzing out over the Thiel essay https://bsky.app/profile/katz.theracket.news/post/3lffpht22ec2d
Hey, it's the guy who found 16 Nazis on Substack!
As I see it the left has taken the position of religion in nowadays society. Being "right" is for them often more important than being logical. It suffers under all the abuses that we associate with sects, including cronyism and greed.
Trump and also many of the new rightwing politicians in Europe are just populists. They hear the complaints about the left and they pretend to answer them. But many of them don't have ideas of their own. They will just avoid the most obvious excesses of the left.
From a distance there is above all continuity between Obama, Trump and Biden. They focus on making America great by exploiting other countries. Their main initiatives are wars and regime change.
In contrast Putin chose to focus on Russia's interests. He had little choice given the poverty and sanctions. Yet the way he has accomplished his job is remarkable. It must have involved a lot of attention to detail.
80 percent of Jews and 90 percent of blacks voted for Harris and a dementia patient. We know who the Left is. Why do you guys keep up this nonsense? Our ancestors were right.
Being "right" doesn't feel as good as being righteous.
Very good. Thanks.
Putin was a part of the collapse. These days, I think the Eastasia administration purposely collapsed it so they can "modernize" their political oligarchs into economic oligarchs. These oligarchs still run Russia, like Herman Gref who is sort of their Elon Musk, pushing digital currency through his bank Sber.
I used to think Russia under Putin was truly anti empire, as they didn't participate in the Iraq war. However, I was disappointed that they didn't call out the huge bullshit narrative around 911, the reason that gave the west carte blanche to terrorize the middle east.
I later thought that perhaps they would nail the west as many still think, Russia playing 5d chess.
But I grew disappointed as Russia did little to nothing to stop Libya being turned into a slave state.
And then COVID hit.
Russia had regional mandates (and an Astra Zeneca like shot), Putin and others became obsessed with PCR testing and masks. WTF, they fell for the Western COVID scam?!?
2 possibilities:
-so stupid they didn't realize the "cure"was worth than the "disease"
-they know it's bullshit and used it to screw their own people
And then Syria happened....
After years of Russia helping their ally but not challenging the illegal US occupation and illegal Israeli incursions (and Israel shot down a Russian jet!), Russia goes oopsie and gives up?
Syria is a key to the belt and road initiative of EastAsia. But hey, let's give up and let the chronically fascist West take over.
That's it.... Russia is controlled opposition.
Don't forget "we were always at war with EastAsia"
Oh and poor Eurasia has to suffer for the new cold war between Oceania and EastAsia. Fucked by both sides.
Orwell didn't just predict the future, he was writing about the fucked up imperialist bullshit of his time.
When will we finally realize that empires rarely give a shit about people, like Russia demonstrated with their compliance with the Western big pharma WHO WEF COVID reset...
The roaring success of Putin’s economic reforms are hardly known outside of Russia, in my experience. I’d like to know more about it. I almost wonder if that success isn’t what strikes the greatest fear into western elites, because it’s a repudiation of their model of reality, and of their own rotten, destructive governance.
Isreal doesn't want a strong Russia. It is the reason the US foreign policy after the cold war was so screwed up.
Spot on in my view - still control most permanent institutions of relevance: "liberal faction overplayed its hand, and now has to retrench for a bit….but its gains are undeniable, with most almost certainly impossible to rollback (think “gay marriage”). These victories are being consolidated despite their electoral loss."
Gay marriage could be rolled back with an effective campaign using the trans lunacy as the weapon. Gay marriage is the reason kids are being mutilated. Everybody refuses to make that link. Most of the LBGT community favors the trans movement and mutilating kids.
Strikes me as an overly positive assessment of Putin's record...yes, he won in Chechnya, but at the price of installing a bandit chieftain like Kadyrov who occasionally has people in the core RF assassinated, maybe not the best or most stable arrangement. Putin probably had good intentions at the start of his reign, but it's undeniable there has been a lot of backsliding on rule of law and a more general return to late Soviet methods in recent years...I know you regarded Navalny as an American puppet, maybe correctly, but still, the way Putin dealt with him was pretty appalling. And there's a glaring omission in your panegyric: Central Asian immigration. Just because the situation in Russia may not be quite as dystopian as in the West, it doesn't mean it's good.
However, I agree that in all probability a great opportunity for constructive relations with Russia was missed, Putin was pragmatic and not really anti-Western in the 2000s. Quite positive towards Germany, surprisingly so for someone with relatives who endured the siege of Leningrad. Very, very foolish of Germans to just reject that good will. Ultimately, I blame the US with its ambitions for global hegemony. So let's hope that when Russia has won in Ukraine (an absolute disaster for Eastern Slavs, should never have happened), it will take its revenge not just on the witless and irrelevant Europeans, but help to humble the Great Satan.
Locking in some predictions
> immigration reform/mass deportation of illegals
Mass deportations will not happen. Targetted deportations might, such as deporting illegals who are arrested for violent crime. Easy wins that don't actually solve the problem but which sound good on TV might happen too (eg DACA kids get deported, while the cartel murderers who never told the government they were here in the first place slip under the radar)
But, like, to put a concrete number on it, we will not deport more than 1M illegals under Trump, full stop
> de-regulation to permit certain business sectors to “let rip”
This is unlikely. If it does happen, I imagine the only regulations being deregulated are ones that personally enrich Elon Musk
> a peace deal to end the fighting in Ukraine
This probably _will_ happen but I don't think it reflects an achieve of Trump, per se. I think it's more like a "fake because". Everyone involved in the Ukraine war wants it to end because they realize they've lost, but nobody can _say_ that because the fallout for saying that is too great. Imagine what would happen to Zelinskiyy if he just unconditionally surrendered. He'd probably get assassinated. But if he can say "look, I tried my best, but this Trump asshole is forcing us", he can end the war (which he probably wants since he's losing) without getting blamed for it, and murdered.
> a more transactional approach to foreign policy
This is unlikely. This is unlikely because, first, I think the US already has an extremely transactional approach to foreign policy, it's just that most of the transactions are not visible to the public.
But more importantly, for good or for bad, the US is the GAE. And when empires unilaterally reject the responsibility of leading their satrapies, their satrapies rebel. If the US started seriously rolling back foreign policy and committing to isolationism, I think you would very quickly find that it would get out of the US's control, with lots of former allies not going along with the transactions.
However, if by 'transactional' you mean more like "governing the world through mechanisms such as Trump's tariff threats to extort more NATO funding" then I think that is likely to happen. I don't know that I would call that 'transactional', though
> Now that the dust has settled, I think that it is safe to conclude that nothing in recent memory has radicalized so many “normies” as what western governments put their own citizens through during the COVID era. I can’t recall anything that has made so many non-political or politically apathetic people turn very political.
Nothing will happen. There will never be any truth or reconciliation. All of the things that are going to "be revealed" by Trump 47 are things that everyone who cares already know, and everyone who don't know, don't care. Everyone who cares already know these things, but they aren't acting on it, unless "voting for Trump" counts as acting. Nobody's gonna do anything. Nobody's gonna riot. Nobody's gonna lone wolf. Nobody is going to pose any realistically meaningful threat to the people who did the COVID lockdown shit.
So the government's just gonna ignore it, and it's gonna go away. And we will never have closure