Prolonging An Unnecessary (But Inevitable) War in Ukraine, Rufo vs. Yarvin, The Heroes of Undersea Cable Repair, North African Angst in France, Getting Marina Abramovic
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"The net effect of this new aid package for Ukraine will be to prolong the war ravaging that country, and to delay the also inevitable defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield. $61 billion can buy a lot of weaponry, but it cannot plug manpower holes that even the new conscription law that the Ukrainian government passed recently will attempt to do."
Once Ukraine runs low on warm live bodies, whether by press-ganging those in the country or deporting refugees of military age, NATO will openly and directly intervene.
Great issue Nic. The exhilaration over your Turbo America thesis being further proven must've put you in a good mood.
A cousin of mine was a nurse in the Twin Cities where most patients were either Scandinavian-Americans or Somali immigrants. It was a schizophrenic job, because the Scandis were Stoic--"my leg is sore" meant a 16-inch festering gash across their calf--while the Somalis seemed to overdramatize every symptom to the max.
Speaking of Fanon I recently reopened "The Wretched of the Earth" which had my marginalia from 20+ years back. Found myself not caring. The opening chapter, "Concerning Violence," is 40-50 pages that can be summarized as "We hate the colonists and want to kill them."
Wow! A great SCR. The Yarvin/Rufo dialogue is a gem...very satisfying indeed. After reading it I am in two minds.
On balance, I'd agree with Yarvin about the utter futility of conservatism but I am also convinced of the inherent value of Rufonian activism. At a granular level we need to actively realise or defend what we believe in. Grassroots activism makes a difference....mass mobilisation even more so.
But I do not expect that the Right is going to ever turn things aroundpolitically or socially. The anomie, atomisation and social decay wrought by the regime has a long way to go. Most likely the future will be fragmented: conservative lifestyle options (stable families, economic security, a degree of protection from the grossest aspects of popular culture) will be available for the privileged but the culture and condition of the helots will embody the legacy of the dexual revolution, the counter culture and mass entertainment.
Yarvin is an interesting character. On the one hand, I tend to agree with his diagnosis of the problems, but I think his solution is a ridiculous fantasy. For better or worse, at the end of the day I’m probably in the Rufo camp, even if it’s doomed to failure.
Great post, especially the encounter between Yarvin & Rufo. And thanks for the bit on the cable repair guys.
I’m not sure there is a clear understanding, especially in light of the on-going negotiations, re the what & why of the 1st (6) months of the “SMO”. To me, a lot of it, in retrospect, doesn’t make sense (ie. why didn’t the Russians just blitzkrieg Kiev?).
Those cables seem ripe for sabotage, I imagine that more than a few groups have considered something.
Regarding the "pain" experienced by migrants to France, I tend to buy it - psychological stress can manifest in bizarre ways, and whatever you may think about the migrant situation it's probably fair to say that for many migration is a stressful experience. I doubt Fanon's conclusion that it's specifically caused by "colonialism", although certain cultures may well be more susceptible to their stress manifesting in this particular way.
the fanon bit reminds me of my pinay stepmother, whose stress and anxiety manifests as periodic undefinable medical emergencies that resolve as soon as she's able to communicate her distress with a medical professional. my impression is that some non-westerners use the language and rituals of illness to describe and deal with emotional and psychological stresses, rather than the language of psychology at a remove from the first person, which more or less what he is saying i think.
Re the Yarvin/Rufo dialogue: democracy is built to have a balance between different powers. That deliberately makes it hard to make big changes. Normally that is ok: stability is an important good.
However, when things grow dysfunctional you want someone who cuts through the bureaucratic mess and imposes a new better order. A king-like figure. Modi is fulfilling that role at the moment in India. He has eliminated a lot of bureaucratic red tape. In Europe Napoleon and to a much lesser extent Hitler played a similar role.
Obviously such figures have their downsides too. So I don't think it is good to have them always. Also - when you look at absolute kingdoms in history it is obvious that most of those kings were just mediocre. At most one in five makes meaningful changes. The rest are just caretakers - just like most modern democratic leaders. They do what the situation seems to require but little more.
Given the sense that the US is stuck it is no coincidence that someone like Trump appears. Even in his first term - when he faced a lot of obstruction - he changed the course of the country in some ways (for example regarding China and industrial policy).
The last paragraph of that Ukraine article is wrong:
- There was no "intense pressure" on Yanukovych" not to sign an agreement with the EU in 2013. Putin just showed him the fine points of the treaty and explained how that would work out: the Ukrainian industry would be destroyed by more competitive European colleagues while the treaty put restrictions on Ukrainian exports in areas where it was competitive, like grain and chicken. After that he made Yanukovych a better offer.
- already on the eve of the war Putin made it clear that he was open to Ukrainian EU membership. In the months before the war he sounded increasingly desperate to avoid an Ukrainian NATO membership at any price.
I found this stress on security guarantees puzzling. What Russia wanted was a "Finlandization" of Ukraine. Finland had no guarantees in that time. It looks like the Zelensky regime had read too much NATO propaganda.
The issue with Yarvinism (as I see it with my tiny brain) is we're basically already in that system. The first half of "concentration of power in a tiny circle answerable to an absolutist monarch" is roughly where we are at via court system in Canada, and the EU as far as I can tell (note: tiny brain). Unfortunately, it's exactly as "fake and gey" as you'd expect.
You can run, but you can't hide - you have to fight somewhere or you can surrender, or you can run for now and defer that choice to later. Rufoism - fight now, publicly - seems to be the only chance-of-winning non-surrender option.
The Common sense solution to Ukraine came during a midterm election and the Swag $ was too much to say yes to peace.
Yesterday the bill for $61B passed, I have read mostly to (necessarily) rebuild our antiquated and far too small munitions base - and yes it is indeed far too small. So Ukraine will get $14B to keep the lights on through November elections.
I’m less than pleased at all this, if the acid dripping from my words isn’t obvious.
I’ll console myself that we can never have enough ammo.
Hit the like button at the top or bottom of this page to like this entry. Use the share and/or re-stack buttons to share this across social media. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so.
And please don't forget to subscribe if you haven't done so already!
"The net effect of this new aid package for Ukraine will be to prolong the war ravaging that country, and to delay the also inevitable defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield. $61 billion can buy a lot of weaponry, but it cannot plug manpower holes that even the new conscription law that the Ukrainian government passed recently will attempt to do."
Once Ukraine runs low on warm live bodies, whether by press-ganging those in the country or deporting refugees of military age, NATO will openly and directly intervene.
Great issue Nic. The exhilaration over your Turbo America thesis being further proven must've put you in a good mood.
A cousin of mine was a nurse in the Twin Cities where most patients were either Scandinavian-Americans or Somali immigrants. It was a schizophrenic job, because the Scandis were Stoic--"my leg is sore" meant a 16-inch festering gash across their calf--while the Somalis seemed to overdramatize every symptom to the max.
Speaking of Fanon I recently reopened "The Wretched of the Earth" which had my marginalia from 20+ years back. Found myself not caring. The opening chapter, "Concerning Violence," is 40-50 pages that can be summarized as "We hate the colonists and want to kill them."
Wow! A great SCR. The Yarvin/Rufo dialogue is a gem...very satisfying indeed. After reading it I am in two minds.
On balance, I'd agree with Yarvin about the utter futility of conservatism but I am also convinced of the inherent value of Rufonian activism. At a granular level we need to actively realise or defend what we believe in. Grassroots activism makes a difference....mass mobilisation even more so.
But I do not expect that the Right is going to ever turn things aroundpolitically or socially. The anomie, atomisation and social decay wrought by the regime has a long way to go. Most likely the future will be fragmented: conservative lifestyle options (stable families, economic security, a degree of protection from the grossest aspects of popular culture) will be available for the privileged but the culture and condition of the helots will embody the legacy of the dexual revolution, the counter culture and mass entertainment.
Yarvin is an interesting character. On the one hand, I tend to agree with his diagnosis of the problems, but I think his solution is a ridiculous fantasy. For better or worse, at the end of the day I’m probably in the Rufo camp, even if it’s doomed to failure.
Curtis Yarvin: we must lockdown harder but this time absolutely everyone must stay at home and have their necessities delivered.
Figures that a monarchist regards the help as not human beings in the strict sense.
Great post, especially the encounter between Yarvin & Rufo. And thanks for the bit on the cable repair guys.
I’m not sure there is a clear understanding, especially in light of the on-going negotiations, re the what & why of the 1st (6) months of the “SMO”. To me, a lot of it, in retrospect, doesn’t make sense (ie. why didn’t the Russians just blitzkrieg Kiev?).
See sep.stanford.edu/sep/jon/putin.html
Those cables seem ripe for sabotage, I imagine that more than a few groups have considered something.
Regarding the "pain" experienced by migrants to France, I tend to buy it - psychological stress can manifest in bizarre ways, and whatever you may think about the migrant situation it's probably fair to say that for many migration is a stressful experience. I doubt Fanon's conclusion that it's specifically caused by "colonialism", although certain cultures may well be more susceptible to their stress manifesting in this particular way.
the fanon bit reminds me of my pinay stepmother, whose stress and anxiety manifests as periodic undefinable medical emergencies that resolve as soon as she's able to communicate her distress with a medical professional. my impression is that some non-westerners use the language and rituals of illness to describe and deal with emotional and psychological stresses, rather than the language of psychology at a remove from the first person, which more or less what he is saying i think.
Being 86, I haven’t learned how to bring this to widespread attention. Jon.claerbout@gmail.com
Re the Yarvin/Rufo dialogue: democracy is built to have a balance between different powers. That deliberately makes it hard to make big changes. Normally that is ok: stability is an important good.
However, when things grow dysfunctional you want someone who cuts through the bureaucratic mess and imposes a new better order. A king-like figure. Modi is fulfilling that role at the moment in India. He has eliminated a lot of bureaucratic red tape. In Europe Napoleon and to a much lesser extent Hitler played a similar role.
Obviously such figures have their downsides too. So I don't think it is good to have them always. Also - when you look at absolute kingdoms in history it is obvious that most of those kings were just mediocre. At most one in five makes meaningful changes. The rest are just caretakers - just like most modern democratic leaders. They do what the situation seems to require but little more.
Given the sense that the US is stuck it is no coincidence that someone like Trump appears. Even in his first term - when he faced a lot of obstruction - he changed the course of the country in some ways (for example regarding China and industrial policy).
The last paragraph of that Ukraine article is wrong:
- There was no "intense pressure" on Yanukovych" not to sign an agreement with the EU in 2013. Putin just showed him the fine points of the treaty and explained how that would work out: the Ukrainian industry would be destroyed by more competitive European colleagues while the treaty put restrictions on Ukrainian exports in areas where it was competitive, like grain and chicken. After that he made Yanukovych a better offer.
- already on the eve of the war Putin made it clear that he was open to Ukrainian EU membership. In the months before the war he sounded increasingly desperate to avoid an Ukrainian NATO membership at any price.
I found this stress on security guarantees puzzling. What Russia wanted was a "Finlandization" of Ukraine. Finland had no guarantees in that time. It looks like the Zelensky regime had read too much NATO propaganda.
Did anyone actually read up on that Samuels v. Samuels debate? Thoughts? Any avid homework doers out there?
The issue with Yarvinism (as I see it with my tiny brain) is we're basically already in that system. The first half of "concentration of power in a tiny circle answerable to an absolutist monarch" is roughly where we are at via court system in Canada, and the EU as far as I can tell (note: tiny brain). Unfortunately, it's exactly as "fake and gey" as you'd expect.
You can run, but you can't hide - you have to fight somewhere or you can surrender, or you can run for now and defer that choice to later. Rufoism - fight now, publicly - seems to be the only chance-of-winning non-surrender option.
The Common sense solution to Ukraine came during a midterm election and the Swag $ was too much to say yes to peace.
Yesterday the bill for $61B passed, I have read mostly to (necessarily) rebuild our antiquated and far too small munitions base - and yes it is indeed far too small. So Ukraine will get $14B to keep the lights on through November elections.
I’m less than pleased at all this, if the acid dripping from my words isn’t obvious.
I’ll console myself that we can never have enough ammo.