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I will now turn to finishing off the long entry on the War in Ukraine that I promised you earlier this week.

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If Saudi royals prefer Israel to Hamas (meaning: If Saudi royals are sane) then this would be a good time for them step up to the plate and make their position clear.

As the (putative?) leaders of the Arab world, they could be helpful in bringing some semblance of order (and even "peace") to the Middle East. Seldom is an isolated and insignificant (even if filthy rich) country given this opportunity to do something benefciial for ALL concerned.

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Dec 9, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo

Ahh....so the like really are important. I always wondered why writers requested them, but wasn't sure why.

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Dec 9, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo

Good piece. Not sure about the German take, but very good overview of the Mideast situation- thanks!

Burma has been a mess for a long time and the government really has never had control over the border regions (neither up North nor to the east along the Thai border). Now the country is more strategic for China (as your note covers) which is probably not good news for the people.

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Dec 9, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo

I don’t use social media much but I do know there was a lot of triumphalism among Muslims and leftists immediately following the Hamas attack. Has it been followed by doomerism now?

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I understand the Myanmar conflict completely. #sarcasm Good God, now THAT’s a mess.

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Dec 9, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo

Understandable that the Junta is exasperated with all of those Karens bothering them 😂

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1. I wonder how much a more permanent defeat of the Gazan Palestinians - like, say, an expulsion from Gaza itself - would rock the Middle Eastern political landscape. It cannot be overlooked that the current Iranian regime derives much of its (heavily waning) legitimacy from being perceived as "defenders of the Palestinians from the evil Zionists". If Gaza falls, this claim would be irreversibly damaged.

2. The Burmese Civil War* might have the interest of China, but it would certainly have the interest of India as well, for India is right next to Burma, and whatever goes on in Burma might spill over to India as well.

*I use "Burma" interchangeably with "Myanmar", for I don't much care for "endonym petty nationalism" (e.g. "Turkey to Türkiye", "India to Bharat", etc).

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Dec 9, 2023·edited Dec 9, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo

1. Any pretext will do for Germany to ban the AfD. The real reason cannot be stated, and that is opposition to American hegemony in general and thr war on Russia in particular.

2. The Dutch merely additionally confirmed what everyone already knew.

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Dec 9, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo

By 'contained', do you mean Gazans remaining in Gaza?

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Dec 10, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo

Thanks!

too many conflicts on its plate to manage --> too many conflicts on its plate

[comment: to manage is redundant, the metaphor includes it]

Because it was bullshit, of course.

[Comment: another sentence about what you mean would be helpful here]

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Dec 10, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo

What stands out so much about Bellingcat is that the faces of the org are so far left economically and culturally. In my view that tells us quite a bit about the state of the western elites and where their sympathies are increasingly leaning, though some could argue either Bellingcat is lying about that or the intel community is using them to try to make leftists more interventionist

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So gimme a double Reichsbuerger with cheese and a large freedom fries.

(sorry I couldn't help myself)

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Rundell's piece was highly evasive. He left out the fact that the Biden Administration supports the Muslim Brotherhood within Sa'udi Arabia itself.

The Kashoggi affair indicated that Washington sought regime change in Riyadh. Either the new relationships between Riyadh and both Moscow and Beijing alarmed the US or because influential networks with the US national security sector seek personal benefits from installing their own cronies within the al-Sa'ud family itself.

American state-building has failed in Afghanistan and Iraq. It has failed on the West Bank and Gaza too. The Sa'udis understand that Israel offered the Palestinians a state, with a capitol in East Jerusalem and sovereignty over the Haram al-Sharif (above ground, the subterranean tunnels and the Wailing Wall were to be retained by Israel). They are not going to waste resources, still less risk a war for the sake of the Palestinian refugees for whom this is not enough.

The present war touches on the character of TurboAmerica itself. If the US seeks stability in Western Asia it will support the destruction of Hamas. If the US is applying a strategy of tension (either to constrain the Israelis or to maintain leverage against other regional or extra-regional players) they will find a way to do this.

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Recommended reading on the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire?

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