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What I truly look forward to is being able to run the models entirely locally so that it can be entirely trained on my data and customized to me. That will be a helpful tool.
American AI applications are severely limited anyway due to DEI having been baked into their coding. A few months ago, I asked ChatGPT to write a 1000 article about the history of the Olympics. What it gave me was a treatise about LGBTQ rights. Maybe the Chinese or the Russians will make an AI programme that sort of works as advertised.
FWIW, Google's "Generative AI" most often provides me with accurate, comprehensive synopses of info on the questions I pose. Nothing political or similar -- just ordinary, common-day things/subjects. I value that, and use the answers as jumping-off points for further inquiries.
It (Google) is the only one I use. I'm probably representative of older Americans (I'm 72, soon 73) -- we know what we know, but sometimes we're unsure if our memories are correct (so we ask/verify) and/or up-to-date (so we ask/verify). Google's "Generative AI" (and similar) take the "ego" out of "info" (getting old[er] is a great "humbler").
As a software engineer working in AI, I am still bullish on AI. I understand the criticisms of the hype train, and perhaps those are valid and the nerds are just too close to the tech to be clearpilled about it (also the compensation goes way up if you work in AI).
At minimum, the AI lets software engineers become more effective. I am a backend engineer with no front-end JS experience, but with AI now I don't need to work with a front-end developer. The code completion gets you 90% of the way there, and the models are going to get better.
If Software Engineering becomes easier, combined with a removal of the oppressive Biden regulatory posture towards Tech, then I predict that we some significant advances in adjacent fields. For example, using Transformer models (which predict the next symbol in a sequence), to predict the uses of certain molecular structures (in Genomics, Pharma, Chemical Engineering, Materials Science, etc).
All that to say, AI doesn't have to become as smart as humans in order to improve humanity.
For the better really. We got something way more efficient than Google search or Wikipedia. It could pause here indefinitely for all I care. We have more than enough disruption as it is.
If any ceasefire takes place it will happen late next year, somewhere around August I'ld guess, after the next round of offensives comes to an end. There's still a big divide between the concessions Western foreign policy officials have said they are willing to make and Russian demands, so a long round of negotiations will have to take place before any deal is reached.
The whole plan with Syria is to have it flame up all the time, so I wouldn't bet on the opposite.
Israel already attacked South Lebanon again, so I guess that's that.
2 Vivek Ramanswamy and Elon Musk will ensure that the second Trump administration will be much worse than a Romney or Bush administration. Its over before it even began. Token deportations of illegal migrants followed by record number of legal migrants. The standard Canada and UK playbook.
Probably will be some form of large scale deportation next year in the US. We'll see if Trump has the stomach for a fight with big business over it.
Woke is not going away, and anyone who says otherwise is in a bubble. They might tamp it down a notch and make it less visible in media, think Yellowstone and not The Acolyte, but the left's raison d'être is championing "oppressed"(weirdos, minorities) groups against the "oppressor"(normal Americans). The left can not help but be "woke". It would take an Obama-type figure, a persuasive member of an "oppressed" group, to truly purge it.
'Woke' is now so deeply ingrained into America's institutions, that walking it back is practically impossible. It's America's operating system. The Trump administration may succeed in getting some of it re-branded and more subtly hidden, but they can never remove it.
Syria: My Chrysler car salesman, Ghazwan, I’ve known him for a year but we really get along. He is Alawite, I asked if his parents were OK back in Damascus, he burst into tears. A grown man, it was intense, it shook me up. So……
Only possible outcome ending Ukraine war is victory for one side, probably Russia. Do not believe that Ukraine can win unless NATO goes in on the ground. Western people are not used to body bags, in smaller families.
Trump must immediately appoint a special counsel to establish who made the decisions and executive orders for a senile buffoon. This is ten times more serious than Watergate. What did Pelosi, Schumer and Obama know?
Syria was given away, to jihadis, to protect Zionism. Remember, ISIS never hit the USA or Israel, it's financiers.
The EU will stumble from crisis to crisis losing credibility with every turn. Dead man walking.
Nobody will ask NATO populaces what they want. Trump will only escalate the war on Russia, and once Trump starts down that road, he won't be able to reverse course without being accused of betrayal.
Syria will be turned into a failed state. This is entirely intentional on the part of Israel and its American thug. Those who doubt should look at Iraq and Libya.
Trump will make no fundamental changes domestically (forget cosmetics and windowdressing) and probably couldn't, even if he wanted to. Trump remains weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
TL:DR, 2025 will see the acceleration of America's transition to a full-fledged empire.
My guess is that Turbo America will be even more turbo everywhere in the world except for China, where they are trying but are hitting a brick wall - the Great Wall. I know you like to shit on those Multipolarity guys (that Irish fellow is indeed annoying) but their episode with Steve Hsu about Chinese tech was quite good. Maybe the world will be bissexual, sorry, bipolar....
The US could have really fucked China in the ass back in late 90s and 2000s: all these tech embargoes and sanctions would have worked, trade war would have worked, the chicomms would now be fighting an unwinnable war against Uyghur fanatics in the mountains and deserts of Xinjiang. Your mention of that on the latest SCR was spot on! A chinese friend of mine travelled over there recently and said there are amazing roads, trains, bridges and crazy infrastructure being built everywhere in Xinjiang, also said 10 years ago there was absolutely nothing, it was Afghanistan level shithole. Imagine the quagmire if the Americans decided to spread democracy, human rights and institutions to East Turkestan in the year 2000... The chinks really played their hands really fucking well...
Will a peace deal be reached regarding the War in Ukraine and will it stick?
Yes, Russia will want to be in contact with Europeans to lure them back to the juicy hydrocarbons as their decline escalates, and a Trump presidency is the best shot Ruskies have of renormalization, against the wishes of certain USian interests.
Can Syria manage to hold it together next year and not blow up again?
Doubt they're holding together anything but political theatre as we speak.
Will Israel take another run at Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon?
Probably, Israel is racking up a kill streak and aren't likely to stop until they're stopped. Though I don't know when elections are held, that could effect things. Don't see Trump pumping the brakes, since he can get so much out of a bargain.
What are the odds that China begins in 2025 to make moves on Taiwan?
Too much depends on Xi to say anything meaningful. China is a mad hive of mandarins commanded by an isolated mad emperor, anything could happen.
US Politics (not a yank)
Will large-scale deportations of illegal migrants take place next year?
If the criminal element counts as large scale, probably. If it really picks up steam I imagine it'll take into 2026 to get momentum, break resistance.
Will there be a deep state counterattack on the White House?
The deep state is like the CCP, any given party official might do something insane for clout. Will this get the ball rolling, or be crushed? No idea.
Has Wokeness peaked? Or is it just shoring up gains?
Wokeness will undergo another adaptive transformation, as woke grew from a defeated class based strategy. The managerial revolution will continue till the last mandarin is sacked.
Science
Will AI make a significant breakthrough in 2025?
I think there's a massive backlog of potential in configuring existing technology in novel ways, and these projects are more likely to develop now that the frontiers are in the hands of large corporations. If significant breakthrough means a phase change in raw power, I'm not qualified to say.
Is next year the year that Climate Change takes centre stage as a global issue?
The winds seem to be blowing in the opposite direction, inasmuch as the climate change mantra is largely a cover for deindustrialization and wealth transfer to the third world. People are returning to the obvious necessity of nuclear power, which would retrench enormous first world prosperity as against the third world which can't be trusted with it. More, the arguments for full renewables have empirically failed, and we're past the point of ignoring it. Electric cars aren't cool anymore.
Entertainment
What entertainment are you looking forward to enoying? (Nothing to do with predictions, obviously).
This and another substacks, number one Carribbean sexy show, Landshark tweets. The wider media world is dead to me.
Personal
Will you succeed with respect to your New Years Resolutions?
I'm starting a course leading into a career in the new year. I will go full blitzkrieg. By God's grace I will succeed.
Thanks for this - was really good fodder for long family new year’s drive.
We added a sub question to AI, which was if the answer is yes, will that happen in the US or elsewhere.
(Which then brought in the fun question of if yes, and it’s medical related breakthrough(s), and it’s in China, can they AI-longevity hack their way out of their demographic crisis).
Have thoughts on all but as for AI it seems we’ve plateaued for a while. Had dinner with a very in-the-know guy a couple weeks ago — he said we won’t see anything approaching singularity for at least another decade. It seems the problem is that all written data in existence has already been input into AI models to no avail. They’re now having to create synthetic data which will take much longer
Personal resolution : be more positive. With the answers below, I doubt I'll keep it.
1. Will a peace deal be reached regarding the War in Ukraine and will it stick? No, this will be fought to the bloody end. As long as this keeps going, the US gets to keep bleeding Russia, the Europeans are kept in thrall and Ukraine becomes an emptier and emptier "prize".
2. Can Syria manage to hold it together next year and not blow up again? The scariest would be another rapefugee crisis destabilizing Europe further. If the Kurds can be brought to reason or vanquished and the resources of the country re-federalized quickly, the dumpster fire might be put out. We just won't hear about it as much because Al-Jolani is our guy.
3. Will Israel take another run at Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon? Yes, kick them when they're down and finish the job. After that, short-term, no opponents immediately on their borders remain. 80% chance they smother them into insignificance.
4. What are the odds that China begins in 2025 to make moves on Taiwan? Entirely depends on US moves. Why invade when you can blockade and blow up TSMC factories, instantly wiping trillions in Apple, Intel, AMD and Nvidia stock value and potentially crippling them permanently? Out of all the hotspots in the world, it's both the scariest one and the easiest one to make a deal benefiting everyone but the Taiwanese.
5. Will large-scale deportations of illegal migrants take place next year? I'm sure this is wishful thinking, but yes. A sharp reduction in H1Bs, a few hundred thousand Modelo drinkers deported and deterring more from pouring in would be a great start. Karlin, Banania and other EHC proponents move to India out of spite and then move back in silent disgust a few months later.
6. Will there be a deep state counterattack on the White House? No, the hydra simply adapts and bides its time. Maybe around the midterms.
7. Has Wokeness peaked? Or is it just shoring up gains? Peaked. Rolling back its disastrous influence will be very difficult.
8. Will AI make a significant breakthrough in 2025? It keeps improving and finds more use cases, just enough to tread water. Still on the fence on this one. Professionally it's been a huge productivity booster and I use it more and more, and using tools like Perplexity for search instead of useless add-ridden "search engines" enshitified by Pajeet management is a breath of fresh air. Like Eric Hoel writes, AGI is a pipe dream : we don't even understand human consciousness. Most likely outcome mid-term is China wins.
9. Is next year the year that Climate Change takes centre stage as a global issue? No. That ship has sailed. Emitting more carbon VS changing our lifestyles = more carbon. AC FTW!
I agree it's themost likely lever used for that purpose next. However, with crises everywhere and the example of countries with less or intermittent energy plunging into crisis I think it's unlikely to be able to gain much traction. *Crosses fingers*
They're already trying this in Britain and it's just causing more resentment which, in turn, is fuelling more populism. More likely they'll go for the 'Romania' options, i.e., cancelling elections, rigging results, lawfare and setting the cops on anyone who protests about it.
We’re most likely at the boot stomping on face, forever, phase of western history. Some jurisdictions might stomp hard or harder and have finer or coarser threads on the sole of said boot, so location arbitrage becomes more important than ever.
1. No. The West will choke on Putin's terms and Putin will reject Trump's terms. The war will grind on to its grim, bloody military conclusion.
2. Al-Jolani is, indeed, our guy but can he hold together this unstable coalition? If he can't then chaos ensues. The truly worrying thing is that there are 50,000 ISIS fighters currently held in Kurdish prisons. If they are sprung then they will be heading to a Christmas market near you soon after.
3. A serious possibility. The Israelis will not want to give Hezbollah time and space to regroup and rearm. They may occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.
4. China doesn't need to do anything quite so dramatic. They just need to bide their time, develop their military and watch America's decline.
5. No. They will probably kick out a few German students who overstay their visas by 5 minutes, make a big fuss about in the media and then return to business as usual.
6. For sure and constantly, though it will be low-key and less obvious.
7. Yes but I agree that removing it from its perch at the summit will be nigh-on impossible.
8. American AI? No. It's already reached peak LGBTQ.
9. It's taken centre stage every year for the last decade but probably attended this year by more coercion and punishments.
Hit the like button at the top or bottom of the page to like this entry. Use the share and/or re-stack buttons to share this across social media. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so.
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I think "AI" has largely plateaued. Mainly because we never accomplished true AI and just made really good chatbots, chatbots that have now reached their functional limits chiefly due to the limits of training data. I found this article to be informative: https://open.substack.com/pub/erikhoel/p/ai-progress-has-plateaued-at-gpt?r=k9m2x&utm_medium=ios
What I truly look forward to is being able to run the models entirely locally so that it can be entirely trained on my data and customized to me. That will be a helpful tool.
Scott Locklin agrees with your criticism that they are largely just chatbots.
American AI applications are severely limited anyway due to DEI having been baked into their coding. A few months ago, I asked ChatGPT to write a 1000 article about the history of the Olympics. What it gave me was a treatise about LGBTQ rights. Maybe the Chinese or the Russians will make an AI programme that sort of works as advertised.
FWIW, Google's "Generative AI" most often provides me with accurate, comprehensive synopses of info on the questions I pose. Nothing political or similar -- just ordinary, common-day things/subjects. I value that, and use the answers as jumping-off points for further inquiries.
Are you using that one more than any others?
It (Google) is the only one I use. I'm probably representative of older Americans (I'm 72, soon 73) -- we know what we know, but sometimes we're unsure if our memories are correct (so we ask/verify) and/or up-to-date (so we ask/verify). Google's "Generative AI" (and similar) take the "ego" out of "info" (getting old[er] is a great "humbler").
May you live another 72 years
As a software engineer working in AI, I am still bullish on AI. I understand the criticisms of the hype train, and perhaps those are valid and the nerds are just too close to the tech to be clearpilled about it (also the compensation goes way up if you work in AI).
At minimum, the AI lets software engineers become more effective. I am a backend engineer with no front-end JS experience, but with AI now I don't need to work with a front-end developer. The code completion gets you 90% of the way there, and the models are going to get better.
If Software Engineering becomes easier, combined with a removal of the oppressive Biden regulatory posture towards Tech, then I predict that we some significant advances in adjacent fields. For example, using Transformer models (which predict the next symbol in a sequence), to predict the uses of certain molecular structures (in Genomics, Pharma, Chemical Engineering, Materials Science, etc).
All that to say, AI doesn't have to become as smart as humans in order to improve humanity.
For the better really. We got something way more efficient than Google search or Wikipedia. It could pause here indefinitely for all I care. We have more than enough disruption as it is.
If any ceasefire takes place it will happen late next year, somewhere around August I'ld guess, after the next round of offensives comes to an end. There's still a big divide between the concessions Western foreign policy officials have said they are willing to make and Russian demands, so a long round of negotiations will have to take place before any deal is reached.
The whole plan with Syria is to have it flame up all the time, so I wouldn't bet on the opposite.
Israel already attacked South Lebanon again, so I guess that's that.
(No Spanish civil war edging this time, eh?)
Once I post part 2 of this two-parter I will post Spanish Civil War series. I fly back to Europe this week.
US Politics
2 Vivek Ramanswamy and Elon Musk will ensure that the second Trump administration will be much worse than a Romney or Bush administration. Its over before it even began. Token deportations of illegal migrants followed by record number of legal migrants. The standard Canada and UK playbook.
I predict that the Trump inauguration will look something like this - https://youtu.be/Pm2uQDvjAK0?si=H4Hu6MV-r_RVIADi
lol
lol
lol
that would be rad!
Probably will be some form of large scale deportation next year in the US. We'll see if Trump has the stomach for a fight with big business over it.
Woke is not going away, and anyone who says otherwise is in a bubble. They might tamp it down a notch and make it less visible in media, think Yellowstone and not The Acolyte, but the left's raison d'être is championing "oppressed"(weirdos, minorities) groups against the "oppressor"(normal Americans). The left can not help but be "woke". It would take an Obama-type figure, a persuasive member of an "oppressed" group, to truly purge it.
LK is right about woke, it is not going anywhere.
'Woke' is now so deeply ingrained into America's institutions, that walking it back is practically impossible. It's America's operating system. The Trump administration may succeed in getting some of it re-branded and more subtly hidden, but they can never remove it.
Syria: My Chrysler car salesman, Ghazwan, I’ve known him for a year but we really get along. He is Alawite, I asked if his parents were OK back in Damascus, he burst into tears. A grown man, it was intense, it shook me up. So……
Western intervenes, Alawites, Nestorians, Assiryans, Yazidis, Christians are murdered.
Where can one get accurate truthful information on Syria? If true, the above is terrible and depressing.
It's not looking good for them at all.
Alawites played a rough game.
Only possible outcome ending Ukraine war is victory for one side, probably Russia. Do not believe that Ukraine can win unless NATO goes in on the ground. Western people are not used to body bags, in smaller families.
Trump must immediately appoint a special counsel to establish who made the decisions and executive orders for a senile buffoon. This is ten times more serious than Watergate. What did Pelosi, Schumer and Obama know?
Syria was given away, to jihadis, to protect Zionism. Remember, ISIS never hit the USA or Israel, it's financiers.
The EU will stumble from crisis to crisis losing credibility with every turn. Dead man walking.
Nobody will ask NATO populaces what they want. Trump will only escalate the war on Russia, and once Trump starts down that road, he won't be able to reverse course without being accused of betrayal.
Syria will be turned into a failed state. This is entirely intentional on the part of Israel and its American thug. Those who doubt should look at Iraq and Libya.
Trump will make no fundamental changes domestically (forget cosmetics and windowdressing) and probably couldn't, even if he wanted to. Trump remains weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
TL:DR, 2025 will see the acceleration of America's transition to a full-fledged empire.
Prediction: War with Iran.
I think Iran's fumble this year has upped the possibility of that happening.
My guess is that Turbo America will be even more turbo everywhere in the world except for China, where they are trying but are hitting a brick wall - the Great Wall. I know you like to shit on those Multipolarity guys (that Irish fellow is indeed annoying) but their episode with Steve Hsu about Chinese tech was quite good. Maybe the world will be bissexual, sorry, bipolar....
Which irish fellow?
I forgot his name. Philip something. Very annoying voice and quite pretentious.
Pilkington
Mr Multipolarity. Annoying but entertaining
When Damascus fell, he actually tried to argue that Turkey represents "a new pole".
My reply was "Multipolarity; but they're all NATO members!"
The USA just admitted that they can't stop Chinese chip tech advancement and will have to compete with them.
The US could have really fucked China in the ass back in late 90s and 2000s: all these tech embargoes and sanctions would have worked, trade war would have worked, the chicomms would now be fighting an unwinnable war against Uyghur fanatics in the mountains and deserts of Xinjiang. Your mention of that on the latest SCR was spot on! A chinese friend of mine travelled over there recently and said there are amazing roads, trains, bridges and crazy infrastructure being built everywhere in Xinjiang, also said 10 years ago there was absolutely nothing, it was Afghanistan level shithole. Imagine the quagmire if the Americans decided to spread democracy, human rights and institutions to East Turkestan in the year 2000... The chinks really played their hands really fucking well...
HNY 25
Happy New Year
AD 2025
Roman 2778
Muslim Hijri date 1, Rajab, 1446 A.H
Egyptian; Nabonassar
Year2773
Month 9 Day 20 Season Shemu
Month in season 1
Month name Pachon
Maya: 13.0.12.3.14 Tzolk'in: 4 Jaguar Haab: 17 Yellow Sun Night Lord: G 2
Jewish; 2nd of Tevet, 5785
ב׳ בְּטֵבֵת תשפ״ה
I am autistic and answered every question.
Global
Will a peace deal be reached regarding the War in Ukraine and will it stick?
Yes, Russia will want to be in contact with Europeans to lure them back to the juicy hydrocarbons as their decline escalates, and a Trump presidency is the best shot Ruskies have of renormalization, against the wishes of certain USian interests.
Can Syria manage to hold it together next year and not blow up again?
Doubt they're holding together anything but political theatre as we speak.
Will Israel take another run at Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon?
Probably, Israel is racking up a kill streak and aren't likely to stop until they're stopped. Though I don't know when elections are held, that could effect things. Don't see Trump pumping the brakes, since he can get so much out of a bargain.
What are the odds that China begins in 2025 to make moves on Taiwan?
Too much depends on Xi to say anything meaningful. China is a mad hive of mandarins commanded by an isolated mad emperor, anything could happen.
US Politics (not a yank)
Will large-scale deportations of illegal migrants take place next year?
If the criminal element counts as large scale, probably. If it really picks up steam I imagine it'll take into 2026 to get momentum, break resistance.
Will there be a deep state counterattack on the White House?
The deep state is like the CCP, any given party official might do something insane for clout. Will this get the ball rolling, or be crushed? No idea.
Has Wokeness peaked? Or is it just shoring up gains?
Wokeness will undergo another adaptive transformation, as woke grew from a defeated class based strategy. The managerial revolution will continue till the last mandarin is sacked.
Science
Will AI make a significant breakthrough in 2025?
I think there's a massive backlog of potential in configuring existing technology in novel ways, and these projects are more likely to develop now that the frontiers are in the hands of large corporations. If significant breakthrough means a phase change in raw power, I'm not qualified to say.
Is next year the year that Climate Change takes centre stage as a global issue?
The winds seem to be blowing in the opposite direction, inasmuch as the climate change mantra is largely a cover for deindustrialization and wealth transfer to the third world. People are returning to the obvious necessity of nuclear power, which would retrench enormous first world prosperity as against the third world which can't be trusted with it. More, the arguments for full renewables have empirically failed, and we're past the point of ignoring it. Electric cars aren't cool anymore.
Entertainment
What entertainment are you looking forward to enoying? (Nothing to do with predictions, obviously).
This and another substacks, number one Carribbean sexy show, Landshark tweets. The wider media world is dead to me.
Personal
Will you succeed with respect to your New Years Resolutions?
I'm starting a course leading into a career in the new year. I will go full blitzkrieg. By God's grace I will succeed.
HNY
High-powered concentration autism *thumbsup*
Thanks for this - was really good fodder for long family new year’s drive.
We added a sub question to AI, which was if the answer is yes, will that happen in the US or elsewhere.
(Which then brought in the fun question of if yes, and it’s medical related breakthrough(s), and it’s in China, can they AI-longevity hack their way out of their demographic crisis).
Remote medicine has been on the radar for some time now, so you're right. Everyone wants it.
Have thoughts on all but as for AI it seems we’ve plateaued for a while. Had dinner with a very in-the-know guy a couple weeks ago — he said we won’t see anything approaching singularity for at least another decade. It seems the problem is that all written data in existence has already been input into AI models to no avail. They’re now having to create synthetic data which will take much longer
"Synthetic data". What a great neologism.
mostly yes
Personal resolution : be more positive. With the answers below, I doubt I'll keep it.
1. Will a peace deal be reached regarding the War in Ukraine and will it stick? No, this will be fought to the bloody end. As long as this keeps going, the US gets to keep bleeding Russia, the Europeans are kept in thrall and Ukraine becomes an emptier and emptier "prize".
2. Can Syria manage to hold it together next year and not blow up again? The scariest would be another rapefugee crisis destabilizing Europe further. If the Kurds can be brought to reason or vanquished and the resources of the country re-federalized quickly, the dumpster fire might be put out. We just won't hear about it as much because Al-Jolani is our guy.
3. Will Israel take another run at Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon? Yes, kick them when they're down and finish the job. After that, short-term, no opponents immediately on their borders remain. 80% chance they smother them into insignificance.
4. What are the odds that China begins in 2025 to make moves on Taiwan? Entirely depends on US moves. Why invade when you can blockade and blow up TSMC factories, instantly wiping trillions in Apple, Intel, AMD and Nvidia stock value and potentially crippling them permanently? Out of all the hotspots in the world, it's both the scariest one and the easiest one to make a deal benefiting everyone but the Taiwanese.
5. Will large-scale deportations of illegal migrants take place next year? I'm sure this is wishful thinking, but yes. A sharp reduction in H1Bs, a few hundred thousand Modelo drinkers deported and deterring more from pouring in would be a great start. Karlin, Banania and other EHC proponents move to India out of spite and then move back in silent disgust a few months later.
6. Will there be a deep state counterattack on the White House? No, the hydra simply adapts and bides its time. Maybe around the midterms.
7. Has Wokeness peaked? Or is it just shoring up gains? Peaked. Rolling back its disastrous influence will be very difficult.
8. Will AI make a significant breakthrough in 2025? It keeps improving and finds more use cases, just enough to tread water. Still on the fence on this one. Professionally it's been a huge productivity booster and I use it more and more, and using tools like Perplexity for search instead of useless add-ridden "search engines" enshitified by Pajeet management is a breath of fresh air. Like Eric Hoel writes, AGI is a pipe dream : we don't even understand human consciousness. Most likely outcome mid-term is China wins.
9. Is next year the year that Climate Change takes centre stage as a global issue? No. That ship has sailed. Emitting more carbon VS changing our lifestyles = more carbon. AC FTW!
I am unsure about Climate Change...I lean towards it being the next big elite push to roll back populism.
I agree it's themost likely lever used for that purpose next. However, with crises everywhere and the example of countries with less or intermittent energy plunging into crisis I think it's unlikely to be able to gain much traction. *Crosses fingers*
we shlubs who no longer travel by air are going to tell jet-setting elites to get fucked, and may provide the means also.
They're already trying this in Britain and it's just causing more resentment which, in turn, is fuelling more populism. More likely they'll go for the 'Romania' options, i.e., cancelling elections, rigging results, lawfare and setting the cops on anyone who protests about it.
We’re most likely at the boot stomping on face, forever, phase of western history. Some jurisdictions might stomp hard or harder and have finer or coarser threads on the sole of said boot, so location arbitrage becomes more important than ever.
My two cents on this list:
1. No. The West will choke on Putin's terms and Putin will reject Trump's terms. The war will grind on to its grim, bloody military conclusion.
2. Al-Jolani is, indeed, our guy but can he hold together this unstable coalition? If he can't then chaos ensues. The truly worrying thing is that there are 50,000 ISIS fighters currently held in Kurdish prisons. If they are sprung then they will be heading to a Christmas market near you soon after.
3. A serious possibility. The Israelis will not want to give Hezbollah time and space to regroup and rearm. They may occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.
4. China doesn't need to do anything quite so dramatic. They just need to bide their time, develop their military and watch America's decline.
5. No. They will probably kick out a few German students who overstay their visas by 5 minutes, make a big fuss about in the media and then return to business as usual.
6. For sure and constantly, though it will be low-key and less obvious.
7. Yes but I agree that removing it from its perch at the summit will be nigh-on impossible.
8. American AI? No. It's already reached peak LGBTQ.
9. It's taken centre stage every year for the last decade but probably attended this year by more coercion and punishments.