It will end with a rump Ukraine state shorn of its Russian speaking areas and probably reduced to lands west of the Dniepre (sp?) river minus Odessa. It will be a mess of a place with not only Ukrainian speakers, but also with several million Poles, Hungarians, and Romanians. The whole impoverished mess will be thrown into the laps of the decadent West to deal with. Should be lots of fun.
If you had been paying attention, you would have realized that Russia's SA-400 and SA-500 systems have eviscerated the best missiles NATO has thrown at them. A few have gotten through, but 95% are shot down. Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's over for Ukraine. The US is a paper tiger...which Iran is about to demonstrate soon.
The problem with Ukraine is that 90% of the population believes that they will win the war. From that point of view they are not prepared to do any concession, not even regarding Crimea.
This collective madness is the product of a combination of censorship and propaganda. It is easy to lie about losses (people and equipment) on the battlefield. The only kind of loss that is not deniable is territory and until recently Ukraine's losses there were small and it could still bask in its 2022 Kharkov and Kherson successes.
Since Ocheretino Ukraine's territorial losses had become too obvious to ignore and finally Ukrainian public opinion became a bit more realistic. But that effect disappeared after Ukraine's "great successes" in Kursk. Now the old confidence is back. I don't expect it to last long.
It looks like the Russian advance is speeding up and the big question is how it will end. if Zelensky stays in charge I expect a complete breakdown. Russia has said that it doesn't trust Zelensky and doesn't want to negotiate with him. At some point the Ukrainian army will give up. Everyone will start to flee and Zelensky will become a king without land. The alternative is some kind of (probably US sponsored) coup that installs someone who is more acceptable to Russia who can negotiate some deal.
The man most named for this job is former interior minister Arsen Avakov. He is well connected inside Ukraine. However, he has a right extremist background and that raises the question how Russia would react.
The war ends either in a nuclear exchange or a coup in Russia. Right now, the leadership class in the West or even their Ukrainian puppet pay no price for continuing the war.
In your opinion, if Russia attacks a military facility in Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons, Washington will launch a retaliatory nuclear strike on Russia? I doubt it very much. There is a guarantee that within a few minutes Washington will be hit with a massive nuclear strike. And it understands this. Does it need this?
No, NATO would be delighted. Russia would lose any moral standing it had, Russian impotence would be on full display, and the US and Israel would feel entitled to use nuclear weapons, say, on Iran.
Yes. I don't have a better answer for you right now, and I sincerely apologize for this. I need to get smarter regarding doing book clubs as most have not worked out as intended, with THE FINAL PAGAN GENERATION being a successful exception.
Don't worry, take your time to do your research right. Personally I have no problem with a lack of content, since it is rightly justified. I just was afraid that something was up with my subscription.
Iranian and Chinese inaction shows that they're fine with how things are going.
The disastrous Russian campaign in Ukraine, akin to a bear repeatedly roaring and stepping on a rake may turn out to be the spectacle that prevents China from invading Taiwan, and a true world war.
Meanwhile, Israel does such a fine job of alienating everyone and burning credit, that the Iranians just have to wait and do nothing, apart from enduring provocations.
"..Meanwhile, Israel does such a fine job of alienating everyone and burning credit, that the Iranians just have to wait and do nothing, apart from enduring provocations...."
Alienating everyone? Blinken just announced the approval of a $20 billion arms deal—the largest between the two countries. The deal includes air-to-air missiles, nearly100,000 different shells, armored vehicles, and up to 50 F-15 aircraft to form a new squadron for the Israeli Air Force.
As far as provocations go, I think you have it backwards.
Tehran fuhrerbunker crowd probably wise to invest in the Tel Aviv stock exchange or Israeli bonds via a dummy company. Worked OK for the grandkids of those who got the message at Stalingrad and put their dough in Wall St.
In the long run the Islamic Republic is doomed. Corruption and environmental mismanagment alone will finish it of. The next wave of hydrocarbon wealth will be jet fuel for the process of regime collapse. The great motive the mullahs have for rapprochement with the West is to secure safe havens for the loot while they still can. The UK and Switzerland could very easily end up as the Argentina of the Islamofascists.
There is undeniably an element of that involved. But it was the wealth from oil that destabilised Iran in the 1970s. And the Islamic Republic is increasingly unpopular at home. There is an abundance of evidence that the regime is becoming more fragile.
American support for Israel has come at a very high price for Israel, whose greatest days were up to 1967 , and we’ve been betraying them at table since the alliance formed. The highest price being sovereignty… but as the Boomers DIE at last that’s changing. It’s fatal usually to be America’s friend or ally, they’re just very persistent these people.
Really we’ve played far more the fool for Saudi Arabia.
I’m not Israeli, the short answer is; BOOMERS. I doubt this will align with your priors, but here goes-
In this case Israeli Boomers, Neoliberal Israeli secular Boomers who like money and “tech” more than any future for Israeli children.
This SEEMS to be the case.
Bibi has also and still is playing a dangerous game, but well. Well enough Israel had 40% of GDP when this started. Enough to survive the intended betrayal of Israel to (?) Iran, our long policy, it began openly with Obama but goes back farther. Iran of course has been our desired Persian Bride since Kermit Roosevelt “helped” the British with Operation Ajax.
I just want our government and so the country to STOP BETRAYING in what is a mania, Hell it’s a Tardive reflex. If we stop betraying someone, anyone, over anything perhaps WE 🇺🇸 can stop betraying Americans?
There’s another analysis which I have posted earlier below; summary is the American State Department aka the Fix 2020 and so 2024 American election but also has wanted to destroy Israel for decades couldn’t choose and was on the Horns of a Dilemma where they had to choose the destruction by betrayal of one at the expense of missing the other.
As it happens they couldn’t and so missed both. 😊
Here’s US DoS actual policy towards Israel as of May 2023, HAMAS delayed and possibly derailed this South African ~ Belgian Congo resolution to the Zionist question. An article in this magazine is a Diktat, not opinion. The Israeli Supreme Court was to manage collapse, that’s what the fight was about.
Here’s my analysis is May. Only update is unable to choose they lost both.
Horns of 24
NO SHORT ANSWER POSSIBLE.
DC is on the horns of a dilemma and that suits we MAGA types fine.
Because DC and the Imperial Dems can’t destroy Trump AND betray Israel this one election year.
What’s right for America is this one time it is most important to not betray a client state in need.
This is the move for America, because this one time, it really does impact here. Strangely. We became intertwined by our State Department.
The client “ally” is Israel, which is an Imperial Province of America and no more sovereign than Florida.
(Note - it was founded Independent of us, then sold out. We helped them far less achieve Independence than France helped us. )
Betrayal being our 🇺🇸governments policy foreign and domestic*. In the strangest way for the first time this year at a moment of internal crisis for both countries this is now an actually important domestic political issue. The American Left and Elites have taken up the standard of Gaza because they deplore those Americans who support Israel- or are perceived to be “Zionists”,
The Right and American Jews , both of whom are rivals or threats. The hatred of the Right and MAGA needs no explanation. The hatred for Establishment Jews -who are very liberal- is the hatred of a rival within the Left and the Democratic Party. Politics is Power, to the Left politics is religion and power God, that opponents are hated enemies understandable.
Because the 24 election is already being challenged in the courts clearly stopping Trump and his faction are very important. Important enough to do everything short of just imprisoning or shooting him.
(This my faction, Trump being the only card we have I support him, flaws and all).
Meanwhile in Israel they face a two front war; they must completely destroy HAMAS or lose all internal credibility - and possibly cohesion- a scenario where HAMAS does win because Israel unravels. The other front is against; the American Foreign policy community. The State Department you see has never been fond of Israel. This is not antisemitism as much as anti colonialism, which is probably the strongest current in our foreign policy since 1945,
Stronger than anti communism, just quiet.
Anti communism was loud and barely worked. Anti colonialism was a quiet runaway success. All the European Empires were dismantled in 30 years. By 1975 the last were gone.
> except Israel.
To this anticolonial end in Israel, our Diplomats have worked tirelessly for peace, the same peace South Africa and Rhodesia, South Vietnam got. They were nearly there - to begin we’ve been buying Israelis for decades. We also educated most of their officers and all their generals. Israelis often have houses and businesses in America.
The secular Israelis plan to run here when the dreaded Arab birth rate over takes them … and they understand American Foreign policy very well.
Sorry, closer to the rest of our allies than believed.
The Israeli Supreme Court very “Liberal” and like all liberals they like Dollars.
THEN On the very eve of the Israeli Supreme Court ruling itself the power to change the Constitution (alter basic law) and so give the Palestinians the vote (destroying Israel in a bloodbath, but democratic bloodbath) … HAMAS attacked on 10/7.
It may be said that October 7th saved Israel from itself, and from its reliably treacherous Master DC.
Strangely they just might have helped Americans too, the Lefties deployed months ahead of the election.
> what has this to do with our election? IT FORCES A DILEMMA on Official Washington at a moment of weakness; they cannot destroy MAGA and keep America AND destroy Israel as well. Not at the same time, they aren’t strong enough at this point.
DC is on the horns of a dilemma; destroy MAGA and save the Empire?
Or destroy Israel at last by peace and democracy ?
DC is on the horns of a dilemma and that suits we MAGA types fine.
The destruction of MAGA (to save the 🇺🇸 Empire from Trump) is essential to keeping the Empire. But the destruction of Israel a long cherished goal and aim - certainly you didn’t believe our Diplomats were trying to make Peace in the Middle East and it was just within their grasp when HAMAS blew everything up.
( Now had HAMAS done this another time DC would not have this dilemma. )
The perfect outcome; DC can’t decide and is paralyzed, America makes it and so does Israel.
THAT HAPPENED.
As it happens so far both MAGA and Israel are surviving . Unable to choose, DC and to an extent the Democratic Party are unraveling.
*Our 🇺🇸 Foreign Policy is our Domestic Policy.
The State Department and its minions put Biden in office via the 2020 American Color Revolution, which it was and is, our foreign policy is our domestic policy now;
Betray all, Betray us to our ruin. We are all enemies to their rule.
All true but the real lesson for America is to be learnt from the UK and the Gulf. Relying on recycled petrodollars transformed the relationship with implications from real estate to immigration and race relations that are only now becoming obvious. The City of London traded the Rothschilds for the Al Thani. Perhaps Lord Balfour was less of a fool than his latter day critics like to think.
America should stick to Venezuelan gas. You'll end up with more amenable results long-term.
Not to mention the Arab states gave up on HAMAS and “Palestine” years ago, they are helping Israel get around the blockade. They know well America is leaving and how treacherous and tenuous American foreign policy is - and Israel is staying.
Palestinian behaviour in Kuwait in GW1 soured things for good. No way the Gulf rulers were ever going to forget any of that.
I also credit 9/11, GWOT and the fall of Saddam. America's failure to reward the Iraqi Kurds with a state would not have helped. To give credit where it is due, the Sa’udis ditched their villains when they had the chance and they regarded Obama as a total joke from the beginning. His Islamophilia struck them as cringe and Pakistani intelligence would have tipped them off about Obama’s mom and the issue of his sexuality.
I also think that the Gulf Arabs figured out that they had been played by London and Washington long enough.
This is very true, and no I’m not a Zionist. I do think we need to stop betraying people, if we 🇺🇸 can’t start with loyalty to our own (and DC won’t) then we may as well start abroad.
Israel is the American State Department’s last bit of anti-colonial cleanup. There’s been 2 strong themes of American policy since 1945.
Anti communism and
anti-colonialism.
Loud and quiet, Loud covered quiet, quiet was stronger and more important.
Anti communism was loud and barely worked. Anti colonialism was a quiet runaway success. All the European Empires were dismantled in 30 years. By 1975 the last were gone.
> except Israel.
To this anticolonial end in Israel, our Diplomats have worked tirelessly for peace, the same peace South Africa and Rhodesia, South Vietnam got. They were nearly there - to begin we’ve been buying Israelis for decades. We also educated most of their officers and all their generals. Israelis often have houses and businesses in America. Etc.
It should be abundantly obvious already that the Russian leadership does not want this war and is hoping that it will go away, or that they can bludgeon Ukraine into seeing reason. The West, by contrast, is itching to fight, at least as long as Ukrainians do the dying.
Russia does not seek to end the West but join it. Hence, the Russian leadership does not want to admit that they are hated and feared, that no matter how reasonable they act, no matter how many symphonies they write, they never will be allowed into The Club.
Of course not. But is is Indeed strange to think that the men who govern Russsa would evervthink it an honour to pal around with the likes of Obama or the Clintons. Irony abounds. Perhaps this is proof of providence?
Torn between really enjoying the relative peace of this region and wanting your ‘nothing is happening’ to fail so spectacularly it changes the face of earth - I think it’s probably good i don’t have any power
The assassination attempt was further proof that the US is not far behind Ukraine as a gangster state. The relative ease with which regime has moved on indicates how very little is left of the old expectations of civility, legality and good order. The big question is how close are we to seeing any kind of civil unrest?
Agree 100% but I think this ties back to the US election question posed at the top of the post. Since 2016 and particularly since 2020 we’ve seen all of our political institutions upended in the pursuit of Trump, including 1) our previously somewhat impartial media converted in an instrument of North Korea level coordinated propaganda, 2) online censorship as revealed by the Twitter files and otherwise, 3) loss of confidence in supposedly non-partisan organizations like the FBI and CDC as they are used for political purposes, 4) blatant political use of the courts against political opponents including law fare to keep Trump off the ballot but also threats against Tulsi Gabbard, Scott Ritter, the Uhuru group and other critics of the regime, 5) hijacking of peaceful January 6 demonstrators to manufacture a Reichstag fire event and 6) of course the assassination attempt.
I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020 because I thought he was unprincipled and ineffective. I still feel that way but I will definitely vote for him this time (if he survives until Election Day) because the only way to slow this train without violence is for a majority of voters to tell the US establishment that their actions are unacceptable. I’m afraid that a Harris victory would only embolden them as evidence that the sheep are joyfully awaiting authoritarianism.
I assume the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk is a prelude to suing for peace, adding a bargaining chip - “we’ll give you back *your* land if you give us back X, Y, Z”.
As an outsider it seems silly - Russia is winning on the primary front and Kursk is a sideshow - but Russian doomers on the internet are convinced Putin will give away the store to end this, so I guess we’ll see.
Hardly a sideshow that they are now losing their best remaining troops in what is effectively a killing zone faster than at any time hitherto during this conflict, along with materiel to match. One can only marvel at the stupidity of the Ukrainians and their western advisors if they thought invading the Kursk region was going to achieve anything other than an acceleration of the slaughter and, by denuding the main defensive line, eventual defeat.
As regards the Russians looking a bit sheepish, perhaps but only because they believed that even Zelensky and his NATO muppet advisors could be quite that stupid.
I think it will be interesting to watch how both American parties handle up and coming players. Both teams need to figure out their respective benches for the future. The D's bench does look weak, and Trump is not getting any younger and will likely be gone sooner rather than later, joining Biden in the old folks home.
The die was cast when America elected Obama, not once, but twice. A people that is willingly governed by a man who despises it is not a nation, merely an accretion of biomass.
The absence of any significant pushback from Biden after the last election confirmed the lack of spirit. Furthermore, the refusal or disinclination of anyone to rally to the cause of the Jan 6 political prisoners sent a message to potential troublemakers: you are on your own.
Fundamentally, the election is irrelevant. The issue at stake is managed decline. Trump offers the possibility of applying a degree of caution and common sense to decline, Harris the certainty of exponential progress to the same.
The pushback to election fraud will ultimately come from bond holders. An illegitimate regime can issue negotiable securities but financiers understand that gangsters cannot be trusted to honour their debts. Slowly, very slowly, America's trading partners and allies will look to reduce their exposure to US federal debt. As this process unfolds the regime will seek to consolidate the financial system through currency reform. Central bank digital currencies. Mark of the beast stuff.
As the US transforms into Greater California or New Lebanon foreigners with hard currency will snatch up assets. Rival regimes will buy out US institutions. Washington will partner with the Third World. The Global Majority diasporas and fifth columns within the US will mobilise to demand concessions/tribute.
Trump is not just managed decline in terms of Empire, but rebirth of our nation at home, which is more important.
Harris may “win” on election night by er ah Fortified democracy, but she’s a steeper decline for DC… and rapidly.
The strength of America isn’t in government and certainly not DC, but the people. Not all nations are this way, we’re closer to England than say Russia or France that way.
Another example of a nation being the strength not the government- I give you- Ukraine.
Fight you certainly shall. The question is how soon.
If the regime had a lick of sense they would have done a deal instead of trying to blow Trump's head off. This is the political equivalent of suicide by cop. All they needed to offer up was perhaps Hilary and a few nobodies. Orange Hitler is now incentivised to go after real players for the sake of his continued health.
And the Children of Light got what they wanted so the Global Majority are spilling across an open border. The frontier never closes for long... it's been reopened for business under the wife's name and the Third World are homesteading.
But will the locals consider themselves enriched? If not, too bad. Once history gets the belt out it is too late to say that you are sorry.
The “American people” have changed beyond all recognition from the country’s halcyon days. Currently, ~45% of the under-18 age cohort is white, trending down. By century’s end the country will be 30-35% white.
Many things might be predicted of such a state, but that its institutions or mores might resemble the previous version of America is not among them.
Was thinking of linking that John Carter piece myself. Perspicacious as usual -- but beside the point. So what if the Dems pull another 2020? As you correctly note, "Fundamentally, the election is irrelevant. The issue at stake is managed decline." Mr. Carter -- bless his sweet Canadian heart -- still believes we can wrest the helm from (now black-casted Jamaican woman) Captain Ahab and turn this ship around; give up our chase of the Moby Dick Progressive utopia. We cannot. And even if we could, there is no tranquil harbor in sight. The Dems are correct when they chant, "We are not going back!" The only way out is through.
And it's gonna be rough. The GAE is losing the war over Ukraine. All the PR in the world does not offset a 5-1 ratio in manpower and artillery firing, which the Russkies now enjoy along the entire front. Speaking of PR, the Kursk incursion was 'successful' in that regard. It embarrassed Moscow and gave Ukraine cheerleaders in the West something to crow about. But strategically? Everyone involved will be KIA / captured within a month. And "very few" Russian troops have been diverted from the primary battle line to deal with it.
No one in Washington -- let alone the reviled usurper Trump, nor the tipsy VP bimbo Harris -- has any idea what to do about the Ukraine situation (besides fork over government contracts to Raytheon, etc., which was gonna happen anyway). They're floundering. So it doesn't matter who's in the White House, per Will Schryver from earlier this month ( https://substack.com/home/post/p-147109269?source=queue ):
"Donald J. Trump is not destined to be the savior of the American Republic. In the first place, there is no American Republic to save. There is only a rapidly crumbling empire led by clueless fools who cannot see the writing on the wall, and who could not interpret it even if they could.
"Trump, if elected, will twist in the ever-changing winds of perceived exigency, and will ultimately be persuaded by his hand-picked entourage of imbeciles to make a series of ill-advised decisions that will lead to a shocking American military defeat and an unprecedented devaluation of the US dollar that will collapse the purchasing power of the overwhelming majority of Americans.[...]
"A Kamala Harris presidency will lead to all the same places a Trump presidency would lead, just with more drag queens, rainbow flags, and social upheaval."
I get the impression that the invasion in Kursk is turning out much worse for Ukraine than expected.
They suffered considerable losses with the invasion. And those troops and equipment could have been better used elsewhere. But that part - however foolish - was expected.
The trouble is that they now need to keep that area occupied. So they need to keep sending in supplies, equipment and people while Russia keeps bombing both the supply lines and the positions in the Kursk area. In addition Russia is also bombing Ukraine's Sumy region from which those supplies come.
So Russia has ceded a very thinly populated area and has now a shooting range where it can weaken the Ukrainian army.
Iran is quite capable of retaliating with devastating force. Israel is trying to save face, not their opponents. The clock is ticking for the Zionist project. Either Israel calms down or they disappear from the map. With Russian SA 400 (and perhaps SA 500) ground-to-air systems now in place, the ability of Israel to strike Iran has been massively complicated...even with US assistance. But on the other hand, Israel's Swiss Cheese Dome will not protect them from what Iran is planning to send their way. I predict Iran will simply obliterate one of Israel's intelligence gathering bases. And time is on Iran's side. They are in no hurry. Don't believe me? Wait and watch. No explanations will be necessary. PS: We can't save Israel.
An appropriate response from Iran would be to assassinate a high ranking Israeli official. But they didn't invest enough to pull it off. So ballistic missiles it shall be...
Iran is not into gratuitously killing civilians (unlike Israel). They will target and destroy a military target. Any Israelis within said target are fair game.
The BBC Arabic service reported a short while ago (maybe a week) that the man who had led the Hizbollah negotiating team in talks with the US admitted that Obama Administrstion had leaked militarily sensitive information about Israel to them. This has apparently been confirmed by Lebanese officials.
I doubt that there would be too many US allies incapable of appreciating this. For a country that relies on alliance structures this is very ill thought-out indeed.
US Election will be rigged again this year as it was in 2020 so it will be President Harris. The US will never have another honest, real general election.
It will end with a rump Ukraine state shorn of its Russian speaking areas and probably reduced to lands west of the Dniepre (sp?) river minus Odessa. It will be a mess of a place with not only Ukrainian speakers, but also with several million Poles, Hungarians, and Romanians. The whole impoverished mess will be thrown into the laps of the decadent West to deal with. Should be lots of fun.
Many wars ended on papers. Somehow this war will also be closed after Russia's advance in the southeast.
Obviously you get all your information from the NYTimes. I suggest you sit tight and just watch what happens after the election in November.
If you had been paying attention, you would have realized that Russia's SA-400 and SA-500 systems have eviscerated the best missiles NATO has thrown at them. A few have gotten through, but 95% are shot down. Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's over for Ukraine. The US is a paper tiger...which Iran is about to demonstrate soon.
The problem with Ukraine is that 90% of the population believes that they will win the war. From that point of view they are not prepared to do any concession, not even regarding Crimea.
This collective madness is the product of a combination of censorship and propaganda. It is easy to lie about losses (people and equipment) on the battlefield. The only kind of loss that is not deniable is territory and until recently Ukraine's losses there were small and it could still bask in its 2022 Kharkov and Kherson successes.
Since Ocheretino Ukraine's territorial losses had become too obvious to ignore and finally Ukrainian public opinion became a bit more realistic. But that effect disappeared after Ukraine's "great successes" in Kursk. Now the old confidence is back. I don't expect it to last long.
It looks like the Russian advance is speeding up and the big question is how it will end. if Zelensky stays in charge I expect a complete breakdown. Russia has said that it doesn't trust Zelensky and doesn't want to negotiate with him. At some point the Ukrainian army will give up. Everyone will start to flee and Zelensky will become a king without land. The alternative is some kind of (probably US sponsored) coup that installs someone who is more acceptable to Russia who can negotiate some deal.
The man most named for this job is former interior minister Arsen Avakov. He is well connected inside Ukraine. However, he has a right extremist background and that raises the question how Russia would react.
Dude, Russia no longer gives a flying shit about NATO. Or the USA.
Vexing question.
The war ends either in a nuclear exchange or a coup in Russia. Right now, the leadership class in the West or even their Ukrainian puppet pay no price for continuing the war.
In your opinion, if Russia attacks a military facility in Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons, Washington will launch a retaliatory nuclear strike on Russia? I doubt it very much. There is a guarantee that within a few minutes Washington will be hit with a massive nuclear strike. And it understands this. Does it need this?
No, NATO would be delighted. Russia would lose any moral standing it had, Russian impotence would be on full display, and the US and Israel would feel entitled to use nuclear weapons, say, on Iran.
Alright, back to work for me.
What happened to the book club? Did it get sidelined for the Spanish Civil War series?
Yes. I don't have a better answer for you right now, and I sincerely apologize for this. I need to get smarter regarding doing book clubs as most have not worked out as intended, with THE FINAL PAGAN GENERATION being a successful exception.
Don't worry, take your time to do your research right. Personally I have no problem with a lack of content, since it is rightly justified. I just was afraid that something was up with my subscription.
E.g. bookclub being moved to a higher tier or whatever
The Paul Klebnikov book worked out pretty well.
Anyone worth interviewing around?
The AIDs series is IMO unsurpassed in media as a candid and coherent narrative,
Iranian and Chinese inaction shows that they're fine with how things are going.
The disastrous Russian campaign in Ukraine, akin to a bear repeatedly roaring and stepping on a rake may turn out to be the spectacle that prevents China from invading Taiwan, and a true world war.
Meanwhile, Israel does such a fine job of alienating everyone and burning credit, that the Iranians just have to wait and do nothing, apart from enduring provocations.
Yup yup
"..Meanwhile, Israel does such a fine job of alienating everyone and burning credit, that the Iranians just have to wait and do nothing, apart from enduring provocations...."
Alienating everyone? Blinken just announced the approval of a $20 billion arms deal—the largest between the two countries. The deal includes air-to-air missiles, nearly100,000 different shells, armored vehicles, and up to 50 F-15 aircraft to form a new squadron for the Israeli Air Force.
As far as provocations go, I think you have it backwards.
> Israel is not in trouble diplomatically in the short term
In the long term the time is on Iran's side. That's one of the reasons I think Israel is trying to force the showdown now.
Nor does Iran. Iran has thousands of rockets.
Israel has nuclear weapons.
We can go on…
Tehran fuhrerbunker crowd probably wise to invest in the Tel Aviv stock exchange or Israeli bonds via a dummy company. Worked OK for the grandkids of those who got the message at Stalingrad and put their dough in Wall St.
In the long run the Islamic Republic is doomed. Corruption and environmental mismanagment alone will finish it of. The next wave of hydrocarbon wealth will be jet fuel for the process of regime collapse. The great motive the mullahs have for rapprochement with the West is to secure safe havens for the loot while they still can. The UK and Switzerland could very easily end up as the Argentina of the Islamofascists.
This sounds like wishful thinking to me.
There is undeniably an element of that involved. But it was the wealth from oil that destabilised Iran in the 1970s. And the Islamic Republic is increasingly unpopular at home. There is an abundance of evidence that the regime is becoming more fragile.
American support for Israel has come at a very high price for Israel, whose greatest days were up to 1967 , and we’ve been betraying them at table since the alliance formed. The highest price being sovereignty… but as the Boomers DIE at last that’s changing. It’s fatal usually to be America’s friend or ally, they’re just very persistent these people.
Really we’ve played far more the fool for Saudi Arabia.
I’m not Israeli, the short answer is; BOOMERS. I doubt this will align with your priors, but here goes-
In this case Israeli Boomers, Neoliberal Israeli secular Boomers who like money and “tech” more than any future for Israeli children.
This SEEMS to be the case.
Bibi has also and still is playing a dangerous game, but well. Well enough Israel had 40% of GDP when this started. Enough to survive the intended betrayal of Israel to (?) Iran, our long policy, it began openly with Obama but goes back farther. Iran of course has been our desired Persian Bride since Kermit Roosevelt “helped” the British with Operation Ajax.
I just want our government and so the country to STOP BETRAYING in what is a mania, Hell it’s a Tardive reflex. If we stop betraying someone, anyone, over anything perhaps WE 🇺🇸 can stop betraying Americans?
There’s another analysis which I have posted earlier below; summary is the American State Department aka the Fix 2020 and so 2024 American election but also has wanted to destroy Israel for decades couldn’t choose and was on the Horns of a Dilemma where they had to choose the destruction by betrayal of one at the expense of missing the other.
As it happens they couldn’t and so missed both. 😊
Here’s US DoS actual policy towards Israel as of May 2023, HAMAS delayed and possibly derailed this South African ~ Belgian Congo resolution to the Zionist question. An article in this magazine is a Diktat, not opinion. The Israeli Supreme Court was to manage collapse, that’s what the fight was about.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/israel-palestine-one-state-solution?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=twofa&utm_campaign=The%20World%20Beyond%20Ukraine&utm_content=20230421&utm_term=FA%20This%20Week%20-%20112017
Here’s my analysis is May. Only update is unable to choose they lost both.
Horns of 24
NO SHORT ANSWER POSSIBLE.
DC is on the horns of a dilemma and that suits we MAGA types fine.
Because DC and the Imperial Dems can’t destroy Trump AND betray Israel this one election year.
What’s right for America is this one time it is most important to not betray a client state in need.
This is the move for America, because this one time, it really does impact here. Strangely. We became intertwined by our State Department.
The client “ally” is Israel, which is an Imperial Province of America and no more sovereign than Florida.
(Note - it was founded Independent of us, then sold out. We helped them far less achieve Independence than France helped us. )
Betrayal being our 🇺🇸governments policy foreign and domestic*. In the strangest way for the first time this year at a moment of internal crisis for both countries this is now an actually important domestic political issue. The American Left and Elites have taken up the standard of Gaza because they deplore those Americans who support Israel- or are perceived to be “Zionists”,
The Right and American Jews , both of whom are rivals or threats. The hatred of the Right and MAGA needs no explanation. The hatred for Establishment Jews -who are very liberal- is the hatred of a rival within the Left and the Democratic Party. Politics is Power, to the Left politics is religion and power God, that opponents are hated enemies understandable.
Because the 24 election is already being challenged in the courts clearly stopping Trump and his faction are very important. Important enough to do everything short of just imprisoning or shooting him.
(This my faction, Trump being the only card we have I support him, flaws and all).
Meanwhile in Israel they face a two front war; they must completely destroy HAMAS or lose all internal credibility - and possibly cohesion- a scenario where HAMAS does win because Israel unravels. The other front is against; the American Foreign policy community. The State Department you see has never been fond of Israel. This is not antisemitism as much as anti colonialism, which is probably the strongest current in our foreign policy since 1945,
Stronger than anti communism, just quiet.
Anti communism was loud and barely worked. Anti colonialism was a quiet runaway success. All the European Empires were dismantled in 30 years. By 1975 the last were gone.
> except Israel.
To this anticolonial end in Israel, our Diplomats have worked tirelessly for peace, the same peace South Africa and Rhodesia, South Vietnam got. They were nearly there - to begin we’ve been buying Israelis for decades. We also educated most of their officers and all their generals. Israelis often have houses and businesses in America.
The secular Israelis plan to run here when the dreaded Arab birth rate over takes them … and they understand American Foreign policy very well.
Sorry, closer to the rest of our allies than believed.
The Israeli Supreme Court very “Liberal” and like all liberals they like Dollars.
THEN On the very eve of the Israeli Supreme Court ruling itself the power to change the Constitution (alter basic law) and so give the Palestinians the vote (destroying Israel in a bloodbath, but democratic bloodbath) … HAMAS attacked on 10/7.
It may be said that October 7th saved Israel from itself, and from its reliably treacherous Master DC.
Strangely they just might have helped Americans too, the Lefties deployed months ahead of the election.
> what has this to do with our election? IT FORCES A DILEMMA on Official Washington at a moment of weakness; they cannot destroy MAGA and keep America AND destroy Israel as well. Not at the same time, they aren’t strong enough at this point.
DC is on the horns of a dilemma; destroy MAGA and save the Empire?
Or destroy Israel at last by peace and democracy ?
DC is on the horns of a dilemma and that suits we MAGA types fine.
The destruction of MAGA (to save the 🇺🇸 Empire from Trump) is essential to keeping the Empire. But the destruction of Israel a long cherished goal and aim - certainly you didn’t believe our Diplomats were trying to make Peace in the Middle East and it was just within their grasp when HAMAS blew everything up.
( Now had HAMAS done this another time DC would not have this dilemma. )
The perfect outcome; DC can’t decide and is paralyzed, America makes it and so does Israel.
THAT HAPPENED.
As it happens so far both MAGA and Israel are surviving . Unable to choose, DC and to an extent the Democratic Party are unraveling.
*Our 🇺🇸 Foreign Policy is our Domestic Policy.
The State Department and its minions put Biden in office via the 2020 American Color Revolution, which it was and is, our foreign policy is our domestic policy now;
Betray all, Betray us to our ruin. We are all enemies to their rule.
All true but the real lesson for America is to be learnt from the UK and the Gulf. Relying on recycled petrodollars transformed the relationship with implications from real estate to immigration and race relations that are only now becoming obvious. The City of London traded the Rothschilds for the Al Thani. Perhaps Lord Balfour was less of a fool than his latter day critics like to think.
America should stick to Venezuelan gas. You'll end up with more amenable results long-term.
BTW attitudes towards Israel less important than geopolitics. US support connected to US role in Europe and Asia, not sentimental public opinion.
"Holocaustianity" -- I love it! After his death, we used to talk about the "Jesification" of Yitzhak Rabin.
We need to stop betraying people.
Good heavens the entire foreign policy of America since Wilson has had no benefits for us.
Not to mention the Arab states gave up on HAMAS and “Palestine” years ago, they are helping Israel get around the blockade. They know well America is leaving and how treacherous and tenuous American foreign policy is - and Israel is staying.
It’s all drama.
Palestinian behaviour in Kuwait in GW1 soured things for good. No way the Gulf rulers were ever going to forget any of that.
I also credit 9/11, GWOT and the fall of Saddam. America's failure to reward the Iraqi Kurds with a state would not have helped. To give credit where it is due, the Sa’udis ditched their villains when they had the chance and they regarded Obama as a total joke from the beginning. His Islamophilia struck them as cringe and Pakistani intelligence would have tipped them off about Obama’s mom and the issue of his sexuality.
I also think that the Gulf Arabs figured out that they had been played by London and Washington long enough.
Iran's attack on Israel did not result in a global celebration, but neither does anything Israel is doing right now.
It's preferable for Iran to keep Israel the chief actor in this mess and stay clear.
Israel only alienates those who liaid in wait to resume open-hating Jews. As in the "good old days" of, say, 1939.
This is very true, and no I’m not a Zionist. I do think we need to stop betraying people, if we 🇺🇸 can’t start with loyalty to our own (and DC won’t) then we may as well start abroad.
The travelling medicine show of geopolitics moves on. AUKUS ensures that Australis and Antarctica remain in play. Cry my beloved country.
Israel is the American State Department’s last bit of anti-colonial cleanup. There’s been 2 strong themes of American policy since 1945.
Anti communism and
anti-colonialism.
Loud and quiet, Loud covered quiet, quiet was stronger and more important.
Anti communism was loud and barely worked. Anti colonialism was a quiet runaway success. All the European Empires were dismantled in 30 years. By 1975 the last were gone.
> except Israel.
To this anticolonial end in Israel, our Diplomats have worked tirelessly for peace, the same peace South Africa and Rhodesia, South Vietnam got. They were nearly there - to begin we’ve been buying Israelis for decades. We also educated most of their officers and all their generals. Israelis often have houses and businesses in America. Etc.
WE 🇺🇸 BOUGHT THEM 🇮🇱
It should be abundantly obvious already that the Russian leadership does not want this war and is hoping that it will go away, or that they can bludgeon Ukraine into seeing reason. The West, by contrast, is itching to fight, at least as long as Ukrainians do the dying.
Russia does not seek to end the West but join it. Hence, the Russian leadership does not want to admit that they are hated and feared, that no matter how reasonable they act, no matter how many symphonies they write, they never will be allowed into The Club.
Nobody of influence and authority cares.
Russia is better off outside the club. Russia is not isolated, but protected by keeping its distance from the madhouse of Europe and the US.
The Russian leadership do not see things that way.
Of course not. But is is Indeed strange to think that the men who govern Russsa would evervthink it an honour to pal around with the likes of Obama or the Clintons. Irony abounds. Perhaps this is proof of providence?
Russia always has one foot in Asia and one in Europe.
But do the Russians still want to join the club West?
Of course.
Torn between really enjoying the relative peace of this region and wanting your ‘nothing is happening’ to fail so spectacularly it changes the face of earth - I think it’s probably good i don’t have any power
The assassination attempt was further proof that the US is not far behind Ukraine as a gangster state. The relative ease with which regime has moved on indicates how very little is left of the old expectations of civility, legality and good order. The big question is how close are we to seeing any kind of civil unrest?
Agree 100% but I think this ties back to the US election question posed at the top of the post. Since 2016 and particularly since 2020 we’ve seen all of our political institutions upended in the pursuit of Trump, including 1) our previously somewhat impartial media converted in an instrument of North Korea level coordinated propaganda, 2) online censorship as revealed by the Twitter files and otherwise, 3) loss of confidence in supposedly non-partisan organizations like the FBI and CDC as they are used for political purposes, 4) blatant political use of the courts against political opponents including law fare to keep Trump off the ballot but also threats against Tulsi Gabbard, Scott Ritter, the Uhuru group and other critics of the regime, 5) hijacking of peaceful January 6 demonstrators to manufacture a Reichstag fire event and 6) of course the assassination attempt.
I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020 because I thought he was unprincipled and ineffective. I still feel that way but I will definitely vote for him this time (if he survives until Election Day) because the only way to slow this train without violence is for a majority of voters to tell the US establishment that their actions are unacceptable. I’m afraid that a Harris victory would only embolden them as evidence that the sheep are joyfully awaiting authoritarianism.
The only question is whether those tactics deliver the desired results. All indications show that they will be successful.
I assume the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk is a prelude to suing for peace, adding a bargaining chip - “we’ll give you back *your* land if you give us back X, Y, Z”.
As an outsider it seems silly - Russia is winning on the primary front and Kursk is a sideshow - but Russian doomers on the internet are convinced Putin will give away the store to end this, so I guess we’ll see.
Russia already was ready to enter into a Minsk-3, even though Minsk and Minsk-2 were obvious shams that should have fooled nobody.
Hardly a sideshow that they are now losing their best remaining troops in what is effectively a killing zone faster than at any time hitherto during this conflict, along with materiel to match. One can only marvel at the stupidity of the Ukrainians and their western advisors if they thought invading the Kursk region was going to achieve anything other than an acceleration of the slaughter and, by denuding the main defensive line, eventual defeat.
As regards the Russians looking a bit sheepish, perhaps but only because they believed that even Zelensky and his NATO muppet advisors could be quite that stupid.
Ukraine is the Fredo of the Slavic world. "I can handle things! I'm smart!"
I think it will be interesting to watch how both American parties handle up and coming players. Both teams need to figure out their respective benches for the future. The D's bench does look weak, and Trump is not getting any younger and will likely be gone sooner rather than later, joining Biden in the old folks home.
Pop some popcorn. Should be entertaining.
Oh shit i thought I posted this but it's the other red
lol.
Trump almost certainly will lose, which will be the cue for the Bush/Cheney neocon wing to purge populist voices.
The establishment should thank their lucky stars for weak, stupid, easily manipulated Trump. God forbid they got a competent populist.
Good heavens get your shots !
The die was cast when America elected Obama, not once, but twice. A people that is willingly governed by a man who despises it is not a nation, merely an accretion of biomass.
The absence of any significant pushback from Biden after the last election confirmed the lack of spirit. Furthermore, the refusal or disinclination of anyone to rally to the cause of the Jan 6 political prisoners sent a message to potential troublemakers: you are on your own.
Fundamentally, the election is irrelevant. The issue at stake is managed decline. Trump offers the possibility of applying a degree of caution and common sense to decline, Harris the certainty of exponential progress to the same.
The pushback to election fraud will ultimately come from bond holders. An illegitimate regime can issue negotiable securities but financiers understand that gangsters cannot be trusted to honour their debts. Slowly, very slowly, America's trading partners and allies will look to reduce their exposure to US federal debt. As this process unfolds the regime will seek to consolidate the financial system through currency reform. Central bank digital currencies. Mark of the beast stuff.
As the US transforms into Greater California or New Lebanon foreigners with hard currency will snatch up assets. Rival regimes will buy out US institutions. Washington will partner with the Third World. The Global Majority diasporas and fifth columns within the US will mobilise to demand concessions/tribute.
[NB this was crossposted at
https://barsoom.substack.com/p/what-happens-when-the-regime-steals/comment/65970430]
Maybe, or maybe we’ll fight.
Trump is not just managed decline in terms of Empire, but rebirth of our nation at home, which is more important.
Harris may “win” on election night by er ah Fortified democracy, but she’s a steeper decline for DC… and rapidly.
The strength of America isn’t in government and certainly not DC, but the people. Not all nations are this way, we’re closer to England than say Russia or France that way.
Another example of a nation being the strength not the government- I give you- Ukraine.
Fight you certainly shall. The question is how soon.
If the regime had a lick of sense they would have done a deal instead of trying to blow Trump's head off. This is the political equivalent of suicide by cop. All they needed to offer up was perhaps Hilary and a few nobodies. Orange Hitler is now incentivised to go after real players for the sake of his continued health.
And the Children of Light got what they wanted so the Global Majority are spilling across an open border. The frontier never closes for long... it's been reopened for business under the wife's name and the Third World are homesteading.
But will the locals consider themselves enriched? If not, too bad. Once history gets the belt out it is too late to say that you are sorry.
The “American people” have changed beyond all recognition from the country’s halcyon days. Currently, ~45% of the under-18 age cohort is white, trending down. By century’s end the country will be 30-35% white.
Many things might be predicted of such a state, but that its institutions or mores might resemble the previous version of America is not among them.
My statement stands as to our Federated nature.
America has been a series of Federations from the Iroquois Confederation to the Internet and all in between. This is organic.
Probably eternal no matter who is here, the Iroquois are not White.
And while being White myself, who exactly did all this?
Wilson, FDR, LBJ, Reagan and their staff? Groton, Harvard, Yale aren’t white enough for you?
Buttrieg isn’t white?
I suppose you might add Lincoln, I’ll add Jackson, the Bill Clinton of his day, except Brave.
Who now howls for our blood and then merely unleashes non white criminals and lunatics on us?
Whites. College educated whites. Above all, indeed the rest just stare in disgust.
Why should any care if we don’t defend ourselves? They can’t help us anyway.
Who is a greater enemy than our white women by numbers?
Who above all is WEAKER than White Men? That all these ills befall us and nothing but sniveling? Cowards.
Cowards SHOULD PERISH.
Regardless of skin tone.
It’s shameful. Be glad you pass.
Clearly we’ve grown sickly and need to cull our herd.
I don’t CARE how it “looks” I care how it IS.
Was thinking of linking that John Carter piece myself. Perspicacious as usual -- but beside the point. So what if the Dems pull another 2020? As you correctly note, "Fundamentally, the election is irrelevant. The issue at stake is managed decline." Mr. Carter -- bless his sweet Canadian heart -- still believes we can wrest the helm from (now black-casted Jamaican woman) Captain Ahab and turn this ship around; give up our chase of the Moby Dick Progressive utopia. We cannot. And even if we could, there is no tranquil harbor in sight. The Dems are correct when they chant, "We are not going back!" The only way out is through.
And it's gonna be rough. The GAE is losing the war over Ukraine. All the PR in the world does not offset a 5-1 ratio in manpower and artillery firing, which the Russkies now enjoy along the entire front. Speaking of PR, the Kursk incursion was 'successful' in that regard. It embarrassed Moscow and gave Ukraine cheerleaders in the West something to crow about. But strategically? Everyone involved will be KIA / captured within a month. And "very few" Russian troops have been diverted from the primary battle line to deal with it.
No one in Washington -- let alone the reviled usurper Trump, nor the tipsy VP bimbo Harris -- has any idea what to do about the Ukraine situation (besides fork over government contracts to Raytheon, etc., which was gonna happen anyway). They're floundering. So it doesn't matter who's in the White House, per Will Schryver from earlier this month ( https://substack.com/home/post/p-147109269?source=queue ):
"Donald J. Trump is not destined to be the savior of the American Republic. In the first place, there is no American Republic to save. There is only a rapidly crumbling empire led by clueless fools who cannot see the writing on the wall, and who could not interpret it even if they could.
"Trump, if elected, will twist in the ever-changing winds of perceived exigency, and will ultimately be persuaded by his hand-picked entourage of imbeciles to make a series of ill-advised decisions that will lead to a shocking American military defeat and an unprecedented devaluation of the US dollar that will collapse the purchasing power of the overwhelming majority of Americans.[...]
"A Kamala Harris presidency will lead to all the same places a Trump presidency would lead, just with more drag queens, rainbow flags, and social upheaval."
I get the impression that the invasion in Kursk is turning out much worse for Ukraine than expected.
They suffered considerable losses with the invasion. And those troops and equipment could have been better used elsewhere. But that part - however foolish - was expected.
The trouble is that they now need to keep that area occupied. So they need to keep sending in supplies, equipment and people while Russia keeps bombing both the supply lines and the positions in the Kursk area. In addition Russia is also bombing Ukraine's Sumy region from which those supplies come.
So Russia has ceded a very thinly populated area and has now a shooting range where it can weaken the Ukrainian army.
The population density in the Kursk Oblast is 37.5 people per. sq. km. There are no militarily
significant installations there except perhaps the Kursk WW2 museum with tons of blown up
and captured German equipment. This looks more like a PR stunt trading lives for Western aid. The
Russians have the luxury of time to address it militarily as it is an inconsequential region and the
Ukrainian advances have been largely blunted with standoff weapons. They reportedly haven't sent
in the regular army relying primarily on national guard troops with a smattering of special forces.
This may however be pure spin, though it would be one hell of a training exercise for second echelon troops.
Iran is quite capable of retaliating with devastating force. Israel is trying to save face, not their opponents. The clock is ticking for the Zionist project. Either Israel calms down or they disappear from the map. With Russian SA 400 (and perhaps SA 500) ground-to-air systems now in place, the ability of Israel to strike Iran has been massively complicated...even with US assistance. But on the other hand, Israel's Swiss Cheese Dome will not protect them from what Iran is planning to send their way. I predict Iran will simply obliterate one of Israel's intelligence gathering bases. And time is on Iran's side. They are in no hurry. Don't believe me? Wait and watch. No explanations will be necessary. PS: We can't save Israel.
An appropriate response from Iran would be to assassinate a high ranking Israeli official. But they didn't invest enough to pull it off. So ballistic missiles it shall be...
Iran is not into gratuitously killing civilians (unlike Israel). They will target and destroy a military target. Any Israelis within said target are fair game.
🤣
'Legitimate' targets include the military. You're naive if you believe this conflict won't involve the killing of Israeli civilians.
“We” 🇺🇸 may not be able to betray Israel either.
Which BTW has 200-400 nuclear weapons… and the Jericho missiles to get them to Iran. Or anywhere actually.
Iran has zero, and thousands of artillery rockets, some of which will get through, not enough.
The best hope for Iran is the US State Department…. But this may not work much longer.
The BBC Arabic service reported a short while ago (maybe a week) that the man who had led the Hizbollah negotiating team in talks with the US admitted that Obama Administrstion had leaked militarily sensitive information about Israel to them. This has apparently been confirmed by Lebanese officials.
I doubt that there would be too many US allies incapable of appreciating this. For a country that relies on alliance structures this is very ill thought-out indeed.
The most fun you can have as an American right now is to make sure that you tell people that you never vote as part of any political conversation.
🎣
"I never vote."
*angry screaming*
"Ok fine you've convinced me. It's important to vote. Trump it is."
US Election will be rigged again this year as it was in 2020 so it will be President Harris. The US will never have another honest, real general election.
I doubt that will be necessary, although if the establishment needs to resort to fraud, they surely will.