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I don't think so. My prediction is big casualties in Gaza and maybe West Bank, skirmishes on the northen border. Israelis will eventually say all the hostages were either killed or returned, and that they've killed Hamas leadership.
Nasrallah will probably follow in the footsteps of every other Arab leader, making verbal support for Hamas but not getting entangled in anything too risky. I'd imagine that most of the action going on right now in the Middle East is classified and done by spies and Special Forces.
We are at a point where the decision is either to permit the Zionist entity to ethnically cleanse the remaining Palestinians or intervene and cause WWIII. I will not be surprised if Hezbollah strikes along with the rest of the resistance axis.
Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo
What is in it for him? What are costs, risks, benefits? To him? To his organization? Does Iran want him to do it? Can they compel him to even if he doesn't want to? What does he know, or think he knows, about Israeli capabilities? What does he know, or think he knows, about how well or poorly Israel is performing in Gaza? What is the actual state of his own capabilities? What is his perception of his capabilities? What is risk if does NOT act, as he perceives it? How much autonomy does he have? Who else inside or outside of his organization has an influence on his decision making? How coordinated are Hamas and Hezbollah and other potential enemies of Israel? Is there actual coordination or just spasmodic attacks along the same axis? What can he realistically expect to accomplish by open warfare? What does he think he can do?
And that is just the known unknowns.
And the unknown unknowns may be even bigger.
No way to make predictions here unless you have genuine domain expertise in the region, and an awareness of the players and their motives.
Nonetheless, I will venture a pure guess that Hezbollah will remain in a mainly harassing mode rather taking on the risk of a full scale war, at least for the next few days.
One angle I have not heard discussed is direct Israeli retaliation against Iran. That is the source of the problem. Gaza is poor as dirt. It cannot afford any military capabilities at all. Iran pays for everything. At some point Israel may decide to punish Iran.
Hopefully Israel crushes Hamas so thoroughly and without their usual hesitancy and half-assedness that others will think twice before entering the fray.
I also obtained some super duper top secret military intel from the future that covers some of the financial, psychological, and other aspects of the conflict, for anyone interested.
I’d like to recommend The Martyrmade Podcast by Daryl Cooper. It is about ~20 hours long and I am ~5 hours in.
It covers the start of Zionism in the early 1900s and ends with the establishment of Israel in 1948. It looks at the perspectives of both the Jews and the Arabs fairly evenly; the Jews get more time as they were more active, while the Arabs were more reactive.
This all started much differently than I imagined. Daryl asks thought provoking questions and asks you to consider perspectives you might not have otherwise.
I don’t think anyone can think in black and white terms after learning the history of this conflict. You can still take sides, sure, but there is darkness to be found within each side. It is a story of two peoples, each fighting for their existence, and willing to do absolutely anything to achieve their goals.
Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023Liked by Niccolo Soldo
I don't know if the war will expand beyond Gaza. But I was struck today by the truth of the title of Steve Marriott's piece in The Times today: 'You Don't Need to Share Your Views on Gaza'.
The bald fact is that Israel has been fighting for its existence for 70+ years. And the Arabs have never at any time accepted its existence. Weeks - in fact decades - of commentary about negotiated 'solutions' etc etc is (and has always been) just politico and media blah blah. Yes, the Israelis have handled some things better than other things but whatever they did (or did not) do - nor whoever was in government or not - would have altered that fundamental (and intractable) impasse.
The awful truth is that, for Western publics and commentariats who don't have to actually fight them, wars have long since become another grim part of the media entertainment industry....like gripping horror movies and with the same insatiable audience appetite.
If you’re going to fight someone you don’t talk about it you just do it. This will be akin to the outside of the pub at closing time where the guy knows his mates will hold him back and he is safe and secure in screaming all manner of dire threats that come to nothing.
Someone wrote somewhere that Israel would pay Egypt’s debt if they take the people from the strip. It’s an entertaining thought that objectively would make decent sense for everyone but the franchise managers in Europe. I’m sure Egypt would promptly ship the newcomers over to our neck of woods.
I guess the main thrust of the speech will be that he considers the latest beatles release “acceptable” but hezbollah will declare war if they should attempt to unearth further demos which are not of sufficient quality.
Hit the like button at the top of this page to like this entry. Use the share and/or re-stack buttons to share this across social media. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so (be nice!). And don't forget to subscribe if you haven't done so already.
The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah . . .
If he's anything like Lindsey Graham, with his personal safety not on the line, that's an easy call to make.
I don't think so. My prediction is big casualties in Gaza and maybe West Bank, skirmishes on the northen border. Israelis will eventually say all the hostages were either killed or returned, and that they've killed Hamas leadership.
Nasrallah will probably follow in the footsteps of every other Arab leader, making verbal support for Hamas but not getting entangled in anything too risky. I'd imagine that most of the action going on right now in the Middle East is classified and done by spies and Special Forces.
I have no clue about how things will go, but will add that back in 07-08 the War Nerd said Hezbollah was more military capable than Israel.
We are at a point where the decision is either to permit the Zionist entity to ethnically cleanse the remaining Palestinians or intervene and cause WWIII. I will not be surprised if Hezbollah strikes along with the rest of the resistance axis.
What is in it for him? What are costs, risks, benefits? To him? To his organization? Does Iran want him to do it? Can they compel him to even if he doesn't want to? What does he know, or think he knows, about Israeli capabilities? What does he know, or think he knows, about how well or poorly Israel is performing in Gaza? What is the actual state of his own capabilities? What is his perception of his capabilities? What is risk if does NOT act, as he perceives it? How much autonomy does he have? Who else inside or outside of his organization has an influence on his decision making? How coordinated are Hamas and Hezbollah and other potential enemies of Israel? Is there actual coordination or just spasmodic attacks along the same axis? What can he realistically expect to accomplish by open warfare? What does he think he can do?
And that is just the known unknowns.
And the unknown unknowns may be even bigger.
No way to make predictions here unless you have genuine domain expertise in the region, and an awareness of the players and their motives.
Nonetheless, I will venture a pure guess that Hezbollah will remain in a mainly harassing mode rather taking on the risk of a full scale war, at least for the next few days.
One angle I have not heard discussed is direct Israeli retaliation against Iran. That is the source of the problem. Gaza is poor as dirt. It cannot afford any military capabilities at all. Iran pays for everything. At some point Israel may decide to punish Iran.
Hopefully Israel crushes Hamas so thoroughly and without their usual hesitancy and half-assedness that others will think twice before entering the fray.
I also obtained some super duper top secret military intel from the future that covers some of the financial, psychological, and other aspects of the conflict, for anyone interested.
https://open.substack.com/pub/socraticpsychiatrist/p/a-briefing-from-hamas-headquarters?r=44y4c&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
I’d like to recommend The Martyrmade Podcast by Daryl Cooper. It is about ~20 hours long and I am ~5 hours in.
It covers the start of Zionism in the early 1900s and ends with the establishment of Israel in 1948. It looks at the perspectives of both the Jews and the Arabs fairly evenly; the Jews get more time as they were more active, while the Arabs were more reactive.
This all started much differently than I imagined. Daryl asks thought provoking questions and asks you to consider perspectives you might not have otherwise.
I don’t think anyone can think in black and white terms after learning the history of this conflict. You can still take sides, sure, but there is darkness to be found within each side. It is a story of two peoples, each fighting for their existence, and willing to do absolutely anything to achieve their goals.
I don't know if the war will expand beyond Gaza. But I was struck today by the truth of the title of Steve Marriott's piece in The Times today: 'You Don't Need to Share Your Views on Gaza'.
The bald fact is that Israel has been fighting for its existence for 70+ years. And the Arabs have never at any time accepted its existence. Weeks - in fact decades - of commentary about negotiated 'solutions' etc etc is (and has always been) just politico and media blah blah. Yes, the Israelis have handled some things better than other things but whatever they did (or did not) do - nor whoever was in government or not - would have altered that fundamental (and intractable) impasse.
The awful truth is that, for Western publics and commentariats who don't have to actually fight them, wars have long since become another grim part of the media entertainment industry....like gripping horror movies and with the same insatiable audience appetite.
The hatred is massive and mutual. Hatred is baked into the cake; children are taught to hate the other side. Children!
Apartheid is the answer.
To end the killing one side must win and the other side physically withdraw. Is that what the two state solution means?
The whole world is Israel now.
If you’re going to fight someone you don’t talk about it you just do it. This will be akin to the outside of the pub at closing time where the guy knows his mates will hold him back and he is safe and secure in screaming all manner of dire threats that come to nothing.
Someone wrote somewhere that Israel would pay Egypt’s debt if they take the people from the strip. It’s an entertaining thought that objectively would make decent sense for everyone but the franchise managers in Europe. I’m sure Egypt would promptly ship the newcomers over to our neck of woods.
War will expand.
Israel is evil, murdering Palestinians for nearly 100 years, it is pariah.
Entering the conflict is moral, to save innocents.
However, going in will involve the greatest purveyor of war crimes, the US,
Likely coordinate with Iran.
Iran likely better prepared in 10 years.
Limited with false flagged by USA who see sooner better than later when iUSA is weaker vis a vis the resistance.
I guess the main thrust of the speech will be that he considers the latest beatles release “acceptable” but hezbollah will declare war if they should attempt to unearth further demos which are not of sufficient quality.
>nothing ever happens