I am currently slaving away at new interviews, new entries for the series on “Whiteness and America”, and even more essays on all matters of interest to myself and all of you, I think it would be a good idea to have another Open Thread for the community to dive into.
Being an Open Thread, you can bring up anything you want here, but I am certain that the new conflict between Israel and Hamas will be of the most interest (it always is) to you guys. The Fog of War is incredibly thick, and the propaganda from all sides is relentless. Such is war.
First, a map:
As of last night, some 100,000 Palestinians remain in the north of Gaza (the evacuation area indicated on the map above), with some 500,000 already relocating to the southern part of the Strip. Biden is in Israel, meaning that the IDF has had to postpone (or maybe it’s just an excuse?) their invasion. Word is that the Israelis also fear Hezbollah opening up a second front in the north once the IDF moves into Gaza. In parallel, US Secretary of State Blinken held a 7.5 hour long meeting with the Israeli War Council, no doubt offering support but also setting some guidelines to protect American diplomatic interests.
I have no comment to add on the bombing of the hospital in Gaza as I have not yet looked into it.
No one wants to take in the Palestinians from Gaza. An Egyptian official straight up told a European counterpart that if they were forced into Egypt, the Egyptians would just send them to Europe, as per FT:
In a report from the Financial Times detailing the Egyptian government’s growing fear of a potential massive refugee crisis, an unnamed official reportedly said he would send 1 million Palestinian refugees to Europe if they were forced out of Gaza.
According to the Financial Times, a senior Egyptian official told a European counterpart: “You want us to take 1mn people? Well, I am going to send them to Europe. You care about human rights so much — well you take them.”
Jordan doesn’t want them either, and with good reason; “Black September” was not that long ago:
Other neighboring Arab states, many of whom already have substantial Palestinian refugee populations such as Jordan, are also rejecting taking in more Palestinian refugees.
“That is a red line,” King Abdullah II, who rules Jordan, told journalists, “I think that is the plan by certain of the usual suspects to try and create issues on the ground.”
“There will be no refugees in Jordan and no refugees in Egypt,” he said.
Should the Palestinians leave Gaza, they almost certainly will not be allowed to return there.
Muslim solidarity is on the rise again across the world, and the USA needs to tread very, very carefully between its stated responsibility to protect Israel and its own geopolitical interests vis a vis the Islamic world.
On a very related note, a Congressional Commission has released a report urging the USA to prepare for a two-front conflict with both Russia and China:
A recent US Congress report urges a strategic defensive posture review of simultaneous near-peer conventional and nuclear threats.
This month, the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the US released a report urging the country to be prepared for a two-front conflict against China and Russia.
The report says that US defense strategy and strategic posture must change to properly defend its vital interests and improve strategic stability with the two nuclear-armed adversaries while advocating that critical decisions should be made now to address nuclear threats expected to arise during the 2027-2035 timeframe.
It also assessed that the US needs to address the looming nuclear threat with a comprehensive strategy and force structure adjustments. Although it says the fundamentals of US deterrence strategy remain sound, size and composition adjustments are needed to its nuclear capabilities.
This is not to say that this two-front conflict will happen, but it does indicate that the Americans are now concerned about, which is funny as they are the cause of this very same condition.
I wrote about the danger of a two-front conflict back in March of last year. This essay was received very positively by readers. Check it out:
I then followed it up with this essay from March of this year:
Russia has been very quiet regarding the conflict in Gaza, and its call at the UN for a ceasefire was soundly defeated at the UN Security Council. China insists on Palestinian statehood, but is not making big sounds either.
The world is at war, and the flames are threatening to engulf whole regions.
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In this conflict, Israelis win because their ethnostate gets more secure demographically and geographically, Islam wins because more of its faithful soldiers move to infidel lands, and Europe wins because it gets even more diverse. Win, win, win!