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The graphic is for illustrative purposes and is not comprehensive. I will not get drawn into debate about 'what goes where', sorry to disappoint ;)
Re: chart - I am not very skilled at creating graphics, so I did the best that I could. I wish I had better skills, as I would have created a horizontal spectrum that would have allowed for better placement and multiple placements for some names.
I could have written a 30,000 word piece on this subject, but this will have to do for now. There are a lot of open spaces for naysayers to exploit, but that is natural for a medium-sized piece covering so much ground.
After reading your reasoning and purpose, the chart made perfect sense to me.
The bulk of institutions/people are systemically aligned even if the color of the their jacket is red or blue, the elites take care of their own, plus the system is set up to perpetuate itself through a continued pipeline of elites.
The populace below the elite level is divided like pawns so they cannot provide a cohesive counter point to the overwhelming systemic presence in their life. Without sufficient elite leaders of their own they will continue to be marginalized in favor of voters who are happy to participate in the charade of taxing and voting.
I get a lot of criticism for this stance. For example, the Marxists believe that I am purposely overlooking the working class, to which I reply: they are simply not organized to be effective.
The US elites are unique in the developed world in their success in demobilising the masses. This is the greatest piece of statecraft in the 20th c., perhaps the only truly original achievement of US politics.
The working classes are about to face a challenge neither the 'Left' nor 'Right' will ever fight: a BIPOC-heavy elite created in best crony capitalist style by preferential finance (aka the Cantillon effect) which is being institutionalised by way of the new mandate for the Federal Reserve.
1] putting the Americans in the Black Box is inspired Genius. I'm in that Black Box and even I don't know what's in here.
2] It's as if the Population of Switzerland was given the government and Elites of the Balkans, or Lebanon. As is commonly proffered and it's probably true if you switched the Lebanese with the Swiss Beirut would be Geneva and Geneva would explode. What's new in history is we have the Lebanese government over an essentially Swiss population.
The final result is unknown.
I'm going to add a caution to Philip: all that he says is true, but what's true is we know now, and we didn't know before. Hence uncertain outcome.
Your caution is duly noted and well-taken. Uncertainty is baked in the cake. The future will most likely surprise all of us. The best we can do is apply our reason as best we can and acknowledge that every trend inevitably reaches an inflection point.
Your comment about the elites touches a nerve. The 'Swiss' of North America are stuck with a fast-evolving elite that will be more ruthless (and less competent) than their Lebanese or Balkan peers and entirely berefit of public spirit or concern fior the welfare of the 'Swiss': a North American elite that incorporates a substantial BIPOC element within both the oligarchy itself and the sub-oligarchic strata of professionals. This element was created by affirmative action and preferential contracting and now stands to benefit from preferential access to finance (aka the Cantillon effect) which is being institutionalised by way of the new mandate for the Federal Reserve. The BIPOC and immigrant element of the elite will be able to rely upon the social and cultural prestige conferred by multiculturalism, any number of legally enforceable privileges and economic policies crafted to promote racial equity.
In return for this, the BIPOC/immigrant element within both the oligarchy and the professional and managerial class will vigorously defend the class interests of the wider elite...and they will be unconstrained by any shared culture or history with the masses and supersensitive to insult, to say nothing of the threat of populism. The minority will police the attitudes of their peers and will fortify the elite's contempt and fear of the masses.
My guess is that the inflection point will be reached when a significant proportion of the elite realise that they or their children are at risk of being displaced. The prospect of joining the 'Swiss' in their helot bantustans should motivate some creative thinking about politics. You can already see the very first stirrings of this in the piss-weak populism on offer from Tucker Carlson.
As ever very considered contribution by you. Great writing style. Methinks you are an elite outlier. no offence intended, as it is head down and keep quiet time in your country.
I am flattered. You could say that I have been elite-adjacent on and off, but failed to ever get recruited into any mafia and burnt one or two bridges. A colleague once told me that I frightened them. They never knew what I might say next and, consequently, would not know how to respond. This is flattering, but to be honest I would have sold my soul in a heartbeat.
When my Righty friends say there will be a civil war, I tell them that if there is it will last a few days and will consist of arrests of Righties too stupid to lie low. It will be a "civil war" the way that Stalin's purge was a civil war, the government eliminating anyone who could be a troublemaker. There is nothing that can stand up to the regime, which is more aware of threats than any government in history, which reads all electronic communications, and which knows precisely who could possibly cause any problems. The regime will continue to push its boot firmly and steadily downward on the throats of the proles, who cannot and will not do anything about it.
Oct 7, 2022·edited Oct 7, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
Exactly. Every regime eventually ends. Sometimes the forms are maintained. USA seems to be transitioning more to a permanent oligarchy with ritualized democratic activity that doesn’t have any substantive meaning. There would have to be catastrophic economic failures, and possibly military defeat or disaster that actually touched the American people, before the existing elites would be threatened. Since I live here I don’t wish that on myself!
Haha, you need to read more. Real disasters look MUCH WORSE than this. Mass starvation; entire navies on fire, sinking; millions of desperate people on the move. The USA is not remotely in that condition yet.
You are adding mass starvation and navies on fire.
But war and economic disaster are on us now, they just need time to work for your specifications.
Moreover, and you can read up on it at no point did conditions as you lay out cause revolution. Revolutions are caused by Revolutionary groups and organizations that may move because of disastrous rule or take advantage of the disasters but the view that suffering = revolution isn't true.
Popular but a myth.
The Irish in 1847 did not revolt.
I can go on at length.
Revolutions or real movements happen during well fed upswings and times of rising expectations.
Revolutions require organizations but they also are very caloric intensive.
No, nothing remotely as bad as what can and probably will happen has happened yet here. It is going to be like the 30s, the 40s, mass arrests, arbitrary power, broken skulls, cops breaking down the doors, millions dead, global depression, real, hard, no-fucking-around tyranny. The real shit. We are living in paradise compared to what’s coming.
You misunderstand me. I didn’t say there would be a revolution. I said there can’t be a revolution. You can’t have a revolution where any possible revolutionary organization exists in a bright spot light reviewed by the intelligence services at all times. It is going to get very bad, but it’s not gonna be possible to shake off this elite. Only way it can happen is if things get so bad that some factions within the elite break away and try to take over, in which case there will be a surface appearance of a revolution. But it will just be an elite factional struggle. The days of mass revolutions ended with the era of mass electronic surveillance.
The level of devastation was such as to make rebellion impossible. The European styled Young Ireland did an opera buffo raid which collapsed in fiasco. Many died, more left and opposition transitioned to oath bound secret societies e.g Fenians, which became the truly revolutionary IRB, which begat Collins, all seven murdered signatories of Independence Proclamation of 1916. The success of the Land League in Land Wars was backed up by what IRB would do to traitors. Boycotts were underpinned by guns.
Do you think the ultra forceful raids on Christian inspired abortion protesters by heavily armed FBI goons is trial run to see how far regime can go against ANY opposition. Allied to the Mar Lago raid and overkill on J6 people it would appear so.
To give credit where credit is due, the regime has a degree of confidence, assurance and political realism that deserves a degree of respect.
The Left, the Ton Ton Macoute of Turbo-America, has more than enough energy to successfully constrain the Right. The Right have played the role of controlled opposition for so long that they cannot function as a viable alternative. The working class have been crushed, the middle has no agency and is a shrinking proportion of the population. The Left can ethnically-cleanse major cities and open the borders to recruit a replacement population. The Left can kill MAGA supporters without so much as a police investigation (as we saw in Portland).
The Right's only achievement has been to minimise the impact of Covid lockdowns...they are now transitioning into their next role as the governing element of the Red Bantustans, the Cracker Ghettoes, of the future. Barring a deus ex machina, the Left looks set to define the future.
A regime that could claim legitimacy until 2 years ago, indeed 47 months ago as the primary stabilizing quality has tossed that away.
It's one thing to pull off a successful fraud, it's another to hang around when it's discovered.
No, there's no right-wing militia and the Left are owned by Finance.
On the other hand, there's no loyalty in this system below middle management at best, and even our middle managers are cowards who couldn't change a tire and have never been in a fight.
This is the USSR in the 1980s. It probably wants to be the CCP in the 1980s, but it's crushing the economy and telling the police and military that they, they are personally evil, and their families are the mortal enemy, evil incarnate.
Mind you it was always the opinion of some that if the DDR had given the order to open fire they'd still be around. What's unknown is if the Vopos would have obeyed.
There were probably more true believing socialists behind the wall even in 1989 then there are American Elites with real believing loyalty to this system, one they'd sacrifice for, suffer for, die for, kill for.
All excellent points...however, I'd suggest that we are in uncharted waters. The population of North America is aging, typically overweight and stoned...the proles of East Germany were in way better condition and vastly more sophisticated in their political thinking. The aging ex-commies of East Germany would have some interesting perspectives on the present condition of the US.
My perspective is that we should plan for the worst (regime survival), maintain a fair bit of scepticism about liberation narratives and retain just enough hope to save ourselves from despair. Apart from that, kick back and maintain your good humour as best you can.
My best guess is that we shall see a comic-opera horror show as Clown World burns. A brothel on fire would be more dignified. Unfortunately, the whole thing will involve cruelty and a good many decent people will get hurt in the mayhem...as many already have been.
But how many became even a little bit more realistic as a result of their experiences? When ethno-masochism bites on the psyche, it does so very hard. Feminised men ending up with the psyches of women in love with men who beat them ('but he loves me!...he'll change!!...this time it's different!!!'). It is all par for the course in a culture where best practice in child-rearing is breast-binding and castration.
Re the improvement of higher education, that would be too much to hope for.
Oct 7, 2022·edited Oct 7, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
Good article. I’ve seen you and Tinkzorg bantering back and forth a bit on Twitter about decline and collapse; I think a second interview with him here to explore those ideas would be a great read. Especially for those of us who are on the fence about the subject.
Maybe the best critique of the hollowness of the Atlanticist elite is that I have no doubt that I can get far less insight from them than I can from a debate between a brown Swedish gamer and a Croat bike thief.
A very good piece, Niccolo. It makes sense for any society to prioritise trust. However, the oligarchs do not need a high trust society. The need a low trust one, because this reduces the risk of successful mass opposition. The ruinous social and economic costs of a low trust society can be passed on to the masses. This is not a failure of the system, it is a central feature of it.
It's one thing to have a psychotic in a dress insisting he's a woman, it's another to tell the Leopard his spots are stripes. There's a lot of Leopards out there...
We'll know the game is up when the top players (or their kids/cronies) get sacrificed. At the moment there are signs of panic...Elon Musk's enthusiasm for a negotiated peace is proof of that. A decisive and unambiguous Russian victory could very easily set off a collapse in the financial markets. The politicians are thorough trash, but the oligarchs have the brain-power to figure out that a winter war is now a few months away. [re war, this is a must read -
Nordstream was a blue-water Rubicon...the unintended signal was of profound desperation. The British sunk the Danish fleet because they feared invasion during the Napoleonic wars...Biden is simply worried about the mid-terms. Only an utter imbecile would believe that sabotage of that kind was a power move of any kind, but Biden has the largest collection of imbeciles in US history to advise him: Austin, Sullivan and Blinken, to name just three. It is very close to feeding time for the leopards.
I say that as matters stand, we are headed for direct war with Russia, all the steps of the template are being taken. I have watched or participated in same since the 1990s.
If I can see it the Russians can.
I don't think the Russians will wait.
Indeed, not only are they at war already with us in their mindset they have gotten out of the waiting / react to us game.
The partly pre-emptive attack into the Donbass in February shows they are done reacting.
Are we ready?
No, not really.
I also say I think we'll also have a Civil War in America because the Elites want one, when I saw the Green Zone in DC I knew. That's also the consensus of the other Combat Overseas Veterans who went to DC. Seeing is believing, and these aren't political people. If you saw the Green Zone in Baghdad and then the one in DC, you have the entire script. So far DC continues to needle us just as they needled the Iraqis until they exploded - mind you they went to war with us faster. That's because there were many organizations in place to do so and an ample supply of weapons and trained men who were out of work.
Remember war has been good to the Decision makers. They don't fight and they got rich and powerful from war. They are behind private security who are former Special Ops, gated and alarmed facilities and houses and so on.
You are also correct about the desperation - but to them losing power is losing life, why not throw it all up in the air and roll the Iron Dice?
War has never been bad to them.
It's a socialized cost with privatized profits like everything else.
If nuclear they're in bunkers.
When they come out, they'll still be on top.
It's Win, Win.
===========
In related news Amazon has Potassium Iodine tablets cheap and has Prussian Blue as well. My entire order $93.
I wish that I could disregard what you write but I can't. At heart we all want the same thing...unqualified reassurance (as priests, salesmen and whores have always understood). But you are right and I must defer to your experience and instinct. They are sociopathic...have enough personal experience with serious decisionmakers to understand how the West is governed and by what types. The hormonal thrill of power is intoxicating...you can see it on the faces and in the behaviours of the lifers in politics and their closest servitors. The social psychologies formed by our governing institutions (both public and private) select for sociopathy or for para-sociopathy. A sane person would run from them.
Thanks for the tip re Amazon. I live in a city that has some kind of civilian satellite signals infrastructure and the military have been developing an alternative set of headquarters away from their current ones (one or two suburbs away) for a while. Russian nuclear doctrine is explicit: decision-making centres are targets. Can't blame them one bit.
Definitely. You would have to be pretty close things to do any better than a guess. Typically, there would have to be multiple dimensions to any of it.
Biden is vulnerable, so too are plenty of the others all across the political spectrum. The prospect of Hunter getting charged sends very mixed messages. Biden is corrupt beyond words, but his protectors can disregard all relevant laws. This demoralises decent people, but it functions as an advertisement for the IC directed at key potential clients. The key players involved would love the power involved in holding such cards.
Biden is constrained by his corruption and his physical and mental condition. The exposure of corruption is a warning, but it also opens up all sorts of opportunities for the IC, should they ever need a scapegoat for the escalating disaster. At the moment, Biden remains useful, so Hunter has nothing to fear just yet...however, if I was a Biden family lawyer I'd have a pardon drawn up, signed and hidden away, just in case. This would not necessarily do Hunter much good IMHO. The nastiness in the Ukraine is depthless and Russia is definitely planning on exposing as much of it as possible. Hunter is useful now...under the right/wrong circumstances the IC would be much better off with him dead. The best scenario for Hunter is to take a fall on minor corruption charges, get a pardon from Dad while he can or at least co-operate by keeping his mouth shut so that the prosecution does not go for the throat.
The possibility of Hunter getting perp-walked thrills the MAGA crowd. No matter how much the elite despise the masses, they cannot ignore the need to maintain a raft of political options, simply for the sake of the system. There would have to be several factions within the oligarchy who may need to play the Trump card or, more to their taste, De Santos. Being dependent on the Democrats works for now, but the Democrats are too dependent on the African-American political machine and the costs involved are mounting fast. And nothing could do more for restoring the reputation of American justice than the pretence of prosecuting Hunter.
Finally, a Hunter B. trial could be one way of managing the wider narrative. The big picture is China. Charging Hunter on Ukrainian stuff might allow the FBI and Justice to misdirect attention away from more serious matters. Trials are theatrical...Hunter's would be the trial of the century and would create many opportunities for all sorts of mischief. It is all insane...a fitting denouement for Clown World...which will be followed by Clown World Redivivus. Many of the true villains are trying to play the long game.
I'm liking it. Doesn't this version of Elite Theory and global US empire/Turbo America tie in nicely with Fukuyama's End of History thesis that there is no alternative to liberal democracy out there in the world today - Dick Hanananania basically posited your Turbo America through Fukuyama recently - i'd be interested to hear your response. Uncle Yarvin also points this out - US empire ain't going anywhere soon because of Elite Theory as you describe and there is no alternative to turn to - Russia is off the table if it was ever on the table and China is more and more knee capping itself - who else is there to turn to?
I don't think that the universal adoption of western liberal democracy is in the cards, especially as it is having systemic issues in the West. An authoritarian state-driven capitalism has become quite popular elsewhere.
Honestly can’t believe I’m saying this but the stability of authoritarian state-driven capitalism is comforting when you look around at the rest of the world.
You are not alone, I can assure you. Regimes that have a demonstrated interest in the success and welfare of their people and the continuity of their culture have an obvious attraction, so long as they are not too heavy handed or obnoxiously ideological.
People in the West who cannot expect much from their own regimes will come to appreciate the better features of the competing systems. The middle and working classes, constrained by the oligarchs and the professional-managerial classes above them and harassed by the crime and violence of the underclass, form the natural constituency for authoritarian state-driven capitalism.
I did not write that the peoples of the West will successfully imitate any of the political projects now emerging elsewhere. A very great deal of effort will be applied to ensure that they don't. Those who pay too close an attention to such matters will have to emigrate or risk a visit from the anti-extremist taskforce.
I hear ya but most those authoritarian state-driven capitalist states (Canada, Indonesia, Tanzania) like to pretend to be western liberal multi-party democracies - they don't pretent to be Putin's Russia or Xi's China...
Somehow doubt Indonesia or Tanzania are pretending to be western anything. But there’s a huge huge gap between Canada’s government and the authoritarian government Im most familiar with. They can’t be compared.
I was joking around a bit comparing Canada and Tanzania - cheap shot - I have no idea what Indonesia is up to but Tanzania's government and elites actually do try to show themselves as a modern, western, respects human rights, multiparty democracy, etc. making progress towards a prosperous state within the cultural heritage of Africa, etc.
Ringo, I fully agree with you that Turbo America is here to stay, but I disagree about Russia.
As I see it, Turbo America looks set to reign triumphant over the Americas, Oceania and Antarctica. The current putrid and hateful Sado-Malthusian regime will flourish in one form or another long after Biden has gone to Hell, even as the American people become accustomed to a standard of living closer to that of the developing world.
But Turbo America cannot establish control over Eurasia. Russia in partnership with China, Turkey, Iran and India can and will constrain Turbo America. The Russians have the military capacity to make the skies of Eurasia a Yankee-free zone and they have submarines that can outperform the US ones. The Anglo-American advantage in combat avionics and aerospace is history, as is the naval supremacy. Turbo America will simply invest heavily in full spectrum narrative-mgt to cover up news from the rest of the world.
It depends on who you believe. I suggest that you start reading Andrei Martyanov to set you straight about the relative capacities of the US and Russian militaries. Martyanov ran a research lab in aeronautics in the US.
Russian military has great capacity - but can it execute - I will make no predictions how this will end but the russian military hasn't exactly shown great competence to this point - even with help from the US they should have been able to do a lot better a lot quicker against Ukraine with the resources they have...
Ringo, you are wise not to make predictions. However, if you are interested in pursuing the q. of why they have taken their time, this piece will explain it brilliantly. https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means
“Every single one of you reading this right now is, like me, a news junkie … knowledge is what helps us navigate through life, often giving us competitive advantages over others to help us secure more resources for ourselves and for those reliant upon us.”
How do we take advantage of this knowledge? This is an open question to everyone. Yes, I am shamelessly hijacking this article to seek advice, but if we do not make use of the knowledge we gain, what is the purpose of having it?
I’ll share a couple ideas in replies to this message. Though take anything I say critically: while I feel like an old man with a measure of experience and credibility, most people say to me, “Andrew, you’re not old! You’re only 24!”
The elites use methods accessible to anyone with disposable income (financial markets and real estate) to accrue wealth. It is in their best interest for these to grow over the long term; they will fight to prop them up in spite of any financial problems the United States may have. Sure, many things can go wrong, but if you stick to reputable ETFs or America’s top companies, you’ll be okay in the long run
Salary growth may be slowing down in the US but they are still far higher than they are elsewhere. If you can take that salary to Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, or South America, you can maintain a relatively good quality of life while saving thousands
This does not apply to many people: some cannot work remotely, some have families they cannot easily move, others simply don’t want to deal with the hassle— but if you can, it can be both financially rewarding as well as culturally rewarding
US might go after Saudi Arabia next. Biden has hinted support for the NOPEC Act. Serious analysts are against it but the American liberal class wants to punish the Saudis for their tacit support of Russia. This is also one area where it's very easy to get the America First masses on board. US is very confident right now. Notwithstanding the unspoken alliance between the liberals and Islamists in the West against conservatives, American liberals still want the Pride Flag to fly high over Mecca.
No way...this is wish-fulfillment stuff on the part of the libs. The Deep State might attempt a coup by Langley's friends within the Al Sa'ud family, but this would be insanely risky. I very much doubt that the mafia clan within the Deep State that spawned the Obama Administration and controls the Biden one would attempt it, regardless of how much they hate MBS.
MBS successfully constrained the power of Langley's fifth column...the success he had in forcing the more corrupt princes to give up much of their wealth made him a hero to many Sa'udis and the killing of Kashoggji was a major power move, pure class in political terms, in that it signalled royal resolve in constraining the Muslim Brotherhood and its backers in the CIA.
It is definitely true in America, like so many places, the elites guard each other's backs. That's why you have lovefests between George W. Bush and Michelle Obama. The less said about both, the better.
But do you really need a large number of elites to overthrow a country? It strikes me it is not a numbers game, but the power of the person shut out. I would imagine that a system where the ruling class joins together to oust one group can lead to civil war, if that adversary had no alternative (was faced with ruin) and had enough savvy/charisma/resources to bring down the system. I don't think that Trump is even close to that class of individual - he is a huckster who often has the right policies but is personally offensive and shortsighted. But I think one person could take down the system - if they had enough military/popular support. Think Julius Caesar. The Senate united against him, refused to compromise, promised to ruin him -- and the elites in Rome got their asses handed to them.
I don’t at all see how America is an incredibly resilient country. The fundamentals by which the elite can perpetuate itself are becoming ever more exiguous. America is now essentially defined by porn and pot. Anyway, Mike Anton’s book “The Stakes” -- the last few chapters -- lays out how collapse, or transformation into a Brazilianified “blue” or left wing Caesar , is likely what’s in play.
Its very shaky to try to rule a foreign land who’s population you’ve made enemies with native troops- and I am referring to America and her alien Elites now.
Transform into...The East India Company? This bunch?
My Dear Nico these creatures are NOT the Raj. Biden is not Clive. Etc.
Good heavens, we ☘️ know something about the Anglo Imperialists.
As an American these elites are embarrassing at best, scary with nukes in truth.
Not saying it’s near. But that’s the telos if current trends continue. I live in LA. Grew up here. Today it’s a shithole. And you’re right, Brazil is nowhere near collapse. But it represents a level of 3rd world “dysfunctional functioning” that I do think many US elites want to achieve for the US. Why? Because justice (third world mass immigration, a vast slavish underclass, and a squeezed middle class) is more important than consent (as in consent of the governed).
You have to differentiate America from the government, which in its delusional mind is the American Headquarters of Global East India Company; totally serious.
You can't include rank and file anything there from military or police.
Or the workers in anything, or rank and file anything.
Holding your nose in disgust and hoping for clearer skies isn't loyalty.
In fairness I guess your chart is nearly all elites.
Let me ask this: if the Elite theory is applied to the following historical cases are the results the same?
Iran 1976
DDR 1986
Yugoslavia 1982.
Russian 1916.
Germany 1917
USSR 1986
Warsaw pact 1986
Lebanon right now. Are the Lebanese elites defecting?
I don't know. They've chosen sides of course, but are they locked in that hard?
I don't want to go all Marxist here but they tapped into something, and there was a lot more for example nationalist loyalty in the various socialist parties of 1916 to their respective warring nations then there's loyalty to this USA thing whatever it is...
You're also overlooking your own stated impact of a high trust society that has a sudden collapse in trust. In terms of reverence for the Constitution we were completely and perhaps still are worshipping the Holy Ghosts of the Founding. Let me put it another way - it's as if the society of the Wood Piling Swiss were suddenly being run and governed by the local police and government of the Balkans.
Now the Democrats and the alphabet soup you list above are held together mainly by swag, interest and money, the only other glue is FEAR of the small boxes, in particular the Black Box you have there for Trump.
The one achievement of this graphic that can never be taken away from you is making the Americans The Black Box in that Chart. Indeed we are, we are an opaque Black Box. Even we don't know what's in the Black Box, it may be nothing.....or it may be everything.
Nico if you swapped the populations of the Balkans and Switzerland the results would be identical - the Balkans would become Switzerland and Geneva would become the Balkans. What has happened here is your light blue elites have decided as a Hive Mind that were going to be some weird cross between Dubai [with them in the penthouse and us in the slums] and Eastern Europe in terms of our ancient liberties of a millennium [Anglo Saxon and other Germanic property laws and rights].
That Team Elite all agree that America should morph into Dubai is all very settled in their mind.
That they have the assent of the country is not.
Lebanon - which we are coming to resemble - was not a Switzerland that decayed into , well, Lebanon, it was Lebanon and the countryside came for the coast.
Oct 7, 2022·edited Oct 7, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
I'm writing from California, which is one giant golden goose, nestled inside the largest gaudiest golden goose in history, the US of muthafuckin A...so I absolutely agree that we are all wayyy too rich n fat for any kind of civil war (and from where I'm sitting what would that mean? A militia from Arizona invades Santa Monica, kills some surfers and bums, and then what? Wait the 10 mins it would take for an attack helicopter to incinerate them?)
But the one thing that flashes red for me is just the large and ever widening chasm bw the lifestyles and beliefs of our elite class and our average proles. It really does seem that our elite class loathes America and its people and thinks of it as more of a place to stash assets and send their kids to college, so they can acquire and stash more assets. Look at this clueless jackass saying the quiet part out loud:
But from their sudden inability to define "woman" to their Net Zero fantasy to their moral crusade to open the borders and open the jails, I would say at the very least that the elite class has very different ideas, values and goals than just about anyone outside their class, almost to the level of colonizer/colonized.
And I think once a country gets into Ancien Regime territory, some ugly future (whatever that may be) becomes more likely than not.
and god forbid if something ugly does go down (up to and including The Donald taking the oath of office in Jan 2025), people like him will never look in the mirror and accept any responsibility, they will just double-down on rube hating and buy a second (or third?) home somewhere in the mountains.
when even bland economists get in on Hating Whitey we are getting into some really dangerous territory.
I think it's worth considering that Trump unleashed hysteria which has contributed to the current dysfunction.
If we talk in terms of a kind of Western civil war (which is what I think it is) the war is essentially psychological and spiritual. I described it as such in Britain during the post-Brexit phase where people I knew stopped speaking to their own family members over politics which is virtually unheard of here. As a result I think violence and so on are going to be a final consequence of the war not the way in which it is fought i.e. the collapse (if it comes) will have been well-established before the first shots are fired.
The GAE runs on SSRIs and a particular type of feminine hysteria as we've seen during corona. There are any number of fragile young woke 'adults' who cannot survive without medication and a carefully-controlled political environment. Brexit and Trump were like bombs going off in their souls and they simply couldn't cope. Amusingly, it could even be the GAE's media that finishes them off by increasing the pressure through their deranged reporting.
What does this mean? That winning the war could be about sustained and repeated shocks to the GAE's psyche. It doesn't have to be rational it just has to unsettled them to the point where they descend into lunacy: this is already well underway with trans etc so it's not heard to imagine.
Secondly there is a serious shortage of the serious kind of men (and it is men) who are required to keep the 'golden goose', as another poster described, fed and watered. Things are starting to break down and this winter I think will do some serious damage. Europe will suffer and that will have consequences for the GAE which isn't having a thriller for the reasons you've mentioned. I wouldn't write off the Russians. The Chinese are thinking long and hard and are still very dangerous despite their own derangement in the form of corona. A good illustration of this is 'The Machine Stops' be EM Forster. If the cocoon around the wokes goes then so will much of their beliefs. One last question: how long would it take for 1950s sexual morality to return if the Pill factories closed and the abortion clinics were banned?
oh i agree completely, it is always some other set of rising elites or at least some section of the bourgeoisie locked out of power that lead all revolutions, and then the poor getting riled only comes after.
(I'm actually reading an interesting book about this now: "Fire in the Minds of Men Origins of the Revolutionary Faith" by James H. Billington)
But speaking from my corner of the world, which is mostly in the realm of culture (books, art, film etc): the New Left has just successfully seized the means of cultural production after a 50yr campaign, and now they've managed to solidify a Church/State ruling alliance with the global corporate state and the American permanent govt, so I don't see them retreating or being dethroned anytime soon.
Unless that throne was shaky to begin with, it is. In a Federation where the central government has essentially by swindling and deceit aggregated illegitimate powers to a unnatural central unitary government , the powers are never stable. DC is an an emergency government cobbled together for the Great Depression , WW2 and the Cold War. Its purpose has gone away.
This was always an unnatural arrangement for North America. All of North America’s political arrangements have been Federations. The Iroquois Confederation. The Articles of Confederation. The Federal Constitution of 1789. The Southern Confederacy.
The land and geography , peoples, interests have always been too diverse.
Moreover it is now obvious to all and they have pointedly made it obvious the power isn’t even in the elected President or Congress but in the permanent government, the Deep State.
The actual distribution of power in DC isn’t Federal, its Feudal. There’s people in DOD who’d hang State (rightly) and the FBI has always been at war with the CIA. We can go on.
This is a Feudal government in a Federal Skin. Not stable.
Correct me if I’m wrong: The Left’s cultural power is money- from the Center- and their very culture is politics (it ain’t art or humor). Its art like. ! SCIENCE! is scientific.
Its political. It’s money.
Short question; where is the Left’s cultural power without money?
This is why I love Substack, it gives me a chance to hear different perspectives from smart people all across the world.
To give my answer to: "where is the Left’s cultural power without money?"
From where I'm sitting, their cultural power comes from 2 things (or they just might be 1, but I will break it out into 2):
1) As I am something of a Nietzschean, or at least I always have that crazy genius' voice in my head, I think just about everything runs downstream from morality, and the new reigning bullet-proof morality of all educated Americans under 40 is the morality of the Social Justice religion. Which, as I'm sure you know, is more or less: interrogate every person, place, thing, or event (past present and future), locate who is the Oppressor and who is the Oppressed, and vociferously denounce the former and do everything and anything to help the latter, no matter the cost in cash or clarity; and
2) my wife is a writer of both books and scripts, and she mentors young artists (mostly female) in both Hollywood and in NYC publishing, and not only are they all disciples of the Soc Justice religion, they are busy as we speak crafting the narratives of the future, ie. every movie book song etc that the children of today encounter is completely loaded with this morality and perspective, and it seems just as natural and proper to them as being a Christian did 100 yrs ago.
So my perspective is more of a Roman pagan after Constantine: a new god has rolled into town, it seems to have taken over the govt, the schools, and it has an army of wild-eyed acolytes (they're even willing to castrate their own children to pledge allegiance!)—so it's best for me to keep my head down, pray to my own gods in private, hope the mob passes me over, and never forget that human stupidity and conformity is infinite and eternal, so try not to get too worked up about it.
But that's just me, I would never preach it to anyone else.
I've thought the same thing re: civil war or actual violent collapse. Mainly I don't see anyone with agency to push things forward. Talking to people who believe otherwise, there seems to be a ??? step whereupon things get violent.
In regards to a collapse, though, I agree less. I agree that the US is not near any sort of big dramatic fall. But I don't think the structures you descrbe can hold the US together as it is, rather than desintegrate into something more Brazil-like*.
But as systems fail and things worsen (energy and food pressures are very real), will elite unity hold? Not everyone within your blue chart is well off; the mainstream media in particular.
Also, I think it's worth noting that the elites looked different not that long ago. Police used to be part of the elite, but that has changed to serve current dogma and are still pariahs in the discourse. The same is true for the rank and file in the military; the "warrior caste" was given lip-service of being part of the ruling elite, but there seems to be a concerted effort to exclude them from the current military -- a curious choice given the military's role in maintaining elite power, and the lack of of a ready replacement.
Finally, there's the market. Do the elites drive the market, or are they driven by them (or, more likely, is it an odd feedback loop no one can fully describe)? The players there have their own interests; they're not necessarily loyal to any one regime.
* I'm from Brazil. I hate to think it, but life is pretty comfortable for me, as an upper-middle-class member of the elite, so the US slowly tripping and tumbling as it turns into us is hardly a fate worse than death. Granted, even we have a better social safety net than the US.
I just don't think the old left/right paradigm works anymore. When "liberals" are illiberal totalitarians how does the title make any sense?
I think a better way to describe what's happening is between working patriots vs globalist elite. The elites share far more with their counterparts on the far side of the planet than they do with the middle and lower class people who live a few blocks away. I suspect we'll see this playout in Germany soon. Germany collapses so the elites take their BMWs or their Hugo Boss and move the factories to China and India and they will see it all as a big opportunity to squeeze the margins.
Meanwhile, ordinary Germans who love their country and their collective identity suffer as the country collapses because of policy decisions they have no say in.
They've been doing this in America for generations. Squeeze the lower and middle class as jobs are exported and a transfer of wealth upward accelerates.
The elites share common interests with their peers around the world. They have no interests in common with the masses. They never did. The only reason things were different in the past was that fear of organised labour and interstate competition required class compromise. The end of the Cold War dissolved the material foundations of that world.
What we are seeing is the fulfillment of the 20:80 scenario that figured at the State of the World conference of 1995: 20% of the workers produce all the goods and services that the market economy needs to operate profitably, the remaining 80% are superfluous.
From the point of view of the system it is pointless to aim for excess production anywhere, except where wages are so cheap that labour arbitrage can yield substantial profits, so the scenario necessarily facilitates deindustrialisation and the normalisation of underemployment, unemployment and precarious and intermittent employment.
Germany's elite and major corporations are now fully integrated into the global system, the masses are superfluous. America pioneered the model. Europe is now making the same adjustment.
I understand the plan and appreciate your grasp and explanation of The Plan.
However the machine breaks a lot. Then there's all these people slipping through it's many, many cracks.
Whenever troubleshooting a network the first thing we ask is: where were 'these' - hold up your hands - last applied? With the Left hand you have human frailty with the Right hand Free will. Between them anything is possible. [I'm a network technician/engineer].
It's the free will driven by the frailty -which includes our human concupiscence by the way - that is just going to make such a hash of all these plans.
That and 87% of the world isn't going along with Plan Ukraine, the sideshow that's exploding. It hasn't even begun to explode doncha know.
If our elites are the Architect from The Matrix .... there are entirely too many Neo's and far too many mad yet despairing Agent Smiths.
Oh and our Architects are senile and even their middle aged staffs are lit to the gills on SSRI's. When the best Robot Demon Killers you can send are ..... The Media...
They don't have the sand to see this through.
This isn't Churchill and Eton marching alongside Roosevelt and Groton to link up with Stalin and Zhukov.
It's Pelosi and Harris as the two most sane people in the room.
One key point that is worth noting. The failure of any plan at that level is not the end of it. Plans serve multiple aims: to broadcast ideological directions to those who need guidance, to test the responses of the public or other stakeholders (my apologies for fouling the comments section with this sort of language), to disseminate ideas and to shape debate in preparation for the next iteration of social engineering. A plan may succeed in one or other of these aims even if it fails in others.
The various strategies of Clown Show are likely to re-emerge in Clown Show Redivivus, the successor to the current regime. 20:80 is not going away, even if it may go underground for a while.
I fully agree...in politics planning is mostly the technocratic equivalent of prayer...an expression of belief and wishful thinking.
The trouble is that anticipating the inevitable failure of preposterous ideas is easy...enduring the wait for reality to intrude is hard and demoralising beyond words. I was young when the Cold War triumphalism was embodied in iconic form in public policy. I have spent my adult life hearing sado-utopian rhetoric and watching the few disbelievers get ground down (and the imagery is in no sense an exaggeration).
The explosion has not begun. The civil war in the Ukraine these last eight years was the slow-burning fuse...the big stuff is weeks away, a month or two at most.
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The graphic is for illustrative purposes and is not comprehensive. I will not get drawn into debate about 'what goes where', sorry to disappoint ;)
Re: chart - I am not very skilled at creating graphics, so I did the best that I could. I wish I had better skills, as I would have created a horizontal spectrum that would have allowed for better placement and multiple placements for some names.
I wish that I had the skills to make something like this, for example - https://i.postimg.cc/mrnZDSzh/median.png
I could have written a 30,000 word piece on this subject, but this will have to do for now. There are a lot of open spaces for naysayers to exploit, but that is natural for a medium-sized piece covering so much ground.
After reading your reasoning and purpose, the chart made perfect sense to me.
The bulk of institutions/people are systemically aligned even if the color of the their jacket is red or blue, the elites take care of their own, plus the system is set up to perpetuate itself through a continued pipeline of elites.
The populace below the elite level is divided like pawns so they cannot provide a cohesive counter point to the overwhelming systemic presence in their life. Without sufficient elite leaders of their own they will continue to be marginalized in favor of voters who are happy to participate in the charade of taxing and voting.
That's a pretty good summary :)
I get a lot of criticism for this stance. For example, the Marxists believe that I am purposely overlooking the working class, to which I reply: they are simply not organized to be effective.
The US elites are unique in the developed world in their success in demobilising the masses. This is the greatest piece of statecraft in the 20th c., perhaps the only truly original achievement of US politics.
The working classes are about to face a challenge neither the 'Left' nor 'Right' will ever fight: a BIPOC-heavy elite created in best crony capitalist style by preferential finance (aka the Cantillon effect) which is being institutionalised by way of the new mandate for the Federal Reserve.
To boil down what I said above:
1] putting the Americans in the Black Box is inspired Genius. I'm in that Black Box and even I don't know what's in here.
2] It's as if the Population of Switzerland was given the government and Elites of the Balkans, or Lebanon. As is commonly proffered and it's probably true if you switched the Lebanese with the Swiss Beirut would be Geneva and Geneva would explode. What's new in history is we have the Lebanese government over an essentially Swiss population.
The final result is unknown.
I'm going to add a caution to Philip: all that he says is true, but what's true is we know now, and we didn't know before. Hence uncertain outcome.
Your caution is duly noted and well-taken. Uncertainty is baked in the cake. The future will most likely surprise all of us. The best we can do is apply our reason as best we can and acknowledge that every trend inevitably reaches an inflection point.
Your comment about the elites touches a nerve. The 'Swiss' of North America are stuck with a fast-evolving elite that will be more ruthless (and less competent) than their Lebanese or Balkan peers and entirely berefit of public spirit or concern fior the welfare of the 'Swiss': a North American elite that incorporates a substantial BIPOC element within both the oligarchy itself and the sub-oligarchic strata of professionals. This element was created by affirmative action and preferential contracting and now stands to benefit from preferential access to finance (aka the Cantillon effect) which is being institutionalised by way of the new mandate for the Federal Reserve. The BIPOC and immigrant element of the elite will be able to rely upon the social and cultural prestige conferred by multiculturalism, any number of legally enforceable privileges and economic policies crafted to promote racial equity.
In return for this, the BIPOC/immigrant element within both the oligarchy and the professional and managerial class will vigorously defend the class interests of the wider elite...and they will be unconstrained by any shared culture or history with the masses and supersensitive to insult, to say nothing of the threat of populism. The minority will police the attitudes of their peers and will fortify the elite's contempt and fear of the masses.
My guess is that the inflection point will be reached when a significant proportion of the elite realise that they or their children are at risk of being displaced. The prospect of joining the 'Swiss' in their helot bantustans should motivate some creative thinking about politics. You can already see the very first stirrings of this in the piss-weak populism on offer from Tucker Carlson.
Yes most don't realize how Blue Tucker's blood is..
As ever very considered contribution by you. Great writing style. Methinks you are an elite outlier. no offence intended, as it is head down and keep quiet time in your country.
I am flattered. You could say that I have been elite-adjacent on and off, but failed to ever get recruited into any mafia and burnt one or two bridges. A colleague once told me that I frightened them. They never knew what I might say next and, consequently, would not know how to respond. This is flattering, but to be honest I would have sold my soul in a heartbeat.
Like Jerry Garcia said when congratulated on Dead never selling out- we'd a sold out but nobody tried to make a decent offer.
The Black Box being MAGA is genius, intentional or not.
I’m in the Black Box and we in the box don’t know either.
Does it have room for Hispanics?
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/the-gops-three-amigas
Maybe the GOP will finally get some Balls, besides the ones on Lindsey Graham’s chin.
When my Righty friends say there will be a civil war, I tell them that if there is it will last a few days and will consist of arrests of Righties too stupid to lie low. It will be a "civil war" the way that Stalin's purge was a civil war, the government eliminating anyone who could be a troublemaker. There is nothing that can stand up to the regime, which is more aware of threats than any government in history, which reads all electronic communications, and which knows precisely who could possibly cause any problems. The regime will continue to push its boot firmly and steadily downward on the throats of the proles, who cannot and will not do anything about it.
We can never say never, and no regime is permanent, but I simply can't see any of these trumped-up threats to the USA materializing any time soon.
"....trumped-up threats..." Is that a deliberate pun?
Exactly. Every regime eventually ends. Sometimes the forms are maintained. USA seems to be transitioning more to a permanent oligarchy with ritualized democratic activity that doesn’t have any substantive meaning. There would have to be catastrophic economic failures, and possibly military defeat or disaster that actually touched the American people, before the existing elites would be threatened. Since I live here I don’t wish that on myself!
For those reading the comments (as I know that you've already read this piece as well) - https://niccolo.substack.com/p/the-desquamation-of-america
Wait. All those disasters are upon us now.
You may want to move.
Haha, you need to read more. Real disasters look MUCH WORSE than this. Mass starvation; entire navies on fire, sinking; millions of desperate people on the move. The USA is not remotely in that condition yet.
Read? LOL. Well I do.
You are adding mass starvation and navies on fire.
But war and economic disaster are on us now, they just need time to work for your specifications.
Moreover, and you can read up on it at no point did conditions as you lay out cause revolution. Revolutions are caused by Revolutionary groups and organizations that may move because of disastrous rule or take advantage of the disasters but the view that suffering = revolution isn't true.
Popular but a myth.
The Irish in 1847 did not revolt.
I can go on at length.
Revolutions or real movements happen during well fed upswings and times of rising expectations.
Revolutions require organizations but they also are very caloric intensive.
The Starving don't revolt.
No, nothing remotely as bad as what can and probably will happen has happened yet here. It is going to be like the 30s, the 40s, mass arrests, arbitrary power, broken skulls, cops breaking down the doors, millions dead, global depression, real, hard, no-fucking-around tyranny. The real shit. We are living in paradise compared to what’s coming.
You misunderstand me. I didn’t say there would be a revolution. I said there can’t be a revolution. You can’t have a revolution where any possible revolutionary organization exists in a bright spot light reviewed by the intelligence services at all times. It is going to get very bad, but it’s not gonna be possible to shake off this elite. Only way it can happen is if things get so bad that some factions within the elite break away and try to take over, in which case there will be a surface appearance of a revolution. But it will just be an elite factional struggle. The days of mass revolutions ended with the era of mass electronic surveillance.
The level of devastation was such as to make rebellion impossible. The European styled Young Ireland did an opera buffo raid which collapsed in fiasco. Many died, more left and opposition transitioned to oath bound secret societies e.g Fenians, which became the truly revolutionary IRB, which begat Collins, all seven murdered signatories of Independence Proclamation of 1916. The success of the Land League in Land Wars was backed up by what IRB would do to traitors. Boycotts were underpinned by guns.
Do you think the ultra forceful raids on Christian inspired abortion protesters by heavily armed FBI goons is trial run to see how far regime can go against ANY opposition. Allied to the Mar Lago raid and overkill on J6 people it would appear so.
To give credit where credit is due, the regime has a degree of confidence, assurance and political realism that deserves a degree of respect.
The Left, the Ton Ton Macoute of Turbo-America, has more than enough energy to successfully constrain the Right. The Right have played the role of controlled opposition for so long that they cannot function as a viable alternative. The working class have been crushed, the middle has no agency and is a shrinking proportion of the population. The Left can ethnically-cleanse major cities and open the borders to recruit a replacement population. The Left can kill MAGA supporters without so much as a police investigation (as we saw in Portland).
The Right's only achievement has been to minimise the impact of Covid lockdowns...they are now transitioning into their next role as the governing element of the Red Bantustans, the Cracker Ghettoes, of the future. Barring a deus ex machina, the Left looks set to define the future.
ER, none of this is stable Philip.
A regime that could claim legitimacy until 2 years ago, indeed 47 months ago as the primary stabilizing quality has tossed that away.
It's one thing to pull off a successful fraud, it's another to hang around when it's discovered.
No, there's no right-wing militia and the Left are owned by Finance.
On the other hand, there's no loyalty in this system below middle management at best, and even our middle managers are cowards who couldn't change a tire and have never been in a fight.
This is the USSR in the 1980s. It probably wants to be the CCP in the 1980s, but it's crushing the economy and telling the police and military that they, they are personally evil, and their families are the mortal enemy, evil incarnate.
Mind you it was always the opinion of some that if the DDR had given the order to open fire they'd still be around. What's unknown is if the Vopos would have obeyed.
There were probably more true believing socialists behind the wall even in 1989 then there are American Elites with real believing loyalty to this system, one they'd sacrifice for, suffer for, die for, kill for.
All excellent points...however, I'd suggest that we are in uncharted waters. The population of North America is aging, typically overweight and stoned...the proles of East Germany were in way better condition and vastly more sophisticated in their political thinking. The aging ex-commies of East Germany would have some interesting perspectives on the present condition of the US.
My perspective is that we should plan for the worst (regime survival), maintain a fair bit of scepticism about liberation narratives and retain just enough hope to save ourselves from despair. Apart from that, kick back and maintain your good humour as best you can.
My best guess is that we shall see a comic-opera horror show as Clown World burns. A brothel on fire would be more dignified. Unfortunately, the whole thing will involve cruelty and a good many decent people will get hurt in the mayhem...as many already have been.
You know most of the BLM TIFA ethnic cleansing in 2020 was Bernie Bros getting rode out of town. Urban was not Trump.
Maybe next they can burn down colleges.
But how many became even a little bit more realistic as a result of their experiences? When ethno-masochism bites on the psyche, it does so very hard. Feminised men ending up with the psyches of women in love with men who beat them ('but he loves me!...he'll change!!...this time it's different!!!'). It is all par for the course in a culture where best practice in child-rearing is breast-binding and castration.
Re the improvement of higher education, that would be too much to hope for.
Good article. I’ve seen you and Tinkzorg bantering back and forth a bit on Twitter about decline and collapse; I think a second interview with him here to explore those ideas would be a great read. Especially for those of us who are on the fence about the subject.
Maybe the best critique of the hollowness of the Atlanticist elite is that I have no doubt that I can get far less insight from them than I can from a debate between a brown Swedish gamer and a Croat bike thief.
I promise to give you back your bike when I am finished with it.
Since us Americhads have been stomping on the necks of our Europoor servants for months now, I’ll be gracious and consider it redistributive justice.
Thought Nic was a cigarette smuggler. Tinkzorg is amusing but that anime stuff.....
A very good piece, Niccolo. It makes sense for any society to prioritise trust. However, the oligarchs do not need a high trust society. The need a low trust one, because this reduces the risk of successful mass opposition. The ruinous social and economic costs of a low trust society can be passed on to the masses. This is not a failure of the system, it is a central feature of it.
"The people don't matter".
You have a hideously correct point here Philip.
However how long can that last?
It's one thing to have a psychotic in a dress insisting he's a woman, it's another to tell the Leopard his spots are stripes. There's a lot of Leopards out there...
We'll know the game is up when the top players (or their kids/cronies) get sacrificed. At the moment there are signs of panic...Elon Musk's enthusiasm for a negotiated peace is proof of that. A decisive and unambiguous Russian victory could very easily set off a collapse in the financial markets. The politicians are thorough trash, but the oligarchs have the brain-power to figure out that a winter war is now a few months away. [re war, this is a must read -
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means]
Nordstream was a blue-water Rubicon...the unintended signal was of profound desperation. The British sunk the Danish fleet because they feared invasion during the Napoleonic wars...Biden is simply worried about the mid-terms. Only an utter imbecile would believe that sabotage of that kind was a power move of any kind, but Biden has the largest collection of imbeciles in US history to advise him: Austin, Sullivan and Blinken, to name just three. It is very close to feeding time for the leopards.
I say that as matters stand, we are headed for direct war with Russia, all the steps of the template are being taken. I have watched or participated in same since the 1990s.
If I can see it the Russians can.
I don't think the Russians will wait.
Indeed, not only are they at war already with us in their mindset they have gotten out of the waiting / react to us game.
The partly pre-emptive attack into the Donbass in February shows they are done reacting.
Are we ready?
No, not really.
I also say I think we'll also have a Civil War in America because the Elites want one, when I saw the Green Zone in DC I knew. That's also the consensus of the other Combat Overseas Veterans who went to DC. Seeing is believing, and these aren't political people. If you saw the Green Zone in Baghdad and then the one in DC, you have the entire script. So far DC continues to needle us just as they needled the Iraqis until they exploded - mind you they went to war with us faster. That's because there were many organizations in place to do so and an ample supply of weapons and trained men who were out of work.
Remember war has been good to the Decision makers. They don't fight and they got rich and powerful from war. They are behind private security who are former Special Ops, gated and alarmed facilities and houses and so on.
You are also correct about the desperation - but to them losing power is losing life, why not throw it all up in the air and roll the Iron Dice?
War has never been bad to them.
It's a socialized cost with privatized profits like everything else.
If nuclear they're in bunkers.
When they come out, they'll still be on top.
It's Win, Win.
===========
In related news Amazon has Potassium Iodine tablets cheap and has Prussian Blue as well. My entire order $93.
I wish that I could disregard what you write but I can't. At heart we all want the same thing...unqualified reassurance (as priests, salesmen and whores have always understood). But you are right and I must defer to your experience and instinct. They are sociopathic...have enough personal experience with serious decisionmakers to understand how the West is governed and by what types. The hormonal thrill of power is intoxicating...you can see it on the faces and in the behaviours of the lifers in politics and their closest servitors. The social psychologies formed by our governing institutions (both public and private) select for sociopathy or for para-sociopathy. A sane person would run from them.
Thanks for the tip re Amazon. I live in a city that has some kind of civilian satellite signals infrastructure and the military have been developing an alternative set of headquarters away from their current ones (one or two suburbs away) for a while. Russian nuclear doctrine is explicit: decision-making centres are targets. Can't blame them one bit.
Would you think mutterings of charges against Hunter are a shot across the bows of Biden faction that, no Jill, he will not be running in 24.
Definitely. You would have to be pretty close things to do any better than a guess. Typically, there would have to be multiple dimensions to any of it.
Biden is vulnerable, so too are plenty of the others all across the political spectrum. The prospect of Hunter getting charged sends very mixed messages. Biden is corrupt beyond words, but his protectors can disregard all relevant laws. This demoralises decent people, but it functions as an advertisement for the IC directed at key potential clients. The key players involved would love the power involved in holding such cards.
Biden is constrained by his corruption and his physical and mental condition. The exposure of corruption is a warning, but it also opens up all sorts of opportunities for the IC, should they ever need a scapegoat for the escalating disaster. At the moment, Biden remains useful, so Hunter has nothing to fear just yet...however, if I was a Biden family lawyer I'd have a pardon drawn up, signed and hidden away, just in case. This would not necessarily do Hunter much good IMHO. The nastiness in the Ukraine is depthless and Russia is definitely planning on exposing as much of it as possible. Hunter is useful now...under the right/wrong circumstances the IC would be much better off with him dead. The best scenario for Hunter is to take a fall on minor corruption charges, get a pardon from Dad while he can or at least co-operate by keeping his mouth shut so that the prosecution does not go for the throat.
The possibility of Hunter getting perp-walked thrills the MAGA crowd. No matter how much the elite despise the masses, they cannot ignore the need to maintain a raft of political options, simply for the sake of the system. There would have to be several factions within the oligarchy who may need to play the Trump card or, more to their taste, De Santos. Being dependent on the Democrats works for now, but the Democrats are too dependent on the African-American political machine and the costs involved are mounting fast. And nothing could do more for restoring the reputation of American justice than the pretence of prosecuting Hunter.
Finally, a Hunter B. trial could be one way of managing the wider narrative. The big picture is China. Charging Hunter on Ukrainian stuff might allow the FBI and Justice to misdirect attention away from more serious matters. Trials are theatrical...Hunter's would be the trial of the century and would create many opportunities for all sorts of mischief. It is all insane...a fitting denouement for Clown World...which will be followed by Clown World Redivivus. Many of the true villains are trying to play the long game.
I'm liking it. Doesn't this version of Elite Theory and global US empire/Turbo America tie in nicely with Fukuyama's End of History thesis that there is no alternative to liberal democracy out there in the world today - Dick Hanananania basically posited your Turbo America through Fukuyama recently - i'd be interested to hear your response. Uncle Yarvin also points this out - US empire ain't going anywhere soon because of Elite Theory as you describe and there is no alternative to turn to - Russia is off the table if it was ever on the table and China is more and more knee capping itself - who else is there to turn to?
I don't think that the universal adoption of western liberal democracy is in the cards, especially as it is having systemic issues in the West. An authoritarian state-driven capitalism has become quite popular elsewhere.
Honestly can’t believe I’m saying this but the stability of authoritarian state-driven capitalism is comforting when you look around at the rest of the world.
You are not alone, I can assure you. Regimes that have a demonstrated interest in the success and welfare of their people and the continuity of their culture have an obvious attraction, so long as they are not too heavy handed or obnoxiously ideological.
People in the West who cannot expect much from their own regimes will come to appreciate the better features of the competing systems. The middle and working classes, constrained by the oligarchs and the professional-managerial classes above them and harassed by the crime and violence of the underclass, form the natural constituency for authoritarian state-driven capitalism.
I'll believe that formula works out when I see Detroit rise from the rubble Philip.
I did not write that the peoples of the West will successfully imitate any of the political projects now emerging elsewhere. A very great deal of effort will be applied to ensure that they don't. Those who pay too close an attention to such matters will have to emigrate or risk a visit from the anti-extremist taskforce.
I hear ya but most those authoritarian state-driven capitalist states (Canada, Indonesia, Tanzania) like to pretend to be western liberal multi-party democracies - they don't pretent to be Putin's Russia or Xi's China...
Somehow doubt Indonesia or Tanzania are pretending to be western anything. But there’s a huge huge gap between Canada’s government and the authoritarian government Im most familiar with. They can’t be compared.
I was joking around a bit comparing Canada and Tanzania - cheap shot - I have no idea what Indonesia is up to but Tanzania's government and elites actually do try to show themselves as a modern, western, respects human rights, multiparty democracy, etc. making progress towards a prosperous state within the cultural heritage of Africa, etc.
Ringo, I fully agree with you that Turbo America is here to stay, but I disagree about Russia.
As I see it, Turbo America looks set to reign triumphant over the Americas, Oceania and Antarctica. The current putrid and hateful Sado-Malthusian regime will flourish in one form or another long after Biden has gone to Hell, even as the American people become accustomed to a standard of living closer to that of the developing world.
But Turbo America cannot establish control over Eurasia. Russia in partnership with China, Turkey, Iran and India can and will constrain Turbo America. The Russians have the military capacity to make the skies of Eurasia a Yankee-free zone and they have submarines that can outperform the US ones. The Anglo-American advantage in combat avionics and aerospace is history, as is the naval supremacy. Turbo America will simply invest heavily in full spectrum narrative-mgt to cover up news from the rest of the world.
Russia doesn't appear to have air superiority over Ukraine let alone the US and we haven't yet given the Uks fighter jets...
It depends on who you believe. I suggest that you start reading Andrei Martyanov to set you straight about the relative capacities of the US and Russian militaries. Martyanov ran a research lab in aeronautics in the US.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
Russian military has great capacity - but can it execute - I will make no predictions how this will end but the russian military hasn't exactly shown great competence to this point - even with help from the US they should have been able to do a lot better a lot quicker against Ukraine with the resources they have...
Ringo, you are wise not to make predictions. However, if you are interested in pursuing the q. of why they have taken their time, this piece will explain it brilliantly. https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means
“Every single one of you reading this right now is, like me, a news junkie … knowledge is what helps us navigate through life, often giving us competitive advantages over others to help us secure more resources for ourselves and for those reliant upon us.”
How do we take advantage of this knowledge? This is an open question to everyone. Yes, I am shamelessly hijacking this article to seek advice, but if we do not make use of the knowledge we gain, what is the purpose of having it?
I’ll share a couple ideas in replies to this message. Though take anything I say critically: while I feel like an old man with a measure of experience and credibility, most people say to me, “Andrew, you’re not old! You’re only 24!”
Invest in America
The elites use methods accessible to anyone with disposable income (financial markets and real estate) to accrue wealth. It is in their best interest for these to grow over the long term; they will fight to prop them up in spite of any financial problems the United States may have. Sure, many things can go wrong, but if you stick to reputable ETFs or America’s top companies, you’ll be okay in the long run
Work in the United States; Live Abroad
Salary growth may be slowing down in the US but they are still far higher than they are elsewhere. If you can take that salary to Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, or South America, you can maintain a relatively good quality of life while saving thousands
This does not apply to many people: some cannot work remotely, some have families they cannot easily move, others simply don’t want to deal with the hassle— but if you can, it can be both financially rewarding as well as culturally rewarding
US might go after Saudi Arabia next. Biden has hinted support for the NOPEC Act. Serious analysts are against it but the American liberal class wants to punish the Saudis for their tacit support of Russia. This is also one area where it's very easy to get the America First masses on board. US is very confident right now. Notwithstanding the unspoken alliance between the liberals and Islamists in the West against conservatives, American liberals still want the Pride Flag to fly high over Mecca.
The Saudis are the only swing producer, which means that taking their oil offline equals global world depression.
Secondly, regime change in Riyadh means vicious civil war in that country.
I hate the Saudis more than most.
But I doubt any such move.
No way...this is wish-fulfillment stuff on the part of the libs. The Deep State might attempt a coup by Langley's friends within the Al Sa'ud family, but this would be insanely risky. I very much doubt that the mafia clan within the Deep State that spawned the Obama Administration and controls the Biden one would attempt it, regardless of how much they hate MBS.
MBS successfully constrained the power of Langley's fifth column...the success he had in forcing the more corrupt princes to give up much of their wealth made him a hero to many Sa'udis and the killing of Kashoggji was a major power move, pure class in political terms, in that it signalled royal resolve in constraining the Muslim Brotherhood and its backers in the CIA.
What does US is very confident now mean? Does US mean DC?
In any case midterms need to be ah negotiated.
Brilliant!
Since I'm not supposed to freak out about the graphic, I'll just Gay out and like color scheme Cringe brah...cringe.
It is definitely true in America, like so many places, the elites guard each other's backs. That's why you have lovefests between George W. Bush and Michelle Obama. The less said about both, the better.
But do you really need a large number of elites to overthrow a country? It strikes me it is not a numbers game, but the power of the person shut out. I would imagine that a system where the ruling class joins together to oust one group can lead to civil war, if that adversary had no alternative (was faced with ruin) and had enough savvy/charisma/resources to bring down the system. I don't think that Trump is even close to that class of individual - he is a huckster who often has the right policies but is personally offensive and shortsighted. But I think one person could take down the system - if they had enough military/popular support. Think Julius Caesar. The Senate united against him, refused to compromise, promised to ruin him -- and the elites in Rome got their asses handed to them.
I don’t at all see how America is an incredibly resilient country. The fundamentals by which the elite can perpetuate itself are becoming ever more exiguous. America is now essentially defined by porn and pot. Anyway, Mike Anton’s book “The Stakes” -- the last few chapters -- lays out how collapse, or transformation into a Brazilianified “blue” or left wing Caesar , is likely what’s in play.
Transformation is what I suggested as well in this piece from last year - https://niccolo.substack.com/p/the-desquamation-of-america
Transformation does not require collapse nor civil war.
Its very shaky to try to rule a foreign land who’s population you’ve made enemies with native troops- and I am referring to America and her alien Elites now.
Transform into...The East India Company? This bunch?
My Dear Nico these creatures are NOT the Raj. Biden is not Clive. Etc.
Good heavens, we ☘️ know something about the Anglo Imperialists.
As an American these elites are embarrassing at best, scary with nukes in truth.
The US is nowhere near Brazil and Brazil is nowhere near collapse
Not saying it’s near. But that’s the telos if current trends continue. I live in LA. Grew up here. Today it’s a shithole. And you’re right, Brazil is nowhere near collapse. But it represents a level of 3rd world “dysfunctional functioning” that I do think many US elites want to achieve for the US. Why? Because justice (third world mass immigration, a vast slavish underclass, and a squeezed middle class) is more important than consent (as in consent of the governed).
Yes. Turning LA into a shithole does not mean the end of the USA. It just means the end of what LA (and SoCal) once was.
You have to differentiate America from the government, which in its delusional mind is the American Headquarters of Global East India Company; totally serious.
mmmmm....so all light blue is elite?
You can't include rank and file anything there from military or police.
Or the workers in anything, or rank and file anything.
Holding your nose in disgust and hoping for clearer skies isn't loyalty.
In fairness I guess your chart is nearly all elites.
Let me ask this: if the Elite theory is applied to the following historical cases are the results the same?
Iran 1976
DDR 1986
Yugoslavia 1982.
Russian 1916.
Germany 1917
USSR 1986
Warsaw pact 1986
Lebanon right now. Are the Lebanese elites defecting?
I don't know. They've chosen sides of course, but are they locked in that hard?
I don't want to go all Marxist here but they tapped into something, and there was a lot more for example nationalist loyalty in the various socialist parties of 1916 to their respective warring nations then there's loyalty to this USA thing whatever it is...
You're also overlooking your own stated impact of a high trust society that has a sudden collapse in trust. In terms of reverence for the Constitution we were completely and perhaps still are worshipping the Holy Ghosts of the Founding. Let me put it another way - it's as if the society of the Wood Piling Swiss were suddenly being run and governed by the local police and government of the Balkans.
Now the Democrats and the alphabet soup you list above are held together mainly by swag, interest and money, the only other glue is FEAR of the small boxes, in particular the Black Box you have there for Trump.
The one achievement of this graphic that can never be taken away from you is making the Americans The Black Box in that Chart. Indeed we are, we are an opaque Black Box. Even we don't know what's in the Black Box, it may be nothing.....or it may be everything.
Nico if you swapped the populations of the Balkans and Switzerland the results would be identical - the Balkans would become Switzerland and Geneva would become the Balkans. What has happened here is your light blue elites have decided as a Hive Mind that were going to be some weird cross between Dubai [with them in the penthouse and us in the slums] and Eastern Europe in terms of our ancient liberties of a millennium [Anglo Saxon and other Germanic property laws and rights].
That Team Elite all agree that America should morph into Dubai is all very settled in their mind.
That they have the assent of the country is not.
Lebanon - which we are coming to resemble - was not a Switzerland that decayed into , well, Lebanon, it was Lebanon and the countryside came for the coast.
"mmmmm....so all light blue is elite? You can't include rank and file anything there from military or police."
No, because this piece is about elites...not the rank and file.
I posted earlier; I think there will be Civil War, because the Elites want one.
I'm writing from California, which is one giant golden goose, nestled inside the largest gaudiest golden goose in history, the US of muthafuckin A...so I absolutely agree that we are all wayyy too rich n fat for any kind of civil war (and from where I'm sitting what would that mean? A militia from Arizona invades Santa Monica, kills some surfers and bums, and then what? Wait the 10 mins it would take for an attack helicopter to incinerate them?)
But the one thing that flashes red for me is just the large and ever widening chasm bw the lifestyles and beliefs of our elite class and our average proles. It really does seem that our elite class loathes America and its people and thinks of it as more of a place to stash assets and send their kids to college, so they can acquire and stash more assets. Look at this clueless jackass saying the quiet part out loud:
https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1578130142655905816
But from their sudden inability to define "woman" to their Net Zero fantasy to their moral crusade to open the borders and open the jails, I would say at the very least that the elite class has very different ideas, values and goals than just about anyone outside their class, almost to the level of colonizer/colonized.
And I think once a country gets into Ancien Regime territory, some ugly future (whatever that may be) becomes more likely than not.
I was considering linking to that clip from the CATO economist in the piece, but didn't squeeze it in. What an asshole.
what a hateful pig.
and god forbid if something ugly does go down (up to and including The Donald taking the oath of office in Jan 2025), people like him will never look in the mirror and accept any responsibility, they will just double-down on rube hating and buy a second (or third?) home somewhere in the mountains.
when even bland economists get in on Hating Whitey we are getting into some really dangerous territory.
I think it's worth considering that Trump unleashed hysteria which has contributed to the current dysfunction.
If we talk in terms of a kind of Western civil war (which is what I think it is) the war is essentially psychological and spiritual. I described it as such in Britain during the post-Brexit phase where people I knew stopped speaking to their own family members over politics which is virtually unheard of here. As a result I think violence and so on are going to be a final consequence of the war not the way in which it is fought i.e. the collapse (if it comes) will have been well-established before the first shots are fired.
The GAE runs on SSRIs and a particular type of feminine hysteria as we've seen during corona. There are any number of fragile young woke 'adults' who cannot survive without medication and a carefully-controlled political environment. Brexit and Trump were like bombs going off in their souls and they simply couldn't cope. Amusingly, it could even be the GAE's media that finishes them off by increasing the pressure through their deranged reporting.
What does this mean? That winning the war could be about sustained and repeated shocks to the GAE's psyche. It doesn't have to be rational it just has to unsettled them to the point where they descend into lunacy: this is already well underway with trans etc so it's not heard to imagine.
Secondly there is a serious shortage of the serious kind of men (and it is men) who are required to keep the 'golden goose', as another poster described, fed and watered. Things are starting to break down and this winter I think will do some serious damage. Europe will suffer and that will have consequences for the GAE which isn't having a thriller for the reasons you've mentioned. I wouldn't write off the Russians. The Chinese are thinking long and hard and are still very dangerous despite their own derangement in the form of corona. A good illustration of this is 'The Machine Stops' be EM Forster. If the cocoon around the wokes goes then so will much of their beliefs. One last question: how long would it take for 1950s sexual morality to return if the Pill factories closed and the abortion clinics were banned?
But CP - its the fat and the wealthy that make Revolution right about the time they start getting poorer and thinner.
The poor and hungry follow, but on their own they are too busy trying to make it.
The starving make revolution is a popular myth; show me.
In Russia and Iran the incomes, prospects and education of the people was rising.
In France the King called the Estates into session (which would be like America calling a Constitutional Convention) the King set no rules...
....opening the opportunity for mischief, and it came.
In Ireland it finally worked because democracy and a rising middle class made it possible.
I can go on. Too fat to make revolution, too educated, too comfy ...no.
No.
What makes revolution possible now in America is a government that has thrown legitimacy (and often sanity) to the winds is also ...extremely weak.
Its visibly weak.
Their repression is incompetent, dabbling, even ridiculous. They are openly ridiculed when they demand shrilly to be feared.
^ its rather like Braveheart and Longshanks gentle son - the sight of them only encourages enemies.
oh i agree completely, it is always some other set of rising elites or at least some section of the bourgeoisie locked out of power that lead all revolutions, and then the poor getting riled only comes after.
(I'm actually reading an interesting book about this now: "Fire in the Minds of Men Origins of the Revolutionary Faith" by James H. Billington)
But speaking from my corner of the world, which is mostly in the realm of culture (books, art, film etc): the New Left has just successfully seized the means of cultural production after a 50yr campaign, and now they've managed to solidify a Church/State ruling alliance with the global corporate state and the American permanent govt, so I don't see them retreating or being dethroned anytime soon.
But I sincerely hope I'm wrong.
Unless that throne was shaky to begin with, it is. In a Federation where the central government has essentially by swindling and deceit aggregated illegitimate powers to a unnatural central unitary government , the powers are never stable. DC is an an emergency government cobbled together for the Great Depression , WW2 and the Cold War. Its purpose has gone away.
This was always an unnatural arrangement for North America. All of North America’s political arrangements have been Federations. The Iroquois Confederation. The Articles of Confederation. The Federal Constitution of 1789. The Southern Confederacy.
The land and geography , peoples, interests have always been too diverse.
Moreover it is now obvious to all and they have pointedly made it obvious the power isn’t even in the elected President or Congress but in the permanent government, the Deep State.
The actual distribution of power in DC isn’t Federal, its Feudal. There’s people in DOD who’d hang State (rightly) and the FBI has always been at war with the CIA. We can go on.
This is a Feudal government in a Federal Skin. Not stable.
Correct me if I’m wrong: The Left’s cultural power is money- from the Center- and their very culture is politics (it ain’t art or humor). Its art like. ! SCIENCE! is scientific.
Its political. It’s money.
Short question; where is the Left’s cultural power without money?
This is not a secure throne.!
This is why I love Substack, it gives me a chance to hear different perspectives from smart people all across the world.
To give my answer to: "where is the Left’s cultural power without money?"
From where I'm sitting, their cultural power comes from 2 things (or they just might be 1, but I will break it out into 2):
1) As I am something of a Nietzschean, or at least I always have that crazy genius' voice in my head, I think just about everything runs downstream from morality, and the new reigning bullet-proof morality of all educated Americans under 40 is the morality of the Social Justice religion. Which, as I'm sure you know, is more or less: interrogate every person, place, thing, or event (past present and future), locate who is the Oppressor and who is the Oppressed, and vociferously denounce the former and do everything and anything to help the latter, no matter the cost in cash or clarity; and
2) my wife is a writer of both books and scripts, and she mentors young artists (mostly female) in both Hollywood and in NYC publishing, and not only are they all disciples of the Soc Justice religion, they are busy as we speak crafting the narratives of the future, ie. every movie book song etc that the children of today encounter is completely loaded with this morality and perspective, and it seems just as natural and proper to them as being a Christian did 100 yrs ago.
So my perspective is more of a Roman pagan after Constantine: a new god has rolled into town, it seems to have taken over the govt, the schools, and it has an army of wild-eyed acolytes (they're even willing to castrate their own children to pledge allegiance!)—so it's best for me to keep my head down, pray to my own gods in private, hope the mob passes me over, and never forget that human stupidity and conformity is infinite and eternal, so try not to get too worked up about it.
But that's just me, I would never preach it to anyone else.
Cheers!
I've thought the same thing re: civil war or actual violent collapse. Mainly I don't see anyone with agency to push things forward. Talking to people who believe otherwise, there seems to be a ??? step whereupon things get violent.
In regards to a collapse, though, I agree less. I agree that the US is not near any sort of big dramatic fall. But I don't think the structures you descrbe can hold the US together as it is, rather than desintegrate into something more Brazil-like*.
But as systems fail and things worsen (energy and food pressures are very real), will elite unity hold? Not everyone within your blue chart is well off; the mainstream media in particular.
Also, I think it's worth noting that the elites looked different not that long ago. Police used to be part of the elite, but that has changed to serve current dogma and are still pariahs in the discourse. The same is true for the rank and file in the military; the "warrior caste" was given lip-service of being part of the ruling elite, but there seems to be a concerted effort to exclude them from the current military -- a curious choice given the military's role in maintaining elite power, and the lack of of a ready replacement.
Finally, there's the market. Do the elites drive the market, or are they driven by them (or, more likely, is it an odd feedback loop no one can fully describe)? The players there have their own interests; they're not necessarily loyal to any one regime.
* I'm from Brazil. I hate to think it, but life is pretty comfortable for me, as an upper-middle-class member of the elite, so the US slowly tripping and tumbling as it turns into us is hardly a fate worse than death. Granted, even we have a better social safety net than the US.
I just don't think the old left/right paradigm works anymore. When "liberals" are illiberal totalitarians how does the title make any sense?
I think a better way to describe what's happening is between working patriots vs globalist elite. The elites share far more with their counterparts on the far side of the planet than they do with the middle and lower class people who live a few blocks away. I suspect we'll see this playout in Germany soon. Germany collapses so the elites take their BMWs or their Hugo Boss and move the factories to China and India and they will see it all as a big opportunity to squeeze the margins.
Meanwhile, ordinary Germans who love their country and their collective identity suffer as the country collapses because of policy decisions they have no say in.
They've been doing this in America for generations. Squeeze the lower and middle class as jobs are exported and a transfer of wealth upward accelerates.
No, it doesn’t work
The elites share common interests with their peers around the world. They have no interests in common with the masses. They never did. The only reason things were different in the past was that fear of organised labour and interstate competition required class compromise. The end of the Cold War dissolved the material foundations of that world.
What we are seeing is the fulfillment of the 20:80 scenario that figured at the State of the World conference of 1995: 20% of the workers produce all the goods and services that the market economy needs to operate profitably, the remaining 80% are superfluous.
From the point of view of the system it is pointless to aim for excess production anywhere, except where wages are so cheap that labour arbitrage can yield substantial profits, so the scenario necessarily facilitates deindustrialisation and the normalisation of underemployment, unemployment and precarious and intermittent employment.
Germany's elite and major corporations are now fully integrated into the global system, the masses are superfluous. America pioneered the model. Europe is now making the same adjustment.
The model leaks and creaks however.
I understand the plan and appreciate your grasp and explanation of The Plan.
However the machine breaks a lot. Then there's all these people slipping through it's many, many cracks.
Whenever troubleshooting a network the first thing we ask is: where were 'these' - hold up your hands - last applied? With the Left hand you have human frailty with the Right hand Free will. Between them anything is possible. [I'm a network technician/engineer].
It's the free will driven by the frailty -which includes our human concupiscence by the way - that is just going to make such a hash of all these plans.
That and 87% of the world isn't going along with Plan Ukraine, the sideshow that's exploding. It hasn't even begun to explode doncha know.
Add - I'm going to put this another way.
This State of The World business.
If our elites are the Architect from The Matrix .... there are entirely too many Neo's and far too many mad yet despairing Agent Smiths.
Oh and our Architects are senile and even their middle aged staffs are lit to the gills on SSRI's. When the best Robot Demon Killers you can send are ..... The Media...
They don't have the sand to see this through.
This isn't Churchill and Eton marching alongside Roosevelt and Groton to link up with Stalin and Zhukov.
It's Pelosi and Harris as the two most sane people in the room.
I expect that the corridors of power now resemble a Pride Parade in a dementia ward.
One key point that is worth noting. The failure of any plan at that level is not the end of it. Plans serve multiple aims: to broadcast ideological directions to those who need guidance, to test the responses of the public or other stakeholders (my apologies for fouling the comments section with this sort of language), to disseminate ideas and to shape debate in preparation for the next iteration of social engineering. A plan may succeed in one or other of these aims even if it fails in others.
The various strategies of Clown Show are likely to re-emerge in Clown Show Redivivus, the successor to the current regime. 20:80 is not going away, even if it may go underground for a while.
I fully agree...in politics planning is mostly the technocratic equivalent of prayer...an expression of belief and wishful thinking.
The trouble is that anticipating the inevitable failure of preposterous ideas is easy...enduring the wait for reality to intrude is hard and demoralising beyond words. I was young when the Cold War triumphalism was embodied in iconic form in public policy. I have spent my adult life hearing sado-utopian rhetoric and watching the few disbelievers get ground down (and the imagery is in no sense an exaggeration).
The explosion has not begun. The civil war in the Ukraine these last eight years was the slow-burning fuse...the big stuff is weeks away, a month or two at most.