Hit the like button above to like this piece and use the share button to share this across social media. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so (be nice!).
The graphic is for illustrative purposes and is not comprehensive. I will not get drawn into debate about 'what goes where', sorry to disappoint ;)
Re: chart - I am not very skilled at creating graphics, so I did the best that I could. I wish I had better skills, as I would have created a horizontal spectrum that would have allowed for better placement and multiple placements for some names.
I could have written a 30,000 word piece on this subject, but this will have to do for now. There are a lot of open spaces for naysayers to exploit, but that is natural for a medium-sized piece covering so much ground.
When my Righty friends say there will be a civil war, I tell them that if there is it will last a few days and will consist of arrests of Righties too stupid to lie low. It will be a "civil war" the way that Stalin's purge was a civil war, the government eliminating anyone who could be a troublemaker. There is nothing that can stand up to the regime, which is more aware of threats than any government in history, which reads all electronic communications, and which knows precisely who could possibly cause any problems. The regime will continue to push its boot firmly and steadily downward on the throats of the proles, who cannot and will not do anything about it.
Oct 7, 2022·edited Oct 7, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
Good article. I’ve seen you and Tinkzorg bantering back and forth a bit on Twitter about decline and collapse; I think a second interview with him here to explore those ideas would be a great read. Especially for those of us who are on the fence about the subject.
Maybe the best critique of the hollowness of the Atlanticist elite is that I have no doubt that I can get far less insight from them than I can from a debate between a brown Swedish gamer and a Croat bike thief.
A very good piece, Niccolo. It makes sense for any society to prioritise trust. However, the oligarchs do not need a high trust society. The need a low trust one, because this reduces the risk of successful mass opposition. The ruinous social and economic costs of a low trust society can be passed on to the masses. This is not a failure of the system, it is a central feature of it.
I'm liking it. Doesn't this version of Elite Theory and global US empire/Turbo America tie in nicely with Fukuyama's End of History thesis that there is no alternative to liberal democracy out there in the world today - Dick Hanananania basically posited your Turbo America through Fukuyama recently - i'd be interested to hear your response. Uncle Yarvin also points this out - US empire ain't going anywhere soon because of Elite Theory as you describe and there is no alternative to turn to - Russia is off the table if it was ever on the table and China is more and more knee capping itself - who else is there to turn to?
“Every single one of you reading this right now is, like me, a news junkie … knowledge is what helps us navigate through life, often giving us competitive advantages over others to help us secure more resources for ourselves and for those reliant upon us.”
How do we take advantage of this knowledge? This is an open question to everyone. Yes, I am shamelessly hijacking this article to seek advice, but if we do not make use of the knowledge we gain, what is the purpose of having it?
I’ll share a couple ideas in replies to this message. Though take anything I say critically: while I feel like an old man with a measure of experience and credibility, most people say to me, “Andrew, you’re not old! You’re only 24!”
US might go after Saudi Arabia next. Biden has hinted support for the NOPEC Act. Serious analysts are against it but the American liberal class wants to punish the Saudis for their tacit support of Russia. This is also one area where it's very easy to get the America First masses on board. US is very confident right now. Notwithstanding the unspoken alliance between the liberals and Islamists in the West against conservatives, American liberals still want the Pride Flag to fly high over Mecca.
It is definitely true in America, like so many places, the elites guard each other's backs. That's why you have lovefests between George W. Bush and Michelle Obama. The less said about both, the better.
But do you really need a large number of elites to overthrow a country? It strikes me it is not a numbers game, but the power of the person shut out. I would imagine that a system where the ruling class joins together to oust one group can lead to civil war, if that adversary had no alternative (was faced with ruin) and had enough savvy/charisma/resources to bring down the system. I don't think that Trump is even close to that class of individual - he is a huckster who often has the right policies but is personally offensive and shortsighted. But I think one person could take down the system - if they had enough military/popular support. Think Julius Caesar. The Senate united against him, refused to compromise, promised to ruin him -- and the elites in Rome got their asses handed to them.
I don’t at all see how America is an incredibly resilient country. The fundamentals by which the elite can perpetuate itself are becoming ever more exiguous. America is now essentially defined by porn and pot. Anyway, Mike Anton’s book “The Stakes” -- the last few chapters -- lays out how collapse, or transformation into a Brazilianified “blue” or left wing Caesar , is likely what’s in play.
You can't include rank and file anything there from military or police.
Or the workers in anything, or rank and file anything.
Holding your nose in disgust and hoping for clearer skies isn't loyalty.
In fairness I guess your chart is nearly all elites.
Let me ask this: if the Elite theory is applied to the following historical cases are the results the same?
Iran 1976
DDR 1986
Yugoslavia 1982.
Russian 1916.
Germany 1917
USSR 1986
Warsaw pact 1986
Lebanon right now. Are the Lebanese elites defecting?
I don't know. They've chosen sides of course, but are they locked in that hard?
I don't want to go all Marxist here but they tapped into something, and there was a lot more for example nationalist loyalty in the various socialist parties of 1916 to their respective warring nations then there's loyalty to this USA thing whatever it is...
You're also overlooking your own stated impact of a high trust society that has a sudden collapse in trust. In terms of reverence for the Constitution we were completely and perhaps still are worshipping the Holy Ghosts of the Founding. Let me put it another way - it's as if the society of the Wood Piling Swiss were suddenly being run and governed by the local police and government of the Balkans.
Now the Democrats and the alphabet soup you list above are held together mainly by swag, interest and money, the only other glue is FEAR of the small boxes, in particular the Black Box you have there for Trump.
The one achievement of this graphic that can never be taken away from you is making the Americans The Black Box in that Chart. Indeed we are, we are an opaque Black Box. Even we don't know what's in the Black Box, it may be nothing.....or it may be everything.
Nico if you swapped the populations of the Balkans and Switzerland the results would be identical - the Balkans would become Switzerland and Geneva would become the Balkans. What has happened here is your light blue elites have decided as a Hive Mind that were going to be some weird cross between Dubai [with them in the penthouse and us in the slums] and Eastern Europe in terms of our ancient liberties of a millennium [Anglo Saxon and other Germanic property laws and rights].
That Team Elite all agree that America should morph into Dubai is all very settled in their mind.
That they have the assent of the country is not.
Lebanon - which we are coming to resemble - was not a Switzerland that decayed into , well, Lebanon, it was Lebanon and the countryside came for the coast.
Oct 7, 2022·edited Oct 7, 2022Liked by Niccolo Soldo
I'm writing from California, which is one giant golden goose, nestled inside the largest gaudiest golden goose in history, the US of muthafuckin A...so I absolutely agree that we are all wayyy too rich n fat for any kind of civil war (and from where I'm sitting what would that mean? A militia from Arizona invades Santa Monica, kills some surfers and bums, and then what? Wait the 10 mins it would take for an attack helicopter to incinerate them?)
But the one thing that flashes red for me is just the large and ever widening chasm bw the lifestyles and beliefs of our elite class and our average proles. It really does seem that our elite class loathes America and its people and thinks of it as more of a place to stash assets and send their kids to college, so they can acquire and stash more assets. Look at this clueless jackass saying the quiet part out loud:
But from their sudden inability to define "woman" to their Net Zero fantasy to their moral crusade to open the borders and open the jails, I would say at the very least that the elite class has very different ideas, values and goals than just about anyone outside their class, almost to the level of colonizer/colonized.
And I think once a country gets into Ancien Regime territory, some ugly future (whatever that may be) becomes more likely than not.
I've thought the same thing re: civil war or actual violent collapse. Mainly I don't see anyone with agency to push things forward. Talking to people who believe otherwise, there seems to be a ??? step whereupon things get violent.
In regards to a collapse, though, I agree less. I agree that the US is not near any sort of big dramatic fall. But I don't think the structures you descrbe can hold the US together as it is, rather than desintegrate into something more Brazil-like*.
But as systems fail and things worsen (energy and food pressures are very real), will elite unity hold? Not everyone within your blue chart is well off; the mainstream media in particular.
Also, I think it's worth noting that the elites looked different not that long ago. Police used to be part of the elite, but that has changed to serve current dogma and are still pariahs in the discourse. The same is true for the rank and file in the military; the "warrior caste" was given lip-service of being part of the ruling elite, but there seems to be a concerted effort to exclude them from the current military -- a curious choice given the military's role in maintaining elite power, and the lack of of a ready replacement.
Finally, there's the market. Do the elites drive the market, or are they driven by them (or, more likely, is it an odd feedback loop no one can fully describe)? The players there have their own interests; they're not necessarily loyal to any one regime.
* I'm from Brazil. I hate to think it, but life is pretty comfortable for me, as an upper-middle-class member of the elite, so the US slowly tripping and tumbling as it turns into us is hardly a fate worse than death. Granted, even we have a better social safety net than the US.
I just don't think the old left/right paradigm works anymore. When "liberals" are illiberal totalitarians how does the title make any sense?
I think a better way to describe what's happening is between working patriots vs globalist elite. The elites share far more with their counterparts on the far side of the planet than they do with the middle and lower class people who live a few blocks away. I suspect we'll see this playout in Germany soon. Germany collapses so the elites take their BMWs or their Hugo Boss and move the factories to China and India and they will see it all as a big opportunity to squeeze the margins.
Meanwhile, ordinary Germans who love their country and their collective identity suffer as the country collapses because of policy decisions they have no say in.
They've been doing this in America for generations. Squeeze the lower and middle class as jobs are exported and a transfer of wealth upward accelerates.
Hit the like button above to like this piece and use the share button to share this across social media. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so (be nice!).
The graphic is for illustrative purposes and is not comprehensive. I will not get drawn into debate about 'what goes where', sorry to disappoint ;)
Re: chart - I am not very skilled at creating graphics, so I did the best that I could. I wish I had better skills, as I would have created a horizontal spectrum that would have allowed for better placement and multiple placements for some names.
I wish that I had the skills to make something like this, for example - https://i.postimg.cc/mrnZDSzh/median.png
I could have written a 30,000 word piece on this subject, but this will have to do for now. There are a lot of open spaces for naysayers to exploit, but that is natural for a medium-sized piece covering so much ground.
When my Righty friends say there will be a civil war, I tell them that if there is it will last a few days and will consist of arrests of Righties too stupid to lie low. It will be a "civil war" the way that Stalin's purge was a civil war, the government eliminating anyone who could be a troublemaker. There is nothing that can stand up to the regime, which is more aware of threats than any government in history, which reads all electronic communications, and which knows precisely who could possibly cause any problems. The regime will continue to push its boot firmly and steadily downward on the throats of the proles, who cannot and will not do anything about it.
Good article. I’ve seen you and Tinkzorg bantering back and forth a bit on Twitter about decline and collapse; I think a second interview with him here to explore those ideas would be a great read. Especially for those of us who are on the fence about the subject.
Maybe the best critique of the hollowness of the Atlanticist elite is that I have no doubt that I can get far less insight from them than I can from a debate between a brown Swedish gamer and a Croat bike thief.
A very good piece, Niccolo. It makes sense for any society to prioritise trust. However, the oligarchs do not need a high trust society. The need a low trust one, because this reduces the risk of successful mass opposition. The ruinous social and economic costs of a low trust society can be passed on to the masses. This is not a failure of the system, it is a central feature of it.
I'm liking it. Doesn't this version of Elite Theory and global US empire/Turbo America tie in nicely with Fukuyama's End of History thesis that there is no alternative to liberal democracy out there in the world today - Dick Hanananania basically posited your Turbo America through Fukuyama recently - i'd be interested to hear your response. Uncle Yarvin also points this out - US empire ain't going anywhere soon because of Elite Theory as you describe and there is no alternative to turn to - Russia is off the table if it was ever on the table and China is more and more knee capping itself - who else is there to turn to?
“Every single one of you reading this right now is, like me, a news junkie … knowledge is what helps us navigate through life, often giving us competitive advantages over others to help us secure more resources for ourselves and for those reliant upon us.”
How do we take advantage of this knowledge? This is an open question to everyone. Yes, I am shamelessly hijacking this article to seek advice, but if we do not make use of the knowledge we gain, what is the purpose of having it?
I’ll share a couple ideas in replies to this message. Though take anything I say critically: while I feel like an old man with a measure of experience and credibility, most people say to me, “Andrew, you’re not old! You’re only 24!”
US might go after Saudi Arabia next. Biden has hinted support for the NOPEC Act. Serious analysts are against it but the American liberal class wants to punish the Saudis for their tacit support of Russia. This is also one area where it's very easy to get the America First masses on board. US is very confident right now. Notwithstanding the unspoken alliance between the liberals and Islamists in the West against conservatives, American liberals still want the Pride Flag to fly high over Mecca.
Brilliant!
Since I'm not supposed to freak out about the graphic, I'll just Gay out and like color scheme Cringe brah...cringe.
It is definitely true in America, like so many places, the elites guard each other's backs. That's why you have lovefests between George W. Bush and Michelle Obama. The less said about both, the better.
But do you really need a large number of elites to overthrow a country? It strikes me it is not a numbers game, but the power of the person shut out. I would imagine that a system where the ruling class joins together to oust one group can lead to civil war, if that adversary had no alternative (was faced with ruin) and had enough savvy/charisma/resources to bring down the system. I don't think that Trump is even close to that class of individual - he is a huckster who often has the right policies but is personally offensive and shortsighted. But I think one person could take down the system - if they had enough military/popular support. Think Julius Caesar. The Senate united against him, refused to compromise, promised to ruin him -- and the elites in Rome got their asses handed to them.
I don’t at all see how America is an incredibly resilient country. The fundamentals by which the elite can perpetuate itself are becoming ever more exiguous. America is now essentially defined by porn and pot. Anyway, Mike Anton’s book “The Stakes” -- the last few chapters -- lays out how collapse, or transformation into a Brazilianified “blue” or left wing Caesar , is likely what’s in play.
mmmmm....so all light blue is elite?
You can't include rank and file anything there from military or police.
Or the workers in anything, or rank and file anything.
Holding your nose in disgust and hoping for clearer skies isn't loyalty.
In fairness I guess your chart is nearly all elites.
Let me ask this: if the Elite theory is applied to the following historical cases are the results the same?
Iran 1976
DDR 1986
Yugoslavia 1982.
Russian 1916.
Germany 1917
USSR 1986
Warsaw pact 1986
Lebanon right now. Are the Lebanese elites defecting?
I don't know. They've chosen sides of course, but are they locked in that hard?
I don't want to go all Marxist here but they tapped into something, and there was a lot more for example nationalist loyalty in the various socialist parties of 1916 to their respective warring nations then there's loyalty to this USA thing whatever it is...
You're also overlooking your own stated impact of a high trust society that has a sudden collapse in trust. In terms of reverence for the Constitution we were completely and perhaps still are worshipping the Holy Ghosts of the Founding. Let me put it another way - it's as if the society of the Wood Piling Swiss were suddenly being run and governed by the local police and government of the Balkans.
Now the Democrats and the alphabet soup you list above are held together mainly by swag, interest and money, the only other glue is FEAR of the small boxes, in particular the Black Box you have there for Trump.
The one achievement of this graphic that can never be taken away from you is making the Americans The Black Box in that Chart. Indeed we are, we are an opaque Black Box. Even we don't know what's in the Black Box, it may be nothing.....or it may be everything.
Nico if you swapped the populations of the Balkans and Switzerland the results would be identical - the Balkans would become Switzerland and Geneva would become the Balkans. What has happened here is your light blue elites have decided as a Hive Mind that were going to be some weird cross between Dubai [with them in the penthouse and us in the slums] and Eastern Europe in terms of our ancient liberties of a millennium [Anglo Saxon and other Germanic property laws and rights].
That Team Elite all agree that America should morph into Dubai is all very settled in their mind.
That they have the assent of the country is not.
Lebanon - which we are coming to resemble - was not a Switzerland that decayed into , well, Lebanon, it was Lebanon and the countryside came for the coast.
I'm writing from California, which is one giant golden goose, nestled inside the largest gaudiest golden goose in history, the US of muthafuckin A...so I absolutely agree that we are all wayyy too rich n fat for any kind of civil war (and from where I'm sitting what would that mean? A militia from Arizona invades Santa Monica, kills some surfers and bums, and then what? Wait the 10 mins it would take for an attack helicopter to incinerate them?)
But the one thing that flashes red for me is just the large and ever widening chasm bw the lifestyles and beliefs of our elite class and our average proles. It really does seem that our elite class loathes America and its people and thinks of it as more of a place to stash assets and send their kids to college, so they can acquire and stash more assets. Look at this clueless jackass saying the quiet part out loud:
https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1578130142655905816
But from their sudden inability to define "woman" to their Net Zero fantasy to their moral crusade to open the borders and open the jails, I would say at the very least that the elite class has very different ideas, values and goals than just about anyone outside their class, almost to the level of colonizer/colonized.
And I think once a country gets into Ancien Regime territory, some ugly future (whatever that may be) becomes more likely than not.
I've thought the same thing re: civil war or actual violent collapse. Mainly I don't see anyone with agency to push things forward. Talking to people who believe otherwise, there seems to be a ??? step whereupon things get violent.
In regards to a collapse, though, I agree less. I agree that the US is not near any sort of big dramatic fall. But I don't think the structures you descrbe can hold the US together as it is, rather than desintegrate into something more Brazil-like*.
But as systems fail and things worsen (energy and food pressures are very real), will elite unity hold? Not everyone within your blue chart is well off; the mainstream media in particular.
Also, I think it's worth noting that the elites looked different not that long ago. Police used to be part of the elite, but that has changed to serve current dogma and are still pariahs in the discourse. The same is true for the rank and file in the military; the "warrior caste" was given lip-service of being part of the ruling elite, but there seems to be a concerted effort to exclude them from the current military -- a curious choice given the military's role in maintaining elite power, and the lack of of a ready replacement.
Finally, there's the market. Do the elites drive the market, or are they driven by them (or, more likely, is it an odd feedback loop no one can fully describe)? The players there have their own interests; they're not necessarily loyal to any one regime.
* I'm from Brazil. I hate to think it, but life is pretty comfortable for me, as an upper-middle-class member of the elite, so the US slowly tripping and tumbling as it turns into us is hardly a fate worse than death. Granted, even we have a better social safety net than the US.
I just don't think the old left/right paradigm works anymore. When "liberals" are illiberal totalitarians how does the title make any sense?
I think a better way to describe what's happening is between working patriots vs globalist elite. The elites share far more with their counterparts on the far side of the planet than they do with the middle and lower class people who live a few blocks away. I suspect we'll see this playout in Germany soon. Germany collapses so the elites take their BMWs or their Hugo Boss and move the factories to China and India and they will see it all as a big opportunity to squeeze the margins.
Meanwhile, ordinary Germans who love their country and their collective identity suffer as the country collapses because of policy decisions they have no say in.
They've been doing this in America for generations. Squeeze the lower and middle class as jobs are exported and a transfer of wealth upward accelerates.