La France Ingouvernable

Macron's Gamble, Cordon Sanitaire, Kicking the Can Down the Road Yet Again, RN Denied, Left Wing Economics, Migration at the Heart of Political Dispute

“If we cannot govern, then no one else should be permitted to do so either”

-France’s ruling elites

It’s been one hell of a ride over here in Europe these past few weeks, and this is all thanks to electoral politics becoming interesting (very interesting, to be honest) over this past decade. Fifteen years ago, elections in Europe came and went with little fanfare as outcomes and party platforms were entirely predictable, and mavericks few and far between. Liberal democracy was manageable and horribly uninteresting.

Populism changed all of that overnight. Due to the many unforced errors made by governing elites (and compounded by their own arrogance), populist revolts began to be shaped and take place across Europe. The previously-successful micro-management of democracy suffered from a desire to over-engineer countries and societies, with their negative consequences serving as the fuel for the nascent populism that began to threaten their hold on power. Ever since then, the elites and their managers have decided that hysteria and paranoia was the best defense against these political upstarts, and that closing ranks by continuously narrowing the acceptable definition of “democracy” to ensure that these bomb throwers were left outside of it was the proper course of action. “We are not wrong as we are democrats. It’s the people who are wrong.”

I have been trying to write a comprehensive overview of the political and security scene in Europe as a sort of ‘mental reset’ for myself and for those that enjoy reading my writing. This has been very difficult to do over these past few weeks, as there has been so much that has happened (feel free to note my usage here -ed.) and that quite a few wheels are turning in different directions. I have scrapped three versions of that essay already, and all three were on the cusp of being published. Yet I would hesitate hitting “publish” every single time, as I was not content with the final product. My hesitation was borne out of the realization that I was missing something important, something that would tie it all together. I am still yet to figure out exactly what that “tie” is and have been beating myself up for weeks due to my inability to do so.

“Why not break it up into pieces, Nic?”

Might as well……..

The Overview

It is common knowledge that Germany is Europe’s most important country due to its size and especially due to its economy, but France is the continent’s most dynamic country, and because of that it is also the one that has the most capacity for upsetting the carefully-crafted post-WW2 and post-Cold War systems.

Unlike its neighbour to its immediate east, France has never let go of its pride and patriotism (and in many cases, its nationalism as well). It is the only European NATO member with sovereign control over its own nuclear arsenal, for example. The French have a generalized tendency to overstate their own importance on the global stage, which should be obvious to anyone who has ever encountered a French person. This collective self-confidence has created the conditions for a dismissive attitude towards others, something that the French will defend as “well-deserved”. It is this inherent self-confidence that powers this political dynamism because it is teamed up with an introverted political culture as well. Therefore, whatever the French choose to do is important, regardless of what others think of their choices.

The French political scene stretches across the whole of the political spectrum, unlike its neighbour across the Channel, or the big one across the ocean. Political discussion and debate are both wide ranging and very public, making France’s Overton Window more stretched out than most western countries. It has viable political parties and candidates representing not just the centre and centre-right and centre-left, but also the far left, the far right, monarchists, Catholic Traditionalists, Islamists, and so on. Beyond that, it has powerful trade unions that will drop tools at a moment’s notice if the government dares to try to introduce any economic reforms seen as coming at their expense. It has political groupings made up of the remnants for neo-fascist militant groupings. It also has experienced repeated waves of Islamist terror. France has it all.

Even if France is as dynamic as I claim it to be, it is still within the liberal-democratic system that rules today’s “West”. Because of this, France too suffers from many of the same maladies afflicting its neighbours and allies. An obvious first example is deindustrialization as a result of globalization. The French have done a good job protecting certain export sectors such as agriculture, but if you go to the northeast of the country, you find a wasteland. A second example is the growing divide between centre and periphery, whereby more and more power, wealth, and influence is concentrated in the centre. This is compounded in France by the fact that the country is highly centralized when compared to Germany or the USA. A third example is the massive tide of immigration that has flooded the country, something that we will get to soon enough.

It is the fourth example that I would like to draw the most attention to; the erosion of the political centre. France’s administrative state is the perfect example of Burnham’s “Managerial Elite”, not just because of the high level of administrative centralism in France (something that inspired the totalitarianism of fascism and communism), but because their ruling elites are a special caste all themselves, raised from their youth to be part of specific circles that attend the same schools which produce these same managers. Several generations of this method have created this caste that is distant, very distant, from the people that they govern. They are distant culturally, philosophically, economically, socially, and more often than not, geographically from their fellow Frenchmen and women. This distance has only increased over time, and has manifested itself in the huge chasm separating the ruling elites of France from the French people, especially in political terms.

We have seen the centre erode (but not disappear) throughout the continent thanks to the rising tide of populism, and France is no exception to this rule. Successive governments run by the centre/centre-right/centre-left have failed to address the causes of the malaise that has governed the country for decades now. Whether Sarkozy, Hollande, or Macron, the French have been unable to reform their own country in order to give it the necessary jolt to wake it up from its slumber. There are many reasons for this, too many to get into in this essay, but it is the inability of France to correct course that has seen French voters turn to parties outside of the acceptable mainstream in order to seek solutions to the problems that bedevil the country.

The British have the reputation of “muddling through” any kind of political crisis or instability (or even scandal), but the French have done much the same these past few decades. The general trend in French governance has been:

1. a promise of a vast economic structural reform

2. a violent reaction from powerful trade unions to said reform

3. a step-down by the government in the face of these protests

4. rounds of Islamist terrorist attacks

5. unrelenting mass immigration

6. a rise in support for anti-immigration parties, especially the RN

7. the application of the notorious cordon sanitaire¹ to keep the RN out of power

The net effect of all of these points has been to continually punt the ball at every opportunity, or, if you prefer, a repetition of “kicking the can down the road”. This has not made France a better country to live in, nor has it made it stronger or wealthier, but it has preserved both the ruling system and the ruling elites.

This Time Is Different

Every successive punt of the ball is less effective than the previous one. France is nowhere near as powerful globally nor economically as it was during the era of President Chirac. This is best exemplified by both its supplicant Atlanticist foreign policy first introduced by President Sarkozy, and especially by its eviction from large swathes of formerly French-ruled North Africa. Not only is France spinning its wheels, the motor is making very funny sounds that are getting louder and louder.

The Fifth French Republic has a tradition in which the powerful Presidency is paired with a government friendly to the occupier of that office. This has allowed for the smooth sailing of the centralized bureaucratic state² despite the continuously choppier waves in its path. This safeguard has worked….until now.

So what happened to it?