International Criminal Court at The Hague Issues Arrest Warrant for Vladimir Putin

...based on charges for "war crimes in Ukraine"

It wasn’t very difficult to predict that this would end up happening:

Reuters @Reuters

BREAKING: The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of being responsible for war crimes committed in Ukraine trib.al/IifQnOd

In fact it was rather easy.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine are signatories to the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague in The Netherlands. Nor is the USA either. In fact, the USA has a law on the books that says that the President is authorized to send US forces to invade The Netherlands if any American is ever put on trial there for war crimes in order to rescue them.

This is one hell of an escalation in this conflict. It leverages an international institution to which many countries are party to, in order to put the squeeze on the Russians. At the same time, it creates all sorts of diplomatic and legal headaches for countries that have not taken sides in this conflict (and many of those who have done so). The potential knock-on effects here are virtually infinite. It’s an international law minefield.

This development strongly suggests that the neo-conservative faction in the Biden White House has the upper hand at present. Here’s another data point in favour of this conclusion:

Michael Tracey @mtracey

Good to know the most hardcore ideologues are calling the shots on everything

These charges will also have the effect of negatively impacting the legitimacy of the ICC, as others will take notice of how it has been politicized/weaponized. This will be similar to how oil-producing countries in OPEC have lost trust in the USA thanks to its attempts to starve Russia of its oil exports, knowing full well that they too could be targeted one day for the exact same treatment.

Feel free to use this post to spitball on what has just transpired today.