Bold of you to assume Nicc is capable of shame. Also being called the reincarnation of Goebbels is a huge complement. Say what you will, man got results. I wish someone said that about my writing, honestly. Oh well, back to watching the fiftieth video this week of Grad rockets in the sky.
I've made a couple of small edits since hitting the publish button, but they don't affect the overall piece except to lend it a bit more depth in certain paragraphs.
Putin is also a graduate of Klaus Schwab's Global Leaders school. We are being played by both sides, just like we are being played by both political parties, Democrats and Republicans. Both sides have already been hijacked and work together to control us. Our best bet is to stop using their currencies, and adopt governmentless money like Pirate Chain and Monero. Governments use money to control us. We can escape their control by using money they don't control.
I definitely agree that this is such a cynical game played by the Deep Sate and Putin.. they both need each other to justify their respective military budgets ..
However the point Nicolo makes about Nordstream 2 cancelation is also valuable.. US energy suppliers can now take the place of Russia potentially. I am not aware of how the logistics of exporting LNG to Europe works out, but wouldn't this add massively to the energy costs of the Europeans instead of getting it directly from Russia?
Would they have not already thought about this option of getting energy from a friendly regime in the US rather than tying themselves to Putin and give him leverage? The only reason they still went with Putin would have been the economic value of the deal to the EU .. their cheapest option possible
The Deep Statists are obviously happy with the current situation because they now get to demand even larger defense budgets and even more money for their corporate partners
The cavalry, mounted division of the US army, I never made the connection, thanks.
A little known fact about The battle of Little Bighorn - US Calvary General George Custer‘s last words were: “HOLY FUCK…..where did all those Indians come from.”
It would have been even more powerful if it had references links to credible sources. I believe your article says things the way they are. But a lot are calling it's propaganda. They prefer to follow the nonsensical one sided Hollywood narrative.
Yes Probably the definitive article on the situation to date so I'm happy to go along with this so far.And certainly rising well above the assumption of it being mere propaganda ( the refuge of the lazy- minded) Basically Russia and the USA will come out of this as joint -winners and still go their separate successful ways ,the Americans with their enhanced control of the european financial and especially energy markets allied to further expansion of their military arms sales ,and we are also spared the immediate spectacle of nuclear destruction as presumably Putin will be pleased to have retained a semblance of control of Ukraine and will thus be able to save face and assure a period of economic survival due to a close alliance with China which saves his skin in the nick of time ...
Well summed up. Biggest surprise here is Germany's sudden acquiescence on NS2. Couple of questions:
1) How does this impact China's traditional geopolitical stance against breakaway provinces / national sovereignty?
2) My sense is that normie Americans couldn't care less and the screeching is particularly hollow / confined to the regime apparatchiks. Do you concur? what will the "big event" be that truly sweeps domestic regime failures under the rug and catalyzes domestic patriot act part deux?
3) France seems most ripe for a break from GAE - Macron is squeezed from the left (Melechon) and right (Zemmour/Lepen) to reevaluate NATO. They're the most anti woke and have a historical relationship with Russia. Is Macron's "neutrality" just a pre election ploy or is France the optimal weakest link that Russia should earnestly engage?
1. China needs to maintain its arguments vis a vis Taiwan and Xinjiang, so it will not recognize these republics at all. Russia understand this.
2. Fuck if I know.
3. Macron wanted the diplomatic win to position himself as a statesman in the run up to the election. He did not get that. The position that he staked out wasn't far off of that from the USA, so he is still an Atlanticist despite making overtures to European autonomy.
Regarding #2: The Americans with whom I speak, or whose words I've read/heard (other than the Wokerati, etc.), ask "Why should we care about Ukraine's border with Russia, when OUR government doesn't care- or do anything about OUR border with Mexico? Who's kidding whom?" And that's absolutely true. WE don't care about European issues... certainly not NS2, when (a) Germany decommissioned the best energy sources -- nuclear reactors; and (b) Our a$$hole president cut-off OUR best fossil-fuel sources, causing a massive sh*tstorm to rain down on OUR economy. So, no; some Americans pay lip-service to the Ukraine-Russian tete-a-tete, but many do not. Sorry about being long-winded.
Interesting. I disagree with every word of this--including the first part. Nearly everyone I know--liberals and radical-left Americans--is up in arms against Putin/Russia. I've been appalled at how effective the propaganda has been, how ignorant/forgetful people are. Yet I agreed with virtually everything in the original essay, and I see that Soldo endorsed this statement. One factor--there is now rather massive censorship going on in the US (from what I read, also in Russia, probably true).
Main stream media, twitter/social are a dumpster fire. Most Americans can't name their VP or Speaker of the House. And most have not traveled or lived outside of the comforts of the US other than vacation.
No, not literally--I mean they are rallying round the (Ukrainian) flag, expressing outrage at Putin, taking every word from MSM as gospel even if they asked questions in 2003...
Has to happen before November unless they have a solid plan to steal it / prevent conservative candidates from the ballot. Midterms are shaping up to be a red wave so I don't see the regime giving it up that easily..
Evaporated 401K is definitely one of my (many) concerns (also for the future for my kids and grandkids; send us old farts to war! We've lived our lives - we want our kids to have a world to live in!)... I'm 64 and am watching my retirement savings shrinking (and Biden and his fellow commies don't even think I deserve the money I worked for and saved...). I was planning on retiring in 2024 - which gave a much more personal meaning to the phrase "four more years" when I voted for Trump in 2020! Can a red wave in the mid-terms save our country? Only if we get rid of some squishy RINOS and replace them with some true patriots who haven't been in Washington sponging for 40 years...
Silly to think that any (anti)woke posing in whatever direction could be relevant for France vs. Russia relations. Sorry, I meant Gayropa vs. Chad-Russia ofc.
Trying to unpack.. In the battle of humanism v transhumanism (including wokeism) France and Russia are natural allies. Russia's only real counter color revolution play is fanning the latter
France is ripe for a plebeian uprising part deux that consolidates yellow vest angst and a splintered right. Weak spot for the WEF regime hence the EU <> RT blackout. Once real pain begins for the EU, the unified front of yellowblue cheek paint will fade
As we watch power politics, see good called evil and evil called good it points to the Bible and its prophecies. The idea of a mark with the ability to control people was written 2000 years ago. The rise of Russia, China, European Union and Arab bloc powers were written 2500 years ago. IF NOT by a power we call God then how did they know? Just saying, maybe it would be worth taking what the Bible says seriously.
One possible explanation for stopping NS2 certification might be that they need an excuse to get out of CON2 madness. Closing coal and nuclear power plants is pure madness so any excuse to reverse that move could be welcome.
"Biggest surprise here is Germany's sudden acquiescence on NS2." Germany has been a client state since WWII's "West Germany". They're a population that will believe whatever they're told. They also have bitterness of USSR kicking their Nazi ass in the war and getting all the way to Berlin.
They've built up cash reserves valued at over $600 Billion USD, lots of gold as well. They run consistent trade surpluses, have succeeded with import substitution by way of domestic industry to fill in the gap. They have also set up a payment system with China just in case they get kicked out of SWIFT. Rising oil prices due to supply cutoffs only increase the value of their oil. They have become the world's largest wheat exporter, so they can feed themselves if need be.
The question is: what about capital markets? I hope someone else here can answer that question.
As of Feb 26: "ASSETS OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN EU BANKS WHICH AMOUNTS TO $643 BILLION HAVE BEEN FROZEN". (RU has more gold than this, tho)
A comment on ZH: "If they sanctioned the central bank and the transfer agents for Eurobonds then Russia will default on all foreign debt immediately." And: "an inability to receive payments through SWIFT can freeze the flow of goods, services, and commodities like gas or neon in kind."
I'm not sure how accurate it is to say that Russianhaving gotten blocked on SWIFT means they're hamstrung. I've heard the same thing that Niccolo mentioned about a Russia-China payment system using the Euro instead of the Ruble or USD. Interestingly enough, I've been watching the exchange rate for Ruble -> USD and it spiked up to about 174:1 earlier today and has since dropped to 120:1. At least per Tinkoff's website: https://www.tinkoff.ru/about/exchange/
If Russia really couldn't transact because of SWIFT and if the central bank assets were completely frozen, I'd expect the Ruble exchange rate to be skyrocketing into uselessness and banks to be experiencing serious runs. So far, I'm not seeing either of those happen; though, I could just be completely out of the loop.
The other side of the coin is that no one can receive payment from Russia on the debt owed or the payment for services and products cannot be paid to European vendors.
Not even shiploads of LNG will compensate for the lost Russian natgas going forward. It's not just about heating houses, much of German industry relies on gas too. They've just had back-to-back recessions, so the next hit from rapidly rising energy costs is going to be crippling. Sanctions have a significant blowback effect, but that is lost on the self-righteous.
Are there no other pipelines besides NS2? There is natural gas flowing right now? I thought NS2 just bypassed existing lines.
I always chuckle when foreign commenters breezily credit the CIA with effecting anything. They can barely effect a proper shit.
And the prior administration might've advocated for U.S. LNG producers but this administration is not. In fact, they reversed U.S. opposition to NST as one of many middle fingers raised to domestic producers.
There are other pipelines that are flowing at present, some through Ukraine. Russia has preferred long term contracts, but Europe is crazy about the spot price market. This means that reserves are as low as 5% at present in some of these, meaning trouble is ahead.
Biden just got NS2 cancelled when he pushed Scholz in that direction. This administration is opposed to it and has already stated that US LNG combined with others can fill in the gaps.
I agree that Biden just got NS2 canceled. But in March 2021 he canceled all sanctions on NS2 that Trump had imposed. I think the new cancelation is only because, like you wrote, they have no other useful sanctions; and not because Biden wants to help domestic LNG producers. This is a tiny point, not material to your overall discussion
China can't even get its own people to move to the north of China, much less Siberia. China's north continues to lose people year after year after year.
how dare Merkel want the most efficient energy trade for her people? I thought trade promoted peace. Oh yeah, you guys do not want peace. Let go of the grudge!
As WEF young leaders infiltrate the West, how does that influence these large power plays? It feels like multi dimensional chess, where we're looking at the situation from one dimension but the actual play is going on elsewhere. Could be I'm projecting my views of covid/lockdowns onto a field where those individuals aren't as influential?
There is no difference as the current global architecture has been set up by the USA with its allies adhering to it, and those opposed seeking to revise it.
American satrapies like Germany or the UK or Poland or Bulgaria are just branch offices with varying degrees of local autonomy.
Bold of you to assume Nicc is capable of shame. Also being called the reincarnation of Goebbels is a huge complement. Say what you will, man got results. I wish someone said that about my writing, honestly. Oh well, back to watching the fiftieth video this week of Grad rockets in the sky.
You, uh, really lean into this huh?
WTF
I've made a couple of small edits since hitting the publish button, but they don't affect the overall piece except to lend it a bit more depth in certain paragraphs.
Duh, hello?
This war is a scam.
Putin is also a graduate of Klaus Schwab's Global Leaders school. We are being played by both sides, just like we are being played by both political parties, Democrats and Republicans. Both sides have already been hijacked and work together to control us. Our best bet is to stop using their currencies, and adopt governmentless money like Pirate Chain and Monero. Governments use money to control us. We can escape their control by using money they don't control.
I definitely agree that this is such a cynical game played by the Deep Sate and Putin.. they both need each other to justify their respective military budgets ..
However the point Nicolo makes about Nordstream 2 cancelation is also valuable.. US energy suppliers can now take the place of Russia potentially. I am not aware of how the logistics of exporting LNG to Europe works out, but wouldn't this add massively to the energy costs of the Europeans instead of getting it directly from Russia?
Would they have not already thought about this option of getting energy from a friendly regime in the US rather than tying themselves to Putin and give him leverage? The only reason they still went with Putin would have been the economic value of the deal to the EU .. their cheapest option possible
The Deep Statists are obviously happy with the current situation because they now get to demand even larger defense budgets and even more money for their corporate partners
You missed "calvary," which is a religious monument. I think you meant to write "cavalry."
It's the name of the hill where Christ was crucified
The cavalry, mounted division of the US army, I never made the connection, thanks.
A little known fact about The battle of Little Bighorn - US Calvary General George Custer‘s last words were: “HOLY FUCK…..where did all those Indians come from.”
It would have been even more powerful if it had references links to credible sources. I believe your article says things the way they are. But a lot are calling it's propaganda. They prefer to follow the nonsensical one sided Hollywood narrative.
Yes Probably the definitive article on the situation to date so I'm happy to go along with this so far.And certainly rising well above the assumption of it being mere propaganda ( the refuge of the lazy- minded) Basically Russia and the USA will come out of this as joint -winners and still go their separate successful ways ,the Americans with their enhanced control of the european financial and especially energy markets allied to further expansion of their military arms sales ,and we are also spared the immediate spectacle of nuclear destruction as presumably Putin will be pleased to have retained a semblance of control of Ukraine and will thus be able to save face and assure a period of economic survival due to a close alliance with China which saves his skin in the nick of time ...
I forgot to state ...i wish !
Well summed up. Biggest surprise here is Germany's sudden acquiescence on NS2. Couple of questions:
1) How does this impact China's traditional geopolitical stance against breakaway provinces / national sovereignty?
2) My sense is that normie Americans couldn't care less and the screeching is particularly hollow / confined to the regime apparatchiks. Do you concur? what will the "big event" be that truly sweeps domestic regime failures under the rug and catalyzes domestic patriot act part deux?
3) France seems most ripe for a break from GAE - Macron is squeezed from the left (Melechon) and right (Zemmour/Lepen) to reevaluate NATO. They're the most anti woke and have a historical relationship with Russia. Is Macron's "neutrality" just a pre election ploy or is France the optimal weakest link that Russia should earnestly engage?
1. China needs to maintain its arguments vis a vis Taiwan and Xinjiang, so it will not recognize these republics at all. Russia understand this.
2. Fuck if I know.
3. Macron wanted the diplomatic win to position himself as a statesman in the run up to the election. He did not get that. The position that he staked out wasn't far off of that from the USA, so he is still an Atlanticist despite making overtures to European autonomy.
Regarding #2: The Americans with whom I speak, or whose words I've read/heard (other than the Wokerati, etc.), ask "Why should we care about Ukraine's border with Russia, when OUR government doesn't care- or do anything about OUR border with Mexico? Who's kidding whom?" And that's absolutely true. WE don't care about European issues... certainly not NS2, when (a) Germany decommissioned the best energy sources -- nuclear reactors; and (b) Our a$$hole president cut-off OUR best fossil-fuel sources, causing a massive sh*tstorm to rain down on OUR economy. So, no; some Americans pay lip-service to the Ukraine-Russian tete-a-tete, but many do not. Sorry about being long-winded.
Interesting. I disagree with every word of this--including the first part. Nearly everyone I know--liberals and radical-left Americans--is up in arms against Putin/Russia. I've been appalled at how effective the propaganda has been, how ignorant/forgetful people are. Yet I agreed with virtually everything in the original essay, and I see that Soldo endorsed this statement. One factor--there is now rather massive censorship going on in the US (from what I read, also in Russia, probably true).
Main stream media, twitter/social are a dumpster fire. Most Americans can't name their VP or Speaker of the House. And most have not traveled or lived outside of the comforts of the US other than vacation.
This is so true, sadly.
Up in arms?
Literally?
Really.
In Ukraine itself?
No, not literally--I mean they are rallying round the (Ukrainian) flag, expressing outrage at Putin, taking every word from MSM as gospel even if they asked questions in 2003...
What event catalyzes domestic patriot act part deux?
The elections in November in the USA.
Has to happen before November unless they have a solid plan to steal it / prevent conservative candidates from the ballot. Midterms are shaping up to be a red wave so I don't see the regime giving it up that easily..
How about gas prices in the US heading north of $5/gallon. Where is our pain "pinch point"?
I would've said retired boomers not being able to travel to Italy (Behar?) but I'd say inflation + evaporated 401k
Evaporated 401K is definitely one of my (many) concerns (also for the future for my kids and grandkids; send us old farts to war! We've lived our lives - we want our kids to have a world to live in!)... I'm 64 and am watching my retirement savings shrinking (and Biden and his fellow commies don't even think I deserve the money I worked for and saved...). I was planning on retiring in 2024 - which gave a much more personal meaning to the phrase "four more years" when I voted for Trump in 2020! Can a red wave in the mid-terms save our country? Only if we get rid of some squishy RINOS and replace them with some true patriots who haven't been in Washington sponging for 40 years...
Silly to think that any (anti)woke posing in whatever direction could be relevant for France vs. Russia relations. Sorry, I meant Gayropa vs. Chad-Russia ofc.
Trying to unpack.. In the battle of humanism v transhumanism (including wokeism) France and Russia are natural allies. Russia's only real counter color revolution play is fanning the latter
there are frontlines one can draw, eg oligarchs against plebeians
France is ripe for a plebeian uprising part deux that consolidates yellow vest angst and a splintered right. Weak spot for the WEF regime hence the EU <> RT blackout. Once real pain begins for the EU, the unified front of yellowblue cheek paint will fade
As we watch power politics, see good called evil and evil called good it points to the Bible and its prophecies. The idea of a mark with the ability to control people was written 2000 years ago. The rise of Russia, China, European Union and Arab bloc powers were written 2500 years ago. IF NOT by a power we call God then how did they know? Just saying, maybe it would be worth taking what the Bible says seriously.
Maybe it's better to take the originals seriously. Rather than the facsimile.
One possible explanation for stopping NS2 certification might be that they need an excuse to get out of CON2 madness. Closing coal and nuclear power plants is pure madness so any excuse to reverse that move could be welcome.
"Biggest surprise here is Germany's sudden acquiescence on NS2." Germany has been a client state since WWII's "West Germany". They're a population that will believe whatever they're told. They also have bitterness of USSR kicking their Nazi ass in the war and getting all the way to Berlin.
Respectfully, how has Russia sanctions-proofed its economy?
They've built up cash reserves valued at over $600 Billion USD, lots of gold as well. They run consistent trade surpluses, have succeeded with import substitution by way of domestic industry to fill in the gap. They have also set up a payment system with China just in case they get kicked out of SWIFT. Rising oil prices due to supply cutoffs only increase the value of their oil. They have become the world's largest wheat exporter, so they can feed themselves if need be.
The question is: what about capital markets? I hope someone else here can answer that question.
As of Feb 26: "ASSETS OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN EU BANKS WHICH AMOUNTS TO $643 BILLION HAVE BEEN FROZEN". (RU has more gold than this, tho)
A comment on ZH: "If they sanctioned the central bank and the transfer agents for Eurobonds then Russia will default on all foreign debt immediately." And: "an inability to receive payments through SWIFT can freeze the flow of goods, services, and commodities like gas or neon in kind."
Shitz gonna fly
I'm not sure how accurate it is to say that Russianhaving gotten blocked on SWIFT means they're hamstrung. I've heard the same thing that Niccolo mentioned about a Russia-China payment system using the Euro instead of the Ruble or USD. Interestingly enough, I've been watching the exchange rate for Ruble -> USD and it spiked up to about 174:1 earlier today and has since dropped to 120:1. At least per Tinkoff's website: https://www.tinkoff.ru/about/exchange/
If Russia really couldn't transact because of SWIFT and if the central bank assets were completely frozen, I'd expect the Ruble exchange rate to be skyrocketing into uselessness and banks to be experiencing serious runs. So far, I'm not seeing either of those happen; though, I could just be completely out of the loop.
The other side of the coin is that no one can receive payment from Russia on the debt owed or the payment for services and products cannot be paid to European vendors.
Just an update. This article explains how it could be much worse
https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/robbed-again-west-freezes-russias
Yes! I’ve been waiting.
I read this after seeing one of our UK newspapers print the radius of a nuclear explosion over London. The contrast in insight is quite something.
Nordstream 2 did always feel like something that went against the rules of the simulation.
NS2 is now politicized by the Germans, meaning that it is dead. The Germans are willing to pay the price, it seems.
how many more storybook forests do they have left to raze for windmills?
Not even shiploads of LNG will compensate for the lost Russian natgas going forward. It's not just about heating houses, much of German industry relies on gas too. They've just had back-to-back recessions, so the next hit from rapidly rising energy costs is going to be crippling. Sanctions have a significant blowback effect, but that is lost on the self-righteous.
We'll see if the Mittlestand and unions can withstand the pressure. In any case, certainly a boon for AfD
A brilliant summation of the situation. Victoria Nuland should be indicted. She thinks it is still 1969.
Why do so many of her ethnic group hate Russia so much?
Freeland in Canada, too -- with a vengeance.
Are there no other pipelines besides NS2? There is natural gas flowing right now? I thought NS2 just bypassed existing lines.
I always chuckle when foreign commenters breezily credit the CIA with effecting anything. They can barely effect a proper shit.
And the prior administration might've advocated for U.S. LNG producers but this administration is not. In fact, they reversed U.S. opposition to NST as one of many middle fingers raised to domestic producers.
There are other pipelines that are flowing at present, some through Ukraine. Russia has preferred long term contracts, but Europe is crazy about the spot price market. This means that reserves are as low as 5% at present in some of these, meaning trouble is ahead.
Biden just got NS2 cancelled when he pushed Scholz in that direction. This administration is opposed to it and has already stated that US LNG combined with others can fill in the gaps.
I agree that Biden just got NS2 canceled. But in March 2021 he canceled all sanctions on NS2 that Trump had imposed. I think the new cancelation is only because, like you wrote, they have no other useful sanctions; and not because Biden wants to help domestic LNG producers. This is a tiny point, not material to your overall discussion
I also forgot to mention that others, like Qatar, have most of their future gas capacity already tied up in long-term contracts to serve East Asia.
What do you follow for research on energy Mr. Soldo?
Lots of places. ZH is a good aggregator, but a lot of what they share is low quality/biased/agenda-driven.
Excellent as usual.
Merci
You may have already covered it but did you see this piece by Richard Hanania? https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/russia-as-the-great-satan-in-the?utm_source=url
Yeah. He's saying what I and others have said for years.
Merkel was Putin's whore. Now that she's gone, Germany can get back on track. All their energy supplies will be met by the USA.
As far as Russia's detente with China, I'm sure this is the last thing Putin wants. China is salivating at Russia's immense mineral rich east.
China can't even get its own people to move to the north of China, much less Siberia. China's north continues to lose people year after year after year.
how dare Merkel want the most efficient energy trade for her people? I thought trade promoted peace. Oh yeah, you guys do not want peace. Let go of the grudge!
As WEF young leaders infiltrate the West, how does that influence these large power plays? It feels like multi dimensional chess, where we're looking at the situation from one dimension but the actual play is going on elsewhere. Could be I'm projecting my views of covid/lockdowns onto a field where those individuals aren't as influential?
That's just the next generation of leaders, instructed by today's Globalists.
So not separate from the GAE? Interesting, I had thought of it as more transformational
There is no difference as the current global architecture has been set up by the USA with its allies adhering to it, and those opposed seeking to revise it.
American satrapies like Germany or the UK or Poland or Bulgaria are just branch offices with varying degrees of local autonomy.
If I ever spoke to anyone about politics, I would absolutely demand they read this. As it is, most everyone I know is too stupid. Alas!
Thank you for this breakdown. Important shit for us here in the US to reckon with.
You think this is good and objective analysis? Come on, man.
I didn’t say that.
It’s simply a perspective we should be considering.
Can you offer a better analysis?
of course not, Jaime. He'll just reply with memes like snake island.
What are the chances of Germany reversing its position on NS2 in the near term? Zero?
Close to zero due to politicization. But then again, who knows?
2023 update: yes. they're now officially zero.
(of course, I realize no one needed me to tell them that!)
Great article buddy, thank you
Russia and China have just cut off exports of fertilizer until summer 22, at least.
Some of this seems to be to lower the price of fertilizer directly.
That leaves India with 1/3 of worlds urea, and Canada for potash.
For the urbanites fertilizer is necessary to grow food, which doesn't actually come from stores.
How does this affect my Starbucks latte?
Excellent.