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Not that long ago, the daily focus was on the civil war in Syria, before that it was in the civil war in Lebanon. For an extended period of time the Kurds were on the front page vis a vis both Türkiye and Iraq. Instead of the daily, myopic snapshots of filtered events, I would like for someone to provide an accurate, unbiased, overview of what has happened in the Levant / Middle-East since, say, just after the last big war, when Israel still occupied the Sinai Peninsula. Could you do that, or direct me to someone who can? It’s so easy to loose perspective & forget historical context.
Witnessing folks cope about the magnitude of the strike reminds me very much of the syria hot days on both sides.
While history informs us that decapitation strikes are far more often than not ineffective in destroying a group completely, it remains to be seen what kind of replacement "does pick up the phone". In less centralized groups it has traditionally led to more radical cells taking the reins (think ahrar al sham's decapitation leading their more moderate scholars right into the arms of Nusra, culminating in the army of conquest merger circa 2014-2015)
Iran was given an ultimatum - respond (doesnt even have to be symetrically) or tiptoe the line. I think we understand very clearly what tiptoeing results in now.
This entire thing reeks of horrible opsec and infiltration at the highest levels. Their leadership should've been far more spread out given the presence of turbo american assets gathering in the region. Incompetence doesn't even begin the explanation.
Either the new dogs bark or they go out with a whimper. Looking much more likely to be the 2nd.
Thanks for writing this. I saw a Note from Lorenzo Warby this morning that makes a related point. I have been in an echo chamber of sorts when it comes to the question of whether Israel's latest escalations were sound strategically, with practically everyone I read or listen to saying that it would backfire for one reason or the other, but your post and Warby's Note are really making me rethink that. Not saying Israel's actions were morally good, but there definitely appears to be a solid method to the madness. Very insightful analysis!
Well seriously since when do mercenaries work by a moral code? Aren't these just paid paramilitaries? I confess I know nothing about Hezbollah really. But if they are anything like AQ or ISIS they work with booty and money.
What I said, however, is irrelevant to the truth of that statement (that many Muslims are angry at Israel for some legitimate reasons). That's not necessarily the motivation nor operative actions of Islamist mercenaries/paramilitaries. Even with legit anger, people can still operate on the basis of greed and betrayal, especially if it's part of the standard.
There are plenty of Lebanese, Syrians and Iranians who benefit from seeing Hizbollah destroyed. Including elements within both the Syrian and Iranian governments. Hizbollah is a drain on Iranian resources and the Lebanese Sh'ites recruited to the riot police in Tehran and other cities during the crackdown on the students a few years back were not popular.
And a few more besides. It seems to me there are many obvious questions that aren't being asked about this asymmetric attack sequence. I don't think we've ever seen anything like it.
"Israel was ceded escalation dominance, thanks to the USA having its back via arms, diplomatic cover, media reporting, and those powerful naval vessels parked off of the coast of the Eastern Mediterranean (and do not discount intelligence passed to the Israelis)."
I am curious how intelligence is gathered independently of the Israelis, and passed to them, given the perfect alignment between the two countries in the goal of maintaining US hegemony?
I keep reading about Unit 8200 staffing Silicon Valley, and how it's a good thing, because they have the right experience and it Goes Without Saying that their goals align with our goals. Does the Israeli lobby not already staff our intelligence services, as they do our executive branch, and Wall Street and media and academia? Who passes to whom?
Israelis really make war seem like 4D chess, it’s impressive. They destroyed their communication network( with all the pager and radio explosions)which forced the leadership to meet in more up close and personal ways in the midst of the chaos. Drop a few bombs on the meetings and boom, their command structure is now gone. This is why most government have designated survivors.
Are the Israelis that good at intelligence / covert ops, or do Hamas and Hezbollah have terrible OpSec? (I realize these possibilities are not mutually exclusive.)
From what I read, they knew his location all along. Problem was that he was in the mountains and they couldn’t launch a precision strike. That’s why they needed him in somewhere like Beirut
From a sheer tactical point of view, obliterating the entire command structure of your enemy in a few days, remotely, is pretty impressive. Albeit, I do weep for the civilian casualties.
Could Iran's 'restraint' actually be due to the fact that they don't know what to do? Maybe they also have succumbed to 'last war syndrome'. Hezbollah held their own against Israel in 2006 and maybe it was lazily assumed in Tehran that they could do so again. But, the Israelis learned lessons and changed their game. The Iranians didn't.
Israel may have won this battle but it has lost the real war: everyone has seen Hind Rajab. Everyone has seen Israeli soldiers kicking Gazans off a rooftop. Their world reputation is now below South Africa's at the height of apartheid. They have given up any chance of ever existing as a "normal" nation.
Any acting troupe could have performed the "atrocities" I saw. Given the propaganda value, it would be surprising if enactments were not a major part of the "resistance" strategy.
Russia didn't do shit about the US taking over a huge part of their ally Syria illegally. Russia also looked away from Israel doing strikes on Syria and only reacted when a Russian plane was shot down.
Is there really a battle of East vs West or is it really just an Orwellian cold war? 😂
Russia helped Syria to defeat ISIS, survive insurgency and recover territory. They did not get into the fight with the US that occupies eastern parts of the country and did not get into Syrian conflict with Israel - that conflict started in 70ies and will probably never get resolved.
Why should Russia waste the lives of their soldiers for the Ba'ath Party? Russia's interest in Syria is mostly confined to naval facilities at Tartous and an as irbase at Khmeimim.
Currently radicalizing an entire new generation of Arabs and Muslims around the world. There’s no reason to think that what comes after will be “better” - historically it’s been worse. That part of it aside - the death of any semblance of an “rule-based international order” surely has its own long term implications. Who knew I was still an idealist? such a brutal exercise of power on the one hand and such a complete failure of competence on the other…vindication of the nothings happening doctrine.
Radicalising? Sunnis are openly celebrating in Syria as are opponents of the regime in Iran itself. Much of the wider region is sick of the jihadis and wants them crushed.
That’s not true - what people are talking about between themselves and what seems to be the opinion of ‘the street’ are two different things. If you believe Arabs are happy about what’s happening right now you can’t understand them at all.
Which Arabs? The Arab world is overwhelmingly hostile to Israel, but there are substantial numbers in key countries that are not. The difficukty of gauging what people think is extraordinarily difficult.
Substantial numbers are not hostile to Israel? Okay - I don’t know what to say to that. It’s simply not true. Some of the governments certainly, but the people themselves are hugely hostile.
Maybe Lebanon can return to what it once was - a peaceful, Christian country.
The actual "genocides" in the Middle East have been of Christians and Jews. Don't debate me with feelings, just look at population numbers across many countries over the years.
It is refreshing to see a political leader use his nation’s military only when necessary to protect his people, and only after overt provocation. Israel has a unique geological position, and no other country faces anti-semitism as an existential threat. Still, other world leaders—at least those in ostensibly democratic societies—could learn from this example. Defend your own and ignore the UN / Davos jet set who tacitly support global intifada types (terrorism chic, context, and all).
Sir, I am not sure what the antecedent of “their tribe” is in your formulation so cannot to respond to that point. So I may be silly, but likely not; you are being obscure.
And to be more clear on the last sentence in my main post, I mean my country—the United States. It has been “fighting them there so we don’t have to fight them here,” promoting the spread of “universal principles of democracy,” and fighting for the territorial integrity of other countries for at least last 23 years. It has been absurd, costly, and unjustifiable.
Nicolo you didn't mention the speech Benjamin Netanyahu gave in the UN, moments before the air strike, wich I believe is key to understanding his administrations actions.
He basically laid down his vision for the whole region contrasting between "The Curse" for the Iran-Syria-Iraq axis and "The Blessing" for the rest of the middle east.
He basically called for normalisation with the Saudis and partnership in trade, than he extended his hand by crushing one major arm of their mutual enemy.
The Abraham Accords are the one thing that could render the hit to Israel's reputation irrelevant. If America and the Saudis are on your side, it doesn't matter how many leftoid governments sign letters condemning you
I have no doubt that Israel had massive help from US and other intelligence agencies in planning this. It is interesting that even though the resistance in Gaza is not as powerful and sophisticated as Hezbollah, it has managed to maintain some level of security. Sinwar is still around and the resistance has not confirmed the death of Dief. Israel may have made some impressive tactical gains, and may even prevail in the short term, but it will not be able to come back reputation-wise from what it has done in the last year. One has only to see how many UN delegations walked out on Netanyahu’s unhinged speech. Despite an impressive win, I really believe along with Ilan Pappe and Shir Hever that we are witnessing the last days of the zionist project. Historically Israel will be remembered as a racist and violent apartheid state that caused numerous harm to its neighbours.
A balanced and reserved piece, free from the hysteria on offer elsewhere.
There is no good reason to suppose that the US has been sharing intelligence with Israel. The Obama Administration leaked information to Lebanon about Mossad networks within the country and there have recently been reports on the BBC Arabic language service that the chief Hizbollah negotiator admited receiving advance information on Israeli military strikes directly from the Obama Administration. These reports were confirmed by Lebanese officials.
It is also clear that the Israelis gave the US only vague hints of a major operation just prior to the pager sabotage incident. Netanyahu's trip to the UN was timed to lull Nasrallah into complaisancy so it is likely that the US had no advance knowledge of what the Israelis were doing. The tone of US officials following Nasrallah's death was weirdly subdued, which is telling given Hizbollah's long history of violence against American targets such as the Marine barracks in Beirut and the Khobar Towers.
There are also indications that US intelligence is not cooperating or coordinating with Israel in Gaza. A recent report by a top Australian military man into the death of an Australian aid worker makes it clear that the US based NGO (run by a crony of Hilary's) misled the Israelis about the weapons used by the "aid" convoy which had opened fired at the Israelis in the first place. The Australian report carefully protects the identities of those who misled the Israelis about the danger to their forces on the ground. It does the same for the gunmen. At best this reveals that the US has a good deal of contempt for the lives of the soldiers of its allies. At worst that Washington is intriguing with people on the ground in Gaza for so r purpose that they need to keep secret from Israel.
IMHO The state of cooperation between the two countries is not as good as you, Niccolo, appear to believe.
It is worth remembering that the US intelligence services have been seriously compromised by jihadist forces in the past and no-one trusts the US now. The Somalis who attacked the US army in the Clinton years were in posession of signalling codes provided by an asset within American intelligence. The Israelis would be insane to place too much confidence in the US.
In any case, Nasrallah's death is a phenomenal blow to Iran. Their ability to pressure Israel is weakening. If Iran comes to the defence of Hizbollah they risk an Israe,I attack in their oil facilities. This would wreck the Iranian economy and quite possibly bring down the regime itself.
Netanyahu's boldness is reminiscent of Begin at his best: the attack on Saddam's nuclear facillties at Oseirak (which drew savage rebukes from the White House and infuriated George Schuktz and Caspar Weinberger). The campaign in Lebanon has been successful so far, proving that a spirited and aggressive defence pays off.
Hit the like button at the top or bottom of this page to like this entry. Use the share and/or re-stack buttons to share this across social media. Leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so.
And don't forget to subscribe if you haven't done so already.
Not that long ago, the daily focus was on the civil war in Syria, before that it was in the civil war in Lebanon. For an extended period of time the Kurds were on the front page vis a vis both Türkiye and Iraq. Instead of the daily, myopic snapshots of filtered events, I would like for someone to provide an accurate, unbiased, overview of what has happened in the Levant / Middle-East since, say, just after the last big war, when Israel still occupied the Sinai Peninsula. Could you do that, or direct me to someone who can? It’s so easy to loose perspective & forget historical context.
Lemme see what I can find and remind me later.
It’s about water and oil/gas.
20-30 years ago there was a baby boom across the Arab world. Now all those young men are entering middle age and the fight is leaving them
Witnessing folks cope about the magnitude of the strike reminds me very much of the syria hot days on both sides.
While history informs us that decapitation strikes are far more often than not ineffective in destroying a group completely, it remains to be seen what kind of replacement "does pick up the phone". In less centralized groups it has traditionally led to more radical cells taking the reins (think ahrar al sham's decapitation leading their more moderate scholars right into the arms of Nusra, culminating in the army of conquest merger circa 2014-2015)
Iran was given an ultimatum - respond (doesnt even have to be symetrically) or tiptoe the line. I think we understand very clearly what tiptoeing results in now.
This entire thing reeks of horrible opsec and infiltration at the highest levels. Their leadership should've been far more spread out given the presence of turbo american assets gathering in the region. Incompetence doesn't even begin the explanation.
Either the new dogs bark or they go out with a whimper. Looking much more likely to be the 2nd.
The only real point from "copers" that I consider valid is that the next gen of leadership might be less into restraint. Only time will tell.
Thanks for writing this. I saw a Note from Lorenzo Warby this morning that makes a related point. I have been in an echo chamber of sorts when it comes to the question of whether Israel's latest escalations were sound strategically, with practically everyone I read or listen to saying that it would backfire for one reason or the other, but your post and Warby's Note are really making me rethink that. Not saying Israel's actions were morally good, but there definitely appears to be a solid method to the madness. Very insightful analysis!
What I am most interested in is the following:
1. How did Israel manage to gather all this intelligence and penetrate Hezbollah so thoroughly?
2. How much intelligence did the USA send to Israel?
I don't know if I will ever get answers to these questions.
"...How did Israel manage to gather all this intelligence and penetrate Hezbollah so thoroughly?..."
Because Hezbollah is not fighting a moral battle. Hezbollah is corrupt and therefor easy to bribe and infiltrate.
Well seriously since when do mercenaries work by a moral code? Aren't these just paid paramilitaries? I confess I know nothing about Hezbollah really. But if they are anything like AQ or ISIS they work with booty and money.
What I said, however, is irrelevant to the truth of that statement (that many Muslims are angry at Israel for some legitimate reasons). That's not necessarily the motivation nor operative actions of Islamist mercenaries/paramilitaries. Even with legit anger, people can still operate on the basis of greed and betrayal, especially if it's part of the standard.
There is no fortress that would not surrender to a donkey loaded with bags of gold.
There are plenty of Lebanese, Syrians and Iranians who benefit from seeing Hizbollah destroyed. Including elements within both the Syrian and Iranian governments. Hizbollah is a drain on Iranian resources and the Lebanese Sh'ites recruited to the riot police in Tehran and other cities during the crackdown on the students a few years back were not popular.
Stay tuned to Mark Bisone's blog (markbisone.substack.com). I think he's going to address those questions in an upcoming post.
And a few more besides. It seems to me there are many obvious questions that aren't being asked about this asymmetric attack sequence. I don't think we've ever seen anything like it.
"Israel was ceded escalation dominance, thanks to the USA having its back via arms, diplomatic cover, media reporting, and those powerful naval vessels parked off of the coast of the Eastern Mediterranean (and do not discount intelligence passed to the Israelis)."
I am curious how intelligence is gathered independently of the Israelis, and passed to them, given the perfect alignment between the two countries in the goal of maintaining US hegemony?
I keep reading about Unit 8200 staffing Silicon Valley, and how it's a good thing, because they have the right experience and it Goes Without Saying that their goals align with our goals. Does the Israeli lobby not already staff our intelligence services, as they do our executive branch, and Wall Street and media and academia? Who passes to whom?
Useless post: "Tale" does no wagging.
This post is fine, but do me a favour and use less inflammatory language in your posts. I've had to remove a few. Apologies and thanks.
Israelis really make war seem like 4D chess, it’s impressive. They destroyed their communication network( with all the pager and radio explosions)which forced the leadership to meet in more up close and personal ways in the midst of the chaos. Drop a few bombs on the meetings and boom, their command structure is now gone. This is why most government have designated survivors.
Are the Israelis that good at intelligence / covert ops, or do Hamas and Hezbollah have terrible OpSec? (I realize these possibilities are not mutually exclusive.)
It’s definitely both. They were able to exploit the haphazard way Hezbollah was reacting to the pager attack. Tbf if I were in that situation I probably wouldn’t be planning my every move and would most likely would have went to headquarters to grasp what’s been happening. Also it seemed that Israel tried to lure Hezbollah to their headquarters in Beirut https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pms-trip-to-ny-part-of-diversion-so-nasrallah-would-think-he-was-safe-report/
From what I read, they knew his location all along. Problem was that he was in the mountains and they couldn’t launch a precision strike. That’s why they needed him in somewhere like Beirut
From a sheer tactical point of view, obliterating the entire command structure of your enemy in a few days, remotely, is pretty impressive. Albeit, I do weep for the civilian casualties.
Could Iran's 'restraint' actually be due to the fact that they don't know what to do? Maybe they also have succumbed to 'last war syndrome'. Hezbollah held their own against Israel in 2006 and maybe it was lazily assumed in Tehran that they could do so again. But, the Israelis learned lessons and changed their game. The Iranians didn't.
Israel may have won this battle but it has lost the real war: everyone has seen Hind Rajab. Everyone has seen Israeli soldiers kicking Gazans off a rooftop. Their world reputation is now below South Africa's at the height of apartheid. They have given up any chance of ever existing as a "normal" nation.
Yes I have long wondered why Isreal puts so little effort into media relations - Hamas may have lost the war but they won the PR battle
Much good it's done them.
Israel doesn't care, as long as their American thug will squelch any dissent.
Any acting troupe could have performed the "atrocities" I saw. Given the propaganda value, it would be surprising if enactments were not a major part of the "resistance" strategy.
no one cares, rightly
They've never been a 'normal' nation.
As usual, Russia and China sit and do nothing.
Russia didn't do shit about the US taking over a huge part of their ally Syria illegally. Russia also looked away from Israel doing strikes on Syria and only reacted when a Russian plane was shot down.
Is there really a battle of East vs West or is it really just an Orwellian cold war? 😂
Why would Russia do anything here?
Perhaps because Iran is their ally?
Like with Ukraine and US/nato intervention, they could state how what Israel is trying to do with Iran won't be ignored.
"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle."
But they are on good terms with Israel.
So Russia is on good terms with a country that attacks their ally Syria and hit their own military plane. Isn't that fkin idiotic?
It's just like when WW2 happened, Switzerland and other nations stayed neutral, still doing business with the Nazis.
Russia helped Syria to defeat ISIS, survive insurgency and recover territory. They did not get into the fight with the US that occupies eastern parts of the country and did not get into Syrian conflict with Israel - that conflict started in 70ies and will probably never get resolved.
Why should Russia waste the lives of their soldiers for the Ba'ath Party? Russia's interest in Syria is mostly confined to naval facilities at Tartous and an as irbase at Khmeimim.
Currently radicalizing an entire new generation of Arabs and Muslims around the world. There’s no reason to think that what comes after will be “better” - historically it’s been worse. That part of it aside - the death of any semblance of an “rule-based international order” surely has its own long term implications. Who knew I was still an idealist? such a brutal exercise of power on the one hand and such a complete failure of competence on the other…vindication of the nothings happening doctrine.
Radicalising? Sunnis are openly celebrating in Syria as are opponents of the regime in Iran itself. Much of the wider region is sick of the jihadis and wants them crushed.
That’s not true - what people are talking about between themselves and what seems to be the opinion of ‘the street’ are two different things. If you believe Arabs are happy about what’s happening right now you can’t understand them at all.
Which Arabs? The Arab world is overwhelmingly hostile to Israel, but there are substantial numbers in key countries that are not. The difficukty of gauging what people think is extraordinarily difficult.
Substantial numbers are not hostile to Israel? Okay - I don’t know what to say to that. It’s simply not true. Some of the governments certainly, but the people themselves are hugely hostile.
Maybe Lebanon can return to what it once was - a peaceful, Christian country.
The actual "genocides" in the Middle East have been of Christians and Jews. Don't debate me with feelings, just look at population numbers across many countries over the years.
Don't leave out ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh. It's part of the picture too.
I had heard they used to refer to Lebanon as the Paris of the Middle East...
It is refreshing to see a political leader use his nation’s military only when necessary to protect his people, and only after overt provocation. Israel has a unique geological position, and no other country faces anti-semitism as an existential threat. Still, other world leaders—at least those in ostensibly democratic societies—could learn from this example. Defend your own and ignore the UN / Davos jet set who tacitly support global intifada types (terrorism chic, context, and all).
You don't regard Israel at all as having any liability as a provoker itself?
No sir, I do not.
The Davos Jet Set are disproportionately members of their tribe, of course they don't worry about them. What a silly thing to even mention.
Also, what other world leaders are you thinking of? Russia hardly pays any attention to that lot, or do you not consider it suffciently "democratic"?
Sir, I am not sure what the antecedent of “their tribe” is in your formulation so cannot to respond to that point. So I may be silly, but likely not; you are being obscure.
And to be more clear on the last sentence in my main post, I mean my country—the United States. It has been “fighting them there so we don’t have to fight them here,” promoting the spread of “universal principles of democracy,” and fighting for the territorial integrity of other countries for at least last 23 years. It has been absurd, costly, and unjustifiable.
I really don’t think of Russia much.
"Iran has already calculated that it cannot escalate without risking the entry of the USA into the conflict. "
Israel seeks to goad Hezbollah and Iran into a response, in order that it can run screaming to its American thug.
If Israel does not get the response it wants, it simply behaves more and more outrageously, until it does.
Nobody "wonders" at garbage posted by a sixth-grader. "Nevermore."
After calling Jews "subhuman vermin," this child complains of ad hominem . . .
And NR "moderators" smile in approval?
Hi Andras! I don't do live moderating, so sometimes shitty comments stay up for a bit.
All right, Niccolo.
Actuall, I don't (or shouldn't) mind too much. After all, similar garbage is thrown around on this "elite" (bc expensive; 68K/year) campus.
But still. I come to this site for intelligent discussion. I welcome, even enjoy, opposing views. But this Raven person . . .
Well, I see the shitty comment has been removed. Grazie!
Nicolo you didn't mention the speech Benjamin Netanyahu gave in the UN, moments before the air strike, wich I believe is key to understanding his administrations actions.
He basically laid down his vision for the whole region contrasting between "The Curse" for the Iran-Syria-Iraq axis and "The Blessing" for the rest of the middle east.
He basically called for normalisation with the Saudis and partnership in trade, than he extended his hand by crushing one major arm of their mutual enemy.
This is correct. The Abraham Accords are very, very bad news for Iran.
The Abraham Accords are the one thing that could render the hit to Israel's reputation irrelevant. If America and the Saudis are on your side, it doesn't matter how many leftoid governments sign letters condemning you
Excellent commentary. Wonder if a response by either Hezbollah or Iran is being dialed in for October 7th, 2024
I have no doubt that Israel had massive help from US and other intelligence agencies in planning this. It is interesting that even though the resistance in Gaza is not as powerful and sophisticated as Hezbollah, it has managed to maintain some level of security. Sinwar is still around and the resistance has not confirmed the death of Dief. Israel may have made some impressive tactical gains, and may even prevail in the short term, but it will not be able to come back reputation-wise from what it has done in the last year. One has only to see how many UN delegations walked out on Netanyahu’s unhinged speech. Despite an impressive win, I really believe along with Ilan Pappe and Shir Hever that we are witnessing the last days of the zionist project. Historically Israel will be remembered as a racist and violent apartheid state that caused numerous harm to its neighbours.
A balanced and reserved piece, free from the hysteria on offer elsewhere.
There is no good reason to suppose that the US has been sharing intelligence with Israel. The Obama Administration leaked information to Lebanon about Mossad networks within the country and there have recently been reports on the BBC Arabic language service that the chief Hizbollah negotiator admited receiving advance information on Israeli military strikes directly from the Obama Administration. These reports were confirmed by Lebanese officials.
It is also clear that the Israelis gave the US only vague hints of a major operation just prior to the pager sabotage incident. Netanyahu's trip to the UN was timed to lull Nasrallah into complaisancy so it is likely that the US had no advance knowledge of what the Israelis were doing. The tone of US officials following Nasrallah's death was weirdly subdued, which is telling given Hizbollah's long history of violence against American targets such as the Marine barracks in Beirut and the Khobar Towers.
There are also indications that US intelligence is not cooperating or coordinating with Israel in Gaza. A recent report by a top Australian military man into the death of an Australian aid worker makes it clear that the US based NGO (run by a crony of Hilary's) misled the Israelis about the weapons used by the "aid" convoy which had opened fired at the Israelis in the first place. The Australian report carefully protects the identities of those who misled the Israelis about the danger to their forces on the ground. It does the same for the gunmen. At best this reveals that the US has a good deal of contempt for the lives of the soldiers of its allies. At worst that Washington is intriguing with people on the ground in Gaza for so r purpose that they need to keep secret from Israel.
IMHO The state of cooperation between the two countries is not as good as you, Niccolo, appear to believe.
It is worth remembering that the US intelligence services have been seriously compromised by jihadist forces in the past and no-one trusts the US now. The Somalis who attacked the US army in the Clinton years were in posession of signalling codes provided by an asset within American intelligence. The Israelis would be insane to place too much confidence in the US.
In any case, Nasrallah's death is a phenomenal blow to Iran. Their ability to pressure Israel is weakening. If Iran comes to the defence of Hizbollah they risk an Israe,I attack in their oil facilities. This would wreck the Iranian economy and quite possibly bring down the regime itself.
Netanyahu's boldness is reminiscent of Begin at his best: the attack on Saddam's nuclear facillties at Oseirak (which drew savage rebukes from the White House and infuriated George Schuktz and Caspar Weinberger). The campaign in Lebanon has been successful so far, proving that a spirited and aggressive defence pays off.
Thanks bro.