Are the Israelis that good at intelligence / covert ops, or do Hamas and Hezbollah have terrible OpSec? (I realize these possibilities are not mutually exclusive.)
Not to take anything away from Israeli intelligence, but apparently it took more than a few bombs. The US Naval Institute estimates it took 60-80 -- first dozens of unguided 'dumb' bombs to reduce and displace the rubble of the above ground apartment buildings, then a dozen more 'bunker busters' to get at the Hezbollah leadership hiding beneath them:
And they did get them. But it wasn't exactly a precision strike. And it was only possible with 100% air superiority. Something to keep in mind if Israel threatens to do the same to Iran's leadership, which unlike in Lebanon now has Russian AD systems up and running.
Lebanon is a divided country and Hezbollah has lots of adversaries. So I suppose it isn't hard for Israel to find some friends who want to support the enemy of their enemy. Not to mention that much of the footwork may be done by Americans.
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Not that long ago, the daily focus was on the civil war in Syria, before that it was in the civil war in Lebanon. For an extended period of time the Kurds were on the front page vis a vis both Türkiye and Iraq. Instead of the daily, myopic snapshots of filtered events, I would like for someone to provide an accurate, unbiased, overview of what has happened in the Levant / Middle-East since, say, just after the last big war, when Israel still occupied the Sinai Peninsula. Could you do that, or direct me to someone who can? It’s so easy to loose perspective & forget historical context.
Witnessing folks cope about the magnitude of the strike reminds me very much of the syria hot days on both sides.
While history informs us that decapitation strikes are far more often than not ineffective in destroying a group completely, it remains to be seen what kind of replacement "does pick up the phone". In less centralized groups it has traditionally led to more radical cells taking the reins (think ahrar al sham's decapitation leading their more moderate scholars right into the arms of Nusra, culminating in the army of conquest merger circa 2014-2015)
Iran was given an ultimatum - respond (doesnt even have to be symetrically) or tiptoe the line. I think we understand very clearly what tiptoeing results in now.
This entire thing reeks of horrible opsec and infiltration at the highest levels. Their leadership should've been far more spread out given the presence of turbo american assets gathering in the region. Incompetence doesn't even begin the explanation.
Either the new dogs bark or they go out with a whimper. Looking much more likely to be the 2nd.
Framing the last few months as restraint irks me, because the evacuation of northern Israel was obviously humiliating, and any delay in response seemed like obvious procrastination, which would inevitably lead to an Israeli offensive. Once again it seems that the so called resistance lack a theory of mind.
Thanks for writing this. I saw a Note from Lorenzo Warby this morning that makes a related point. I have been in an echo chamber of sorts when it comes to the question of whether Israel's latest escalations were sound strategically, with practically everyone I read or listen to saying that it would backfire for one reason or the other, but your post and Warby's Note are really making me rethink that. Not saying Israel's actions were morally good, but there definitely appears to be a solid method to the madness. Very insightful analysis!
Well seriously since when do mercenaries work by a moral code? Aren't these just paid paramilitaries? I confess I know nothing about Hezbollah really. But if they are anything like AQ or ISIS they work with booty and money.
What I said, however, is irrelevant to the truth of that statement (that many Muslims are angry at Israel for some legitimate reasons). That's not necessarily the motivation nor operative actions of Islamist mercenaries/paramilitaries. Even with legit anger, people can still operate on the basis of greed and betrayal, especially if it's part of the standard.
There are plenty of Lebanese, Syrians and Iranians who benefit from seeing Hizbollah destroyed. Including elements within both the Syrian and Iranian governments. Hizbollah is a drain on Iranian resources and the Lebanese Sh'ites recruited to the riot police in Tehran and other cities during the crackdown on the students a few years back were not popular.
And a few more besides. It seems to me there are many obvious questions that aren't being asked about this asymmetric attack sequence. I don't think we've ever seen anything like it.
I suspect Israel has been working on Hezbollah for at least 20 years. And radically shifted their attention to asymmetric warfare against them. Since the failure of 2006 and the fact that the Lebanese state remains a complete farce and failure, you can do a lot in 20 years, especially when about 2/3ds of Lebanese citizens HATE Hezbollah with the burning fire of a thousand suns.
"Israel was ceded escalation dominance, thanks to the USA having its back via arms, diplomatic cover, media reporting, and those powerful naval vessels parked off of the coast of the Eastern Mediterranean (and do not discount intelligence passed to the Israelis)."
I am curious how intelligence is gathered independently of the Israelis, and passed to them, given the perfect alignment between the two countries in the goal of maintaining US hegemony?
I keep reading about Unit 8200 staffing Silicon Valley, and how it's a good thing, because they have the right experience and it Goes Without Saying that their goals align with our goals. Does the Israeli lobby not already staff our intelligence services, as they do our executive branch, and Wall Street and media and academia? Who passes to whom?
“Does the Israeli lobby not already staff our intelligence services, as they do our executive branch, and Wall Street and media and academia? Who passes to whom?”
Jewish presence in our executive branch is undeniable, Wall Street, media, somewhat so. Can’t speak to intelligence services but given the apparent belief system of those services, influence there would seem limited.
That granted, their presence is both blessing and a curse. To my knowledge they are smart yes, but not a homogeneous group. Their ilk likely include postmodernist radicals, “save us, chosen by God types”, and solid, moderate pragmatists.
While I support Israel’s right to exist, defend itself, and make war — which is always horrible — in doing so, I am concerned the actions of their radicals within the US do more harm than good.
To be clear, I assume that being of the Jewish faith does not imply anything more than simply that, and that the vast majority of that population are not radicals. However, the Pareto principle is true, 20% of people are responsible for 80% of productivity good and bad. And it is that 20% to which I believe you refer.
From a sheer tactical point of view, obliterating the entire command structure of your enemy in a few days, remotely, is pretty impressive. Albeit, I do weep for the civilian casualties.
Could Iran's 'restraint' actually be due to the fact that they don't know what to do? Maybe they also have succumbed to 'last war syndrome'. Hezbollah held their own against Israel in 2006 and maybe it was lazily assumed in Tehran that they could do so again. But, the Israelis learned lessons and changed their game. The Iranians didn't.
Israel may have won this battle but it has lost the real war: everyone has seen Hind Rajab. Everyone has seen Israeli soldiers kicking Gazans off a rooftop. Their world reputation is now below South Africa's at the height of apartheid. They have given up any chance of ever existing as a "normal" nation.
Any acting troupe could have performed the "atrocities" I saw. Given the propaganda value, it would be surprising if enactments were not a major part of the "resistance" strategy.
I have also seen staged videos; Arabs dressed as Israeli soldiers or Israeli's dressed as Arabs commiting attrocities; "dead" children scratching themselves; and loads of other propaganda....so I take those "everyone has seen" statements with a freighter's worth of salt. As another poaster mentioned, the issue is heavy on emotion and frustratingly light on facts. It is really impossible to know what is really going on.
Russia didn't do shit about the US taking over a huge part of their ally Syria illegally. Russia also looked away from Israel doing strikes on Syria and only reacted when a Russian plane was shot down.
Is there really a battle of East vs West or is it really just an Orwellian cold war? 😂
Russia helped Syria to defeat ISIS, survive insurgency and recover territory. They did not get into the fight with the US that occupies eastern parts of the country and did not get into Syrian conflict with Israel - that conflict started in 70ies and will probably never get resolved.
Why should Russia waste the lives of their soldiers for the Ba'ath Party? Russia's interest in Syria is mostly confined to naval facilities at Tartous and an as irbase at Khmeimim.
They don't need to send soldiers at first. All Russia needs to do is tell Israel that they will not accept their aggressive behavior. What's the point about world power when it only gets used for invasions etc but not to prevent war?
Russia might as well just hide in the corner and dream that the current situation won't mess everything up in the middle east.
What happens if Russia lets their "enemy" the US keep on creating havoc in Syria with their illegal occupation? It's like there's 2 rival gangs that are occupying Syria and they're ok with each other being there, as long as each one gets their cut.
There is close military cooperation between Iran and Russia. I wouldn't surprised if Moscow was advising Iran about its options and helping it to strengthen its army for a future confrontation.
Don't forget this is a different neighborhood than we're used to in the West. Nobody's talking about Turkey in this discussion but Turkey’s meddling everywhere, including Lebanon, Gaza, Israel. They play both sides off against the middle even though they're NATO members. They're buying missiles from Russia (and bargaining with the US) over it now, and facilitating trade in Russian oil/ evasion of sanctions. And the Saydis under the present regime which no longer supports AQ/ IS are their enemy. Russia is a chess player in all of this. This is a neighborhood with knives everywhere. It is not hegemonic but a question of always balancing and leveraging positions
Currently radicalizing an entire new generation of Arabs and Muslims around the world. There’s no reason to think that what comes after will be “better” - historically it’s been worse. That part of it aside - the death of any semblance of an “rule-based international order” surely has its own long term implications. Who knew I was still an idealist? such a brutal exercise of power on the one hand and such a complete failure of competence on the other…vindication of the nothings happening doctrine.
Radicalising? Sunnis are openly celebrating in Syria as are opponents of the regime in Iran itself. Much of the wider region is sick of the jihadis and wants them crushed.
That’s not true - what people are talking about between themselves and what seems to be the opinion of ‘the street’ are two different things. If you believe Arabs are happy about what’s happening right now you can’t understand them at all.
Which Arabs? The Arab world is overwhelmingly hostile to Israel, but there are substantial numbers in key countries that are not. The difficulty of gauging what people think is extraordinarily difficult.
Emotion is flypaper for small minds. Governments have no choice but to pay attention to a whole range of stuff. If they don't they collapse. The demise of Nasrallah is illustrative of the risks involved when you allow emotion or its intellectual distillate (ideology) to take priority over one's judgement. Nasrallah learned that one the hardest way possible,
The Arab governments are certainly filled with people who hate Israel but their masters are constrained by realities, above all the bond market, infrastructure, military capacity etc. Making assumptions about geopolitics via a linear process fixated on emotion not reliable.
As for specicic hatreds per se, note that Hizbollah killed Harari, the Lebanese PM. Harari had family connections in the Gulf. In addition, Hizbollah killed any number of Syrians with tribal affiliations that extend into the Gulf. The complexity of inter-Arab feuds is lost on those who think that war and peace hinges on coffee shop politics.
Worth noting that Khomeini's politics and the Iranian/Saudi rivalry was caught up with family legacy. His great-grandfather had been the sole male survivor of the sack of Najaf by raiders from down south. That raid was part of a series that reshaped the Mid East in the 19th century. If I remember correctly, the attack on Najaf was a Wahhabi undertaking though I may be wrong.
Substantial numbers are not hostile to Israel? Okay - I don’t know what to say to that. It’s simply not true. Some of the governments certainly, but the people themselves are hugely hostile.
You are 100% right. I was thinking of the peak decision-makers in the Gulf, plus the oligarchs in Lebanon itself and the mukhabarat leadership types. I should have made that clear.
Iran itself is something else yet again. But the Iranians and the Kurds are not Arabs.
The Muslims prone to be being radicalized already hated Israel and the West before. You can't get more than 100% of your population radicalized. Anyways, the birth rates across the Middle East are dropping fast. Their median ages are going up. Its easier to produce Muslim religious nutjobs when each woman has like 10 children each, and all of them under the age of 15. Much harder when TFR is 2.0 and the median age is 25. Middle East is not going to be Norway tomorrow. But a few generations later, when the demographics of the Middle East looks like Japan, who will still be fighting? Israel just needs to hold out for that.
Maybe Lebanon can return to what it once was - a peaceful, Christian country.
The actual "genocides" in the Middle East have been of Christians and Jews. Don't debate me with feelings, just look at population numbers across many countries over the years.
It is refreshing to see a political leader use his nation’s military only when necessary to protect his people, and only after overt provocation. Israel has a unique geological position, and no other country faces anti-semitism as an existential threat. Still, other world leaders—at least those in ostensibly democratic societies—could learn from this example. Defend your own and ignore the UN / Davos jet set who tacitly support global intifada types (terrorism chic, context, and all).
Sir, I am not sure what the antecedent of “their tribe” is in your formulation so cannot to respond to that point. So I may be silly, but likely not; you are being obscure.
And to be more clear on the last sentence in my main post, I mean my country—the United States. It has been “fighting them there so we don’t have to fight them here,” promoting the spread of “universal principles of democracy,” and fighting for the territorial integrity of other countries for at least last 23 years. It has been absurd, costly, and unjustifiable.
And we, the US, has foolishly forced “democracy” on people with cultures not a fit for it. Each time it has blown up in our face. It will continue to do so.
Nicolo you didn't mention the speech Benjamin Netanyahu gave in the UN, moments before the air strike, wich I believe is key to understanding his administrations actions.
He basically laid down his vision for the whole region contrasting between "The Curse" for the Iran-Syria-Iraq axis and "The Blessing" for the rest of the middle east.
He basically called for normalisation with the Saudis and partnership in trade, than he extended his hand by crushing one major arm of their mutual enemy.
The Abraham Accords are the one thing that could render the hit to Israel's reputation irrelevant. If America and the Saudis are on your side, it doesn't matter how many leftoid governments sign letters condemning you
Israel could live normally in its region if it was prepared to do so. It isn't. It is at its core racist and expansionist. Gaza is at its core an ethnic cleansing operation. Its popularity in Israel shows that that country has no desire to live as equal humans together with its neighbors.
I have no doubt that Israel had massive help from US and other intelligence agencies in planning this. It is interesting that even though the resistance in Gaza is not as powerful and sophisticated as Hezbollah, it has managed to maintain some level of security. Sinwar is still around and the resistance has not confirmed the death of Dief. Israel may have made some impressive tactical gains, and may even prevail in the short term, but it will not be able to come back reputation-wise from what it has done in the last year. One has only to see how many UN delegations walked out on Netanyahu’s unhinged speech. Despite an impressive win, I really believe along with Ilan Pappe and Shir Hever that we are witnessing the last days of the zionist project. Historically Israel will be remembered as a racist and violent apartheid state that caused numerous harm to its neighbours.
A balanced and reserved piece, free from the hysteria on offer elsewhere.
There is no good reason to suppose that the US has been sharing intelligence with Israel. The Obama Administration leaked information to Lebanon about Mossad networks within the country and there have recently been reports on the BBC Arabic language service that the chief Hizbollah negotiator admited receiving advance information on Israeli military strikes directly from the Obama Administration. These reports were confirmed by Lebanese officials.
It is also clear that the Israelis gave the US only vague hints of a major operation just prior to the pager sabotage incident. Netanyahu's trip to the UN was timed to lull Nasrallah into complaisancy so it is likely that the US had no advance knowledge of what the Israelis were doing. The tone of US officials following Nasrallah's death was weirdly subdued, which is telling given Hizbollah's long history of violence against American targets such as the Marine barracks in Beirut and the Khobar Towers.
There are also indications that US intelligence is not cooperating or coordinating with Israel in Gaza. A recent report by a top Australian military man into the death of an Australian aid worker makes it clear that the US based NGO (run by a crony of Hilary's) misled the Israelis about the weapons used by the "aid" convoy which had opened fired at the Israelis in the first place. The Australian report carefully protects the identities of those who misled the Israelis about the danger to their forces on the ground. It does the same for the gunmen. At best this reveals that the US has a good deal of contempt for the lives of the soldiers of its allies. At worst that Washington is intriguing with people on the ground in Gaza for so for purpose that they need to keep secret from Israel.
IMHO The state of cooperation between the two countries is not as good as you, Niccolo, appear to believe.
It is worth remembering that the US intelligence services have been seriously compromised by jihadist forces in the past and no-one trusts the US now. The Somalis who attacked the US army in the Clinton years were in posession of signalling codes provided by an asset within American intelligence. The Israelis would be insane to place too much confidence in the US.
In any case, Nasrallah's death is a phenomenal blow to Iran. Their ability to pressure Israel is weakening. If Iran comes to the defence of Hizbollah they risk an IsraeIi attack in their oil facilities. This would wreck the Iranian economy and quite possibly bring down the regime itself.
Netanyahu's boldness is reminiscent of Begin at his best: the attack on Saddam's nuclear facillties at Oseirak (which drew savage rebukes from the White House and infuriated George Schuktz and Caspar Weinberger). The campaign in Lebanon has been successful so far, proving that a spirited and aggressive defence pays off.
I don't envy anyone writing publicly on the subject. Like South Africa, Northern Ireland or Russia this stuff just brings out the crazy in so many people. I once seriously thought of pursuing a professional focus on the region when I was younger but was put off by the sheer nastiness of the relevant experts that I knew personally. At a temperamental level I find the blend of dogmatism and emotion terrifying.
Spot on. I frankly worry about the state of relationships within the US intelligence community re Middle Eastern politics. I had a friend in grad school who I believe went into the CIA (could never get a straight answer out of him about who he was ultimately employed by), but it was back a couple of decades ago when to hear the recruitment talks the CIA was like a friendly debating society. I worry that today, after such bizarre turns in academia, the "friendly" part of it is long gone, along even with a common position on what US interests in the region actually are, let alone how to achieve them. Or even, astonishingly, if US interests should guide intelligence work.
Are the Israelis that good at intelligence / covert ops, or do Hamas and Hezbollah have terrible OpSec? (I realize these possibilities are not mutually exclusive.)
"Drop a few bombs on the meetings and boom..."
Not to take anything away from Israeli intelligence, but apparently it took more than a few bombs. The US Naval Institute estimates it took 60-80 -- first dozens of unguided 'dumb' bombs to reduce and displace the rubble of the above ground apartment buildings, then a dozen more 'bunker busters' to get at the Hezbollah leadership hiding beneath them:
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/october/closer-look-israels-use-80-bunker-buster-jdams-beirut
And they did get them. But it wasn't exactly a precision strike. And it was only possible with 100% air superiority. Something to keep in mind if Israel threatens to do the same to Iran's leadership, which unlike in Lebanon now has Russian AD systems up and running.
Lebanon is a divided country and Hezbollah has lots of adversaries. So I suppose it isn't hard for Israel to find some friends who want to support the enemy of their enemy. Not to mention that much of the footwork may be done by Americans.
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Not that long ago, the daily focus was on the civil war in Syria, before that it was in the civil war in Lebanon. For an extended period of time the Kurds were on the front page vis a vis both Türkiye and Iraq. Instead of the daily, myopic snapshots of filtered events, I would like for someone to provide an accurate, unbiased, overview of what has happened in the Levant / Middle-East since, say, just after the last big war, when Israel still occupied the Sinai Peninsula. Could you do that, or direct me to someone who can? It’s so easy to loose perspective & forget historical context.
Lemme see what I can find and remind me later.
It’s about water and oil/gas.
Plus, mutual hatred
They don’t talk, negotiate, or share with true goodwill and long-term perspective. At this point they have burnt all possible bridges.
I agree, so there’s really nothing left but a fight to the end. I stand with Israel.
I stand with trying again from a clean slate because no side can ultimately win.
20-30 years ago there was a baby boom across the Arab world. Now all those young men are entering middle age and the fight is leaving them
Witnessing folks cope about the magnitude of the strike reminds me very much of the syria hot days on both sides.
While history informs us that decapitation strikes are far more often than not ineffective in destroying a group completely, it remains to be seen what kind of replacement "does pick up the phone". In less centralized groups it has traditionally led to more radical cells taking the reins (think ahrar al sham's decapitation leading their more moderate scholars right into the arms of Nusra, culminating in the army of conquest merger circa 2014-2015)
Iran was given an ultimatum - respond (doesnt even have to be symetrically) or tiptoe the line. I think we understand very clearly what tiptoeing results in now.
This entire thing reeks of horrible opsec and infiltration at the highest levels. Their leadership should've been far more spread out given the presence of turbo american assets gathering in the region. Incompetence doesn't even begin the explanation.
Either the new dogs bark or they go out with a whimper. Looking much more likely to be the 2nd.
The only real point from "copers" that I consider valid is that the next gen of leadership might be less into restraint. Only time will tell.
Framing the last few months as restraint irks me, because the evacuation of northern Israel was obviously humiliating, and any delay in response seemed like obvious procrastination, which would inevitably lead to an Israeli offensive. Once again it seems that the so called resistance lack a theory of mind.
Thanks for writing this. I saw a Note from Lorenzo Warby this morning that makes a related point. I have been in an echo chamber of sorts when it comes to the question of whether Israel's latest escalations were sound strategically, with practically everyone I read or listen to saying that it would backfire for one reason or the other, but your post and Warby's Note are really making me rethink that. Not saying Israel's actions were morally good, but there definitely appears to be a solid method to the madness. Very insightful analysis!
What I am most interested in is the following:
1. How did Israel manage to gather all this intelligence and penetrate Hezbollah so thoroughly?
2. How much intelligence did the USA send to Israel?
I don't know if I will ever get answers to these questions.
"...How did Israel manage to gather all this intelligence and penetrate Hezbollah so thoroughly?..."
Because Hezbollah is not fighting a moral battle. Hezbollah is corrupt and therefor easy to bribe and infiltrate.
Well seriously since when do mercenaries work by a moral code? Aren't these just paid paramilitaries? I confess I know nothing about Hezbollah really. But if they are anything like AQ or ISIS they work with booty and money.
What I said, however, is irrelevant to the truth of that statement (that many Muslims are angry at Israel for some legitimate reasons). That's not necessarily the motivation nor operative actions of Islamist mercenaries/paramilitaries. Even with legit anger, people can still operate on the basis of greed and betrayal, especially if it's part of the standard.
There is no fortress that would not surrender to a donkey loaded with bags of gold.
Lebanese have a mercenary streak.
Michael Greenberg, I think you’re right it might be that simple. These people are corrupt.
There are plenty of Lebanese, Syrians and Iranians who benefit from seeing Hizbollah destroyed. Including elements within both the Syrian and Iranian governments. Hizbollah is a drain on Iranian resources and the Lebanese Sh'ites recruited to the riot police in Tehran and other cities during the crackdown on the students a few years back were not popular.
Stay tuned to Mark Bisone's blog (markbisone.substack.com). I think he's going to address those questions in an upcoming post.
And a few more besides. It seems to me there are many obvious questions that aren't being asked about this asymmetric attack sequence. I don't think we've ever seen anything like it.
There are some reports that suggest US involvement.
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1840070813598310778
The US Air Force's AWACS aircrafts, which operated off the Lebanese coast during Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah HQs, are not operating today.
Why ? Because they never operate in this area, except yesterday between 17h30 to 19h30 local time.
Israel targeted Nasrallah at 18h30.
I suspect Israel has been working on Hezbollah for at least 20 years. And radically shifted their attention to asymmetric warfare against them. Since the failure of 2006 and the fact that the Lebanese state remains a complete farce and failure, you can do a lot in 20 years, especially when about 2/3ds of Lebanese citizens HATE Hezbollah with the burning fire of a thousand suns.
"Israel was ceded escalation dominance, thanks to the USA having its back via arms, diplomatic cover, media reporting, and those powerful naval vessels parked off of the coast of the Eastern Mediterranean (and do not discount intelligence passed to the Israelis)."
I am curious how intelligence is gathered independently of the Israelis, and passed to them, given the perfect alignment between the two countries in the goal of maintaining US hegemony?
I keep reading about Unit 8200 staffing Silicon Valley, and how it's a good thing, because they have the right experience and it Goes Without Saying that their goals align with our goals. Does the Israeli lobby not already staff our intelligence services, as they do our executive branch, and Wall Street and media and academia? Who passes to whom?
Useless post: "Tale" does no wagging.
This post is fine, but do me a favour and use less inflammatory language in your posts. I've had to remove a few. Apologies and thanks.
“Does the Israeli lobby not already staff our intelligence services, as they do our executive branch, and Wall Street and media and academia? Who passes to whom?”
Jewish presence in our executive branch is undeniable, Wall Street, media, somewhat so. Can’t speak to intelligence services but given the apparent belief system of those services, influence there would seem limited.
That granted, their presence is both blessing and a curse. To my knowledge they are smart yes, but not a homogeneous group. Their ilk likely include postmodernist radicals, “save us, chosen by God types”, and solid, moderate pragmatists.
While I support Israel’s right to exist, defend itself, and make war — which is always horrible — in doing so, I am concerned the actions of their radicals within the US do more harm than good.
To be clear, I assume that being of the Jewish faith does not imply anything more than simply that, and that the vast majority of that population are not radicals. However, the Pareto principle is true, 20% of people are responsible for 80% of productivity good and bad. And it is that 20% to which I believe you refer.
From a sheer tactical point of view, obliterating the entire command structure of your enemy in a few days, remotely, is pretty impressive. Albeit, I do weep for the civilian casualties.
Could Iran's 'restraint' actually be due to the fact that they don't know what to do? Maybe they also have succumbed to 'last war syndrome'. Hezbollah held their own against Israel in 2006 and maybe it was lazily assumed in Tehran that they could do so again. But, the Israelis learned lessons and changed their game. The Iranians didn't.
Perhaps Russia has placed a restraining hand on Iran's back?
Israel may have won this battle but it has lost the real war: everyone has seen Hind Rajab. Everyone has seen Israeli soldiers kicking Gazans off a rooftop. Their world reputation is now below South Africa's at the height of apartheid. They have given up any chance of ever existing as a "normal" nation.
Yes I have long wondered why Isreal puts so little effort into media relations - Hamas may have lost the war but they won the PR battle
Much good it's done them.
Israel doesn't care, as long as their American thug will squelch any dissent.
Any acting troupe could have performed the "atrocities" I saw. Given the propaganda value, it would be surprising if enactments were not a major part of the "resistance" strategy.
no one cares, rightly
Rightly indeed
They've never been a 'normal' nation.
I've yet to see anyone describe the abnormality properly.
A Nation based on a religion. That is certainly counter to the prevailing norm of multiculturalism. It’s open to attack based on that.
I’m in favour of it. I think the Jews are special case. I also think multiculturalism is horseshit.
I have also seen staged videos; Arabs dressed as Israeli soldiers or Israeli's dressed as Arabs commiting attrocities; "dead" children scratching themselves; and loads of other propaganda....so I take those "everyone has seen" statements with a freighter's worth of salt. As another poaster mentioned, the issue is heavy on emotion and frustratingly light on facts. It is really impossible to know what is really going on.
As usual, Russia and China sit and do nothing.
Russia didn't do shit about the US taking over a huge part of their ally Syria illegally. Russia also looked away from Israel doing strikes on Syria and only reacted when a Russian plane was shot down.
Is there really a battle of East vs West or is it really just an Orwellian cold war? 😂
Why would Russia do anything here?
Perhaps because Iran is their ally?
Like with Ukraine and US/nato intervention, they could state how what Israel is trying to do with Iran won't be ignored.
"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle."
But they are on good terms with Israel.
So Russia is on good terms with a country that attacks their ally Syria and hit their own military plane. Isn't that fkin idiotic?
It's just like when WW2 happened, Switzerland and other nations stayed neutral, still doing business with the Nazis.
Russia helped Syria to defeat ISIS, survive insurgency and recover territory. They did not get into the fight with the US that occupies eastern parts of the country and did not get into Syrian conflict with Israel - that conflict started in 70ies and will probably never get resolved.
So they helped Syria with one enemy but still Syria is fked by having US and Israel interference in their country.
Russia is a shitty ally.
That hasn't blocked Israel from harming Russia:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/17/politics/syrian-regime-shoots-down-russian-plane/index.html
Why should Russia waste the lives of their soldiers for the Ba'ath Party? Russia's interest in Syria is mostly confined to naval facilities at Tartous and an as irbase at Khmeimim.
They don't need to send soldiers at first. All Russia needs to do is tell Israel that they will not accept their aggressive behavior. What's the point about world power when it only gets used for invasions etc but not to prevent war?
Russia might as well just hide in the corner and dream that the current situation won't mess everything up in the middle east.
What happens if Russia lets their "enemy" the US keep on creating havoc in Syria with their illegal occupation? It's like there's 2 rival gangs that are occupying Syria and they're ok with each other being there, as long as each one gets their cut.
There is close military cooperation between Iran and Russia. I wouldn't surprised if Moscow was advising Iran about its options and helping it to strengthen its army for a future confrontation.
Don't forget this is a different neighborhood than we're used to in the West. Nobody's talking about Turkey in this discussion but Turkey’s meddling everywhere, including Lebanon, Gaza, Israel. They play both sides off against the middle even though they're NATO members. They're buying missiles from Russia (and bargaining with the US) over it now, and facilitating trade in Russian oil/ evasion of sanctions. And the Saydis under the present regime which no longer supports AQ/ IS are their enemy. Russia is a chess player in all of this. This is a neighborhood with knives everywhere. It is not hegemonic but a question of always balancing and leveraging positions
Currently radicalizing an entire new generation of Arabs and Muslims around the world. There’s no reason to think that what comes after will be “better” - historically it’s been worse. That part of it aside - the death of any semblance of an “rule-based international order” surely has its own long term implications. Who knew I was still an idealist? such a brutal exercise of power on the one hand and such a complete failure of competence on the other…vindication of the nothings happening doctrine.
Radicalising? Sunnis are openly celebrating in Syria as are opponents of the regime in Iran itself. Much of the wider region is sick of the jihadis and wants them crushed.
That’s not true - what people are talking about between themselves and what seems to be the opinion of ‘the street’ are two different things. If you believe Arabs are happy about what’s happening right now you can’t understand them at all.
Which Arabs? The Arab world is overwhelmingly hostile to Israel, but there are substantial numbers in key countries that are not. The difficulty of gauging what people think is extraordinarily difficult.
They might not love Iran but they hate Israel more.
Emotion is flypaper for small minds. Governments have no choice but to pay attention to a whole range of stuff. If they don't they collapse. The demise of Nasrallah is illustrative of the risks involved when you allow emotion or its intellectual distillate (ideology) to take priority over one's judgement. Nasrallah learned that one the hardest way possible,
The Arab governments are certainly filled with people who hate Israel but their masters are constrained by realities, above all the bond market, infrastructure, military capacity etc. Making assumptions about geopolitics via a linear process fixated on emotion not reliable.
As for specicic hatreds per se, note that Hizbollah killed Harari, the Lebanese PM. Harari had family connections in the Gulf. In addition, Hizbollah killed any number of Syrians with tribal affiliations that extend into the Gulf. The complexity of inter-Arab feuds is lost on those who think that war and peace hinges on coffee shop politics.
Worth noting that Khomeini's politics and the Iranian/Saudi rivalry was caught up with family legacy. His great-grandfather had been the sole male survivor of the sack of Najaf by raiders from down south. That raid was part of a series that reshaped the Mid East in the 19th century. If I remember correctly, the attack on Najaf was a Wahhabi undertaking though I may be wrong.
Yes, Arab leaders need to follow realpolitik. But they also know that the Arab leader who manages to wipe Israel of the map will gain eternal glory.
I'm borrowing the "intellectual distillate" insight, thanks!
Substantial numbers are not hostile to Israel? Okay - I don’t know what to say to that. It’s simply not true. Some of the governments certainly, but the people themselves are hugely hostile.
You are 100% right. I was thinking of the peak decision-makers in the Gulf, plus the oligarchs in Lebanon itself and the mukhabarat leadership types. I should have made that clear.
Iran itself is something else yet again. But the Iranians and the Kurds are not Arabs.
The Muslims prone to be being radicalized already hated Israel and the West before. You can't get more than 100% of your population radicalized. Anyways, the birth rates across the Middle East are dropping fast. Their median ages are going up. Its easier to produce Muslim religious nutjobs when each woman has like 10 children each, and all of them under the age of 15. Much harder when TFR is 2.0 and the median age is 25. Middle East is not going to be Norway tomorrow. But a few generations later, when the demographics of the Middle East looks like Japan, who will still be fighting? Israel just needs to hold out for that.
Maybe Lebanon can return to what it once was - a peaceful, Christian country.
The actual "genocides" in the Middle East have been of Christians and Jews. Don't debate me with feelings, just look at population numbers across many countries over the years.
Don't leave out ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh. It's part of the picture too.
I had heard they used to refer to Lebanon as the Paris of the Middle East...
Switzerland of the Middle East. Lebanon has always been a mosaic of communities.
I remember when Lebanon was one of the heart locations for belly dance!
Demography is destiny. When did the trouble in Lebanon started?
A start (can't guarantee the accuracy of Wikipedia of course)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War
Cope harder
It is refreshing to see a political leader use his nation’s military only when necessary to protect his people, and only after overt provocation. Israel has a unique geological position, and no other country faces anti-semitism as an existential threat. Still, other world leaders—at least those in ostensibly democratic societies—could learn from this example. Defend your own and ignore the UN / Davos jet set who tacitly support global intifada types (terrorism chic, context, and all).
You don't regard Israel at all as having any liability as a provoker itself?
No sir, I do not.
The Davos Jet Set are disproportionately members of their tribe, of course they don't worry about them. What a silly thing to even mention.
Also, what other world leaders are you thinking of? Russia hardly pays any attention to that lot, or do you not consider it suffciently "democratic"?
Sir, I am not sure what the antecedent of “their tribe” is in your formulation so cannot to respond to that point. So I may be silly, but likely not; you are being obscure.
And to be more clear on the last sentence in my main post, I mean my country—the United States. It has been “fighting them there so we don’t have to fight them here,” promoting the spread of “universal principles of democracy,” and fighting for the territorial integrity of other countries for at least last 23 years. It has been absurd, costly, and unjustifiable.
I really don’t think of Russia much.
And we, the US, has foolishly forced “democracy” on people with cultures not a fit for it. Each time it has blown up in our face. It will continue to do so.
"Iran has already calculated that it cannot escalate without risking the entry of the USA into the conflict. "
Israel seeks to goad Hezbollah and Iran into a response, in order that it can run screaming to its American thug.
If Israel does not get the response it wants, it simply behaves more and more outrageously, until it does.
Nobody "wonders" at garbage posted by a sixth-grader. "Nevermore."
After calling Jews "subhuman vermin," this child complains of ad hominem . . .
And NR "moderators" smile in approval?
Hi Andras! I don't do live moderating, so sometimes shitty comments stay up for a bit.
All right, Niccolo.
Actuall, I don't (or shouldn't) mind too much. After all, similar garbage is thrown around on this "elite" (bc expensive; 68K/year) campus.
But still. I come to this site for intelligent discussion. I welcome, even enjoy, opposing views. But this Raven person . . .
Well, I see the shitty comment has been removed. Grazie!
Nicolo you didn't mention the speech Benjamin Netanyahu gave in the UN, moments before the air strike, wich I believe is key to understanding his administrations actions.
He basically laid down his vision for the whole region contrasting between "The Curse" for the Iran-Syria-Iraq axis and "The Blessing" for the rest of the middle east.
He basically called for normalisation with the Saudis and partnership in trade, than he extended his hand by crushing one major arm of their mutual enemy.
This is correct. The Abraham Accords are very, very bad news for Iran.
The Abraham Accords are the one thing that could render the hit to Israel's reputation irrelevant. If America and the Saudis are on your side, it doesn't matter how many leftoid governments sign letters condemning you
Israel could live normally in its region if it was prepared to do so. It isn't. It is at its core racist and expansionist. Gaza is at its core an ethnic cleansing operation. Its popularity in Israel shows that that country has no desire to live as equal humans together with its neighbors.
Excellent commentary. Wonder if a response by either Hezbollah or Iran is being dialed in for October 7th, 2024
Assemble the beautiful virgins for October 8th.
Nothing ever happens
October 9th and the beautiful virgins are dying of loneliness.
. . .
Nah, they're enjoying one more day of peace and freedom.
I have no doubt that Israel had massive help from US and other intelligence agencies in planning this. It is interesting that even though the resistance in Gaza is not as powerful and sophisticated as Hezbollah, it has managed to maintain some level of security. Sinwar is still around and the resistance has not confirmed the death of Dief. Israel may have made some impressive tactical gains, and may even prevail in the short term, but it will not be able to come back reputation-wise from what it has done in the last year. One has only to see how many UN delegations walked out on Netanyahu’s unhinged speech. Despite an impressive win, I really believe along with Ilan Pappe and Shir Hever that we are witnessing the last days of the zionist project. Historically Israel will be remembered as a racist and violent apartheid state that caused numerous harm to its neighbours.
A balanced and reserved piece, free from the hysteria on offer elsewhere.
There is no good reason to suppose that the US has been sharing intelligence with Israel. The Obama Administration leaked information to Lebanon about Mossad networks within the country and there have recently been reports on the BBC Arabic language service that the chief Hizbollah negotiator admited receiving advance information on Israeli military strikes directly from the Obama Administration. These reports were confirmed by Lebanese officials.
It is also clear that the Israelis gave the US only vague hints of a major operation just prior to the pager sabotage incident. Netanyahu's trip to the UN was timed to lull Nasrallah into complaisancy so it is likely that the US had no advance knowledge of what the Israelis were doing. The tone of US officials following Nasrallah's death was weirdly subdued, which is telling given Hizbollah's long history of violence against American targets such as the Marine barracks in Beirut and the Khobar Towers.
There are also indications that US intelligence is not cooperating or coordinating with Israel in Gaza. A recent report by a top Australian military man into the death of an Australian aid worker makes it clear that the US based NGO (run by a crony of Hilary's) misled the Israelis about the weapons used by the "aid" convoy which had opened fired at the Israelis in the first place. The Australian report carefully protects the identities of those who misled the Israelis about the danger to their forces on the ground. It does the same for the gunmen. At best this reveals that the US has a good deal of contempt for the lives of the soldiers of its allies. At worst that Washington is intriguing with people on the ground in Gaza for so for purpose that they need to keep secret from Israel.
IMHO The state of cooperation between the two countries is not as good as you, Niccolo, appear to believe.
It is worth remembering that the US intelligence services have been seriously compromised by jihadist forces in the past and no-one trusts the US now. The Somalis who attacked the US army in the Clinton years were in posession of signalling codes provided by an asset within American intelligence. The Israelis would be insane to place too much confidence in the US.
In any case, Nasrallah's death is a phenomenal blow to Iran. Their ability to pressure Israel is weakening. If Iran comes to the defence of Hizbollah they risk an IsraeIi attack in their oil facilities. This would wreck the Iranian economy and quite possibly bring down the regime itself.
Netanyahu's boldness is reminiscent of Begin at his best: the attack on Saddam's nuclear facillties at Oseirak (which drew savage rebukes from the White House and infuriated George Schuktz and Caspar Weinberger). The campaign in Lebanon has been successful so far, proving that a spirited and aggressive defence pays off.
Thanks bro.
I don't envy anyone writing publicly on the subject. Like South Africa, Northern Ireland or Russia this stuff just brings out the crazy in so many people. I once seriously thought of pursuing a professional focus on the region when I was younger but was put off by the sheer nastiness of the relevant experts that I knew personally. At a temperamental level I find the blend of dogmatism and emotion terrifying.
Spot on. I frankly worry about the state of relationships within the US intelligence community re Middle Eastern politics. I had a friend in grad school who I believe went into the CIA (could never get a straight answer out of him about who he was ultimately employed by), but it was back a couple of decades ago when to hear the recruitment talks the CIA was like a friendly debating society. I worry that today, after such bizarre turns in academia, the "friendly" part of it is long gone, along even with a common position on what US interests in the region actually are, let alone how to achieve them. Or even, astonishingly, if US interests should guide intelligence work.