al-Qaida-led Jihadis Enter Aleppo (Again)

An inevitable breakout of fighting

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an al-Qaida-led force of jihadis (and who are also backed by Turkey) based in Syria’s northern Idlib province have conducted a lightning offensive towards the country’s second largest city, Aleppo. They managed to cut the main highway between the city and the Syrian capital, Damascus. It appears that they have taken the Syrian Government by surprise:

The fighting is some of the deadliest in years, with 255 people killed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Most of the dead have been combatants but the toll also includes 24 civilians, most killed in Russian air strikes.

The offensive began on Wednesday, the same day that a fragile ceasefire took effect in neighbouring Lebanon between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.

By Friday, the jihadists and their allies had wrested control of more than 50 towns and villages in the north, according to the Britain-based Observatory, in the government's biggest loss of territory in years.

They then entered western districts of Aleppo, a city of some two million people that was Syria's pre-war manufacturing hub.

"Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions... were able to enter the outskirts of the Al-Hamdaniya and New Aleppo neighbourhoods... after carrying out twin suicide attacks with two booby-trapped cars," the war monitor said.

HTS, a jihadist alliance led by Al-Qaeda's former Syria branch, shelled a student residence in the city, killing four civilians, state media reported.

Syrian and Russian warplanes launched intense air strikes on the rebel enclave around Idlib, where the jihadists are based, carrying out 23 raids, according to the Observatory.

This is a serious problem for the Syrian government:

Damascus relied on the significant amount of support that it received from both Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) during its recent civil war. Both of these forces have been tied down in Lebanon, trying to block the IDF’s offensive there. This has no doubt weakened the position of pro-Syrian government forces along the ceasefire line to the west of Aleppo. Naturally, the jihadis have taken advantage of this situation for their own benefit.

Chechen and Dagestani jihadis have provided the spearhead of this offensive, attacking under the banner of Ajnad al-Kavkaz (Soldiers of the Caucasus), alongside another Chechen jihadi group, Jaysh Muhajireen wal-Ansar.

These Chechen jihadis are not too fond of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and especially Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

I don’t know how critical the situation is just yet. What I do know is that Hamas’ October 7th raid on Israel has left large parts of Syria exposed to jihadi attacks, with this one being by far the largest since the conflict began last year.