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cheers for this. Its almost impossible to understand what the state of the war actually is, but I thought it was highly dubious they claimed to retake 3000 sqkm in 48 hours. Is that really true?
Bear in mind, Russia CANT lose this war. No matter what the outcomes or consequences. It is an existential threat to Russia and their fore is what it is.
I don't know what this will ultimately mean, but Russia will have to take this to the absolute end.
"much of the pro-RUS/anti-imperialist alternative media set are just as clueless as mainstream media in the West"
I stopped following Western reporting on the war almost completely (knowing just how inaccurate thier portrayal of the situation would be) and instead turned to the alternative media, trying to calibrate for thier biases. 6 months in and I have to agree with you on this. Ideology drives much of the reporting on the other side as well.
Consistently disgusted at western commentary calling the war in Ukraine a “win” - the entire eastern part of the country has been destroyed and millions of Ukrainians are (permanently?) displaced. I wonder what losing looks like.
Whoa, hold up. The dust is a very long way from being settled, even within the regions just reoccupied by the Ukrainians/NATO. Russia withdrew from those area in fairly good order, and has since been pounding the Ukraine forces. Russia knocked out electrical power to a fair chunk of Ukraine today. Better to wait a few more days, or a week or two, to see how this battle turns out. Ukraine casualties in the Kherson assault were horrific, as even the Washington Post reported. Ukraine casualties in this current offensive may be on the same scale, only this time they are of Ukraine's best forces (along with foreigners.)
To the Republicans complaining about the billions the US is sending to Ukraine I’m going to share with a private opinion from a knowledgeable European official I know Basically, he starts off smiling and saying the US are “absolutely ruthless” with regard to the Ukraine war 1
I responded that America is footing most of the bill for this He laughed, hard He said: win, lose or draw, the Americans win Main points -“Money” being sent to Ukraine is mostly in form of arms/weapons -They’re sent via “lend-lease” meaning Ukraine will have to pay it back 2
-It wasn’t until after Ukraine showed that it would not be occupied by Russia, that the US committed big budgets and armaments -After the war, the EU will be on the hook for rebuilding Ukraine, integrating them into the union and thus helping pay back the US lend-lease arms 3
-The US is passing off older, strategically obsolete weapons which would eventually be replaced (HIMARS) -The US didn’t part with any of their most effective and technologically advanced systems (helicopers, planes) -NATO is strengthened under US leadership 4
-America will achieve all its strategic objectives on the cheap -Europe will need to invest in their military which will mean big business for the US -Russian armaments have been exposed as inferior so Russia will lose global marketshare to the US military industry 5
-Europe is essentially decoupled from the Russian energy tit, creating a huge opportunity for US LNG -Europe falls completely out of Russian influence -The Russian military is grounded down by Ukraine with no American soldiers dying -Russia finished as a threat to US influence 6
-The US can now focus all military attention towards containing China -This is also a wakeup call for EU to take China seriously as a military adversary -EU-China relations have been set back decades in terms of cooperation 7
-The days of the US having to twist the EU’s arm to not let Huawei build their 5G system are over -China’s slow moving influence campaign into Europe is essentially done -China now needs to think much harder about invading Taiwan…both militarily and strategically (sanctions) 8
The conclusion was that whatever the actual costs to the US, it’s peanuts compared to the accomplishment of these strategic objectives which will be reaping dividends for years to come Ultimately the EU will shoulder most of the suffering while the US reaps the benefits 9
Some people are asking me for proof…it’s an analysis…and it’s by someone else You can fact check the lend-lease aspect but even if it’s not repaid it doesn’t change the main point I did a deepdive on this in May but didn’t touch much on geopolitics 10
Russians seem to have pulled competent troops from Kharkiv Oblast to focus on the south and got caught with their pants down. Major military setback for Russia, but not sure this means Ukraine is likely to prevail along the other fronts though. The size of the conflict zone is such that troops can't be present in concentration along its entirety.
Disappointed in the comments. "Who is winning" and "to whom this piece of land belongs to" stuff. The pro-Russia outlets are seething which is somewhat fun. I'm not particularly optimistic about the counter-offensive, because Russia is just like a huge, slow retard, it was unprepared in the North because many of its leaders are low IQ gruggs that are not thinking, but I doubt this will happen South too, and Ukraine also has limited resources. I don't really see how Ukraine can take big cities in Crimea or the East, but hey.
Somewhat preoccupied that there are no ideal solutions for East Europe. I don't want increase influence from either US/EU, nor Russia. I want balance of powers and us being left alone as much as possible, I literally despise each side by now.
The English papers were ecstatic yesterday. No word on the failed Kherson offensive or the raid on the ZPP of course.
I think Ukraine is currently enjoying a temporary tactical victory but I doubt they have the depth to make it "stick" once Russia gets itself organised. Still a huge embarrassment for Russia, and a tragedy for the Russians living in the "liberated settlements". Guarantee there'll be more manufactured false flags.
Nothing is certain but what you can see personally these days however:
1] The Russians withdrew in good order , which means they had staff, planning, control, not panic.
2] Offensives that consume your soldiers don't work well over time even if you have gains. See WW1 Western Front - Verdun, Somme, Passchendaele, Ludendorff 1918 offensive. These are tactical gains, what is the cost to UKR vs gains?
3] The USA is still accomplishing strategic goals on the cheap- Ukr and EU are suffering. We've isolated Europe into our creature to an extent not seen since 1945. No Chinese inroads, no rapprochement with Russia. Strategic depth gained for USA/DC in form of Western Europe.
Hit the like button and use the share button to share this across social media. Feel free to leave a comment if the mood strikes you to do so (be nice to one another!), and don't forget to subscribe if you haven't already.
I really like this kind of bare bones, bullet point post on current events. Please keep them coming.
"that can now target land bridge to Crimea" aren't they quite far from it, still?
cheers for this. Its almost impossible to understand what the state of the war actually is, but I thought it was highly dubious they claimed to retake 3000 sqkm in 48 hours. Is that really true?
Bear in mind, Russia CANT lose this war. No matter what the outcomes or consequences. It is an existential threat to Russia and their fore is what it is.
I don't know what this will ultimately mean, but Russia will have to take this to the absolute end.
Scary times.
Do you think the Ukrainians will be able to take Crimea?
"much of the pro-RUS/anti-imperialist alternative media set are just as clueless as mainstream media in the West"
I stopped following Western reporting on the war almost completely (knowing just how inaccurate thier portrayal of the situation would be) and instead turned to the alternative media, trying to calibrate for thier biases. 6 months in and I have to agree with you on this. Ideology drives much of the reporting on the other side as well.
Consistently disgusted at western commentary calling the war in Ukraine a “win” - the entire eastern part of the country has been destroyed and millions of Ukrainians are (permanently?) displaced. I wonder what losing looks like.
Whoa, hold up. The dust is a very long way from being settled, even within the regions just reoccupied by the Ukrainians/NATO. Russia withdrew from those area in fairly good order, and has since been pounding the Ukraine forces. Russia knocked out electrical power to a fair chunk of Ukraine today. Better to wait a few more days, or a week or two, to see how this battle turns out. Ukraine casualties in the Kherson assault were horrific, as even the Washington Post reported. Ukraine casualties in this current offensive may be on the same scale, only this time they are of Ukraine's best forces (along with foreigners.)
This is a fanstasic thread by
Saw this on twitter, worth repeating here:
To the Republicans complaining about the billions the US is sending to Ukraine I’m going to share with a private opinion from a knowledgeable European official I know Basically, he starts off smiling and saying the US are “absolutely ruthless” with regard to the Ukraine war 1
I responded that America is footing most of the bill for this He laughed, hard He said: win, lose or draw, the Americans win Main points -“Money” being sent to Ukraine is mostly in form of arms/weapons -They’re sent via “lend-lease” meaning Ukraine will have to pay it back 2
-It wasn’t until after Ukraine showed that it would not be occupied by Russia, that the US committed big budgets and armaments -After the war, the EU will be on the hook for rebuilding Ukraine, integrating them into the union and thus helping pay back the US lend-lease arms 3
-The US is passing off older, strategically obsolete weapons which would eventually be replaced (HIMARS) -The US didn’t part with any of their most effective and technologically advanced systems (helicopers, planes) -NATO is strengthened under US leadership 4
-America will achieve all its strategic objectives on the cheap -Europe will need to invest in their military which will mean big business for the US -Russian armaments have been exposed as inferior so Russia will lose global marketshare to the US military industry 5
-Europe is essentially decoupled from the Russian energy tit, creating a huge opportunity for US LNG -Europe falls completely out of Russian influence -The Russian military is grounded down by Ukraine with no American soldiers dying -Russia finished as a threat to US influence 6
-The US can now focus all military attention towards containing China -This is also a wakeup call for EU to take China seriously as a military adversary -EU-China relations have been set back decades in terms of cooperation 7
-The days of the US having to twist the EU’s arm to not let Huawei build their 5G system are over -China’s slow moving influence campaign into Europe is essentially done -China now needs to think much harder about invading Taiwan…both militarily and strategically (sanctions) 8
The conclusion was that whatever the actual costs to the US, it’s peanuts compared to the accomplishment of these strategic objectives which will be reaping dividends for years to come Ultimately the EU will shoulder most of the suffering while the US reaps the benefits 9
Some people are asking me for proof…it’s an analysis…and it’s by someone else You can fact check the lend-lease aspect but even if it’s not repaid it doesn’t change the main point I did a deepdive on this in May but didn’t touch much on geopolitics 10
https://unrollthread.com/t/1568614745284005892/
Bro, this is 4D chess bro, Putin is just thinking 8 steps ahead bro. Gotta retreat so you bring the enemy into your playing field bro.
Russians seem to have pulled competent troops from Kharkiv Oblast to focus on the south and got caught with their pants down. Major military setback for Russia, but not sure this means Ukraine is likely to prevail along the other fronts though. The size of the conflict zone is such that troops can't be present in concentration along its entirety.
Disappointed in the comments. "Who is winning" and "to whom this piece of land belongs to" stuff. The pro-Russia outlets are seething which is somewhat fun. I'm not particularly optimistic about the counter-offensive, because Russia is just like a huge, slow retard, it was unprepared in the North because many of its leaders are low IQ gruggs that are not thinking, but I doubt this will happen South too, and Ukraine also has limited resources. I don't really see how Ukraine can take big cities in Crimea or the East, but hey.
Somewhat preoccupied that there are no ideal solutions for East Europe. I don't want increase influence from either US/EU, nor Russia. I want balance of powers and us being left alone as much as possible, I literally despise each side by now.
The English papers were ecstatic yesterday. No word on the failed Kherson offensive or the raid on the ZPP of course.
I think Ukraine is currently enjoying a temporary tactical victory but I doubt they have the depth to make it "stick" once Russia gets itself organised. Still a huge embarrassment for Russia, and a tragedy for the Russians living in the "liberated settlements". Guarantee there'll be more manufactured false flags.
Nothing is certain but what you can see personally these days however:
1] The Russians withdrew in good order , which means they had staff, planning, control, not panic.
2] Offensives that consume your soldiers don't work well over time even if you have gains. See WW1 Western Front - Verdun, Somme, Passchendaele, Ludendorff 1918 offensive. These are tactical gains, what is the cost to UKR vs gains?
3] The USA is still accomplishing strategic goals on the cheap- Ukr and EU are suffering. We've isolated Europe into our creature to an extent not seen since 1945. No Chinese inroads, no rapprochement with Russia. Strategic depth gained for USA/DC in form of Western Europe.