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Nov 5, 2025
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Feral Finster's avatar

Russia obviously takes this threat seriously. Anyway, the Pentagon says they have plenty.

Niccolo Soldo's avatar

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david Coleman's avatar

The class system in the UK is cast in stone & time, in the early days it was based upon peasants being put to death if caught stealing minor items, what we have to remember is that the majority of the uk working class enjoy being utterly subservient in every way, why we enjoy this feeling is difficult to understand but nevertheless very true and explains why the uk aristocracy is allowed to ride completely roughshod over rules and regulations

Regardless of the stupidity of the UK working class we do have an entitlement to know how utterly corrupt and dishonest the UK aristocracy are, Andrew is only a pathetic example of the UK ruling class , what beggars belief is how the UK working class enthusiastically endorse their lies and deceit!

The latest utter nonsense is that Andrew & Fergie are demanding that they be given free Mansions when their co-conspirators have committed suicide and suffered imprisonment

https://youtu.be/L5NhMPDIozc?si=r5HXD7CSBTgAwt4n

https://youtu.be/KGfVZCLOUe0?si=4Ia68ookypqt6nf-

https://youtu.be/ktCtktlkgTs?si=gNe3nzVmAWc2y_bs

https://youtu.be/iGh_WdMfn-M?si=FmWN_H6rNZQyMlyr

the long warred's avatar

For men must have a leader? The why’s answer.

Phillip's avatar

On one dimension you are entirely correct about Mamdani's victory. He is not a substantive figure and his radicalism is a joke.

But I do not think that you are doing the situation any justice. There are plenty of other dimensions at work here.

Mamdani's political significance lies in the role that absurdity, contradiction and irrationalism can play in politics. We are definitely witnessing an American fusion of hypernormalization and Islamogauchism.

Any number of malicious players (the intelligence community, the Democrats, Muslim radicals) will reap benefits from getting Mamdani into Gracie Mansion, just as their peers in the UK did with the rise of Saddiq Khan.

Mamdani's professed socialism will also help further wreck NYC...for the eventual benefit of long-term investors who will take advantage from the next wave of dysfunction.

Spud Murphy's avatar

Islamogauchism, love it P. There is a lot of profit to be made in the ruon of a country, or rather, city.

Phillip's avatar

The term "Islamogauchism" has been around for a while. Can't take credit for it, but it fits the subject.

The financial dimension to recent developments is crucial. In the Anglosphere mass migration is increasingly a strategy to postpone insolvency at a national level.

But there are plenty of players in the oligarchies of the Global South who understand the dynamics of the bond market and real estate etc. They surely anticipate making gains from the ruin of London and New York, just as Western elites made a packet from 'block busting' in the North-East and Mid-West following desegregation. My hunch is that we may see a repeat of the 70s, when financial crises in the UK and in cities like New York were weaponised to pave the way for slash and burn economic reform. This time round the vultures will fly in from the Global South.

This may interest you. Saddiq Khan's regional ambitions.

https://youtu.be/DXPSgnDimzY?si=fVwCqZOf-f0Oe1OA

the long warred's avatar

NYC isn’t the American metropole, America itself doesn’t have one.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

"The Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) continue to make good progress on the battlefield." (Per Ben.)

If slow as molasses? Certainly slow enough to allow the U.S. to pretty easily force a head-in-sand Europe to not only realize that Russia (as opposed to the U.S.S.R. and perhaps nukes) is and always has been a *European* problem, but to start the long process of taking appropriate action.

"...that [America] cornered Russia into launching." (Per Niccolo.)

Uh...that an unserious previous *Democrat* administration allowed Putin to take his opportunity and launch, you mean.

There is something I've never been able to ascertain, even with all the expert and "expert" punditry, so I'll just ask one directly:

Niccolo, just what is Putin's Ukrainian endgame? Is it all of his precious Ur Russia, i.e. Kiev itself and a disappearance of a separate Ukrainian identity?

Tom High's avatar

He’s been pretty clear about his endgame; control of the eastern oblasts, Crimea, and a neutral (no NATO) rest of Ukraine. He has zero interest in permanent control of Kiev/western Ukraine; that would be an endless war headache for Russians, and they are not as stupid as we, or the Brits, are.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

"He has zero interest..."

Evidence?

"...Russians...are not as stupid as we..."

Right:

1,000,000 dead not as stupid.

~100 times the rate of loss as Vietnam not as stupid.

Resuscitation of NATO not as stupid.

Not as stupid as Finns and Swedes.

Loss of strategic bomber fleet not as stupid.

Causing sleepy Europe to arm up not as stupid.

Oh...you must mean not as stupid as Democrats. Full agree there!

Look, NATO should have declared victory and *disbanded* long about '93. Europe would have stood up then.

Now, the 20th century empiring anachronism Vladimir Putin of the Kievan Rus will get his Eastern Ukraine meat and reclaim Ukraine's Krushchev-gift of Crimea (Europe kicked the Russians out in...1853!!), but rump Ukraine *will* join Europe, whether in the resuscitated NATO or not, and Russians have no right to demand otherwise.

Who is stupid again?

Tom High's avatar

Evidence? Read ‘Provoked’, by Scott Horton. You’ll have more than enough evidence, all footnote sourced.

Half your bullet points (NATO, etc.) are fallacious; the rest are, well… stupid.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

I've read that *history* book. Imo, Horton is almost completely right about the *history*. Those damn Democrats and neocons responsible are also now *HISTORY*.

I am talking about the future.

But most importantly, Mr. High, if you engage in any more ad hominem, I will not longer engage with you.

Tom High's avatar

Go find your safe space and suck on your pacifier, you twit.

Anyone describing the incoming NYC mayor as a jihadist communist deserves massive ad hominem thrown at them; none of your lickspittle libertarian bullshit defensiveness over being called out for the foreign policy fallaciousness in your initial reply will save you.

As to not engaging further, in the words of Cowboy Curly Bell, ‘Well, …. Bye’.

the long warred's avatar

The Russians are playing their slow game, been working since the Mongols. No need for speed, no advantage in speed.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

I agree completely.

the long warred, in your opinion what is Putin's endgame? Is it 3 Eastern Ukrainian oblasts plus Crimea plus no Ukrainian membership in NATO, like everyone else seems to think?

How many ethnic Russians would that leave in rump Ukraine? In Eastern Europe as a whole? Short of NATO membership, would the Europeans arming rump Ukraine be a deal-breaker for Putin? What about European militaries *manning* the rump Ukrainian border with Russia? Must the so-called Azov "Nazis" be disbanded?

Thank you in advance, if you have the time.

the long warred's avatar

I don’t know but I would take Putin’s demands at face value.

No Zelensky.

No Azov.

No NATO

No EU.

Keep the Oblasts they annexed.

Belarus style Kiev.

Or at least tame. Weak.

If the Europeans don’t calm down he’ll take the whole thing to the Polish border, and I’m not sure the Russians can avoid taking the whole thing want to or not.

Zelensky will fight to the last Ukrainian and flee to live in the West. Probably France or England.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

What is the state/opinion of the Russian populace, or does it matter? I keep hearing his oligarchs aren't happy with him, but I put little stock in that.

Note that if he does take all of Ukraine as a Belarus twin, this reconstituted "Union of Fascist Soviet States" *will be* surrounded by NATO!

(Sorry if the use of the F word bothers.)

the long warred's avatar

I have no idea Sir.

I’m American.

The Russian slow game is how they came into being against the Mongols, later defeating the Tartars and was practiced again in Syria recently. It’s also how they spread East… really how America spread West. That’s just reading history.

Thank you for your thoughts.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

Always a pleasure, the long warred.

Royotoyo's avatar

Russia is not an oligarchy and hasn't been for about twenty years. Business is subordinate to the state and serves at its behest. As for the Russian populace, its patience is wearing thin due to the political leadership's insistence on diplomacy with the hapless, incompetent western leaders. At some point, public opinion will lead to political changes and the result will be a much more hawkish foreign policy by Russia, with or without its current leadership.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

"Business is subordinate to the state and serves at its behest."

I do not mean to offend, but that sure sounds like an anodyne description of a Fascist nation.

As for the second claim, are you saying that the Russian people are itching for more fight?

Certorius's avatar

Russian here. While at first some of the business elites were horrified about the SMO decision, very soon it became clear that the real enemy is the West which took unprecedented harsh moves against both rich and ordinary Russians. The business took notice and rallied around political leadership.

The same can be said about Ukrainians: most Russians were sympathetic to them in the first days and weeks of the war but the activity Ukrainians on the internet, speeches of the Ukrainian political class, hateful curses and death wishes from Ukrainian close relatives (probably 1/4 of the country have them, so when one calls the war civil, he has a point), and activity of the Ukrainian fraudsters who target ordinary Russians, did their job, most of the sympathy evaporated. One says that instead of often clumsy state propaganda the federal TV channels should broadcast Ukrainian section of Twitter 24/7, that will be a much more potent psychological weapon to keep the Russians involved. That said, the Russians prefer a peace deal, which is shown in the number of the latest polls.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

This all seems true to me.

Are Ukrainians and Russians, no matter where they call home, or otherwise mix, destined for conflict forever?

Are they past the point of return, so to speak?

the long warred's avatar

Venezuela made imbecilic noises and gestures about taking Guyana - and it’s oil , and the offshore oil is enormous. So Venezuela- which also bumbled into our politics and possibly a trap is now being informed by actions exactly where matters stand. No one misses drug traffickers.

It’s also a good shakeout for the American military, whose Flag officers are learning what the Chain of Command means.

Certorius's avatar

It seems like Russia would be pretty much content with gaining Donbass. Ukraine is already weakened, it's extremely poor, demographically abysmal country, which will turn on itself when the war ends (people are angry about the massive scale press-ganging etc). Europe doesn't even want to pay for Ukraine' war effort, so any hope that it will pay for its reconstruction is delusional. So there is almost zero chance for Ukraine's revanchism for decades. It's much more likely that Ukraine will repeat the route of Georgia.

Russia gained a lot of land in Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Sumy region - about 2.6 thousand sq km and counting. It's probably enough to swap it for the rest of Donbass. Zelensky is strongly against meanwhile. Why? Most probably because freezing of the current frontline may appear temporary, while any territory exchange means Ukraine basically accepts defeat. Then, Zelensky will have a lot of angry questions about why didn't he sign a peace accord two or three years earlier when Ukraine was at the peak of its military successes, when the conditions might have been more generous and hundreds of thousands lives were not lost.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

Thank you for this, Certorius.

Your predictions sound like a reasonable and possible future.

I hope for the best peace possible for all Peoples regardless of each one's past mistakes.

Wim Roffel's avatar

There is at the moment a lot of discussion on the endgame in Ukraine and whether the West will - by refusing any agreement - force Russia to deal with an unstable situation where it has to decide whether to occupy the fiercely anti-Russian West of Ukraine.

https://johnhelmer.net/the-three-stages-of-trump-war-begin-with-the-fifth-column/

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/10/a-few-thoughts-about-the-russian-end-game-in-ukraine-and-the-risk-of-losing-the-peace.html

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/10/english-outsider-on-solving-ukraine.html

Soon Zelensky will have to admit the fall of Pokrovsk. It will be interesting to see how the world wlll react.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

Thank you, Wim, especially for the links!

the long warred's avatar

Russia will be fortunate to be able to stop at the Bug, never mind Dnipro.

Spud Murphy's avatar

Trump's monstrous ego will kill his remaining presidency. He's off doing high foreign policy with dubious gains and gibs calculated to boost his ego like Abes putter and some Korean bauble. The domestic economy is why he was elected and his Treasury Sec Bessant is wildly out of touch, mistaking catty insults on TV v serious people like Musk and Dimitriev for efficacy.

DJT does not appear to realise that a Dem dominated Congress, both House and Senate can and will impeach him. Dems will run on that. Murkowski, Collins and possibly more will vote present.

He needs to

Sort out shutdown super fast.

Concentrate on domestic affairs.

Tell Homan and ICE to concentrate on illegals with criminal records, not just low hanging fruit.

Begin serious fundraising for mid terms.

Stop this nonsense with Venezuela and instead advise all states with involvement in drugs to tax their remittances.

Assist and be seen at assist Orban,Fico, Babis and real European allies.

State US regards Ukraine as a Euro issue.

Legislate for in person ID proven voting for citizens only. Mail in by application only, with clear trail of possession. Make vote tampering 15 year fed jail time.

Reverse the efficient Dhillon and hapless Bondi offices. Bondi is worse than useless.

Call bluff of Taylor Greene and Massie by urging victims of Epstein to release their list of perpetrators

Finally, fire the entire useless RNC.

Feral Finster's avatar

Trump does not act like a man with nothing to hide regarding Epstein. Moreover, any Epstein release would potentially expose Israeli sources and methods.

Spud Murphy's avatar

His name has not come up beyond photos with Epstein and Maxwell, mostly at formal functions. He was an NY socialite who was pictured with everyone from Mike Tyson to Mike Bloomberg. I'd be curious why you think he'd be implicated? The Israeli angle is very interesting as Maxwells father has an Israeli state funeral as an asset, formal or informal.

Feral Finster's avatar

Google "Trump - Epstein connections". The buddyhood goes beyond a few photos.

Anyway, Trump was all for releasing the files, until Bondi told him that he was prominently featured int hose files.

Again, this is hardly the way that a man who had nothing to hide would act.

Feral Finster's avatar

This assumes that Trump is smarter than he is. Trump in fact is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

So, this is the repository of TDS.

Who knew?

Tom High's avatar

We don’t ever know the spark which creates a radical change revolution. While I tend to agree the NYC election won’t be it, it might create the environment for future sparks that will. Americans don’t do socialism well; until they realize it’s the only option left to avoid abject poverty for the masses. We’ll see.

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/11/04/chris-hedges-trumps-greatest-ally-is-the-democratic-party/?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=9074d933-16aa-450e-9dc3-bcc33a1e2195

the long warred's avatar

🤣🤣🤣🤣 Keep the Hope going Sir !!

Any socialism will likely be Nationalistic Socialism, are you SURE you want that?

Tom High's avatar

You hit the trifecta of stupid: emojis, all caps, and logical fallacy.

Congrats!

the long warred's avatar

That all?

I’m glad you’re happy.

Don’t worry, our Nation 🇺🇸 will have socialism.

The glass will be half full,

Also half empty…

Tom High's avatar

Your cute snark needs serious work. Maybe those RFK and Hegseth ilk substacks in your reading list are responsible for your brain rot.

Phillip's avatar

FDR blended bits of Left and Right state-socialism, using the Left to protect American capital (above all the American partners in IG Farben) from radicalism from below. This worked well enough till the fall from power of the CPSU (Roosevelt's allies). The post-Cold War era of managed decline destabilised the US internally to the point where we are now.

Timothy Andrew Staples/pop122's avatar

"Right state-socialism" is an oxymoron, the type of obfuscating language that is part and parcel of the modern Left since Wilson-the-WOAT, including of course the always confusing simpleton, FDR.

Red's avatar

I recently came across this analysis of the Ukraine War, courtesy.of American academia:

Russian Style, or What Twerking Air Cadets and ‘Gay’ Propaganda Tell Us About Putin’s War in Ukraine

Many social scientists were taken aback by Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in February of 2022, but those aware of cultural trends in the Russian Federation can discern the connection between Putin’s restyling of Russian gender and sexuality and the war in Ukraine. Since rising to power in 1999, Putin has overhauled Russian citizenship so that young, sexually-available, heterosexual women have become the country’s ideal citizens, and queer men, its scapegoats. This talk links the 2018 viral video made by air cadets in the city of Ulianovsk to Russia’s infamous 2013 ban on “gay propaganda,” arguing that the inherent contradiction in both reveals the roots of Putin’s Ukrainophobia and military aggression.

https://events.williams.edu/event/russian-style-or-what-twerking-air-cadets-and-gay-propaganda-tell-us-about-putins-war-in-ukraine/

the long warred's avatar

🤣 Like London but with guns not machetes.

this will show dAddY who controls the Trust Fund!

J.G Carbone's avatar

I'm back and ready to read the entire backlog I've missed. Happy to be back

Canibal's avatar

"to be a friend is fatal". Bolsonaro's idiotic son that went to Constantinople to lobby for actions against Brazil is finding this out the hard way. The Sultan's court is very confusing. The Sublime Port (Rubio/Landau's DoS) is usually at odds with the Eunuchs (Bessent, Greenfell), who also fight among themselves. Then you have the Sultan's sons and extended family & friends. The Gulf playbook of just buying access via business dealings directly with the latter, albeit not perfect, seems to be the most successful.

America is more than just 'agreement non capable', it's an Empire in which every major faction plays its own Turbo America game. Not only in terms of enormous power but also lack of consequences after fuck-ups.

The stupid Iranians and less-stupid Russians have spent the last 30 years dealing with this. Even Mr. Putin, the Japanese and the Koreans are finding out how misguided they were when dealing with the Orange Sultan earlier this year. A victory for the diplomacy of large countries that deal more pragmatically with the Great Satan - be it the trumpian or GAE versions - such Xi, Modi, Erdogan and even the drunken commie Lula.

the long warred's avatar

America is a Federation that rarely unites and only briefly.

However Trump’s base and the American public at large don’t care about foreign countries or their fate. Nor are we set up to, nor is it in our interests.

Trump is for making America a manufacturing powerhouse again, he always has been since the 1980s. That’s what his base cares about as well, even the Dems want this, at least their voters.

Foreign policy has been turned to our advantage.

Everything is about REE, oil, manufacturing plants here… you want Trump’s foreign policy and what we voted for? Make peace unless you can’t, if you can’t walk away.

And walk away anyway.

NATO should have ended 35 years ago with the Warsaw Pact.

We’re a nationalist country that’s moved firmly into what’s good for the nation and Ukraine isn’t relevant.

We’re reverting to historical American Norms.

Ukraine along with the Mideast and Taiwan are traps Trump isn’t falling into, as so many of his predecessors did.

We’re Americans, not Westerners. The rest of you should look to your own interests, indeed always should have…

🇺🇸We’re reverting to historical American Norms.

Andrew's avatar

I like these “quick reflections” posts. They’re more organized and substantial than a tweet, but require less effort than a Saturday Review.

I can also see fragments of this post within your recent tweets. I like that model: hash out your thoughts on Twitter, refine it as an article.