Random Commentary 11/05/2025

NYC and Hizzoner Mamdani, Trump and Hungary, Some Interesting Analysis on the War in Ukraine

‘Spectator Politics’ is bigger than ever thanks to the interactivity of the online world. For many, it has taken the place of sports or soap operas, two other forms of entertainment escapism.

Spectator Politics tends to warp the actual reality of what is being watched and tracked and discussed. For example, last night’s New York City mayoralty election saw an immigrant Muslim from a privileged background win. The fact of the matter is that NYC politics really, really do not matter in the big scheme of things….unless you live in the Tri-State Area.

There may be some symbolic value to Mamdani’s victory, but that’s about it. Rudolph Giuliani was a wildly popular mayor of the same city, and when he ran for the GOP nomination for the Presidency, he scored a measly 1% of the vote in the primaries. New York City is a self-contained entity that is important for many reasons (finance, banking, culture, media, etc.), but its reach is actually very short.

As for Mamdani, accusations that he is a ‘crypto-Islamist’ or ‘communist’ are nonsense. He is your standard fare progressive, and standard fare progressives never fare well in the Big Apple. The story for the next few years is already written: various progressive initiatives will be launched, crime will shoot up, capital flight will take place, and he will be voted out. Americans don’t do socialism and don’t take kindly when attempts are made to experiment with it. This goes triple for the most important city in their country, and possibly in the world. A measly election will not be permitted to impede the work of the globe’s financial heart.

There are big states, and there are little states. Little states will suffer what they must, as that is the natural order. They will try to mitigate any potential suffering, and sometimes it can work (see: Switzerland), But oftentimes it doesn’t.

No foreign leader stood by Donald Trump in the dark days of 2020 than did Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Hungary went as far as to provide a safe haven for US conservatives via CPAC events and even hosting them in various think tanks. Hungary bent over backwards to show that it was a loyal friend to American conservatives, something which I warned them to not invest too much time and effort into, because they payback might never come.

Hungary has been under attack for over a decade now, and these attacks have come from multiple centres of power: the EU, western media and NGOs, and US Congress, just to name a few. Hungary has managed to weather most of these attacks, but the economic punishment that it has endured has certainly hurt it, and voters feel the pinch. There is a national election coming soon, so one would think that purported allies of Hungary’s Fidesz-led government would come to its rescue, but being a small power means that its interests can be safely overlooked by those with more weight.

The latest US sanctions targeting Russian oil and gas come into effect on November 21st, and these ones have some bite to them. Both Slovakia and Hungary are scrambling to secure exemptions from the USA, as both are heavily reliant on Russian oil imports through the Druzhba pipeline that crosses through Ukraine. Last week, Trump was asked if Hungary asked for an exemption and if they would get one. Trump replied “Yes, no”. Orban is headed to Washington DC I believe next week to make one last-ditch effort to secure an exemption. For now, great power politics regarding the war in Ukraine trump any friendly relations that Orban has cultivated with President Trump and #MAGA over the past few years.

The immediate problem for Hungary is that any other supplier is much more expensive, even if the capacity is there (which they argue isn’t always the case):

As a result, when crude prices rise, that “doesn’t have a major impact on the end product prices,” he said. What it would mean, though, is “declining profit margins” for Hungary’s main oil importer MOL, Pletser said, and fewer tax revenues for Budapest.

In reality, “the most problematic financial aspect of rejecting Russian oil is related to ... the Hungarian budget,” said Ilona Gizińska, a Hungary expert at the Centre for Eastern Studies think tank, which currently faces a yawning deficit. There’s no “political will” to quit Russian oil, she said, precisely because it is up to $30 per barrel cheaper than alternative supplies.

Fidesz might become another casualty of the war in Ukraine, as more expensive oil will be a big hit to its budget, and to the cost of living for Magyars…something that the opposition in Hungary will be happy to pounce on.

It’s not always easy to find good analyses regarding the war in Ukraine due to the preponderance of partisanship that dominates the topic. This appears on all fronts: military, economic, and geopolitical. Sorting the wheat from the chaff is a frequent task for those of us trying to keep up with the conflict.

Ben Aris provides us with an interesting take on Kirill Dmitriev’s recent failed trip to Washington DC:

Dmitriev goes to Washington

Dmitriev is Putin’s special envoy on Ukraine, and it seems that he received more than just a cold shoulder:

He was hoping to do the rounds and persuade the White House to back off, but it ended up that almost no one would see him. Moreover, after he gave interviews to CNN and Fox News, he got roasted in public by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who called him a “Russian propagandist” which is fair enough as that is what he is.

Ben on Trump’s constant flip-flopping regarding Russia and Ukraine:

Currently, the Trump administration is swinging back and forth on Russia like a Newton’s cradle toy. As I have argued this month, Trump is pursuing a minerals diplomacy where he is attaching minerals deals to anything foreign policy related. We have a piece on the site today covering the latest deal with Kazakhstan (which has a lot of minerals unlike Ukraine which doesn’t have any rare earth metals at all).

That is why Trump has been so soft on Russia: it has the most rare earth metals (REMs) after China. It’s the big prize and Trump has been reluctant to hit the Kremlin with sanctions as it will spoil his chances of doing business with Russia. That appears to have changed and by refusing to compromise, it could be argued that Putin has pushed Trump over a line – these sanctions are significant – the first ever since Trump took office – as they suggest that Trump has finally given up on any hope of cutting a deal with Putin.

Ben understands that Ukraine is an existential matter for Russia:

Putin doesn’t care. He would like to do a deal with Trump. He could do a deal with Trump. But he’s not going to compromise on Ukraine. He really does see it as an existential threat. Dmitriev made this point explicitly in his remarks on US TV. Putin is not going to back down. And despite signalling early on there was some limited wiggle room on territories, I assume that he hoped he could get Trump to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy into making concessions and that didn’t work.

It nearly did work. That was Trump’s “final offer” proposal in April at a London summit, where Trump pushed very hard for a deal that was basically a Putin shopping list of demands. Zelenskiy refused. The talks have gone nowhere since, despite a lot of drama.

Bottomline is Putin doesn’t care. He has already wrecked his relations with Europe forever and even if he got some sanctions relief from Trump, most of the sanctions on Russia will remain there for generations. The Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) continue to make good progress on the battlefield.

Europe can’t continue to fund Ukraine:

At the same time Europe has run out of money for Ukraine and the only hope of funding the war in 2026 is the Reparation Loans which are now stuck in committee until at least December, due to Belgium’s objectives. If Putin is betting that he could win this war, it doesn’t look like such a bad bet.

At the end of the day Trump’s threats are empty. He can’t send Ukraine Tomahawks as they have to be fired from a ship and Ukraine has no navy. The oil sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil won’t work either as between them they account for two thirds of all Russia’s oil exports, some 4.4mn barrels a day. If you really remove that much oil from the market, you will have a huge price spike and Trump won’t tolerate an oil price spike. Mid-term elections are not that far away. Oil experts say it will only take a few months for the Russians, Chinese and Indians to find some sort of workaround. They have in every case of new sanctions so far.

Ben’s concludes that Trump has thrown has hands up in the air and wants to put this entire conflict on Europe’s plate so that America can walk away from a war that it cornered Russia into launching.