A Little Bit of Everything

Russian Ballistic Missiles, War Crimes Arrest Warrants, What I Saw in Brussels, Grim Germany, Romanian Surprise

A lame duck government in the USA means that we get to witness quite a lot of prognostication of what is to come, and threats of what “will” be done. Most of these can safely be ignored, as everyone is waiting to see just what the second Trump administration has in store for Ukraine, a conflict that the 45th/47th President of the United States has publicly promised to end as quickly as possible.

The ‘fun’ part is that he has yet to take office, which allows the lame duck Biden regime to present him with a set of fait accomplis that he will have to deal with upon moving back into the White House. These last minute policy changes will serve to shape the position of the US-led West as it seeks to negotiate a (temporary) end to the conflict, making Trump’s projected efforts all the more difficult to conduct. Biden’s predictable about-face on permitting the use of US-supplied missiles to strike further into Russian territory is the best example of the spoiling effect that US foreign policy planners produce on the battlefield.

What made this latest western escalation more interesting was Russia’s rapid response in the form of a new ICBM known as the “Oreshnik” (hazel tree) that was launched at a military industrial facility in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro:

The US military said the Russian missile’s design was based on the design of Russia’s longer-range RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

The new missile was experimental and Russia likely possessed only a handful of them, officials said.

The Pentagon said the missile was fired with a conventional warhead but that Moscow could modify it if it wanted.

“It could be refitted to certainly carry different types of conventional or nuclear warheads,” Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said.

…….

US and UK sources indicated that they believed the missile fired on Dnipro was an experimental nuclear-capable, intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which has a theoretical range of below 3,420 miles (5,500km). That is enough to reach Europe from where it was fired in south-western Russia, but not the US.

Ukraine’s air force initially said the missile was an ICBM. While launching an IRBM sent a less threatening signal, the incident could still set off alarms and Moscow notified Washington briefly ahead of the launch, according to US officials.

Per Putin:

The Russian president acknowledged in a television address to the nation that Moscow had struck a Ukrainian military facility with a new ballistic missile and said it was called “Oreshnik” (the hazel).

He said its deployment “was a response to US plans to produce and deploy intermediate and short-range missiles”, and that Russia would “respond decisively and symmetrically” in the event of an escalation.

……..

“I believe that the United States made a mistake by unilaterally destroying the treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in 2019 under a far-fetched pretext,” the Russian president said, referring to the intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty.

(Click here to see an amazing video of the target being hit)

The message was two-fold:

1. to the USA, as Putin described above

2. to the Europeans to show them that they have no defense against such an attack

This Russian retaliation was intended to show that they would match the western escalation, showing that they fully intend to achieve their stated war aims no matter what it takes. It also set off a flurry of alarmist reports that the world is headed towards a nuclear exchange, but I am very confident that this is not the case. This escalation was as much about sending a message to Trump as it was about continuing the bleeding of Russia, the core purpose of this conflict in the USA’s overall strategy.

The Russians are no fools, and do not expect the incoming administration to change much in terms of its Russia policy:

Lavrov in the wide-ranging interview on state-owned channel Russia-1 articulated that Moscow's view is that Washington's stance on the Ukraine conflict is unlikely to change significantly even under the Trump administration.

He explained that the United States will essentially always seek to dominate areas which fall under NATO influence, and that Trump too is likely to do the same, despite campaign promises to rapidly achieve a peace deal ending the conflict.

Ultimately, Lavrov's position is that it doesn't matter who is president of the US. Below is what he said according to Russian media translation:

"I have no doubt that they will want to keep these processes under their control… Washington’s attitude towards Ukrainian affairs and European affairs will not change in principle, in the sense that Washington will always strive to keep under its watchful eye everything that happens in the areas near NATO and the NATO area itself."

The top Russian diplomat was also asked about recent widespread reporting that Trump is mulling concrete plans to 'freeze' the conflict while pressuring Kiev to give up its aspirations to join the NATO alliance for at least 20 years.

"Some [Western politicians] have started to look more soberly at the Ukrainian situation and say, ‘what’s lost is lost, let’s somehow freeze this entire thing.’ Yet… they still suggest having a truce along the contact line for ten years. These would be the same Minsk accords in a new wrapping, or even worse," Lavrov said. The Kremlin's position is that Minsk was a sham, and was simply used to buy time while the West armed Ukraine.

"The Minsk accords were final. They were about a small part of Donbass, to be honest. But everything collapsed because [the Kiev regime] categorically did not want to grant this part of Donbass – which would have remained part of Ukraine – special status, primarily in the form of the right to speak their native language," Lavrov explained further.

Lavrov has in the past publicly described the USA as “agreement non-capable”, which is a serious indictment. It leads me to question how Russia can enter into negotiations if it believes that it is impossible for the Americans to stick to an agreement.

On the ground, the tempo of the Russian advance in Southwestern Donetsk continues to pick up:

Will winter come to the rescue of the UAF?

Arrest Warrants for Bibi, Gallant, and Hamas’ Deif

The International Criminal Court at The Hague (ICC) has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Premier Bibi Netanyahu, its ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and just to create the appearance of balance, it has also issued one for Hamas’ Mohammed Deif.

Bibi now joins Vladimir Putin as a national leader who is accused of war crimes by the UN’s body tasked with bringing justice to those on the receiving end. Like Putin, Bibi will never sit in the dock at The Hague, and this is entirely due to American protection. Making matters more interesting is the fact that many western governments have publicly stated that they will adhere to international treaties and arrest Bibi if he lands on their soil. France has indicated that they will arrest him, as has Canada, and many more American allies.

Here’s the real fun part: the Americans are threatening to sanction those involved at The Hague in issuing these arrest warrants targeting Bibi and Gallant:

US President Joe Biden blasted the ICC’s charges as “outrageous”. The White House said it “fundamentally rejects” the Court’s order.

Washington is working with Israel to make a list of ICC officials whom they plan to sanction.

……..

Some far-right members of Congress have gone even further. In response to the ICC’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu this November, Republican Senator Tom Cotton threatened a military assault on the Hague.

Cotton referenced a law approved by the US government in 2002, known as the Hague Invasion Act (officially called the American Servicemembers Protection Act of 2002). This legislation “permits” the White House to unilaterally send troops to the Hague, in the Netherlands, to physically remove any officials from the United States or its allies who face justice at the ICC.

The Hague Invasion Act allows for a surreal scenario in which the USA invades a long-standing ally to shut down a court procedure against two individuals who are not American.

I am not going to discuss the merits of the case against Bibi and Gallant beyond saying that if we apply existing precedents to them, then there definitely is a case that can be made against them. This is a very, very long process, which means that we will have a lot of time to discuss it.

More importantly (at least to me), the circus that has resulted from these issued warrants has severely impacted the credibility of the US-led “rules-based order”. The Americans pushed the hardest to get the ICC to issue a warrant against Vladimir Putin, and have now turned around to threaten that very same institution for ordering Bibi’s arrest on war crimes charges. America is The Boss, but everyone can see the hypocrisy here, including its closest allies. The few remaining states who wrongly viewed the USA as an impartial power on these matters no longer do so, seeing them as partisan actors on the world stage. Even though all people are hypocrites and even though all states engage in hypocritical actions, no one likes hypocrisy.

On the charges:

The charges of the court against Netanyahu are severe. The three-judge panel unanimously said that he and Gallant are “co-perpetrators for committing the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare, and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.

The judges also “found reasonable grounds to believe that they bear criminal responsibility” … “for the war crime of intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.” The charges are also backed by the work of the International Court of Justice, which has found that it is “plausible” that Israel has committed acts in Gaza that violate the Genocide Convention.

If arrested, Netanyahu would go through a trial, and he could then be acquitted, or convicted. In the latter case, Netanyahu would join the ranks of leaders considered perpetrators of crimes against humanity, such as Charles Taylor of Liberia, Hissène Habré of Chad, Saddam Hussein of Iraq, Augusto Pinochet of Chile, Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia, Radovan Karadžić of Serbia, Idi Amin of Uganda, Pol Pot of Cambodia, Joseph Stalin of the former Soviet Union, Mao Zedong of China, and Adolf Hitler of Germany.

As mentioned, Bibi, like Putin, will not be sitting in the dock at The Hague any time soon. However, these charges do harm him in terms of his own legitimacy, and they severely restrict his ability to travel outside of Israel. The greater harm has been leveled against the so-called “rules-based order”, as Israel does not care for global opinion so long as it has the protection of the USA.

Brussels and the “EU-Critical” Scene

As many of you have already read, I participated in a conference last week in Brussels where I spoke and also took part in a panel to discuss the Culture War and how it will impact geopolitics in Europe and beyond.

This was my second appearance at an MCC event, and I am truly grateful that they invited a lunatic like me back for a second time. The crux of my speech was to put current events into a larger historical and geopolitical context, informing the audience and my colleagues that pinning hopes on groups like BRICS to offset American clumsiness is a wrong strategy. I proceeded to explain to everyone that at present there is no “multipolar order”, even though there are moves being made to use BRICS and/or the SCO to try and create such a climate.

I also did my usual song and dance about how the EU needs to get its shit together as a bloc and not be led by the nose by the USA, as the Americans are in the extractive phase of their imperial arc. I then went on to lay out how Trump’s victory does present opportunities for Europe, but that “America First” means precisely what it says, and that there will be downsides to it too (industrial/economic realignment to favour the USA being the best example).

Most other panelists were onside with respect to calling for Europe to pursue a more independent strategy, but there was a strong cohort of Eastern Europeans who, with total justification, are in living fear of the Russians. Two Ukrainian journalists expressed this fear during a Q&A session, with one stating that Ukrainians worry that Trump will do to them what Biden did to Afghanis in Afghanistan.

One of the things that I like most about MCC events is that there is ideological diversity, meaning that the audience is not hearing the same thing over and over again, allowing for debates to follow afterwards. Some participants were unintentionally funny, with one academic from Austria praising the UK Conservatives for reasons that I still have not managed to figure out, and elevating Margaret Thatcher to the level of a figure that should be emulated on the continent today. An English academic made a cogent point about migration and assimilation, rhetorically asking what these migrants should assimilate into since the elites continue to deconstruct (always negatively) what their nations are and how they are defined.

I am proud to report that my segment was very well-received (although not unanimously), and that the vast majority of the questions during our panel were directed to yours truly.

Germany - The Sick Man of Europe

The above shows recently announced job cuts in Europe’s most important country: Germany. This was shared before Thyssenkrupp announced that it will soon lay off 11,000 workers:

DUESSELDORF, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Thyssenkrupp's (TKAG.DE) steel business plans to cut some 40% of its workforce over the coming years, it announced on Monday in the latest painful overhaul of a German industrial giant, with workers promising fierce resistance.

Germany's largest steelmaker, a division of Thyssenkrupp AG, is under pressure from cheaper Asian competitors, high power prices and a weakening global economy, leading to operating losses in four of the past five years.

Under the restructuring, Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe (TKSE), which has a workforce of 27,000, said it would cut 11,000 jobs in total - 5,000 of which would be axed by 2030 and another 6,000 shed through spin-offs or divestitures.

The goal is to reduce personnel costs by some 10% on average in the coming years.

More bad news:

Germany's industrial star has been fading in recent months as production slows, foreign demand ebbs and costs rise.

Other big German companies are considering shutting down factories. Last week, workers and management at carmaker Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) held a third round of crunch talks over pay cuts and possible factory shutdowns in Germany.

Earlier this month, Thyssenkrupp wrote down the value of its steel division by another 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion), blaming the sector's worsening outlook.

TKSE is now valued at 2.4 billion euros in the group's books, less than half what it was worth two years.

These numbers don’t tell the whole story. For one, other companies plan to announce mass layoffs soon. Secondly, each layoff in the automotive industry means that another 4-5 people will be laid off in the secondary and tiertiary tiers as well, as these suppliers will lose contracts from the big producers.

I was with a friend from Hamburg yesterday who told me that the mood in Germany is very grim, much worse than it was a little over twenty years ago when the country was experiencing an economic crisis. In fact, every single person from Germany that I have spoken to these past few months have landed on the same page: Germany isn’t what it used to be. When you factor in an economy in crisis with severe issues regarding migration, the naturally conservative Germans will beging to seek answers outside of the traditional ruling parties.

Romanian Surprise!

Calin Georgescu took pole position in Romania’s two-stage Presidential election by coming first in the preliminary round of voting, meaning that he and the second place candidate will face off against one another on December 8th to decide who will be the country’s next President.

I am not going to pretend that I know much about Georgescu. What I will say is that despite being an Eastern NATO rampart (alongside Poland) against Russia, the pandemic, inflation, and general fatigue with the existing ruling parties have led many Romanians to vote for a populist option. This IS a continent-wide trend.

Naturally, establishment media smells a Russian hand in this surprise:

Călin Georgescu barely registered in national opinion polls, didn’t take part in big TV debates, and doesn’t even belong to a political party. But he’s leading the race to become Romania’s next president. 

……..

At stake is the stewardship of a pivotal member of the Western alliance at a critical time. Ukraine and its allies are holding out against the forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin, conscious that Donald Trump will be taking office in the United States in January and has pledged to end the war within a day.

Until now, Romania has played a supportive role in the West’s backing for Ukraine, opening the Port of Constanţa as a vital route to ship Ukrainian grain exports out and send military supplies in. The war has also raised the strategic importance of the Mihail Kogălniceanu air base on the Black Sea, which is on course to become NATO’s largest.

But all that could change if Georgescu takes charge. 

Silver-haired, slim and clean-shaven, Georgescu spent much of his career in officialdom, specializing in agricultural affairs. Indeed, food policy has loomed large in his politics, and he has called for the country to be more self-sufficient in both farm and energy output.

In Romania he became active in nationalist politics and was mentioned as a potential prime ministerial candidate for the hard-right AUR party. Like several other leading right-wing radicals in Europe, including France’s Jordan Bardella and Britain’s Nigel Farage, Georgescu has won a mass following on social media, which is where he appears to have mounted his campaign for the presidency this year. 

Your standard fare EU populist:

In many ways, Georgescu fits the mold of the radical right-wing populist in 2024. He speaks plainly, shuns Western orthodoxy, is loathed by mainstream media, and has sounded more than friendly toward Russia.

Among Europe’s former Communist states, Romania has historically been one of the most skeptical toward Moscow, but Georgescu’s enthusiasm for Putin seems not to have cost him at the polls. Putin shows he loves his country, Georgescu has said, adding that Romania could do with some Russian wisdom. 

He has also criticized the EU; claimed that NATO would never intervene to fight for Romania if it were attacked; and called for an end to the war in Ukraine, arguing that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is bad for his country. Meanwhile, the U.S. ballistic missile defense system housed at the Deveselu military base in southern Romania is a matter of national “shame,” Georgescu has argued, and promotes conflict. 

Romania is generally anti-Russian due to historical reasons, but not as radically as the Poles, Balts, and Finns are. Romania has benefitted from Euro-Atlantic integration in many sectors, so the notion that the country will flip if Georgescu somehow miraculously manages to sneak into office are very far-fetched.

Only Eastern Europe and the Balkans can produce this type of character:

He has described the 1989 revolution that ended decades of Communist rule as a coup d’état used by the West to steal Romania’s resources, and claims the country is now enslaved by the West.

He was investigated by prosecutors for claiming in 2022 that Ion Antonescu, Romania’s World War II prime minister who facilitated the Holocaust, and Corneliu Zelea Codreanu — another violent, antisemitic nationalist — were heroes.

Georgescu has also embraced a selection of conspiracy theories and wears his religious beliefs on his sleeve, playing to the country’s Orthodox Christian core electorate.

In 2020 he posted a video of himself bathing in cold water, saying it was the best vaccine against coronavirus. In a 2024 podcast he said Covid doesn’t exist, that no one has ever seen the virus, and that “the only real science is Jesus Christ.”  

A political maverick and populist without a party to back him, he will find it very, very tough to win on December 8th.